Jameson Taillon is Falling Behind, and Paying a Dear Price for It

With an ERA over 5.00 and peripherals just as bad, Jameson Taillon has struggled this year. As we get deeper into the season and closer to the trade deadline, the likelihood Taillon’s season can be turned around is one of the most crucial questions the Cubs need to answer. Let’s dig into what has gone most wrong for Taillon this year. 

Six weeks ago, I covered the decline in fastball velocity and change in arsenal to compensate for it. Taillon’s fastball and sinker both were 0.5 MPH or more higher in May than in April, and his changeup got much better results in May than in April. Yet, it didn’t help. Taillon’s slugging percentage allowed went up significantly in May on fastballs and sinkers. His cutter regressed, and now all of his fastballs and offspeed pitches (4seam, sinker, cutter, change) are allowing a slugging percentage over .600, backed up by peripherals. His breaking stuff (curve and sweeper) has been fantastic in both months this year, but he almost never throws those pitches when he falls behind hitters in the count. Therein lies a larger problem. 

Last season, Taillon was absolutely incredible when he was behind in the count, holding batters to a .176 batting average and a .361 slugging. Shockingly, he actually was better than when he got ahead in the count, allowing .215 and a .381 slugging. This wasn’t anything he had ever done before and was ripe for regression to the mean—which is exactly what has happened, and then some. He has been absolutely dominant when ahead in the count this year and abysmal when he has fallen behind. Batters are hitting .132/.276 when they fall behind and .303/.645 when they get ahead. 

In addition to allowing those sky-high numbers when he falls behind in the count, Taillon is running the highest walk rate of his career, at nearly 8%. Taillon, who has never had a first pitch strike percentage under 61.7% and who has never thrown less than 65.7% first pitch strikes in a Cubs uniform, is throwing 56% strikes. He's finished a calendar month with below 50% of his first pitches in the zone just 3 times in a Cubs uniform. Those are August 2025 and April and May of 2026. He's falling behind in counts at a rate he has never done before. When you fall behind in counts, hitters make you pay, and they have made Taillon pay all season long.   

While he has decreased his fastball usage on the first pitch this season in favor of more breaking and offspeed stuff, he hasn’t been able to throw them for strikes often enough. Taillon’s breaking stuff is in the zone just 36% of the time, and his offspeed just 31% of the time on the first pitch. Even the fastball is in the zone just 51% of the time. Throwing fewer pitches in the zone could work, if you're getting batters to chase more, but batters are just not chasing fastballs or breaking balls on the first pitch from Taillon. One silver lining though: batters are chasing an absurd 54% of offspeed pitches on the first pitch. The bad news is, he throws offspeed just 6% of the time on that first pitch.    

That leaves us with a pretty clear picture of Taillon in 2026, and why he is getting beat up. No pitcher can survive constantly behind in the count, especially one that lacks premium stuff. Is his lack of first pitch strikes mechanical? There are a few slight differences, so it’s always possible, but nothing truly glaring, and this issue is across the board. A change in approach? I really hope not, it's never really a good idea to throw fewer strikes. A loss in confidence? Perhaps he's trying to be more fine with a loss in velocity. Is this how it ends for the veteran? Anyone’s guess is as good as mine.    

I think Taillon could benefit from throwing more offspeed on the first pitch, but there is clearly regression coming for the 54% chase rate on offspeed if the frequency with which he throws it increases. It won’t solve all of his problems, but stealing a few more first-pitch strikes is a must if you aren’t going to pound the zone. Getting back to throwing more first-pitch strikes has to be the number one focus for Taillon if he can be counted on to play a role for the Cubs down the stretch in 2026. If he can't get ahead in the count like he used to, the Cubs may need to look elsewhere.