General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Old Style]

So who is left from the WS team? Hendricks? Anyone else?

[WrigleyField 22]

So who is left from the WS team? Hendricks? Anyone else?

David Ross (kind of counts :dontknow: )

[PackLandVA]

So who is left from the WS team? Hendricks? Anyone else?

David Ross (kind of counts :dontknow: )

 

That's one more (or two) than is left from the 1908 team.

[CubinNY]

Given the PR spin by the Ricketts (Crane Kenny, PTR publicist/VP of Business), if Jed does not manage to upgrade the team and sits on the money that is supposed there is he, "on the hot seat" if the Cubs are again a 77 win team?

[Cubswin11]

Jed should come out and ask why Ricketts and Crane decided to take the legacy/long term play in the Marquee deal that required money put in and little money up front vs doing a comcast/Ballys/etc deal where they just got paid when we had our core so we had a bag to supplement them.

[UMFan83]

Given the PR spin by the Ricketts (Crane Kenny, PTR publicist/VP of Business), if Jed does not manage to upgrade the team and sits on the money that is supposed there is he, "on the hot seat" if the Cubs are again a 77 win team?

 

Seems like it? It does seem the owners are expecting money to be spent, probably aren’t to picky on who or what (outside of maybe a big name or two to market) since that’s Hoyer’s job. They might not even be a 77 win team if he doesn’t do some stuff

 

Yep, the reports that came out last week plus the Crane interview leave it pretty obvious. This is a franchise that has been cautious and calculated about setting expectations about individual offseasons and using vague statements like 'the money will be there when needed' to describe their future payrolls. The narrative has changed completely now based on the things they've said. They had to know that they were dramatically raising fan expectations. And now instead of 90% ownership blame, 10% FO blame (on twitter at least), its reversed.

[17 Seconds]

Given the PR spin by the Ricketts (Crane Kenny, PTR publicist/VP of Business), if Jed does not manage to upgrade the team and sits on the money that is supposed there is he, "on the hot seat" if the Cubs are again a 77 win team?

 

Seems like it? It does seem the owners are expecting money to be spent, probably aren’t to picky on who or what (outside of maybe a big name or two to market) since that’s Hoyer’s job. They might not even be a 77 win team if he doesn’t do some stuff

 

Yep, the reports that came out last week plus the Crane interview leave it pretty obvious. This is a franchise that has been cautious and calculated about setting expectations about individual offseasons and using vague statements like 'the money will be there when needed' to describe their future payrolls. The narrative has changed completely now based on the things they've said. They had to know that they were dramatically raising fan expectations. And now instead of 90% ownership blame, 10% FO blame (on twitter at least), its reversed.

 

seems like they know jed is a wuss and thought it would be easy to call his bluff and shift the blame

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Seems like it? It does seem the owners are expecting money to be spent, probably aren’t to picky on who or what (outside of maybe a big name or two to market) since that’s Hoyer’s job. They might not even be a 77 win team if he doesn’t do some stuff

 

Yep, the reports that came out last week plus the Crane interview leave it pretty obvious. This is a franchise that has been cautious and calculated about setting expectations about individual offseasons and using vague statements like 'the money will be there when needed' to describe their future payrolls. The narrative has changed completely now based on the things they've said. They had to know that they were dramatically raising fan expectations. And now instead of 90% ownership blame, 10% FO blame (on twitter at least), its reversed.

 

seems like they know jed is a wuss and thought it would be easy to call his bluff and shift the blame

 

Seems like a bunch of dumb fucks all ping-ponging off of each other.

[17 Seconds]

 

Yep, the reports that came out last week plus the Crane interview leave it pretty obvious. This is a franchise that has been cautious and calculated about setting expectations about individual offseasons and using vague statements like 'the money will be there when needed' to describe their future payrolls. The narrative has changed completely now based on the things they've said. They had to know that they were dramatically raising fan expectations. And now instead of 90% ownership blame, 10% FO blame (on twitter at least), its reversed.

 

seems like they know jed is a wuss and thought it would be easy to call his bluff and shift the blame

 

Seems like a bunch of dumb horsefeathers all ping-ponging off of each other.

 

we'll never get it, but i'd love to hear theo's candid thoughts on all this

[Sammy Sofa]

 

seems like they know jed is a wuss and thought it would be easy to call his bluff and shift the blame

 

Seems like a bunch of dumb horsefeathers all ping-ponging off of each other.

 

we'll never get it, but i'd love to hear theo's candid thoughts on all this

 

Just get him drunk. You know he's the type.

[champaignchris]

 

seems like they know jed is a wuss and thought it would be easy to call his bluff and shift the blame

 

Seems like a bunch of dumb horsefeathers all ping-ponging off of each other.

 

we'll never get it, but i'd love to hear theo's candid thoughts on all this

 

Didn’t he walk away from several million dollars on the last year of his contract? That in itself spoke pretty loudly.

[CyHawk_Cub]

It was $10 million, I think.

[Bertz]

 

These are generally kinder to the Cubs than the Steamer projections already live on Fangraphs. On the position player side, it's a lot higher on Swanson and Wisdom, but lower on most of the young guys (including Morel and Mervis unfortunately), and most of the marginal/depth guys. The latter I expected as anecdotally Steamer seems to think essentially everyone in organized baseball would throw up at least 1 WAR in full playing time.

