Sean Marshall traded: T Wood +prospects Sappelt &Torreys p21

[dew1679666265]

A league average 2 WAR player making 400k a year just saved 9 million dollars over what comparable production would cost on the FA market.

 

Young, cost-controlled guys are super valuable for the financial flexibility they offer your team. The trick though is actually finding a place to spend that 9 mil.

 

ETA:

 

Kyle took care of it. Nevermind.

 

What if 2011 is closer to what Wood will do going forward rather than 2010? He had two very similar sample sizes and his K/9 dropped a full strikeout while his BB/9 rose more than 1 full walk. It's all well and good that the two combined average out to a solid pitcher, but what if 2010 was a fluke?

[jersey cubs fan]

So the better term is that they are useful. Their value can vary by quite a wide margin.

 

Semantics. Their value is that you don't have to waste $5 million on some veteran not-terrible player to do the same work.

 

It's not semantics. You don't have to waste $5m on some vet to do the same thing, there's all kinds of cheaper veterans out there to do jobs. If all a guy can do is hold his own and not suck, as opposed to actually being productive or effective.

 

You have to differentiate between being ready, and good, and just being ready to not embarrass themself.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What if 2011 is closer to what Wood will do going forward rather than 2010? He had two very similar sample sizes and his K/9 dropped a full strikeout while his BB/9 rose more than 1 full walk. It's all well and good that the two combined average out to a solid pitcher, but what if 2010 was a fluke?

 

What if 2011, where Wood had a 4.06 FIP, is what he'll be doing forward? Then I'll be happy to be slotting him in the back of our rotation for a long time.

[Rob]

A league average 2 WAR player making 400k a year just saved 9 million dollars over what comparable production would cost on the FA market.

 

Young, cost-controlled guys are super valuable for the financial flexibility they offer your team. The trick though is actually finding a place to spend that 9 mil.

 

ETA:

 

Kyle took care of it. Nevermind.

 

What if 2011 is closer to what Wood will do going forward rather than 2010? He had two very similar sample sizes and his K/9 dropped a full strikeout while his BB/9 rose more than 1 full walk. It's all well and good that the two combined average out to a solid pitcher, but what if 2010 was a fluke?

 

2011 Wood was worth 1.1 WAR in 106 IP. Give even 2011 Wood a full season in the rotation and he's pretty likely to approach that 2.0 WAR figure.

[davell]

Has that insider guy on the other forum said anything?

Nah. Not yet.

[dew1679666265]

What if 2011 is closer to what Wood will do going forward rather than 2010? He had two very similar sample sizes and his K/9 dropped a full strikeout while his BB/9 rose more than 1 full walk. It's all well and good that the two combined average out to a solid pitcher, but what if 2010 was a fluke?

 

What if 2011, where Wood had a 4.06 FIP, is what he'll be doing forward? Then I'll be happy to be slotting him in the back of our rotation for a long time.

 

He may. My issue with this trade is that Wood is, at best, a slightly better than mediocre guy who can give us a couple wins for little cost. At worst, we just gave away a very good trading chip for a soft tosser who will wash out in a year or two (that's ignoring the prospects, which would make or break this deal for me). I was simply countering Rob's apparent assumption that Wood will be valuable for us going forward, thus this is a good trade. There's plenty of reason to think we just wasted Marshall.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He may. My issue with this trade is that Wood is, at best, a slightly better than mediocre guy who can give us a couple wins for little cost. At worst, we just gave away a very good trading chip for a soft tosser who will wash out in a year or two (that's ignoring the prospects, which would make or break this deal for me). I was simply countering Rob's apparent assumption that Wood will be valuable for us going forward, thus this is a good trade. There's plenty of reason to think we just wasted Marshall.

 

Why would you think Wood is going to wash out? Other than the fact that anyone can wash out?

 

I guess since I think Randy Wells is going to wash out, Wood-hate is fair game.

[dew1679666265]

2011 Wood was worth 1.1 WAR in 106 IP. Give even 2011 Wood a full season in the rotation and he's pretty likely to approach that 2.0 WAR figure.

 

Is that WAR likely to remain that decent if his K/9 stays that low and his BB/9 stays that high? I guess what I'm asking is whether there was luck involved in that 1.1 WAR he posted last year and is he a good bet to keep that WAR despite such mediocre numbers?

[davell]

I wonder if Wood could possibly be moved immediately as part of a Rizzo deal? I know they could have had him in the Latos deal, but maybe they wanted all those guys and more?

[Rob]

2011 Wood was worth 1.1 WAR in 106 IP. Give even 2011 Wood a full season in the rotation and he's pretty likely to approach that 2.0 WAR figure.

 

Is that WAR likely to remain that decent if his K/9 stays that low and his BB/9 stays that high? I guess what I'm asking is whether there was luck involved in that 1.1 WAR he posted last year and is he a good bet to keep that WAR despite such mediocre numbers?

