Meet Craig Counsell's Circle of Trust: The Four Cubs Relievers That Will Define Their October Run

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There’s a common saying in the world of sports: “Defense wins championships.” That’s certainly true in baseball. If you don’t play clean defense, bad things usually tend to follow.

But when the calendar flips to October, postseason baseball is often won and lost in the hands of a pitching staff. One bad inning can completely change the complexion of a series, and one blown lead can be the difference between moving on and going home. That’s why it’s going to be important for Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell to have a strong understanding of who he can trust in late-inning, high-leverage situations. Fortunately for him, multiple bullpen arms have made a compelling case to handle those spots.

We’ll start with the obvious one: Jacob Webb. Webb comfortably leads the Cubs in both saves (8) and save opportunities (12). Some of that can likely be attributed to the absence of Daniel Palencia, who should be returning in the near future from elbow inflammation. But regardless of the circumstances, Counsell has clearly shown that he trusts Webb when the game is on the line. And barring a catastrophic end to the regular season, that shouldn’t be any different once October arrives.

Webb’s underlying numbers help explain why. His 95th-percentile whiff rate and 87th-percentile chase rate highlight just how nasty his stuff can be. He has the type of arsenal that can miss bats when he needs a strikeout and get hitters to expand the zone when he’s ahead in the count. That’s exactly the kind of arm you want available in the biggest spots of a postseason game. Even if Webb eventually loses the primary closer role when Palencia returns, that doesn’t mean his importance to the Cubs’ bullpen will diminish. In fact, it could allow Counsell to deploy him more strategically, using him whenever the most dangerous part of an opposing lineup comes to the plate.

Speaking of Palencia, he should immediately factor into that equation once he’s healthy. A flame-throwing right-hander with a wipeout slider who is 26-for-30 in save opportunities over his career feels like a pretty safe bet to be trusted in high-leverage situations down the stretch. The biggest question is simply whether he can stay healthy.

When he’s on the mound, there’s plenty to like. Palencia has the swing-and-miss stuff necessary to put away hitters; he has been significantly better this season at generating soft contact, and walks haven’t been a major concern. The sample size is admittedly small — he’s thrown just 16 2/3 innings this season — but the early results have been encouraging. And even if Palencia doesn’t immediately reclaim the ninth-inning role, he feels like a very safe bet to become one of Counsell’s most trusted high-leverage arms once he returns.

The same can be said for one of Chicago’s recent trade deadline acquisitions: Ryan Zeferjahn. The Cubs surrendered Moisés Ballesteros and Mason McGwire to acquire Zeferjahn, and it’s pretty clear how they intend to use him. All four of his appearances with Chicago have come in the eighth inning, which is pretty tough to chalk up as coincidence.

Zeferjahn’s sweeper-four-seam combination generates plenty of whiffs, while he has also shown an ability to generate soft contact. Those traits give him the type of profile that makes sense in a setup role, particularly when Counsell needs someone capable of navigating the heart of an opposing lineup. There’s no guarantee that bullpen roles remain completely rigid over the final weeks of the season, but Zeferjahn seems like about as safe a bet as there is to continue receiving important eighth-inning opportunities.

Then there’s Ryan Rolison. The biggest difference between Rolison and the other three names mentioned is obvious: He’s left-handed. But that’s also part of what makes him valuable. The Cubs don’t necessarily need Rolison to be the guy they turn to for the final three outs of a game. What he has done is earn himself an opportunity to be trusted when the game is hanging in the balance.

Rolison’s 2.28 ERA is the lowest among Cubs relievers, excluding Riley Martin, who has thrown only 8 1/3 innings. His underlying numbers don’t jump off the page in the same way Webb, Palencia or Zeferjahn’s do, but that doesn’t make him any less useful. Rolison has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground, and his presence gives Counsell a different type of weapon to deploy late in games.

A bullpen doesn’t need four identical dominant arms to be effective. Ideally, a manager has different looks available depending on the situation, matchup and part of the lineup he’s trying to navigate. Rolison provides that versatility. You probably don’t want him closing out a game in the ninth inning with the season on the line, but he has earned a late-inning role down the stretch.

Webb has already established himself as a trusted late-inning option. Palencia should add another explosive arm once he returns. Zeferjahn looks increasingly comfortable in the setup role, while Rolison gives Counsell a valuable left-handed option. There may not be one perfect answer for every late-game situation. But heading into the stretch run, the Cubs have something nearly as valuable: options. And come October, Counsell will need every one of them.