Jeremy Tecktiel

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images By most indicators, the Chicago Cubs have the best defense in MLB and the best offense besides that of the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is an impressive group with depth and flexibility, with nine players already reaching 1 WAR before the All-Star Break. Yet, I don’t think most Cubs fans would be overly confident in the team’s chances if the playoffs started today. Understandably so! The pitching staff does not inspire confidence. A position player group like the one on the North Side doesn’t come along every year. Knowing these windows can close faster than expected, the Cubs need to invest in the pitching staff while this window is open. With July here, let’s look at a couple of potential starting pitchers the Cubs might be able to add to their rotation. The Cubs need help all over their pitching staff. As a group, they have the highest home run rate in the league backed up by one of the highest hard-hit rates. They also have below-average strike out and ground ball rates. Not good! It also does not appear internal help is coming. Jameson Taillon is expected to pitch in a rehab game on July 5 but he has been a large part of the problem; expecting him to be a solution here is a fool’s errand. Edward Cabrera is hopefully an August return, but he has also been underwhelming at best. Ben Brown may not be back this year, and who knows what he will look like if he does return; Brown himself said he will need to tweak his mechanics to avoid the injury recurring again. That leaves Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson as the current Cubs playoff rotation. Again, not good! Injury problems that have plagued him throughout his career have resurfaced for Boyd this season, making him tougher to rely on. Colin Rea is a career back-of-the-rotation starter and swingman who has filled in admirably but is best in that role, where he can be hidden a bit from left-handed hitters. If Justin Steele makes it back, it will reportedly be out of the bullpen. This all leads to my belief that the Cubs truly need to add two legitimate starters this deadline, a very tall task that will require them to be more aggressive than they have been in previous years. With the expanded playoff format, more teams feel they could still contend for a wild-card spot, meaning less teams are willing to sell. That can make it a tough market for true buyers, like the Cubs. The obvious trade candidates, and ones that have been discussed on this site, are guys like Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta, upcoming free agents on underperforming teams. There are also the two Angels pitchers, Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers, who have been written about. I'd like to focus on two rental starting pitchers I would like to see the Cubs make a serious run at that should both be attainable, despite their brilliant production this year. Casey Mize While his teammates Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty get the majority of the rumors, the Tigers do have a third starter set to hit free agency this offseason. The former No. 1 overall pick is having his best season yet as he approaches free agency. The Cubs will likely have to spend this year in free agency for pitching. This problem isn’t going away; they don’t have multiple impact arms in the upper-minors ready to come back and make an impact. Cade Horton is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and Justin Steele is a question mark, so relying on them in the rotation next year is not prudent. Trading for Mize now allows the Cubs a few months to court him and potentially extend him before he hits the open market. Mize has a 90th percentile, 5.5% walk rate that would play very nicely in front of this defense. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. He has sacrificed velocity on his fastball in favor of spin efficiency and it has worked well. His fastball has increased vertical movement and in doing so has increased the swing and miss rate by six percentage points while dropping the hard-hit rate by 22% points. That uptick in vertical movement has also caused batters to be under the fastball 57% of the time, up from 45-46% the past couple of years. The Tigers will almost certainly give him a qualifying offer, which means the Cubs need to offer more than the value of a compensation draft pick for Mize. The Tigers' run differential shows they have been a bit unlucky this season after an ALDS run last year, likely meaning they don’t plan on a full rebuild and are focused on major-league ready players and prospects. Their offense has struggled this year, though; perhaps an offer around a package of James Triantos and Kevin Alcantara would entice them to part with Mize. Sonny Gray The veteran right-hander continues to perform at a high level despite the Red Sox's struggles this year. Boston traded for him to bolster their rotation for an expected playoff run, but their dormant offense has made any playoff run unlikely, and subsequently made Gray available. Gray pairs a 6.2% walk rate with a 47.5% ground-ball rate, both in the top 25% of major league pitchers. It isn’t hard to see how that would play well in front of the Cubs' defense. Gray will add a steadying presence to the rotation, as he has made at least 22 starts every year since 2014 and has allowed a FIP over 4.00 in just three of those 14 seasons (and only once outside of his Yankees seasons. Gray does come with a mutual option for next season, but he's a virtual lock to reach free agency. The Red Sox seem to have pitching depth going forward with Garret Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and even Brayan Bello, but they are struggling with middle infield depth. A package centered around Pedro Ramirez, who doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner entrenched in the infield, might be able to get the job done. View full article

