Winter Meetings thread

[17 Seconds]

i think i'm fine not getting another good sp if it means tucker is coming

Edited December 11, 2024 by 17 Seconds

[KCCub]

Yea it seems like Gil is going to be their big trade chip

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Giants and Phillies in the mix too. That would be quite impressive if the Giants landed him and Adames in the same offseason. 

Edited December 11, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is mostly thinking with my fingers, cause I wanted to see the end result if they did trade with an intent of extending Tucker.

Let's say that it's Busch that goes out, I see the Paredes fit but given the very real interest in Bregman and how him going to the Astros seems to make this more likely, that seems favored on the Astros side. Call the final package Busch, Caissie, Wesneski.  Let's assume Tucker is extending at 35M AAV, that might end up slightly conservative but not beyond budget margin for error anyway.

We previously assumed the team had 40ish million to spend, and was looking to add C, SP, RP.  They now have 5 million and need all those things plus 1B/DH, so Bellinger obviously has to go.  I don't see a clean way that his return can solve for one of the 4 spots needing filled, so let's say wherever he goes is for prospect capital that makes other trades easier.  Now you have 33 million.

First up is catcher, since it seems clear Kelly is at the finish line.  Call it 9 million AAV to be conservative since he's one of the last ones standing.  24 million for SP, RP, 1B.

Reliever now.  They were linked with Finnegan, and he seems like a decent fit for this scenario as someone who won't break the bank but has the stuff and pedigree to qualify as the leverage relief add.  Call it 8 million AAV, 16 million for SP and 1B.

Now is when you have to decide on the trade option, because you're not doing both of those in a satisfactory way on 16 million, and in FA probably not SP alone.  Maybe you make a run at Cease or King since SD has to cut payroll and they're 1 year options in range?  That also requires a 1B option that isn't late arb or FA.  King + Yandy Diaz is very close(especially if our FA/Tucker estimates were at all high) but requires a lot of trade assets and would require ever more creativity next year with both King and Yandy being FA.  Just a very narrow road.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's crazy how little we got for an expiring 3-time 7 WAR player who had bounced back from a disastrous pandemic campaign

[17 Seconds]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It's crazy how little we got for an expiring 3-time 7 WAR player who had bounced back from a disastrous pandemic campaign

3-time 7 war player is a generous way to talk about the state of kb when the cubs traded him

[thawv]

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

[Cuzi]

21 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is mostly thinking with my fingers, cause I wanted to see the end result if they did trade with an intent of extending Tucker.

Let's say that it's Busch that goes out, I see the Paredes fit but given the very real interest in Bregman and how him going to the Astros seems to make this more likely, that seems favored on the Astros side. Call the final package Busch, Caissie, Wesneski.  Let's assume Tucker is extending at 35M AAV, that might end up slightly conservative but not beyond budget margin for error anyway.

We previously assumed the team had 40ish million to spend, and was looking to add C, SP, RP.  They now have 5 million and need all those things plus 1B/DH, so Bellinger obviously has to go.  I don't see a clean way that his return can solve for one of the 4 spots needing filled, so let's say wherever he goes is for prospect capital that makes other trades easier.  Now you have 33 million.

First up is catcher, since it seems clear Kelly is at the finish line.  Call it 9 million AAV to be conservative since he's one of the last ones standing.  24 million for SP, RP, 1B.

Reliever now.  They were linked with Finnegan, and he seems like a decent fit for this scenario as someone who won't break the bank but has the stuff and pedigree to qualify as the leverage relief add.  Call it 8 million AAV, 16 million for SP and 1B.

Now is when you have to decide on the trade option, because you're not doing both of those in a satisfactory way on 16 million, and in FA probably not SP alone.  Maybe you make a run at Cease or King since SD has to cut payroll and they're 1 year options in range?  That also requires a 1B option that isn't late arb or FA.  King + Yandy Diaz is very close(especially if our FA/Tucker estimates were at all high) but requires a lot of trade assets and would require ever more creativity next year with both King and Yandy being FA.  Just a very narrow road.

Feel like if the Cubs deal from their starting infield then it creates too much of a ripple. If you trade Paredes, who do you replace him with? At the same time Bellinger is still out the door and with Tucker firmly in RF then Suzuki is out the door. If you trade Busch its the same deal.

The tweet didnt say they require a MLB ready corner infielder and the Yankees dont even have one to offer up. Deal from the pitching depth first. Assad, Wicks, Brown.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

Just now, thawv said:

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

Yes. He was under Theo for years, his job is on the line. I have some doubts about him, but this offseason the messaging is very different, from the team, and where the rumors are coming from. I don't think he goes to sleep sucking his thumb, and I think he's capable of swinging trades (he moved off Ferris and Hope for Busch last year, and that wasn't a small price to pay). 