 

On the pitching side, ZiPS is much higher on the top of the rotation. Stroman and Steele get fairly soft inning projections, but their rate numbers are super strong. The depth guys, including Wicks and Brown, generally all look fairly decent as well. They all project to between 1-1.5 WAR if given 120 IP. Smyly is an exception, he gets a VERY horsefeathers projection.

 

The reliever group is relatively strong. Alzolay, Thompson, and Leiter all are projected as swingmen who put up 1+ WAR in 80-100 IP. Dan also notes in the writeup that Leiter projects to a 3.07 ERA if he codes him as a pure short reliever, have to imagine Adbert and Keegan would get similar bumps. Wick, Heuer, Hughes, Leeper, and Boxberger all project as solid but unspectacular 7th inning types. Jeremiah Estrada gets a very strong projection, easily the best of the pure 1 inning guys.

 

Overall promising stuff. I think from looking at this you'd probably want to add two more bats to the 1B/DH mix rather than just one, and stretch to add a late inning reliever even if the price is somewhat prohibitive. But this is a team that's likely to project right in the middle of that 5th/6th seed scrum after the rest of the expected offseason moves are made.

[Bull]

Was it news that Henricks may not be ready for opening day? I don’t remember hearing that explicitly stated before.

[PriorFighter]

With Tim Stebbins being laid off, Cubs Talk Podcast is not going to be as good. Say what you will, but I liked the banter on that show. Curious what you guys think the best Cubs podcasts are or who has the best coverage outside some of the known names like Bleacher Report, BCB, Cubs Insider, etc.?

[Bertz]

Was it news that Henricks may not be ready for opening day? I don’t remember hearing that explicitly stated before.

 

I think this weekend was the first time they said it outright, but they'd really been pumping the brakes on expectations for him all offseason so I think they've expected for a while.

[Bertz]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

 

I think I'd go something like this:

 

LF - Happ

RF - Suzuki

SS - Swanson

RF - Bellinger

1B - Mancini

DH - Hosmer

3B - Wisdom/Morel

2B - Hoerner

C - Gomes

 

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

 

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

 

2B - Hoerner

DH - Hosmer

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

1B - Mancini

CF - Bellinger

3B - Wisdom

C - Gomes

 

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

[champaignchris]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

 

I think I'd go something like this:

 

LF - Happ

RF - Suzuki

SS - Swanson

RF - Bellinger

1B - Mancini

DH - Hosmer

3B - Wisdom/Morel

2B - Hoerner

C - Gomes

 

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

 

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

 

2B - Hoerner

DH - Hosmer

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

1B - Mancini

CF - Bellinger

3B - Wisdom

C - Gomes

 

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

 

The only real platoon opportunity I see is at catcher. Gomes mashes lefties. Barnhart hits righties better than Gomes does, but it’s not as pronounced. I’ll be curious if they play the catcher based on who’s pitching for the Cubs or who’s pitching for the opponent.

 

If/when Mervis comes up, there will be some platoon opportunities at 1B/DH.

 

Looking at handedness, Madrigal would be far more useful if he were a left handed hitter. His only place on this team right now seems to be insurance against Hoerner or Swanson getting hurt.

[Cubswin11]

Vs RHP I think I’d do something like this. Lots of L/R balance and blends the OBP/Power/Contact guys back to back.

 

Happ LF

Suzuki RF

Hosmer 1B/DH

Swanson SS

Mancini/Mervis DH1B

Nico 2B

Bellinger CF

Wisdom/Morel/Mckinstry/Mastrobuoni 3B (pick the best matchup for the day)

Gomes/Barnhart C

[Bull]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

 

I think I'd go something like this:

 

LF - Happ

RF - Suzuki

SS - Swanson

RF - Bellinger

1B - Mancini

DH - Hosmer

3B - Wisdom/Morel

2B - Hoerner

C - Gomes

 

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

 

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

 

2B - Hoerner

DH - Hosmer

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

SS - Swanson

1B - Mancini

CF - Bellinger

3B - Wisdom

C - Gomes

 

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

 

The only real platoon opportunity I see is at catcher. Gomes mashes lefties. Barnhart hits righties better than Gomes does, but it’s not as pronounced. I’ll be curious if they play the catcher based on who’s pitching for the Cubs or who’s pitching for the opponent.

 

If/when Mervis comes up, there will be some platoon opportunities at 1B/DH.

 

Looking at handedness, Madrigal would be far more useful if he were a left handed hitter. His only place on this team right now seems to be insurance against Hoerner or Swanson getting hurt.

I think that’s a yes to both. It will be by Cubs pitcher, but if they really want the other in the lineup, that one will DH.

[cl smooth]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

[Backtobanks]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

That's pretty much what I've been reading.

[Bertz]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.

Coming into the offseason they were at 74

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

 

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

[CubinNY]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.

Coming into the offseason they were at 74

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

 

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

 

I hate these analogies, but it's a high-floor, low-ceiling team. If things break well for the Cubs and they are in contention, they can use some of their vaunted depth in the minors to maybe get them to 90 or so wins.

[Bull]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.

Coming into the offseason they were at 74

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

 

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

I think you have to also consider that they were better in the last half than the first half, making that 74 perhaps not the true baseline.