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Another month, another test of the Cubs' organizational pitching depth that underscores the need for development on the farm. One returning name and three new ones found their way into this month’s edition of MiLB pitcher of the month consideration, including a couple at the higher levels. Ranking Cubs' Best Minor League Pitchers in June Honorable mentions Will Sanders - RHP - Iowa Sanders struggled in Iowa before hitting the IL mid-April, but upon his return, he was really good in 4 starts in June. He allowed just 6 runs over 21 innings, going at least 5 innings in each start. He had a 28% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate and allowed a .185/.270/.354 slash line. With the amount of injuries the Cubs have been through, Sanders will be in Wrigley before long, if he keeps up what he did in June. Pierce Coppola - LHP - Myrtle Beach Coppola was my runner-up in May after a quality debut, and he was just as good in June. Over 4 starts he allowed a .179/.292/.232 slash line, with a 29% strikeout rate. He lowered his walk rate for the second straight month, this time to 12%. I would imagine a move to South Bend is right around the corner for the big lefty. Runner-up Jace Beck - RHP - Knoxville Jace Beck was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2019 draft by the Mets. That's a round that no longer exists. He spent 6 seasons (7 years, if you count 2020) in the minor leagues for the Mets, but never made it to Double-A. You don’t see that often! He elected free agency after last season, and the Cubs scooped him up and sent him to Knoxville. While he was solid in April and May, he found a new level in June. He made 5 multi-inning appearances, including 3 starts, and allowed just 1 run over 19 innings with a 47% (!!!) strikeout rate. He finished the month with back-to-back starts of 5 innings and 10+ strikeouts. Winner Jackson Brockett - RHP - South Bend Jackson Brockett was a 4-year starter at Nebraska, but he went undrafted last summer before signing a free agent deal with the Cubs before spring training this year. He was incredible in June for South Bend, allowing a .136/.149/.167 slash line to opposing hitters with a 27% strikeout rate and a walk rate barely over 1%. To put those numbers in perspective, over five multi-inning outings in the month, he allowed one walk and just 2 extra-base hits to the 67 batters he faced. Across two levels, he has a 1.29 ERA in 49 innings backed up by a 25% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate. Brockett is certainly opening eyes, even if he'll have to work hard to prove he's more than an org guy. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Drafts are primarily judged on their first-round picks. Finding more than three big-league contributors in a draft is cause for celebration; most classes yield that many or fewer. Thus, if a team doesn’t find value at the top, it faces an uphill climb to be a fruitful draft. The Cubs signed 19 of their 20 picks in last year’s draft, but their first-round pick, Ethan Conrad, is just making his pro debut this week. Without knowing what he will look like as he comes back from a shoulder injury that ended his last collegiate season, though, the Cubs still have to be pretty excited about how the 2025 draft class is shaping up. With Conrad and Colton Book (9th round) having not yet debuted and Connor Spencer (12th round) out for the season, I am using three tiers here to split the remaining 16 players: MLB prospects, fringe prospects, and organizational players. The draft class is showing a lot of promise, with three legit MLB prospects before their first round pick even debuts. With a relatively weak farm system, it looks like it was a much-needed infusion of talent. MLB Prospects 2nd round: Kane Kepley The Tar Heels outfielder and our No. 7 Cubs prospect has put together a really nice season in South Bend in 2026. Kepley has been almost exactly the player he was in college, sporting a low strikeout rate (13%) and a high walk rate (21%). Even if he never develops major-league average power, a true plus center fielder who doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and wreaks havoc when he does (39 stolen bases in just 67 games) looks like a player with a floor of fourth outfielder—a definite major-league contributor, and one whose best season is almost sure to be worthy of regular playing time. 4th round: Kaleb Wing The Cubs went over-slot to sign Wing, a high-school arm who saw a velo jump in his draft year. Prep arms take patience, but Wing is showing real glimpses in Myrtle Beach in his first pro season. He has a 33% strikeout rate over 6 starts and 16 1/3 quality innings. He has a long way to go, as evidenced by a 16% walk rate, but he has the stuff to make an impact on the big-league club someday. 6th round: Josiah Hartshorn Cubs fans may come to remember this draft as the Josiah Hartshorn draft. The 19-year-old outfielder flew through Low-A, walking more than he struck out with an .884 OPS, on his way to South Bend, where he continued to impress. He has an OPS over 1.000 while being over 3 years younger than the league average. It looks like the Cubs absolutely nailed this pick. They went out on a limb and paid him more than anyone has ever paid a 6th-rounder before, at $2 million. They could trade him today for a solid $15 million in value, if it came to that, so the investment has already been a titanic success. Fringe Prospects 3rd round: Dominick Reid Reid has started 12 games for Myrtle Beach and has posted a 23% strikeout rate with a 9% walk rate over 49 2/3 innings. You’d like to see sexier numbers for a college draftee in Low-A, but it could be worse. He doesn’t have premium velocity, so development of his breaking stuff is going to be necessary if he is going to have a chance at big-league innings. 7th round: Pierce Coppola Coppola has posted a nearly 35% strikeout rate over 9 starts and 36 innings in Myrtle Beach, but it comes with a 13.6% walk rate. The good news is, that's down from a 23.6% walk rate in his first taste of pro ball last year while doubling his groundball rate year over year. If the 6-foot-8 left-hander can keep improving his walk rate, he could make the Cubs look pretty smart. 