Matt Shaw Is Swinging Slower and Finally Looks Like the Top Prospect the Cubs Were Promised

Earlier this week, our Matt Trueblood took a look at how a change in stance has allowed Nico Hoerner to tap into more practical power. However, Hoerner is not the only Chicago Cub in 2026 who has bucked conventional trends yet produced much better results based on a stance change. Enter Matt Shaw. 

The 2025 version of Matt Shaw was a below-average hitter, as a quick look at his Savant page would tell you. Going into the offseason, he had significant work to do to remain in the Cubs' plans in 2026 and beyond. A third baseman with third-percentile exit velocity and 16th-percentile bat speed is no one’s ideal corner infielder. When the Cubs signed Alex Bregman, Shaw was ticketed for a utility role. To say he has embraced that role would be an understatement, but not necessarily in the way you might expect. 

High offensive expectations generally come with playing the hot corner, regardless of size (see Bregman, Alex). Shaw spent last year trying to fill those expectations. He pulled the ball at a 40.9% clip, including 21.8% of the time in the air. Those are quality numbers, unless your bat speed is below average, which Shaw’s was at just 69.6 mph. At that level, pulling the ball in the air is going to lead to some very low xBA and xSLG figures.

Shaw’s offseason plan could have consisted of a lot of work on his bat speed, and many players would have taken that path as bat speed and EV numbers have become highly valued in front offices. Shaw, however, chose an alternative route. In fact, he chose the opposite route. Instead of trying to force his way into the Cubs' plans by swinging faster, the former top prospect has made some slight tweaks and leaned into what defined his profile as a first-round draft pick: his hit tool. 

As a prospect, Shaw was known for his knack for finding barrels while limiting strikeouts, a very valuable combination. In 2024, Baseball America said as much: “His quick hands, strong forearms, and exceptional barrel accuracy allow him to consistently drive balls hard to all fields.”

Yet that wasn't the Matt Shaw the Cubs got in 2025. With his pull rate of nearly 41% and a 21.5% strikeout rate that was considerably higher than in the minor leagues and in college, he looked like a different player altogether. This could very well be due to the difficulty jump to the major leagues, but a 63rd-percentile whiff rate hints otherwise. It could also be due to a change in approach at the big-league level, namely trying to pull the ball in the air and be a slugging corner infielder. The evidence from the early returns on the 2026 season point to the latter.

Shaw has moved back in the box more than three inches; only a dozen players are deeper in the box in 2026 than him. That depth has in turn moved his intercept point of the ball back nearly five inches, from 1.9 inches in front of the plate to -2.7 inches in front of the plate. Instead of spending the offseason swinging faster and catching the ball out front, he is letting the ball travel deeper and trusting his barrel accuracy to produce higher EVs.  

These changes have completely transformed his profile from last year. His pull% has plummeted to a sub-30% mark and he is back to spraying the ball all over the field. In fact, his intercept point looks eerily similar to Luis Arraez, as does his batted ball profile, but with 5 mph more bat speed than Arraez.

If that sounds like an unfortunate comparison, think of it like this: Shaw is performing like three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, but with more pop, 90th-percentile sprint speed, and far better defense. That sure sounds like the prospect the Cubs expected to get, and this development should have them very excited for the future.