General Cubs Chit-Chat

[muntjack]

Bro.

[SouthSideRyan]

Let's just hope that Alec Mills is back to his old reliable self next year.

[cl smooth]

Think we found Tom Ricketts’ burner account.

[wekse]

Embarrassing.

[javy knows my name]

Isn't this guy a cardinals troll?

[Bull]

Isn't this guy a cardinals troll?

No, he has been a very insightful poster in the past. One of the first and really educated a lot of us here. Account is clearly hacked.

[champaignchris]

“The team Hoyer envisioned at the beginning of the season never took the field due to injuries.”

 

And

 

“Hoyer did a lousy job of putting a competitive team on the field.”

 

Can both be true.

[Backtobanks]

“The team Hoyer envisioned at the beginning of the season never took the field due to injuries.”

 

And

 

“Hoyer did a lousy job of putting a competitive team on the field.”

 

Can both be true.

 

I suppose they could both be true, if Hoyer was naive enough to believe they would never have an injury.

[champaignchris]

“The team Hoyer envisioned at the beginning of the season never took the field due to injuries.”

 

And

 

“Hoyer did a lousy job of putting a competitive team on the field.”

 

Can both be true.

 

I suppose they could both be true, if Hoyer was naive enough to believe they would never have an injury.

 

There’s a lot of space between never having an injury and the top 6 starting pitchers in the organization at the beginning of the season all being on the IL at the same time, which was the case at one point in July. This has basically been a .500 team since Stroman and Smyly got off the IL.

 

Which is not good enough and nothing Cubs fans should be happy about, but not the team that was on pace to be one of the worst teams in franchise history at the ASB.

[squally1313]

“The team Hoyer envisioned at the beginning of the season never took the field due to injuries.”

 

And

 

“Hoyer did a lousy job of putting a competitive team on the field.”

 

Can both be true.

 

I suppose they could both be true, if Hoyer was naive enough to believe they would never have an injury.

 

There’s a lot of space between never having an injury and the top 6 starting pitchers in the organization at the beginning of the season all being on the IL at the same time, which was the case at one point in July. This has basically been a .500 team since Stroman and Smyly got off the IL.

 

Which is not good enough and nothing Cubs fans should be happy about, but not the team that was on pace to be one of the worst teams in franchise history at the ASB.

 

The Cubs were projected to be 25th in the league in starting pitching fWAR at the beginning of the year. They are 26th. It was supposed to be bad, and it is bad, just in a different way. Giving us another win or two in the standings from hypothetical Stroman/Smyly innings doesn't change much in terms of the overall outlook.

[Sammy Sofa]

the top 6 starting pitchers in the [Cubs] organization

 

Might as well be the new definition of damning with faint praise.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jacob DeGrom has pitched 16 innings and the Mets are 35 games over .500, and no 6 pitchers in the cubs organization equate to him.

[Tryptamine]

I'd say that those lost pitchers were nearly mitigated by having Steele and Thompson pitch way above any realistic expectations. Add in 53.1 innings of 3.88 ERA from a guy who was supposed to be a AAA wash out in Sampson and if anything I'd say they've gotten pretty lucky

[mul21]

Not excusing Hoyer in the least, but I think looking at raw numbers and not taking into account the larger load shouldered by the bullpen because of all the really short outings by the fill ins is probably leaving out a significant piece of the puzzle. I don't know how much of an overall difference it makes but an extra 4-8 IP every week adds up pretty quickly.

[squally1313]

Not excusing Hoyer in the least, but I think looking at raw numbers and not taking into account the larger load shouldered by the bullpen because of all the really short outings by the fill ins is probably leaving out a significant piece of the puzzle. I don't know how much of an overall difference it makes but an extra 4-8 IP every week adds up pretty quickly.

But our bullpen has generally outproduced the rest of the team, after being projected to come in as 23rd in baseball (not to over rely on the FG numbers, but seems like a solid resource for this discussion). 21st in ERA, 22nd in FIP, 6th in xFIP (we're also bad defensively!), 15th in fWAR with, to your point, a ton of innings pitched, so not the most efficient way to get to league average. Again, was supposed to be bad, is bad, just maybe for different reasons.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not excusing Hoyer in the least, but I think looking at raw numbers and not taking into account the larger load shouldered by the bullpen because of all the really short outings by the fill ins is probably leaving out a significant piece of the puzzle. I don't know how much of an overall difference it makes but an extra 4-8 IP every week adds up pretty quickly.

