Jameson Taillon's Homer-Happy Ways Are Back. What Can the Cubs Do to Help Him Adjust?

[Jeremy Tecktiel]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Jameson Taillon is not off to the start the Chicago Cubs had envisioned. A free agent at the end of the year, Taillon’s importance to the team's playoff hopes greatly increased with the early season injuries to Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton, the latter of which is of the season-ending variety. Is it time for the Cubs to worry about Taillon?

Entering the fourth and final year of the $68 million contract he originally signed, Taillon has been a steady presence in the rotation over the past two years after a below-average first season in Cubbie blue. Steady is important! Taillon has always been a strike thrower and he is throwing in front of a defense that has been excellent the last two years, a combination for success. The defense still looks to be a top unit, so what's changed in 2026 that's led to his 4.86 ERA and 6.28 FIP?

On the surface, the answer is pretty glaring. He has given up a league-leading five home runs so far this season. You can’t rely on your defense if they don’t have a chance to make a play. While three of those home runs came against the Pirates with the wind blowing out, Statcast has him at 4.7 expected home runs, signaling that we can’t necessarily blame the conditions. So. what is behind this trend and can he reverse it?     

This answer here also seems to be pretty glaring: a fastball that is down almost 1 mph from last season. 

 

He is getting less whiffs on his fastball than he ever has and is sporting an alarming .722 slugging percentage against it, backed up by a .809 expected slugging. While he has slightly increased his velocity each start, history suggests that he is not generally a pitcher who eases into the season and gains more velocity as he goes. He has generally shown his top velocity early on, so expecting him to bridge the gap as the season progresses is a dubious proposition at best. If he can’t gain that velocity back, where does he go from here?

Luckily, Taillon seems to understand the need to change the way he attacks hitters based on his diminished velocity, as evidenced in his pitch usage. Last year, Taillon primarily used three pitches against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Against righties, he primarily used his sweeper (32%), four-seamer (31%), cutter (23%); against lefties he was all four-seamer (44%), curve (24%), change (20%). In 2026, he has the same three-pitch mix against right-handers, but he has altered the usage; he has thrown cutter (31%), sweeper (29%) and 4Seam (28%). Against lefties, he has expanded his pitch mix to include the cutter (23%). Clearly, he has intentionally been throwing a lot less four-seamers and a lot more cutters, especially to lefties. The cutter has been dominant so far in 2026, generating a .071 batting average and .286 slugging against. Throwing that in place of his primary heater is probably a good idea, so why are the results less than stellar?         

Well, right-handed hitters slashed .258/.281/.492 against him last year, while lefties slashed .191/.249/.361, thanks to a new look kick changeup that dominated them to the tune of .161 batting average and a .261 slugging percentage while being responsible for just one home run. The early returns this year on the changeup are much less impressive: a .400 batting average with a 1.000 slug against with two home runs against in just 37 pitches. What changed (forgive the pun)? It looks like a drop in vertical break may be the culprit.    

 

  

Getting that back to his 2025 standard would be a good proxy for additional velocity, if we're to assume he can't repair both at the same time. The book on Taillon has always been about limiting homers and finding a way to stifle lefties. He found the recipe to success down the stretch last year, and a return to to form would be a huge boon for a Cubs team currently ailing in the rotation.

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