General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Bertz]

 

I know I can get annoying harping on "Hey look at all that shiny depth!" but I think this graph really illustrates why. Every playoff team was on the right handed half of the graph, and the ones on that side that didn't make the playoffs all barely missed the playoffs (Brewers), would be pretty far to the left on the pitching version of this graph (Dbacks, Twins, Orioles), or in the case of the Giants just had the misfortune of having their skulls stomped in by the Dodgers.

 

I don't think it gets you very far into October, but being solid everywhere is a surprisingly effective recipe for making the playoffs.

[UMFan83]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-national-league/

 

ZiPs has them at 78 wins here

 

Aren't zips projections typically more conservative for teams that focus on defense and run prevention? Or is that just something I'm making up in my head?

[Bertz]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-national-league/

 

ZiPs has them at 78 wins here

 

Aren't zips projections typically more conservative for teams that focus on defense and run prevention? Or is that just something I'm making up in my head?

 

No, not so much. I think if you're looking for nits to pick there's two. First, the depth chart for the team on Fangraphs currently has several fairly silly choices. Dan's system will move guys up/down the chart within each simulation based on their performance (which is why this is so much more accurate than their live updating standings), but still if you're starting with several faulty assumptions it's going to have an impact.

 

Second, some of the Cubs pitchers have fairly short track records behind their 2022 performance, but have real under the hood changes and data-driven reasons to think they're real and substantive. Wesneski is top of the list, but like Smyly and Sampson project as basically replacement level and it's pretty easy to justify them well north of that. Projection systems base their opinion on a longer track record, and they should, but if a pitcher drastically alters their arsenal you don't necessarily need three years or 400 innings to tell there's been a real talent level change.

 

But generally whether it's 78 or 82 doesn't change much big picture. For the team to really be in it next year you're going to need a couple of major surprises. Something like two of the following:

 

1. The starting outfield to be awesome. Whether that's from one star performance and two solid ones, or all three guys being at or near All Star level, but through some means getting 10+ WAR from the 3 everyday guys

2. Strong (2.5+ WAR) performance from multiple youths. Morel and Wesneski seem most likely, but for the first time in years Iowa is pretty loaded with talent, so these performances could just as easily come from Mervis, Davis, Amaya, Kilian, etc.

3. Hottovy Devil magic to make a few major impacts. Tommy's shown he can essentially turn straw into a quality 8th inning guy, but we need bigger. Maybe that's Taillon’s new slider letting him bump up against the 4 WAR mark. Maybe it's fixing Hendricks. Maybe it's getting Wesneski to just continue what he did last September without major regression. But we need someone(s) to step up such that our top 4 SPs account for 10-12 WAR

[CubinNY]

I agree, with their depth the Cubs are a very solidly mediocre team. With a little luck and and natural progression from any number of guys they could be a good team. But barring a series of injuries or a big breakout they are not going to be terrible or great.

 

The biggest question for me is can Tommy cobble together a starting rotation that can keep them in the game early. I think Hendricks is pretty much done and they shouldn’t expect anything from him so they will need someone to step into that role as a starter. At this point Stro is a bottom rotation pitcher. They’re going to need progress from the young starters.

[Tim]

I agree, with their depth the Cubs are a very solidly mediocre team. With a little luck and and natural progression from any number of guys they could be a good team. But barring a series of injuries or a big breakout they are not going to be terrible or great.

 

The biggest question for me is can Tommy cobble together a starting rotation that can keep them in the game early. I think Hendricks is pretty much done and they shouldn’t expect anything from him so they will need someone to step into that role as a starter. At this point Stro is a bottom rotation pitcher. They’re going to need progress from the young starters.

I'm going to need to check your work on that one. His ERAs from the past three years are 3.02, 3.22, 3.50

 

That ain't a "bottom rotation pitcher"

[CubinNY]

Carter Hawkins looks like Kyle Rittenhouse’s older brother.

[David]

I agree, with their depth the Cubs are a very solidly mediocre team. With a little luck and and natural progression from any number of guys they could be a good team. But barring a series of injuries or a big breakout they are not going to be terrible or great.

 

The biggest question for me is can Tommy cobble together a starting rotation that can keep them in the game early. I think Hendricks is pretty much done and they shouldn’t expect anything from him so they will need someone to step into that role as a starter. At this point Stro is a bottom rotation pitcher. They’re going to need progress from the young starters.

I'm going to need to check your work on that one. His ERAs from the past three years are 3.02, 3.22, 3.50

 

That ain't a "bottom rotation pitcher"

 

yeah, he's an horsefeathers but he's a pretty good pitcher.

[Bertz]

 

This is pretty in the weeds, but basically Eno Sarris and team built a projection system using their Pitching+ metrics. Stuff+ is basically a measure of a pitcher's pitch qualities based on things like their velo, spin, etc., while Pitching+ also folds in location/command. It's interesting because it is completely independent of ball in play luck or anything like that, I believe the only results based metric that goes into it is swinging strike rate by pitch type. Because it focuses more on process than results, it stabilizes really quickly, often just a couple of starts.

 

Overall, the results are pretty positive for the Cubs. Here's how guys' ERAs from this system compare to what's currently projected on Fangraphs

 

Taillon: 3.91 PP / 4.20 FG

Stroman: 3.71 PP / 3.80 FG

Steele: 3.82 PP / 3.78 FG

Wesneski: 4.02 PP / 4.56 FG

Thompson: 4.15 PP / 4.15 FG

Alzolay: 3.65 PP / 3.86 FG

Smyly: 4.49 PP / 4.55 FG

Hendricks: 5.01 PP / 4.61 FG

Kilian: 4.26 PP / 4.15 FG

 

That's nice lift for Taillon, a huge lift for Wesneski, and some other more modest gains elsewhere. Hendricks is pretty much the only pitcher who looks way worse by this methodology.