8th round: Jake Knapp At almost 25 years old, Jake Knapp was the oldest player in the draft class, but he was also the 2025 ACC Pitcher of the Year. The Cubs sent him to Double-A Knoxville for his pro debut, where he has a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 14% walk rate. He had just a 4% walk rate in his draft year at UNC, but it has spiked in pro ball. If he can recapture the strike-throwing ability he showed in college, he could enter the next tier. 11th round: Eli Jerzembeck I am putting Jerzembeck in this tier largely on the back of his pedigree. A top prospect out of high school in the 2022 draft, Jerzembeck made the decision to go to South Carolina. After a solid freshman year, he just could not stay healthy and missed back-to-back seasons. He had not pitched in two full years when the Cubs took him in the 2025 draft. He's thrown 27 2/3 innings in 2026 and posted a 26.7% strikeout rate across both levels of A-ball. Having not pitched in two years, his walk rate is understandably high, but if he can recapture the strike-throwing ability he showed pre-injury as he knocks more of the rust off, he could be a real steal in the 11th round. Organizational Players 5th round: Kade Snell This pick doesn’t look awesome. Snell had a career 8% strikeout rate in the SEC, but has seen his strikeout rate soar north of 25% this season in South Bend. Pair that with a .336 slugging average and it's hard to see him making an impact at the big-league level. 10th round: Justin Stransky Maybe the hardest player to place on this list, Stransky has matching 15.7% strikeout and walk rates while throwing 27% of runners out from behind the plate. He is running a .237 BABIP (as much an indicator of contact quality as of luck, when you're in the minors) and hasn’t shown much power, but the offensive bar is low for catchers. If the Cubs like the way he handles pitching staffs, he could be in the next tier already for them. 13th round: Nate Williams Another player who was relatively hard to place, Nate Williams has a 5.82 era out of the South Bend bullpen this season. His peripheral numbers look a bit better, though, with a 27% strikeout rate and some bad batted-ball luck. Still, he looks unlikely to be anything more than a Quad-A reliever. 14th round: Kaemyn Franklin Franklin is not off to a good pro start with a 27% walk rate and 2 home runs given up over 3 2/3 innings in rookie ball. 15th round: Noah Edders Noah Edders is actually off to a pretty solid pro start, with a 26% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate this season, but he's a little old for the level in Myrtle Beach and the Cubs leaving him there in 2026 after 5 quality innings in 2025 speaks volumes about how they view him. 16th round: Riley Hunsaker Hunsaker has not been very good this season, with an ERA over 5.00 as a 23-year-old in A ball. He has an 8% walk rate but just a 21% strikeout rate and is giving up a lot of hits. Guys who don’t miss bats at that level generally aren’t prospects. 17th round: Logan Poteet Logan Poteet, like fellow catcher Justin Stransky, is hard to place. He's playing well in A-ball, with a .938 OPS, but he is slightly old for the level and has a 31.6% strikeout rate. 18th round: Connor Knox Knox has thrown only 7 2/3 innings in his debut season so far, but there might be a reason. He has a WHIP of almost 2.00 and an 18% walk rate as a 22-year-old in A-ball. 20th round: Freddy Rodriguez Rodriguez has been pretty solid for a 20th-round pick, albeit in rookie ball. He has a 26% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate in 27 1/3 innings, but keeping him in rookie ball means the Cubs probably don’t view him as much more than an organizational arm. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images As we near July and get into the full swing of trade season, it's worth going back and looking at the 2025 trade deadline to review how it went for the Cubs. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins were busy, making four trades on deadline day last year in an effort to bolster their championship hopes. Let’s go through them one by one. Trade 1: Cubs get: RHP Andrew Kittredge Orioles get: INF Wilfri De La Cruz Kittredge was exactly what the Cubs hoped for when they acquired him. He provided 21 2/3 quality innings over the final two months and appeared in five of the Cubs' eight playoff games, even starting one game as an opener. Contending team trades lottery ticket for non-contending team’s reliever is among the most common trade archetypes, and that is exactly was this was. De La Cruz has been ok in his stateside debut this season at 18 years old, walking more than he has struck out but not doing a whole lot else. This trade will truly take years to evaluate, but I will call this a win for the Cubs, right now. They understood the risks and got what they paid for. Trade 2: Cubs get: RHP Michael Soroka Nationals get: SS Ronny Cruz and OF Christian Franklin A former top prospect who reached the majors at 20 years old but constantly struggled to stay healthy, Soroka was the only starter of the three pitchers the Cubs acquired. He had a solid if unspectacular first half in Washington, but he started 16 games after not having started more than 10 since 2019, his lone All-Star season. He started exactly one game in a Cubs uniform before coming out after two innings and going on the IL until mid-September, when he came back for a few appearances out of the bullpen. Luckily, the Nationals' return has not been overwhelming since the trade. Ronny Cruz is scuffling in High-A this season with a sky-high strikeout rate. Christian Franklin was in Iowa last season and remains in Triple-A this season for the Nationals. It doesn’t look like he will be making much of an impact in the big leagues, and he would not have a role on this Cubs team. Call this one incomplete, because Soroka has pitched really well in 2026 with Arizona. Had he stayed healthy, he would have been exactly what the Cubs were looking for, but knowing the health risks, the Cubs did not give up too much. Trade 3: Cubs get: UTIL Willi Castro Twins get: RHP Ryan Gallagher and RHP Sam Armstrong The Cubs got in on the Twins' fire sale when they snagged Willi Castro to bolster their bench. It did not go as they had hoped. Castro really struggled on the North Side, with a .170/.245/.240 slash line in 110 plate appearances. He was on the playoff roster, but did not get a plate appearance despite coming in to two games. Gallagher is a 23-year-old who has spent the bulk of this season in Triple-A for the Twins, with some pretty rough results over his 10 starts. Armstrong, 25, has made 14 starts at Double-A this year, with pretty average results. Castro was not good in a Cubs uniform and, although Gallagher and Armstrong have not been good, the Cubs probably wish they still had two extra depth arms in the upper minor leagues this season. It isn’t a disaster, but it probably