Will it happen? I don't know. But I think Hoyer's more than capable of swinging a trade or two. He might not hand out a $600m contract, but I think he'll make a trade.

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

no.  but with 1 year left on his deal and the pressure to get something done, maybe he steps outside his comfort zone.  or he doesn't, the cubs win 83 again and we get a new GM

[Brian707]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

[KCCub]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

It's now or never. It's his walk year, the team is pieced together with solid controllable players at almost every position that are in their prime years, including his high dollar SS. They are prime for a difference maker player or two. If he doesn't do anything of significance this off-season, then I don't believe he's the guy moving forwards. 

[thawv]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yes. He was under Theo for years, his job is on the line. I have some doubts about him, but this offseason the messaging is very different, from the team, and where the rumors are coming from. I don't think he goes to sleep sucking his thumb, and I think he's capable of swinging trades (he moved off Ferris and Hope for Busch last year, and that wasn't a small price to pay). 

Will it happen? I don't know. But I think Hoyer's more than capable of swinging a trade or two. He might not hand out a $600m contract, but I think he'll make a trade.

If he's ever going to do something, this should be the year.  I just haven't seen anything that tells me he's all of a sudden going to be an aggressive risk taking president.  

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

If he's ever going to do something, this should be the year.  I just haven't seen anything that tells me he's all of a sudden going to be an aggressive risk taking president.  

Same spot I find myself in. Nothing has been aggressive so far. The way the Cubs FA period has gone up to this point its classic Jed.

Zastryzny

Thaiss

Morgan

Boyd

Potentially Kelly.

Somehow, some way, Bellinger isn't a member of the Yankees yet, even though they need LF/CF/1B and they've had a hard on for Bellinger for 2 years.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

If he's ever going to do something, this should be the year.  I just haven't seen anything that tells me he's all of a sudden going to be an aggressive risk taking president.  

 Sure, he hasn't swung a massing earth-shifting move, but he's signed one of the largest contracts in club history (Swanson), he's signed plenty of contracts that aren't "cheap" and he's made some trades, both where he buys and sells. He hasn't landed a whale, but realistically, very few teams land those, and I think this year is different.

We can choose misery where we just throw up are arms and declare all is lost, but I'm not going to do that. Do I know we're going to land a Tucker or a Crochet? Nope. I'm not betting on anything, but I'm not going to choose misery either. We'll see. 

[Tryptamine]

28 minutes ago, thawv said:

Do you guys really believe that Jed has it in him to do anything big or game changing?  

Not really. He's been remarkably afraid to do anything big. 

[Dfan25]

I dont like their chances if the Yanks offer Luis Gil . Rice could fit what they are looking for as well .

Cubs may need to take Pressly to have a better chance.

[thawv]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Same spot I find myself in. Nothing has been aggressive so far. The way the Cubs FA period has gone up to this point its classic Jed.

Zastryzny

Thaiss

Morgan

Boyd

Potentially Kelly.

Somehow, some way, Bellinger isn't a member of the Yankees yet, even though they need LF/CF/1B and they've had a hard on for Bellinger for 2 years.

So true!  Looking at Crochet...there's no team that can offer more than Jed.  For us not to be able to land him would be a real shame.  The rest of the league doesn't value our prospects as high as Jed does.  

[Dfan25]

This thing seems to be moving fast , considering yesterday the talk from the Astros was , we will listen on everybody .

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 Sure, he hasn't swung a massing earth-shifting move, but he's signed one of the largest contracts in club history (Swanson), he's signed plenty of contracts that aren't "cheap" and he's made some trades, both where he buys and sells. He hasn't landed a whale, but realistically, very few teams land those, and I think this year is different.

We can choose misery where we just throw up are arms and declare all is lost, but I'm not going to do that. Do I know we're going to land a Tucker or a Crochet? Nope. I'm not betting on anything, but I'm not going to choose misery either. We'll see. 

I wont choose misery. I'll let this play out. But my expectations arent super high. All of the Cubs big trades have been pretty big surprises. There's a lot of smoke out there on a Mariners trade, which has since been fanned out, and there's smoke about a Tucker trade. I'll believe it when I see it. I have not seen killer instinct out of Jed like you did Theo.

Choosing misery would be fanatically following the team if its status quo. Whereas I will just lose interest until a new Sheriff is in town.

[Tim]

• Cubs add Tucker (Wicks, Caissie, Horton) 
• Cubs send Bellinger to NYY (best prospect we can land)
• Cubs trade Hoerner to Seattle for the best of their starters you can get for Nico (Woo?)
• Cubs sign Jeff Hoffman
• Cubs finalize deal with Carson Kelly
• (Hopefully) Cubs sign Sasaki

I'm not sure if you can sign a player to a future contract and have it start to count against the cap the following season. I feel like I've seen that before, but I may be hallucinating there. If possible, though, get that done with Tucker so he's playing at $16M this year. Otherwise just get him extended and work out getting under the cap later.