But our bullpen has generally outproduced the rest of the team, after being projected to come in as 23rd in baseball (not to over rely on the FG numbers, but seems like a solid resource for this discussion). 21st in ERA, 22nd in FIP, 6th in xFIP (we're also bad defensively!), 15th in fWAR with, to your point, a ton of innings pitched, so not the most efficient way to get to league average. Again, was supposed to be bad, is bad, just maybe for different reasons.

 

Projections don't represent a ceiling though, especially for something like a bullpen which is made up of a zillion small sample performances. Given how well the top half of the pen pitched(the only miss is Norris I think), with the benefit of hindsight I don't think it's unfair to say that projection was underrating the group.

 

I'd say that those lost pitchers were nearly mitigated by having Steele and Thompson pitch way above any realistic expectations. Add in 53.1 innings of 3.88 ERA from a guy who was supposed to be a AAA wash out in Sampson and if anything I'd say they've gotten pretty lucky

 

In order to get there they still had to have Leiter Jr, Swarmer, Mills, and Newcomb start more than 10% of the team's games. And you had to give dozens of relief innings to those guys plus Rucker, Gsellman, Espinoza, etc because those rotation fill-ins weren't available in the pen.

 

Bottom line, I still feel comfortable saying the team/pitching staff as constructed was a bit below .500(mid 70s wins) and they rolled snake eyes on some variance, that happens. If anything it's somewhat fortunate because they've been able to answer some rotation questions through it and 2023 has a higher floor for the trouble.

[squally1313]

Bottom line, I still feel comfortable saying the team/pitching staff as constructed was a bit below .500(mid 70s wins) and they rolled snake eyes on some variance, that happens. If anything it's somewhat fortunate because they've been able to answer some rotation questions through it and 2023 has a higher floor for the trouble.

Doesn't really seem to be looking at the whole picture to just mention rolling snake eyes on the injuries to our starters, a good portion of which are bad when healthy, and ignore Steele and Thompson exceeding all expectations and then Sampson giving us like 10 very above average starts. Yes, 10% of the games were started by bad pitchers. But, Alec Mills was regarded as our 5th starter to open the year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bottom line, I still feel comfortable saying the team/pitching staff as constructed was a bit below .500(mid 70s wins) and they rolled snake eyes on some variance, that happens. If anything it's somewhat fortunate because they've been able to answer some rotation questions through it and 2023 has a higher floor for the trouble.

Doesn't really seem to be looking at the whole picture to just mention rolling snake eyes on the injuries to our starters, a good portion of which are bad when healthy, and ignore Steele and Thompson exceeding all expectations and then Sampson giving us like 10 very above average starts. Yes, 10% of the games were started by bad pitchers. But, Alec Mills was regarded as our 5th starter to open the year.

 

Yes, sometimes players exceed expectation(Steele and Thompson) and sometimes they disappoint(Hendricks and kinda Stroman), that's a pretty normal state of affairs. What isn't normal is your best expected starters missing 40% of those starts due to injury, and mostly simultaneously for further damage.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I was in Baltimore for the rainout in June, and the Good Lord Jesus Christ (GLJC^TM) is taking me back to Charm City for the makeup tomorrow. I was supposed to see Stro pitch back then, but now I get a guy named Sampson (backiotomy jokes are not allowed at this time). I kind of hope he gets shelled early so I can watch a bunch of other guys I've never heard of pitch.

[Brian707]

Anyone know when the 2023 schedule is released? Thought it was in August usually. Maybe with each team playing every other team at least one series it will take more time.

[Cubswin11]

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1561780271313309696?s=21&t=727bjoxjepd3zBkU3sBXMw

[CubinNY]

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1561780271313309696?s=21&t=727bjoxjepd3zBkU3sBXMw

Wash just coming her to post a more boring version of that tweet

[itisallpartoftheplan]

So I assume that means Kilian is the 27th man for the DH and Wesneski is here to stay with Keegan on the IL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So I assume that means Kilian is the 27th man for the DH and Wesneski is here to stay with Keegan on the IL.

 

It could mean either. Thompson's injury and the DH means they need two starts this week, and Wesneski pitched on Friday so he wouldn't be a good option for Tuesday. They have an extra reliever right now anyway with Espinoza taking Thompson's roster spot, so there's flexibility. That said, if I had to guess I think you're right. If you're adding Wesneski to the 40 man to let him start Wednesday, I think he's probably a bit more 'ready' for taking several rotation turns at the MLB level.

[Bertz]

 

Crawly was wrong, though I would still assume Kilian gets Wednesday