isn’t one the Cubs would make again, with hindsight. Trade 4: Cubs get: LHP Taylor Rogers Pirates get: OF Ivan Brethowr A steady presence out of the bullpen, the Cubs got the lefty Rogers twin from the Pirates. While he was not terrible, he got bit by the home run bug a little bit in his 17 2/3 innings of work in Cubbie blue, giving up four long balls. He pitched only one inning in the playoffs. Brethowr, a college outfielder who was drafted in 2024 in the 7th round, was in High-A for the Cubs at the time of the trade, with an OPS just north of .700. He has played 22 games in Double-A for the Pirates with a .624 OPS in 2026. The Cubs did not risk a lot in this trade to bring in the veteran, and although he didn’t pitch all that well for the Cubs, it is unlikely to come back to bite them. After a year, the Cubs' deadline looks a bit like a wash. None of the four players they acquired remain in the organization, and only Kittredge made any real impact in the playoff run. They did not give up much value, but they also did not get the playoff impact they were hoping for. If the Cubs are looking for players at this year’s deadline who will impact their playoff run, they may have to give up a little more value from what is a fairly weak farm system. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Le-Imagn Images With Daniel Palencia out, the Chicago Cubs turned to Jacob Webb in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies. Is he the de facto closer now? Should he be? Webb is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and changeup far more than any other pitches. The fastball simply has not gotten the job done this year; it's been hit harder than ever, against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Still, Webb has gotten away with it for the most part against left-handed hitters due to a changeup that has been very effective. He has not, however, seen the same results with his changeup against righties, leading to some ugly opposite-handed platoon splits. Webb seems to be searching for answers for his secondary pitch against that split. He used the sweeper as his secondary pitch to righties last season and carried that into early this season. It had pretty disastrous results early on and he has not thrown it since April 19, shelving it in favor of a curveball at that point. But he only threw the curveball until May 22 and has barely thrown it since. Although he didn’t allow a hit off of it, the average exit velocity was 96.2 mph, indicating that he was lucky with his results. Since May 22, he has used a slider as his breaking option. It’s a brief sample, but he has only allowed one single and has an exit velocity of 82.6 mph off the pitch. Clearly, Webb is still trying to figure out how to get outs against right-handed hitters. Craig Counsell knows this and game-plans around it. Jacob Webb has faced 82 lefties this season and just 53 righties. The former have taken around 48% of the PA in MLB this year, yet Webb is facing almost 61% lefties. Webb has been solid this year, and he absolutely can be useful against lefty-heavy lineups, but it seems clear he won’t be a closer if he continues to be hidden from righties. If he is expected to close games, he’s going to need to find a way to consistently win plate appearances when he has the handedness advantage. The Cubs better hope Palencia’s IL trip is a short one, lest they put Webb in a situation that exposes his fatal flaw. View full article

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images When the Cubs gave Phil Maton a two-year contract worth $14.5 million over the winter, they expected him to solidify the back end of the bullpen and be a bridge to Daniel Palencia. It was an understandable contract for a reliever who has been pretty consistent since the 2020 season. Unfortunately, the contract is not off to a good start, as Maton has not been the steadying presence the Cubs hoped. What's gone wrong for the veteran reliever this year? In 2025, Maton turned in arguably his best season yet, with the highest bWAR of his career and the lowest FIP. He lit up his Baseball Savant page in red, despite one of the slowest fastball velos in the league at 89.6 MPH. That does feel like a pitcher who will age pretty well; he was already getting away with lower velocity. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher with nearly 75% of his pitches being the curveball and cutter, he was a master at messing with hitters' timing. The new Statcast timing metrics give us some really clear examples. At just 17%, batters were on time for Maton’s curveball less often last year than on any other major-league pitcher’s pitch. Only two pitches were under 22%! When you narrow the list to only fastball pitch types, hitters were on time for just 53% of Maton’s fastballs, good for 4th-best in MLB. His sinker and sweeper were less impressive, but he just didn’t throw them as much. With him throwing 38% curveball and 36% cutter, he rarely let hitters be on time with their swings. So far in 2026, Maton’s curveball has been even better, at a paltry 11% on-time swings. This is great! His fastballs tell a different story, though. Batters are no longer late on his cutter or sinker, with both dropping 10 percentage points. His fastball velo, however, is higher than it was last year. You read that right. He is throwing his fastballs harder and yet, he is getting many fewer late swings. What gives? The clearest issue is Maton’s pitch mix. He is throwing 10% fewer curveballs and has replaced those pitches with fastball pitch types. Batters are also swinging at only half of his curveballs, a rate lower than any year since 2020. Batters seem to have decided it doesn’t benefit them to swing at the curveball that was the highest run value curveball in the major leagues last year. I can’t blame them! The Cubs and Maton have decided to throw that pitch less often this year, despite it still generating the best results of any of his pitches. Since he is throwing less breaking stuff, hitters are able to time the fastballs better; hence the jump in the number of on-time swings on his fastballs. Why the Cubs would spend the money to acquire a veteran reliever coming off his best season and have him go away from what made him so valuable is anyone’s guess. If the Cubs want to get the Maton they signed, they should let him be the pitcher he was last year. Unless and until they do, the floggings will continue, and morale will not improve. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images When Craig Counsell became the Cubs manager, he didn’t make immediate, significant changes to the coaching staff he inherited from David Ross. In fact, three seasons later, Dustin Kelly and Tommy Hottovy both remain in the lead skill roles they held under David Ross. However, Counsell exercised more freedom with his base coaches, to implement his defensive and baserunning strategy. The dust had barely settled on his first season when he made his first true addition to the coaching staff, going and getting Quintin Berry from his old staff in Milwaukee to be his new third-base coach. Berry’s coaching career started in Milwaukee the day he retired. A journeyman outfielder who played in just 132 big-league games but nearly 1,200 minor-league games, Berry was hired as the Brewers’ minor-league outfield and baserunning coordinator. After two years in that role, he was promoted to the major-league staff as first base coach, where he continued to work on outfield and baserunning until the Cubs hired him to do the same for them. Counsell clearly saw a need to improve the outfield and baserunning in his first year at the helm of the Cubs, and after seeing Berry’s impact in Milwaukee, he made him a priority. When Berry was named first-base coach in Milwaukee, they had just finished 29th in MLB in baserunning runs during the shortened 2020 season. Granted, they were 27th in team sprint speed, but still, that's not the kind of baseball Counsell wanted to play. It was the first year since his very first in Milwaukee that the Brewers finished under .500, and the first time in his entire tenure that his team had been below 17th in baserunning runs. In Berry’s first season on the big-league staff, they jumped to 8th in baserunning runs despite still being one of the slowest teams in the majors. We are seeing a similar impact with the Cubs this year. Of the 12 slowest teams in the major leagues, only the Cubs have positive baserunning runs, and the Cubs are in the top 8 in all of baseball. The Brewers, by comparison, are one of the fastest teams in the majors and are 13th in baserunning runs this season. They did remain a fantastic baserunning team last year, their first year without Berry on staff, but they have fallen off this year. Berry’s impact on outfield defense looks similar. In his first year on the big-league staff in Milwaukee, the Brewers outfield jumped from 14th to 5th in outs above average and were top 3 for his entire tenure, including a pair of top two outfields in his last two seasons. The Cubs, by contrast, were 20th in outfield OAA during that same time period. While they snuck inside the top 10 in Counsell’s first year, they jumped to 2nd after hiring Berry and are currently in 1st this year. While his impact on the outfield as a whole is clearly quantifiable, so is his impact on individual players, especially in the jumps they get. Statcast combines three components to calculate an outfielder's jump. Their reaction, or their first step, is how much ground they gain during the first 1.5 seconds. The burst is the next 1.5 seconds after that, or their acceleration/explosiveness. Lastly, is the route they take to the ball and how direct it is. A look at the leaderboards for each of these three components shows that reaction and burst are much more important to an outfielder's value than their route is. Pete Crow-Armstrong was solid in his first full year in the bigs, but he took the leap to cement himself as one of the best defenders in baseball under Berry. Crow-Armstrong sacrificed some route efficiency to gain more ground with his first step, and it paid off massively. Seiya Suzuki went from a below-average outfielder who served as the designated hitter more frequently than he used his outfield glove the past two seasons to a top-5 right fielder in baseball (depending on the metric you believe) under Berry, by improving his reaction and burst. Suzuki didn’t get faster—actually, he's the slowest he has ever been—but his reaction and burst have taken a large jump in his age-31 season. Although Ian Happ won 4 consecutive gold gloves from 2022-2025, Statcast defensive metrics largely disagree. He earned -7 OAA in 2023 and improved to -1 in Counsell’s first year, before putting up a 0 (average) under Berry in 2025. His jump has improved as well, but unlike Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong, he has done it by improving his routes. How valuable is Berry? He has helped Crow-Armstrong become the best outfielder in baseball. He has helped Suzuki go from a DH to a plus defender in right. He has helped turn the Cubs into the best defensive outfield in baseball. He has helped make the Cubs a top baserunning team despite a slower roster. Add to all of this that the main division rival Brewers have gotten worse at running the bases and playing outfield since Berry left, and Counsell’s first true hire looks like an incredibly impactful net positive for the Cubs. View full article

Image courtesy of South Bend Cubs | MiLB.com Not to sound like a broken record, but the Chicago Cubs' pitching pipeline is a bit bleak and, until the draft and/or trade deadline, is likely to remain that way. With relatively few standouts, May’s list looks a lot like April’s list, with three of the four pitchers repeating. Without further ado, here are May’s Cubs minor-league pitchers of the month. Ranking Cubs' Best Minor-League Pitchers in May Honorable Mention: Brooks Caple - RHP - Knoxville Caple repeats as an honorable mention this month after earning a promotion from South Bend to Knoxville and not missing a beat. In his five starts in South Bend, he put up a 26:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21.2 innings. In his first four appearances in Double-A, he has 23 strikeouts and just four walks in 20.2 innings of work. His velocity continues to tick upwards since he was drafted, as he now tops out at 98 miles per hour. For a Cubs team starved for pitching at the higher levels, the 6’6” right-hander has forced his way into the at-large conversation. Third Place: Mason McGwire - RHP - South Bend Last month’s winner of this award, McGwire was again very good in five appearances in Myrtle Beach with 27 strikeouts against just five walks in 18 innings of work. McGwire earned a