[CubinNY]

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, but it appears the Cubs have been recently valued at $4.69B (+Wrigley and Marquee). The Ricketts paid $900M for them 2009. So they have more than quadrupled in value in 14 years. About 30% return on investment year over year.

[CyHawk_Cub]

yeAh bUT THaT doEsn'T mEAn TheY CaN wItHDraW aN eXTrA anDReW jaCksON fRoM tHe aTm ThiNGy sO tHAt iS mEaNIngLeSs

[Ding Dong Johnson]

14 YEARS????

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

[mul21]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

 

That's a dishonest characterization of Mervis. He likely would have been their 6th pick in the shortened Covid draft so he's not some unheard of dude who came out of nowhere. He did get a lot of helium last year because of how he progressed through 3 levels with progressively better numbers. He's not going to be Goldschmidt but he's not LaHair either.

[jersey cubs fan]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

Pretty amazing how much money they’ve put into a team that Vegas isn’t sure will win 77 games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

 

That's a dishonest characterization of Mervis. He likely would have been their 6th pick in the shortened Covid draft so he's not some unheard of dude who came out of nowhere. He did get a lot of helium last year because of how he progressed through 3 levels with progressively better numbers. He's not going to be Goldschmidt but he's not LaHair either.

 

I 100% admit I know absolutely nothing about him that I didn't learn in the last five minutes, so maybe he's awesome, but "he would have been a 6th round pick" isn't a ringing endorsement.

[mul21]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

 

That's a dishonest characterization of Mervis. He likely would have been their 6th pick in the shortened Covid draft so he's not some unheard of dude who came out of nowhere. He did get a lot of helium last year because of how he progressed through 3 levels with progressively better numbers. He's not going to be Goldschmidt but he's not LaHair either.

 

I 100% admit I know absolutely nothing about him that I didn't learn in the last five minutes, so maybe he's awesome, but "he would have been a 6th round pick" isn't a ringing endorsement.

 

He was a not super athletic 2 way player at Duke who was destined for 1B, so regardless of skill level (unless he had like 70 hit tool or power) he wasn't going to be a guy who got hype out of college. He was the 1st call the Cubs made after the draft was over. I'm not trying to sell him here, but there's reason to not just poo poo his prospect status. I can't disagree with the rest of your assessment though. The Rickettses are trash top to bottom.

[Tim]

Plus, in general, the only first basemen that get drafted high are the ones that are no-doubt hitting stars. Since Mervis was splitting his time as a pitcher, he hadn't yet shown that he was a no-doubt offensive force.

[imb]

you know NSBB is back on top when kyle is doom bonering. Time for him to go find another team to root for again. We'll 100 percent know it's for real when he tries to root for the rockies or whoever again

[Bertz]

So having paid almost no attention since 2017, I'm trying to catch up.

 

So the Cubs are spending some money but way below what they should be able to for their market size and everyone is frustrated with ownership for being cheap.

 

The team seriously lacks star power, and the farm system is middle of the pack and also lacks star power. We seem to be trying to build around pitching depth and defense? Everyone is excited about some LaHairesque 24-year-old who kinda hit in the PCL last year?

 

Honestly, it's almost nostalgic how mid-90s Cubs this feels.

 

None of this is outright wrong. Though obviously not the most charitable of reads.

 

On the player side, the pitching is where things are most interesting. Most indications, both from the teams words and actions, is that they believe they're now part of the inner circle of teams that has more or less figured out modern pitching. They think they're a year or two behind the Dodgers/Guardians/Rays, but still ahead of most of the rest of the league. There's some real indication this is true, but for the team to compete it damn sure better be because on the surface they project to have the 21st ranked pitching staff in baseball next year.

 

The position player group is a little more straightforward. They're basically hanging on 3 "D's": Defense, Depth, and Dongs. Even the best iterations of this team are likely going to be middle of the pack in OBP. But aside from catcher they have strong depth everywhere, and so even the spots like 1B that don't look great at the moment should look better closer to Memorial Day after they've had a chance to cycle through some guys. If you want the model for what a successful version of this team looks like on the position player side, it's something like last year's Brewers. 3rd in dongs, 7th in defense, and 13th in OBP despite a clear lack of stars.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

you know NSBB is back on top when kyle is doom bonering. Time for him to go find another team to root for again. We'll 100 percent know it's for real when he tries to root for the rockies or whoever again

 

Angel Stadium is within walking distance. I can put in a good word with Ohtani for you guys

[CubinNY]

Why are they carrying 3 catchers?

[Rex Buckingham]

saw on Twitter (from Brett maybe?) that Dom Nunez got hurt over the weekend and they probably wanted Torrens around in case another catcher got hurt early in the year since there's no other real alternative

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Why are they carrying 3 catchers?

Supposedly to have an extra adequate bat for late innings who can still step behind the plate.  Still doesn't really make sense to me since he's not really a good hitter (for a catcher? ok I guess) and who carries 3 catches these days?

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:30 PM, imb said:

you know NSBB is back on top when kyle is doom bonering. Time for him to go find another team to root for again. We'll 100 percent know it's for real when he tries to root for the rockies or whoever again

wut

[Sammy Sofa]

Kyle briefly flirted with becoming a Dodgers fan a few years ago.