Winter Meetings thread

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would think Shaw has to be in the deal. He seems like a guy the Astros would want. But what else goes. He suggested prospect haul. 

I do not. I'm not saying, predicting or mocking a trade, but if you want two names I think the Astros like, I'll spitball:

• Kevin Alcantara - They have a history of tall, big bodied outfielders. specifically at CF (i.e. George Springer, Jose Siri). They are willing to trade some defense at times for power. Alcantara has real pull side power and Crawford boxes loom. As much as I'm a Caissie stan, we have to accept that Alcantara may offer higher upside in the OF due to position. He can handle CF for a while
• Jordan Wicks - Wicks is a LHP who gets a lot of ground ball action using his changeup. He's successfully pitched labbed his fastball a bit and I think the Astros would like some controllable arms (they're considering moving Valdez). 

If the Cubs do trade with the Astros here, I'd expect those names in the conversation. Will it happen that way? Who knows? But thinking like the Astros who likely want to add OF'ers, and play into the Crawford boxes offensively, while staying away from them when their on defense...those are guys I think they'd talk about.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If they bring Bregman back they're pretty covered at 2B/3B/SS.  I think they'd be more focused on 1B and the OF.

So Cassie? Alcantara? We can always give them Bellinger😬 too. Just curious as to what a haul would look like for them. Cassie, Birdsell+? 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I do not. I'm not saying, predicting or mocking a trade, but if you want two names I think the Astros like, I'll spitball:

• Kevin Alcantara - They have a history of tall, big bodied outfielders. specifically at CF (i.e. George Springer, Jose Siri). They are willing to trade some defense at times for power. Alcantara has real pull side power and Crawford boxes loom. As much as I'm a Caissie stan, we have to accept that Alcantara may offer higher upside in the OF due to position. He can handle CF for a while
• Jordan Wicks - Wicks is a LHP who gets a lot of ground ball action using his changeup. He's successfully pitched labbed his fastball a bit and I think the Astros would like some controllable arms (they're considering moving Valdez). 

If the Cubs do trade with the Astros here, I'd expect those names in the conversation. Will it happen that way? Who knows? But thinking like the Astros who likely want to add OF'ers, and play into the Crawford boxes offensively, while staying away from them when their on defense...those are guys I think they'd talk about.

I thought Shaw because of the Crawford Boxes. I like your options better. 

[Dfan25]

There seems to be a lot of Christian Walker / Yankees smoke   Would think Bellinger would still be on the table for them at CF .

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I thought Shaw because of the Crawford Boxes. I like your options better. 

Shaw has a toe in stance and while he can pull the ball, he's more push. He went oppo 43% of the time last year in Triple-A and pulled 30% of the time. If you want "red flag in the data" for Shaw, this is one. In theory, you want pull - oppo home runs just aren't the game. Now, we can say that Shaw is uniquely primed for oppo power, but let's put ourselves in the Astros shoes:

Is Shaw, a guy who's approach and set up is designed to go away from your one big advantage the guy you're targeting? I mean, maybe! Maybe you think you can retool that but maybe that's not you. Especially if you're going to just go get Bregman back. 

I don't want to entirely horsefeathers on this idea that they'd want Shaw. But if I'm taking a moment and being Houston, I don't think Matt Shaw is the guy I want the most. Which is weird, because as the Cubs, he's probably the guy I'm most confident about moving forward. But I admit I could be a bit biased here in that I like Shaw.

But this also is why I think the Cubs and the Astros fit well. I think the Cubs are most concerned with keeping Shaw. I think the Astros might be less concerned with getting Shaw.

[Bertz]

Vibes wise the article here really makes this feel like it has a chance to happen.  Even if it's not Tucker I'm starting to let myself think the team might consider something big

Quote

 

“Absolutely,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said Tuesday, speaking broadly about the club’s trading outlook this winter. “The term you’ll hear on that is the marginal value of a win. Going from 85 to 87 is really, really important. That might be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

“Going from 75 to 77 wins, not that important. You’re still a high-70s team and not likely to make the playoffs within those win frames. You’re going to put more leverage on those additional wins (when) they’re going to change the potential outcome for your team. When you do that, you’re willing to pay more for those. So, yeah, I think that definitely goes into the calculus.”