promotion to finish the month with South Bend, where he threw three scoreless innings with six strikeouts and gave up just one hit in his lone appearance. McGwire continues to put up impressive strikeout and walk numbers in his first action since 2024. While only 22, he could force the Cubs hand if he continues to put up similar numbers following his promotion to South Bend. Runner-up: Pierce Coppola - LHP - Myrtle Beach Drafted in the seventh round last year, Coppola debuted with eight innings in Myrtle Beach where he struck out 14 but also walked nine batters. To start this season, he was on the DL. Not the IL, the DL as in the Development List. It appears as though it may have worked based on the early returns. The massive 6’8” lefty made five starts in May and had a nearly 40% k rate in 20 innings while allowing a paltry .167 batting average. The former New Jersey prep standout and Florida Gator still had a walk rate of nearly 15%, far too high, but if he can continue to stay healthy and improve his command, he may make the Cubs an offer they can’t refuse. Winner: Dominick Reid - RHP - Myrtle Beach Reid was runner-up in April but he wins the column this month. Last month, I highlighted the disparity between his first nine innings and his last nine innings; in his five starts in May, Reid resembled the pitcher he was in his first two appearances of the season much more than the three starts to end April. He averaged 5.0 innings per start, a relative rarity in minor-league baseball nowadays. In those 25 innings. he racked up 27 strikeouts against just 8 walks. Reid had one subpar start where he allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks in just four innings. In his other four starts, he turned in 21 innings with 25 punchouts, allowing just two earned runs on nine hits and six walks. After 107.2 total innings in three years in college, Reid is still raw and developing, so inconsistency is to be expected. If he can continue to gain consistency with his breaking ball to go along with his quality changeup, he should continue to emerge as a legitimate prospect for the Cubs. View full article

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images With an ERA over 5.00 and peripherals just as bad, Jameson Taillon has struggled this year. As we get deeper into the season and closer to the trade deadline, the likelihood Taillon’s season can be turned around is one of the most crucial questions the Cubs need to answer. Let’s dig into what has gone most wrong for Taillon this year. Six weeks ago, I covered the decline in fastball velocity and change in arsenal to compensate for it. Taillon’s fastball and sinker both were 0.5 MPH or more higher in May than in April, and his changeup got much better results in May than in April. Yet, it didn’t help. Taillon’s slugging percentage allowed went up significantly in May on fastballs and sinkers. His cutter regressed, and now all of his fastballs and offspeed pitches (4seam, sinker, cutter, change) are allowing a slugging percentage over .600, backed up by peripherals. His breaking stuff (curve and sweeper) has been fantastic in both months this year, but he almost never throws those pitches when he falls behind hitters in the count. Therein lies a larger problem. Last season, Taillon was absolutely incredible when he was behind in the count, holding batters to a .176 batting average and a .361 slugging. Shockingly, he actually was better than when he got ahead in the count, allowing .215 and a .381 slugging. This wasn’t anything he had ever done before and was ripe for regression to the mean—which is exactly what has happened, and then some. He has been absolutely dominant when ahead in the count this year and abysmal when he has fallen behind. Batters are hitting .132/.276 when they fall behind and .303/.645 when they get ahead. In addition to allowing those sky-high numbers when he falls behind in the count, Taillon is running the highest walk rate of his career, at nearly 8%. Taillon, who has never had a first pitch strike percentage under 61.7% and who has never thrown less than 65.7% first pitch strikes in a Cubs uniform, is throwing 56% strikes. He's finished a calendar month with below 50% of his first pitches in the zone just 3 times in a Cubs uniform. Those are August 2025 and April and May of 2026. He's falling behind in counts at a rate he has never done before. When you fall behind in counts, hitters make you pay, and they have made Taillon pay all season long. While he has decreased his fastball usage on the first pitch this season in favor of more breaking and offspeed stuff, he hasn’t been able to throw them for strikes often enough. Taillon’s breaking stuff is in the zone just 36% of the time, and his offspeed just 31% of the time on the first pitch. Even the fastball is in the zone just 51% of the time. Throwing fewer pitches in the zone could work, if you're getting batters to chase more, but batters are just not chasing fastballs or breaking balls on the first pitch from Taillon. One silver lining though: batters are chasing an absurd 54% of offspeed pitches on the first pitch. The bad news is, he throws offspeed just 6% of the time on that first pitch. That leaves us with a pretty clear picture of Taillon in 2026, and why he is getting beat up. No pitcher can survive constantly behind in the count, especially one that lacks premium stuff. Is his lack of first pitch strikes mechanical? There are a few slight differences, so it’s always possible, but nothing truly glaring, and this issue is across the board. A change in approach? I really hope not, it's never really a good idea to throw fewer strikes. A loss in confidence? Perhaps he's trying to be more fine with a loss in velocity. Is this how it ends for the veteran? Anyone’s guess is as good as mine. I think Taillon could benefit from throwing more offspeed on the first pitch, but there is clearly regression coming for the 54% chase rate on offspeed if the frequency with which he throws it increases. It won’t solve all of his problems, but stealing a few more first-pitch strikes is a must if you aren’t going to pound the zone. Getting back to throwing more first-pitch strikes has to be the number one focus for Taillon if he can be counted on to play a role for the Cubs down the stretch in 2026. If he can't get ahead in the count like he used to, the Cubs may need to look elsewhere. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images In April’s edition of MiLB hitters of the month, Pedro Ramirez took home the top honor and found himself in the big leagues by the end of May. There is almost no chance that latter feat will be repeated this month, but there were some standout performances in the Chicago Cubs' farm system by an almost entirely new list of hitters. Ranking Cubs' Best Minor-League Hitters in May Honorable Mention: Alex Ramirez - OF - Knoxville Once a $2 million signing out of the Dominican Republic by the Mets, Ramirez was released in June of 2025 after his third consecutive subpar season. Ramirez still boasts much of the raw talent that made him a top-five prospect for the Mets; plus athleticism including bat speed, running speed, and arm strength. The question has long been: Can he make enough contact to show off those tools? In April, Ramirez turned in a .243/.304/.344 slash line with a 26% strikeout rate and looked a lot like the hitter the Mets gave up on after adding him to their 40-man roster. Then, the calendar turned to May. Ramirez slashed his strikeout rate in half and hit .368/.398/.563. The 6’4” outfielder is still only 23 years old; if he can sustain that production and prove that he can curb his whiffing habits, he could end up being a valuable signing for the Cubs. Third Place: Cole Mathis - 3B - South Bend Mathis ascended to the top 10 in our top prospect rankings after homering seven times in 14 April games in Myrtle Beach, earning a promotion to South Bend. He narrowly missed this list last month, after nine-game run in South Bend that included hitting safely in six of those contests but also a 35% strikeout rate. Although he missed a week in May, he turned in a quality month worthy of this list. Mathis slashed .280/.377/.560, driving in 14 runs in 13 games. More importantly, he cut his strikeout rate to 26% while maintaining his high 18% walk rate. While he still has more work to do, that is still a big step in the right direction. If he can continue to decrease the punchout totals, the 2024 second-round pick could find himself with another promotion before too long. Runner-up: Kane Kepley - OF - South Bend Kepley did not have a great April, hitting just .220 in 18 games with a 25% strikeout rate in South Bend. Entering the year as the Cubs' eighth-ranked prospect, the 5’8” outfielder has a hit-first profile with limited power, so his April was a relatively alarming follow-up to an outstanding pro debut in 2025. In May, Kepley thankfully looked more like that 2025 version that the Cubs used their second-round pick on. Kepley hit .304/.438/.451 with 24 walks to just 15 strikeouts and added 15 stolen bases to his ledger. This is Kepley at his best—high average and on-base while providing plus defense and baserunning. Another month like this and he could very well find himself patrolling center field in Knoxville. Winner: Josiah Hartshorn - OF - South Bend The only player to show up on both 2026 editions of this list, Hartshorn got a well-earned promotion to South Bend during the last week of May. The 2025 prep outfielder did not slow down once the calendar turned, continuing to walk more than he struck out in Myrtle Beach before a very impressive six-game run in South Bend to end the month. After his promotion, Hartshorn homered twice and drove in 10 runs and walked as many times as he struck out, all while being more than three years younger than the average age in the Midwest League. Still just 19, Hartshorn is proving he was worth the over-slot bonus the Cubs doled out to keep him away from Texas A&M. View full article

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Is Ben Brown here to stay? Yes, it has only been four starts and 19 total innings since he moved to the rotation. Still, there are reasons to be very excited. There are the results: a 23/6 K/BB ratio with zero home runs allowed against some quality opponents. Holding those opponents to a .171/.247/.200 slash line is great work, but is it sustainable? In 2024, Ben Brown debuted with pretty impressive results before a stress fracture in his neck ended his season in June. When he came back in 2025, he struggled to find his footing, although his peripheral numbers looked a bit better than his results. His fastball velocity decreased and his breaking ball was dropping almost two inches less. Both were likely due to an increase in his arm angle from 42 degrees to 45 degrees. He just didn’t look like the same pitcher. This season, he looks to have fully rebounded. As Matt Trueblood wrote about Ben Brown, on his re-entry into the Cubs rotation, Brown’s arm angle has lowered. It is now back to where it was in 2024 at 42 degrees. In turn, his fastball velocity jumped back to where it was and he is getting that depth back on his breaking ball. In addition to looking healthy, Brown has improved his arsenal. Much has been written about the new sinker he has unleashed this year, both on this website and others, and it still might not be enough. There has long been a line of inquiry with the right-hander that, in some form or another, went as such: "What if Ben Brown had a third pitch?" Well, we no longer have to wonder. He's got one, and the results have been glorious. Brown’s usage of the sinker and improved arsenal has morphed him from a fly-ball pitcher to a ground-ball pitcher. He has increased his ground-ball rate from roughly 37% in 2024 to 43% in 2025 all the way to 53% this season. He went from the 22nd percentile to 90th percentile in that category in just two seasons. It isn’t just the sinker either; Brown is giving up an average launch angle of three degrees on his four seamer, down from 16 degrees last year and 18 degrees in 2024. Batters are just having a much harder time lifting the ball against Brown. Slugging happens when batters hit the ball in the air and Brown has done an impressive job of limiting that despite allowing exit velocities in the 31st percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 35th percentile. Giving up hard contact matters a lot less when it is on the ground, especially with the way the Cubs play defense. The best part about all of this is that, even if Brown falters in the rotation as he has to turn the lineup over multiple times, the Cubs already know he can dominate in a relief role. No matter what, he'll provide value to this pitching staff. But if he can stick around in the starting five and chew up lots of quality innings... well, the North Siders may be able to stay afloat after all. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images With an expected batting average under .200 and an xwOBA under .300, one would think Miguel Amaya is in danger of losing his roster spot, especially with slightly below-average defense at a premium position. While he probably won’t push Carson Kelly to reclaim equal playing time any time soon, though, Amaya is holding his own. He has been 14% better than league average at the plate, despite his underlying metrics. Is it a mirage? Although he only came to the plate 103 times, Amaya was 31% better than league average last season despite walking only 4 times. He had never had a walk rate that low before, but because he combined that with successfully pulling the ball in the air, his numbers didn’t take a hit. In 2026, he has a career-high walk rate (12%), but he's back to pulling the ball in the air less. Is it either/or, or can he do both? In what appears to be a response to the loss of bat speed he's suffered, Amaya has swung a lot less frequently this year than he did in 2025. While cutting his chase rate from 36.8% to 27% is great, it has also come with cutting his swing rate at pitches in the zone by a similar percentage. Well, maybe that means he is taking more pitches around the edges, right? Here's his swing rate by pitch location for 2025: And here's the same image for 2026: As you can see, Amaya stopped swinging at pitches right down the middle, or “meatballs” as Statcast classifies them. In short, this is likely why his expected numbers are as low as they are. Those are pitches in the highest run value location, and Amaya is only swinging at 54% of them. Out of 337 hitters that have at least 75 plate appearances this year, that is good for 330th. Another factor that is causing the difference in his underlying statistics is his contact quality. That's not surprising, once you consider that he's swinging in areas of the zone where one is less likely to barrel it up. There was ways to find hits with swings at pitches on the edges, but the damage comes mostly when you pounce on a mistake. Not quite organized in his understanding of the zone this year, Amaya isn't doing that. Put it all together and it looks like he is struggling to adapt to this new, more passive approach. To be clear, sporting a .728 OPS as a backup catcher is a good thing. But his underlying metrics portend a regression to the mean is coming for Amaya. Correcting his contact quality and getting back to pulling the ball in the air depends on attacking pitches that permit those results, so if Amaya wants to fight off regression, the easiest path is to start swinging at those meatballs. View full article

Image courtesy of MiLB.com The cupboard is not quite stocked with pitching for the Chicago Cubs. Per Baseball America, just five pitchers rank among the top 20 prospects for the Cubs, with just one in the top 12. Brandon Birdsell (14th), is not expected to pitch this season after elbow surgery. Jaxon Wiggins (third) hit the IL on April 15th with elbow soreness. No one on the following list is in the upper minor leagues, so this is a system that will require patience on the pitching side. With April officially in the books, which prospects stood out and increased their stock? Honorable Mention: Brooks Caple (RHP) — South Bend Taken in the ninth round in 2024, Caple made his debut in 2025 with a good seven-start stretch in Myrtle Beach before getting promoted to South Bend and turning in 14 starts to finish his season. Back to South Bend to start 2026, Caple had a quality month on the bump. In his four April starts, Caple posted a 24-to-3 strikeout:walk ratio while limiting opponents to just six runs on 12 hits in 18.2 innings. Near the top of the Midwest league in WHIP and strikeouts, Caple has both increased his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate, an excellent combination. Third Place: Edwardo Melendez (RHP) — Myrtle Beach An older international signing at 20 years of age out of the Dominican Republic, Melendez made his debut stateside in 2025 with stops in Arizona and Myrtle Beach after a year in the Dominican Summer League. While consistently posting high strikeout numbers and limiting hits, Melendez has paired that with extremely high walk rates that led to unimpressive box score lines. He looks to have potentially unlocked something so far in 2026 as he walked just seven in his 15.2 innings between the bullpen and the rotation in Myrtle Beach, a huge improvement. That, combined with 23 strikeouts and just seven hits allowed, has led to a 1.15 ERA in April for the 22-year-old that should open some eyes. Runner-up: Dominick Reid (RHP) — Myrtle Beach With Jostin Florentino (15th) and Kaleb Wing (17th) not yet debuting in affiliated ball this season, the only Cubs top-20 prospect entering 2026 to qualify for this list winds up the runner up. Drafted in the third round of last season’s draft out of Abilene Christian in Texas, Reid did not make his professional debut until this season. Starting the season in Myrtle Beach, Reid made five starts for the Pelicans in April. In 18.1 innings, he struck out 21 while allowing 10 runs on 19 hits and 7 walks. Reid opened the season with nine scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against just one walk. The average ERA in the Carolina league is 5.38, so his 4.91 ERA looks better with that context. The hope is that as the season progresses Reid can settle in a bit and find the middle ground between his first nine innings of the month and the last nine innings. Winner: Mason McGwire (RHP) — Myrtle Beach You may have heard, Mark McGwire’s son is racking up strikeouts on the mound for the Cubs. An eighth-round pick out of high school in 2022, Little Mac is pitching for the first time since 2024 due to injuries, and he is turning some heads. He started the month in the bullpen and finished with two starts, striking out 18 and allowing just two runs on five hits in 12 innings. His velocity looks to be up higher than it was pre-injury and he has doubled his strikeout rate and cut his walk rate in half in his return to the mound. While the 22-year-old looks to be years away from Wrigley, the thought of Big Mac’s son pitching in Cubbie blue is pretty entertaining. View full article