General Cubs Chit-Chat

[champaignchris]

34 minutes ago, Cubfanintheknow said:

Anyone have Frank Schwindel on speed dial? 

Your backup first baseman for the first-place Orix Buffaloes is currently slashing .294/.286/.382 in the Japan Western League. 

The rare lower OBP than BA is quite a feat!

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Cubfanintheknow said:

What worries me is he broke a bone doing something routine. Fractures like that concern me; there could be a little more to it. But I'm not a doctor,  so...

Well, the justification I read was that the new ligament was stronger than the bone which is what can sometimes cause the fracture.  So it doesn't sound completely out of the ordinary, but I'm not sure what can prevent that from happening again.  Perhaps a reconstructed elbow will be able to withstand the force and he will be all systems go early next season.  Or maybe that is wishful thinking.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Well, the justification I read was that the new ligament was stronger than the bone which is what can sometimes cause the fracture.  So it doesn't sound completely out of the ordinary, but I'm not sure what can prevent that from happening again.  Perhaps a reconstructed elbow will be able to withstand the force and he will be all systems go early next season.  Or maybe that is wishful thinking.

If I were a betting person, I'd bet he never sees the MLB. What happened to him is not normal. I said when it happened it reminded me of Chad Fox and it is pretty much the same injury that ended his career, although Fox was 38. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

18 hours ago, CubinNY said:

If I were a betting person, I'd bet he never sees the MLB. What happened to him is not normal. I said when it happened it reminded me of Chad Fox and it is pretty much the same injury that ended his career, although Fox was 38. 

Age is a key difference though, since Chad Fox was pretty much already toast before the injury.  I have no idea what the prognosis is for Heuer, but I wouldn't write him off because of what happened to a 38 year old journeyman.

[CubinNY]

Jared Young was called up. 28 year old.

[jersey cubs fan]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Jared Young was called up. 28 year old.

Hope this turns out better than the last time the words Jared and young were mentioned together in the news 

[17 Seconds]

i met subway jared at a bar once in the mid aughts. he was drunk and weird as hell

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

i met subway jared at a bar once in the mid aughts. he was drunk and weird as hell

That sounds about right. That documentary on him on Netflix made me sick to my stomach.

[UMFan83]

Question for the stats guys:  How do you quantify Nico Hoerner's value from an offensive standpoint?  Meaning, I heard a lot of buzz about Nico being a borderline All-Star this year and to be honest when I saw Nico come up in the 11th inning yesterday with a man on 3rd, I felt good about it on a team that lacks a ton of options that you want to see up there in a high leverage situation.  Obviously a large amount of his value comes on the defensive side, but I also think that more often that not Nico has good at bats, doesn't seem to press in high leverage spots and has good contact skills.

But when you look at traditional baseball stats, or basic "advanced stats" or even some of the legit advanced stats out there, he looks like a slightly below average offensive player, despite both FG and BR showing him as a net positive (I think).  His wOBA is slightly below average at .318, his OPS+ is 98, his wRC+ is 99.  

Maybe my premise is faulty and he's really just an average offensive player with elite defensive skills, but for some reason I cant shake the fact that his relatively high BA and low K rate make him more valuable than advanced stats can show.  Am I off here?

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by UMFan83

[Rob]

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Question for the stats guy:  How do you quantify Nico Hoerner's value from an offensive standpoint?  Meaning, I heard a lot of buzz about Nico being a borderline All-Star this year and to be honest when I saw Nico come up in the 11th inning yesterday with a man on 3rd, I felt good about it on a team that lacks a ton of options that you want to see up there in a high leverage situation.  Obviously a large amount of his value comes on the defensive side, but I also think that more often that not Nico has good at bats, doesn't seem to press in high leverage spots and has good contact skills.

But when you look at traditional baseball stats, or basic "advanced stats" or even some of the legit advanced stats out there, he looks like a slightly below average offensive player, despite both FG and BR showing him as a net positive (I think).  His wOBA is slightly below average at .318, his OPS+ is 98, his wRC+ is 99.  

Maybe my premise is faulty and he's really just an average offensive player with elite defensive skills, but for some reason I cant shake the fact that his relatively high BA and low K rate make him more valuable than advanced stats can show.  Am I off here?

 

To be perfectly honest, it's difficult to quantify.

This version of Hoerner is likely a better version of a similar player with a ton more strikeouts. All those balls in play make him a little bit more likely to ground into a double play, but he's also far more likely to advance a runner.