When asked if the Cubs are now firmly in a cycle of contention where they’re willing to trade future wins for current wins, Hawkins didn’t hesitate.

“That’s correct,” he said.

 

 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree that Hoyer is a mess. He is exploring avenues to improve the team. He is involved in several scenarios. He should be. In years past he was criticized for sitting in his hands and now this year because the Cubs come up in several scenarios you are suggesting he is a mess. No matter what he does he gets criticized. Personally I am glad to hear the Cubs are involved in many things. I do worry about him actually making the right move. But right now I wouldn’t call him a mess. 

I didn't say he's a mess,  I said the roster was a mess and has no real direction right now.

They have an obvious need of upgrading the offense but have every position tied to a contract or team control, and the only players being rumored in deals right now are possibly their better offensive hitters in Suzuki, Bellinger,  and Hoerner(Mariners).

Their two top offensive prospects in Shaw and Caissie may not be quite ready but are as of now blocked.

 

I dont believe there are many options to improve on who they already have via FA outside of Santander and Alonso, plus adding them would mean trading one of their current better hitter so improving the offense in minimal at best.

The only other options would be to trade for an upgrade with their top prospects while also trading one or more of their better hitters to make room for the new addition(s). Again they're needing to trade one or two of their better hitter to make room plus trading their better prospects to gain minimal improvement on offense at best.

 

 

[Bertz]

38 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

There seems to be a lot of Christian Walker / Yankees smoke   Would think Bellinger would still be on the table for them at CF .

I think this would most likely, but not definitely, take them out on Bellinger.  Dominguez in CF is a bit risky, but they also have Grisham in case things go south.

Wouldn't be surprised if they re-upped with Gleyber instead.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I didn't say he's a mess,  I said the roster was a mess and has no real direction right now.

They have an obvious need of upgrading the offense but have every position tied to a contract or team control, and the only players being rumored in deals right now are possibly their better offensive hitters in Suzuki, Bellinger,  and Hoerner(Mariners).

Their two top offensive prospects in Shaw and Caissie may not be quite ready but are as of now blocked.

 

I dont believe there are many options to improve on who they already have via FA outside of Santander and Alonso, plus adding them would mean trading one of their current better hitter so improving the offense in minimal at best.

The only other options would be to trade for an upgrade with their top prospects while also trading one or more of their better hitters to make room for the new addition(s). Again they're needing to trade one or two of their better hitter to make room plus trading their better prospects to gain minimal improvement on offense at best.

 

 

I know. I reread your statement. I still disagree. I don’t think the roster is a mess. I think they have a lot of good, not great players. I think a couple of moves and they can be a very good team. There is enough money to spend and prospects to trade to make that happen. Now, what I am  it sure of is if Jed can make it happen. I am very encouraged that Jed and Carter are seemingly involved in so many options. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think this would most likely, but not definitely, take them out on Bellinger.  Dominguez in CF is a bit risky, but they also have Grisham in case things go south.

Wouldn't be surprised if they re-upped with Gleyber instead.

Yeah, that'd knock them out of Bellinger, IMO. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Vibes wise the article here really makes this feel like it has a chance to happen.  Even if it's not Tucker I'm starting to let myself think the team might consider something big

 

I'm pretty convinced the Cubs are on the precipice (not necessarily tonight or any specific night, but the offseason in general) of something exciting. The messaging and the behavior is different. I also think Hoyer is in a different spot career wise. 

I'm not sure if it'll be Tucker or Crochet...but I suspect at the end of the offseason, the Cubs will have made one of the most consequential trades of the offseason. 

[Rob]

I'm not trying to clock rumors as indicative of something the Cubs will do. Perhaps more than any other team in baseball, the Cubs front office has valued secrecy.

We can make generalized projections of what they can/should be interested in. And sometimes that will be so obvious a fit that it seems preordained (first run at Bellinger). Other times, you'll be wondering where the hell that came from (Michael Busch).

We will see what they're planning when they show us.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rob said:

I'm not trying to clock rumors as indicative of something the Cubs will do. Perhaps more than any other team in baseball, the Cubs front office has valued secrecy.

We can make generalized projections of what they can/should be interested in. And sometimes that will be so obvious a fit that it seems preordained (first run at Bellinger). Other times, you'll be wondering where the hell that came from (Michael Busch).