The team is strong enough to stick Shaw at 2B from day one and live with the lumps. Maybe he does really well and you qualify for the bonus draft pick at the end of the year.

Hitters: PCA / Tucker / Seiya / Happ / Paredes / Busch / Swanson / Shaw / Kelly & Amaya, bench dudes

SP: Shota / Steele / Taillon / Woo / Boyd / Sasaki (PLEASE)  + Assad / Brown / Wesneski

RP: Hoffman / Hodge / Pearson / Miller / Morgan / etc.

[squally1313]

47 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is mostly thinking with my fingers, cause I wanted to see the end result if they did trade with an intent of extending Tucker.

Let's say that it's Busch that goes out, I see the Paredes fit but given the very real interest in Bregman and how him going to the Astros seems to make this more likely, that seems favored on the Astros side. Call the final package Busch, Caissie, Wesneski.  Let's assume Tucker is extending at 35M AAV, that might end up slightly conservative but not beyond budget margin for error anyway.

We previously assumed the team had 40ish million to spend, and was looking to add C, SP, RP.  They now have 5 million and need all those things plus 1B/DH, so Bellinger obviously has to go.  I don't see a clean way that his return can solve for one of the 4 spots needing filled, so let's say wherever he goes is for prospect capital that makes other trades easier.  Now you have 33 million.

First up is catcher, since it seems clear Kelly is at the finish line.  Call it 9 million AAV to be conservative since he's one of the last ones standing.  24 million for SP, RP, 1B.

Reliever now.  They were linked with Finnegan, and he seems like a decent fit for this scenario as someone who won't break the bank but has the stuff and pedigree to qualify as the leverage relief add.  Call it 8 million AAV, 16 million for SP and 1B.

Now is when you have to decide on the trade option, because you're not doing both of those in a satisfactory way on 16 million, and in FA probably not SP alone.  Maybe you make a run at Cease or King since SD has to cut payroll and they're 1 year options in range?  That also requires a 1B option that isn't late arb or FA.  King + Yandy Diaz is very close(especially if our FA/Tucker estimates were at all high) but requires a lot of trade assets and would require ever more creativity next year with both King and Yandy being FA.  Just a very narrow road.

This is good. I think the Cubs have agency and taking Busch (a player without anything close to an in house replacement) off the table does not mean the Cubs can't get this deal done. I get their loyalty to Bregman but I also don't understand trading their 6 fWAR, $35m/year RF and then turning around and signing an older, 4 fWAR 3B to $25m/year. Or else just throw prospects at them. There's other options. 

I don't really know how the extension conversations/rules work, and I guess I don't know why they have to put an extension starting in 2025 in place. Can they sign a contract tomorrow and have it not affect the luxury tax calcs until 2026? Even with some sort of signing bonus? Making 2025 Kyle Tucker a $35m guy takes away at least some of the appeal. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I don't really know how the extension conversations/rules work, and I guess I don't know why they have to put an extension starting in 2025 in place. Can they sign a contract tomorrow and have it not affect the luxury tax calcs until 2026? Even with some sort of signing bonus? Making 2025 Kyle Tucker a $35m guy takes away at least some of the appeal. 

Pretty sure you can have an extension that starts in 2026, though I think that would require them agreeing on a 2025 arb salary first.  It's just a question of whether you'd rather have another dead(ish) year of Tucker's contract in his mid-late 30s, or find a way to fit it all in this year.

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Tim said:

• Cubs add Tucker (Wicks, Caissie, Horton) 
• Cubs send Bellinger to NYY (best prospect we can land)
• Cubs trade Hoerner to Seattle for the best of their starters you can get for Nico (Woo?)
• Cubs sign Jeff Hoffman
• Cubs finalize deal with Carson Kelly
• (Hopefully) Cubs sign Sasaki

I'm not sure if you can sign a player to a future contract and have it start to count against the cap the following season. I feel like I've seen that before, but I may be hallucinating there. If possible, though, get that done with Tucker so he's playing at $16M this year. Otherwise just get him extended and work out getting under the cap later.

The team is strong enough to stick Shaw at 2B from day one and live with the lumps. Maybe he does really well and you qualify for the bonus draft pick at the end of the year.

Hitters: PCA / Tucker / Seiya / Happ / Paredes / Busch / Swanson / Shaw / Kelly & Amaya, bench dudes

SP: Shota / Steele / Taillon / Woo / Boyd / Sasaki (PLEASE)  + Assad / Brown / Wesneski

RP: Hoffman / Hodge / Pearson / Miller / Morgan / etc.

Someone's going to make him a starter. I don't see a fit here if you're bringing back a starter from Seattle, let alone adding Sasaki.

[Bertz]

You can 100% start and extension the following year, Ian Happ's was set up like that.