You may consider looking at something like RE24. Unlike most stats which try to strip context from what the batter does, RE24 relies heavily on the context. You can read about it here. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Question for the stats guy:  How do you quantify Nico Hoerner's value from an offensive standpoint?  Meaning, I heard a lot of buzz about Nico being a borderline All-Star this year and to be honest when I saw Nico come up in the 11th inning yesterday with a man on 3rd, I felt good about it on a team that lacks a ton of options that you want to see up there in a high leverage situation.  Obviously a large amount of his value comes on the defensive side, but I also think that more often that not Nico has good at bats, doesn't seem to press in high leverage spots and has good contact skills.

But when you look at traditional baseball stats, or basic "advanced stats" or even some of the legit advanced stats out there, he looks like a slightly below average offensive player, despite both FG and BR showing him as a net positive (I think).  His wOBA is slightly below average at .318, his OPS+ is 98, his wRC+ is 99.  

Maybe my premise is faulty and he's really just an average offensive player with elite defensive skills, but for some reason I cant shake the fact that his relatively high BA and low K rate make him more valuable than advanced stats can show.  Am I off here?

 

Nico has 79 XBH and 80 BB in 1250 PA. When I watch him I mostly see a slap hitting hacker whos primarily concerned with putting the ball in play. He's probably our modern version of Castro; 80% of his hitting profile is grounded in a pretty hollow BA. I think he chases too much and doesn't do enough damage on meatballs and the like. Too many infield flies and should be hitting more line drives in general. It's a damn good thing that he is pretty fast and a very discerning baserunner to extract some more value along with his stellar defense. 

 

Hoerner is #2 in contact rate behind Arraez, though it's a sizable gap. But when comparing their profiles this year, there are numerous similarities from the approach to the contact and contact quality. The major differences I see are in line drive and flyball rates. Nico is 94th in LD and his FB rate is too high considering his dismal hard hit rate.

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, Rob said:

To be perfectly honest, it's difficult to quantify.

This version of Hoerner is likely a better version of a similar player with a ton more strikeouts. All those balls in play make him a little bit more likely to ground into a double play, but he's also far more likely to advance a runner.

You may consider looking at something like RE24. Unlike most stats which try to strip context from what the batter does, RE24 relies heavily on the context. You can read about it here. 

Ahh yes, RE24 is something I've come across before but haven't looked into very deeply.  Definitely seems like, similar to WPA, is not really predictive of future results as there is still a widespread belief that "clutch hitting" is not really a skill.  But it does seem to show Nico in a very positive light this year.

[UMFan83]

14 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Nico has 79 XBH and 80 BB in 1250 PA. When I watch him I mostly see a slap hitting hacker whos primarily concerned with putting the ball in play. He's probably our modern version of Castro; 80% of his hitting profile is grounded in a pretty hollow BA. I think he chases too much and doesn't do enough damage on meatballs and the like. Too many infield flies and should be hitting more line drives in general. It's a damn good thing that he is pretty fast and a very discerning baserunner to extract some more value along with his stellar defense. 

 

Hoerner is #2 in contact rate behind Arraez, though it's a sizable gap. But when comparing their profiles this year, there are numerous similarities from the approach to the contact and contact quality. The major differences I see are in line drive and flyball rates. Nico is 94th in LD and his FB rate is too high considering his dismal hard hit rate.

Nico with a better line drive rate would be freaking scary.  But to get to that point you probably end up messing with his contact rate or other areas that he is currently strong at (I think?).  Castro's hitting profile with better defense and baserunning seems fair.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

49 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Question for the stats guys:  How do you quantify Nico Hoerner's value from an offensive standpoint?  Meaning, I heard a lot of buzz about Nico being a borderline All-Star this year and to be honest when I saw Nico come up in the 11th inning yesterday with a man on 3rd, I felt good about it on a team that lacks a ton of options that you want to see up there in a high leverage situation.  Obviously a large amount of his value comes on the defensive side, but I also think that more often that not Nico has good at bats, doesn't seem to press in high leverage spots and has good contact skills.

But when you look at traditional baseball stats, or basic "advanced stats" or even some of the legit advanced stats out there, he looks like a slightly below average offensive player, despite both FG and BR showing him as a net positive (I think).  His wOBA is slightly below average at .318, his OPS+ is 98, his wRC+ is 99.  

Maybe my premise is faulty and he's really just an average offensive player with elite defensive skills, but for some reason I cant shake the fact that his relatively high BA and low K rate make him more valuable than advanced stats can show.  Am I off here?

 

Two things jump to mind for me.  One is the clutchiness bit that you allude to, and the way I would think to incorporate that as a catch all would be WPA.  However Hoerner isn't a standout in WPA, though he's about 60th percentile for qualified players which is better than his league average wRC+.

The other thing is baserunning, that's not a part of wOBA(and by extension, wRC+) or OPS+, and he's 19 of 21 in SB and 7th among qualifiers in BsR. 