 

It's fWAR, not bWAR. It's all based on fielding independent pitching... so there's no real luck involved. Maybe HR/FB, but that stayed basically the same from 2010 to 2011.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2011 Wood was worth 1.1 WAR in 106 IP. Give even 2011 Wood a full season in the rotation and he's pretty likely to approach that 2.0 WAR figure.

 

Is that WAR likely to remain that decent if his K/9 stays that low and his BB/9 stays that high? I guess what I'm asking is whether there was luck involved in that 1.1 WAR he posted last year and is he a good bet to keep that WAR despite such mediocre numbers?

 

That WAR is based on his FIP. It is adjusted for his peripherals.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why would you think Wood is going to wash out? Other than the fact that anyone can wash out?

 

You have to admit he's a fairly decent candidate, with marginal stuff and what has been mixed results so far. It's not like he and Clayton Kershaw have the same odds or anything.

[dew1679666265]

Why would you think Wood is going to wash out? Other than the fact that anyone can wash out?

 

I guess since I think Randy Wells is going to wash out, Wood-hate is fair game.

 

I don't know that Wood is going to wash out. I just don't see much to reassure me that he won't. He doesn't do anything particularly well and I'm not confident at all that he's a sure thing (as you and Rob seem to be) to be an average to above average pitcher going forward.

 

It is a similar feeling to Randy Wells. I'm not comparing the pitchers' ability, more the type of pitcher they are. You don't buy into Wells because he has mediocre stuff and shaky results - I see the same thing in Wood. If Wood were to come up through the minors like Wells did, I'd be fine with that. I'm not comfortable with the idea of trading Marshall for that.

[dew1679666265]

It's fWAR, not bWAR. It's all based on fielding independent pitching... so there's no real luck involved. Maybe HR/FB, but that stayed basically the same from 2010 to 2011.

 

True, and that makes me feel better. I guess I'm just hesitant to buy into a guy with marginal stuff maintaining a pretty good WAR.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why would you think Wood is going to wash out? Other than the fact that anyone can wash out?

 

You have to admit he's a fairly decent candidate, with marginal stuff and what has been mixed results so far. It's not like he and Clayton Kershaw have the same odds or anything.

 

Fangraphs places his fastball at 90 MPH and his K/9 is 6.99 for his career.

 

It's not brilliant stuff, but it doesn't seem marginal to me.

[Guest]

Wood's results haven't been mixed, really. He's had a half season of good, and a half season of league average, and he doesn't turn 25 until February.

[KingCubsFan]

Wood's results haven't been mixed, really. He's had a half season of good, and a half season of league average, and he doesn't turn 25 until February.

Combined with the fact that he has a plus pitch (his changeup) and got roughed up last year in a hitter's park, there's definitely a chance he could end up being pretty valuable.

[ctcf]

Wood's results haven't been mixed, really. He's had a half season of good, and a half season of league average, and he doesn't turn 25 until February.

 

At times, you'd think they'd just traded for John Grabow.

[treebird]

a lot of people like to compare wood and wells, and that might have been a good comparison, if not for last year. wells' velocity last year is pretty scary.

 

FUN CHART FORM

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/4535_P_FA_20110925.png

[Bote McBoteface]

the front office is just one trade away from being put into the same category as MacPhail and Hendry.

 

Marshall was one of the few bright spots on the who pitching staff, and my daughter is pissed because she thought he was cute.

 

 

That's stupid. Hendry did stuff like 7.5 million for Grabow. This is trading a reliever for a 25 year old pitcher with several years of team control, and we're getting two prospects that haven't even been identified yet.

 

P.S. When was the last time we acquired a pitcher and didn't pass him off as another version of Randy Wells?

Edited December 21, 2011 by Enn Tea

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Am I going to have to be the first person to suggest that the prospects we get in this deal could be sent to Boston as compensation for Epstein?

 

It's practically a tradition at this point.

[MWV]

I like this deal. Marshall is a free agent after this season, at which point he will be 30 years old looking for closer money. This was the time to get value for him, as he is unlikely--great reliever though he may be--to be a difference maker for the 2012 Cubs.

[chi-guy]

Any word on who the two prospects are officially?

[XZero771679666304]

the front office is just one trade away from being put into the same category as MacPhail and Hendry.

 

Marshall was one of the few bright spots on the who pitching staff, and my daughter is pissed because she thought he was cute.

 

 

That's stupid. Hendry did stuff like 7.5 million for Grabow. This is trading a reliever for a 25 year old pitcher with several years of team control, and we're getting two prospects that haven't even been identified yet.

 

P.S. When was the last time we acquired a pitcher and didn't pass him off as another version of Randy Wells?

 

If it were Hendry, he'd be the on trading young, cost controlled players for the soon to be FA reliever.

[XZero771679666304]

I like this deal. Marshall is a free agent after this season, at which point he will be 30 years old looking for closer money. This was the time to get value for him, as he is unlikely--great reliever though he may be--to be a difference maker for the 2012 Cubs.

 

 

Exactly. And not likely to be worth what he'll get in FA (what it would likely cost to retain him beyond 2012).