We will see what they're planning when they show us.

Yeah, I think in the end we have to be patient for the move(s). It may not happen tonight or tomorrow or this week. But I think the messaging is different than in the past. And the things we're being loosely or indirectly connected with are different. Last year it was a little Ohtani but mostly...periphery things - never Soto, for real, for example. 

This year, it's every single major trade. Crochet? Check. Some-weird-3-team-bonanza? Check. Kyle Tucker is available? Guess who's getting love? It's the Cubs! We're not seeing this same attribution to higher FAs - it was almost immediate that the Cubs were out on Soto or Fried or Burnes. But this idea that the Cubs are open for business via trade persists. 

Maybe they won't do a thing ever...but I do feel a bit like "if not now, then when?" here and the messaging, connections...it feels like something is gearing up. Sometime. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

With the Yankees pivoting to Walker i wonder if Hoyer overplayed his hand with Bellinger. Maybe was asking for too much when he should just be a salary dump at this point. Or maybe Cubs are close to trading him elsewhere 

[Tryptamine]

Still find it weird nothing official with Carson Kelly. Is it being held up by a separate move?

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Still find it weird nothing official with Carson Kelly. Is it being held up by a separate move?

Yeah, the Kelly thing had a lot of legs then passed out quickly. Tea leafs make you wonder if the Cubs have been pretty side-quested. Or maybe Kelly was the side quest and they're more worried about the main quest. 

With that said, the Red Sox were supposedly in agreement with Chapman five days ago and announced today. So horsefeathers happens?

[KCCub]

 

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, the Kelly thing had a lot of legs then passed out quickly. Tea leafs make you wonder if the Cubs have been pretty side-quested. Or maybe Kelly was the side quest and they're more worried about the main quest. 

With that said, the Red Sox were supposedly in agreement with Chapman five days ago and announced today. So horsefeathers happens?

Saw someone, Brett I think, mention the Cubs' roster is at 39 and so Kelly likely doesn't get finalized until the weekend post Rule 5

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Saw someone, Brett I think, mention the Cubs' roster is at 39 and so Kelly likely doesn't get finalized until the weekend post Rule 5

I saw that too. In order to take part in the rule 5 draft they have to be under 40 guys. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Wow ZiPS HATES the Fried contract.  I assumed something Nola-adjacent was warranted but the computer says no

 

Geez.  That could very well be a good projection.  Guess these are based on average outcomes.

Where do i find the ZiPS projections on FG?  Don't see anything for 2025 or beyond.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Geez.  That could very well be a good projection.  Guess these are based on average outcomes.

Where do i find the ZiPS projections on FG?  Don't see anything for 2025 or beyond.

ZiPS gets released team by team throughout the offseason, so you won't see the leaderboard style tables until around Spring Training.  12 teams have been released so far, you can click to see the post for any individual team from the home page or any of those posts: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projection-colorado-rockies/

[We Got The Whole 9]

Jed has the ammo to beat any offer for Tucker but I'm really pessimistic on him actually doing it. Feels a bit like last winter with the Guardians and Clase/Bieber. I know he has a lot of maneuvering to do still but something is telling me to brace for blue balls again.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Vibes wise the article here really makes this feel like it has a chance to happen.  Even if it's not Tucker I'm starting to let myself think the team might consider something big

Tucker does fit what the Cubs need.  HR power, elite middle of the order bat.  Even if he's a 1-year acquisition he does still fit based on the OF prospects we have who should be ready in 2026, and more time in Iowa this year wouldn't hurt but they can see some PA's this year as well.  Extension obviously on the table as well.  One of Caissie/Alcantara could be in a deal especially if Cubs seek an extension?  Maybe even a 3rd team?

If Tucker is in and Bellinger and even Seiya are out i'm still ok with it given we'll have money freed to acquire quality pitching and/or another bat.  But i'm not sure what Houston would be looking for.  I'd bet they'd like Parades, esp. given the Astros short porch in LF.  Cubs i'm sure would like to keep Paredes if they can.

[Stratos]

Is a Tucker extension after the Soto and Fried deals impossible?  Cubs would have to pony up.

[Post Count Padder]

Did the Ramgers really just trade Maximo Acosta and two other interesting prospects for the Marlins' Patrick Wisdom? I know Acosta's star has faded but that seems like a lot.