 

[CubinNY]

Nico is a fine player and given his position one of the better 2B in MLB. Having said that, he's not a guy you build a team around or think of as a core contributor (at least at the plate). He's much more valuable to a team that has power from the more traditional positions. IMO, that's one of the bigger problems of the Cubs, they have a lot of pieces, but they don't all fit together particularly well.

They need Suzuki to be able to hit the ball past the warning track in the air. They need a 3B who can hit the ball in the air past the infield. They need Morel to remember he can play defense adequately. But most of all the need to rediscover the magic powder to create a bullpen that is more than the sum of its parts. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Nico is a fine player and given his position one of the better 2B in MLB. Having said that, he's not a guy you build a team around or think of as a core contributor (at least at the plate). He's much more valuable to a team that has power from the more traditional positions. IMO, that's one of the bigger problems of the Cubs, they have a lot of pieces, but they don't all fit together particularly well.

 

Honestly, what do you guys think is out there in terms of the rest of the league. Hoerner is 5th in 2B fWAR since the beginning of last year (6.1 fWAR in 865 PAs, the leader is Semien, 7.5 in 270 more PAs). Hoerner is a first round pick who hit at every level, and outside of a rough covid year has been a consistent producer. He's 26 years old and we have him for the next 3 years at $35m total. If that is not a 'core contributor' then there's really no pleasing you. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's been a lot my time, but I vaguely remember the standard sabr estimate being contact outs were worth about 5 runs per 100 over strikeouts.  So hoerner not K-ing is worth about half a win a year 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Derwood]

Swanson to IL, Mastrouboni up

[Irrelevant Dude]

It pretty much has to be Mervis with a fresh start at 1B coming back from the All-Star break, right?  Send Young back down, recall Mervis, and let him start 4-5 games/week with Mancini getting a few games against lefties.  Nobody else is giving the Cubs any production at 1B, so (barring a trade) they have nothing to lose by giving Mervis the second half of the season.

[Derwood]

16 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It pretty much has to be Mervis with a fresh start at 1B coming back from the All-Star break, right?  Send Young back down, recall Mervis, and let him start 4-5 games/week with Mancini getting a few games against lefties.  Nobody else is giving the Cubs any production at 1B, so (barring a trade) they have nothing to lose by giving Mervis the second half of the season.

 

They have to know what they've got for next year

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

It pretty much has to be Mervis with a fresh start at 1B coming back from the All-Star break, right?  Send Young back down, recall Mervis, and let him start 4-5 games/week with Mancini getting a few games against lefties.  Nobody else is giving the Cubs any production at 1B, so (barring a trade) they have nothing to lose by giving Mervis the second half of the season.

There's some roster math they have to make some more opinionated decisions about soon.  With 13 position players, you've got Happ, Bellinger, Seiya, Hoerner, Swanson, and Gomes as iron clad locks.  For those remaining 7 spots, you've got non-optionable players with 2024 guarantees(Mancini, Barnhart), prospects that could use more playing time(Amaya, Morel, Mervis), and optionable role players who are playing well enough to earn their spot(Madrigal, Tauchman, Wisdom*).  That makes 8, so with everyone healthy Mervis may stay down unless they do something they haven't yet been ready to do.

 

*Not currently playing well enough but has more significant history doing so than others

ETA: I don't have a great feel for this, but I'm wondering if July makes for a bit of a last stand for Wisdom.  With Madrigal and Morel looking playable(plus the possibility of a trade target) he's more expendable if the bombs aren't flowing, and he's redundant with Mancini as a 1B/DH. They don't have to cut him as he has options, but if he gets sent to Iowa it's not hard to see him never coming back.

[Irrelevant Dude]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 They don't have to cut him as he has options, but if he gets sent to Iowa it's not hard to see him never coming back.

See: David Bote

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

See: David Bote

Exactly, I actually thought I said Bote's name and must've left it out in the rush to finish the edit. No long term deal in Wisdom's case but same story where the pressures that take him to Iowa make him preferred to get bumped off the 40 man, after which it's game over even if he stayed in the org.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

ETA: I don't have a great feel for this, but I'm wondering if July makes for a bit of a last stand for Wisdom.  With Madrigal and Morel looking playable(plus the possibility of a trade target) he's more expendable if the bombs aren't flowing, and he's redundant with Mancini as a 1B/DH. They don't have to cut him as he has options, but if he gets sent to Iowa it's not hard to see him never coming back.

I think it has to be. .150/.247/.316 going back to April 20. After that hot stretch to open the season, he’s been a total negative.

[Derwood]

A Sporcle quiz I made today:

https://www.sporcle.com/games/Zipcity/2016-chicago-cubs-where-are-they-now