General Cubs Chit-Chat

[David]

Just now, sneakypower said:

...ok?

You don't see the difference between evaluating off of 4+ months/100+ games worth of performance over 3-4 weeks/20-25 games?

And why would I side so heavily with a projection model that has Cody Bellinger probably with a 100-105 wRC+ the rest of the way over the drastically different (and precedented, to some extent - either way there are clear explanations for the obvious uptick) reality that we've seen over 4 months?  Or one that thinks Justin Steele is an OK pitcher?

The projection systems are obviously useful in a broad sense but you can't be a slave to them, either. 

[PackLandVA]

[sneakypower]

2 hours ago, David said:

You don't see the difference between evaluating off of 4+ months/100+ games worth of performance over 3-4 weeks/20-25 games?

And why would I side so heavily with a projection model that has Cody Bellinger probably with a 100-105 wRC+ the rest of the way over the drastically different (and precedented, to some extent - either way there are clear explanations for the obvious uptick) reality that we've seen over 4 months?  Or one that thinks Justin Steele is an OK pitcher?

The projection systems are obviously useful in a broad sense but you can't be a slave to them, either. 

it was a simple analogy obviously exaggerated for a somewhat funny effect

we should know Bellinger is assuredly going to hit way closer to 105 wRC+ the last 2 months than 140 and likewise Steele and his current 2.65 ERA should regress (the reverse is also true for Suzuki, Wesneski, Taillon etc)

for whatever it's worth here are the discrepancies between current performance and prorated preseason ZiPS

Edited August 4, 2023 by sneakypower

[Banedon]

 

[PackLandVA]

Okay, I know there’s been some changes/tweaks to the whole “September call-upss“ but I have a few questions.

- do the rosters still expand on September 1 ?

-I assume it’s just those on the 40.

-who realistically would be called? I know I heard PCA mentioned. I’d assume Mervis. What about pitchers? Kay? Estrada? Rucker?

-and somewhat related, any idea on Boxberger, Hughes, and Burdi?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Rosters still expand, but only to 28 and only one of those(14 total of the 28) can be a pitcher.  So you can think of September call ups as one position player spot and one reliever.