Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[Deder]

Regardless of whether or not it was too much, it should lead to an exciting season in the NL Central. I can't remember the last time there were four teams that were legit contenders not only for the division title but having the types of rotation that can win in the playoffs as well.

[JonJayCutler]

Buster_ESPN | Buster Olney

The general perception of proposed Cubs-Garza deal from rival evaluators: Cubs give up a lot of volume,but no real can't-miss star prospect.

 

Trading for Garza shouldn't require a can't-miss prospect. However depleting a lot of good depth on this farm is still a bad thing.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

I'm not pissed, but yes, barring the other two players from Tampa being good the Cubs did give up too much. That's the kind of package that should go for a better player than Garza.

[Guancous]

We all got it. The point was that it was the most hilarious thing in the history of the world.

 

Glad you appreciated it that much. I'm taking this routine on the road.

 

What's the deal with Carlos Silva? Amirite?

[Southpaw191679666239]

Olney also says Archer was the key to the deal.

[thefranchise]

Man, I still remember when some people were upset we traded DeRosa. Who knew one of the guys we got for him could be considered a deal breaker for some. I'm starting to come around to the deal.

[Keener98]

So we know the guys we gave up, but we dont know who the minor league pitcher or OF'er is we are also getting along with Garza?

[nick23]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

Without knowing what the Cubs got in return (besides Garza), they did give up a lot.

I'm not seeing it. Isn't Garza what we hoped Archer would become? And Lee, I don't buy that he was going to ever be anything more than a light hitting, fast, good defensive SS. The other two, who cares?

[illiniguy]

So we know the guys we gave up, but we dont know who the minor league pitcher or OF'er is we are also getting along with Garza?

I'm gonna assume Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings and be very happy for a few hours.

[Guancous]

My initial guess was that the TB prospects were Alex Cobb and Leslie Anderson. Anderson isn't a speed guy and there's no way we're getting Garza and Desmond Jennings for that haul.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

Without knowing what the Cubs got in return (besides Garza), they did give up a lot.

I'm not seeing it. Isn't Garza what we hoped Archer would become? And Lee, I don't buy that he was going to ever be anything more than a light hitting, fast, good defensive SS. The other two, who cares?

 

Who cares about Guyer?

[davell]

The fact we're not hearing names on their end make me think we're not getting much back.

[nick23]

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

Without knowing what the Cubs got in return (besides Garza), they did give up a lot.

I'm not seeing it. Isn't Garza what we hoped Archer would become? And Lee, I don't buy that he was going to ever be anything more than a light hitting, fast, good defensive SS. The other two, who cares?

 

Who cares about Guyer?

Yes.

[davell]

By the way, is 3 years of Garza equal to 2 years of Greinke? The packages given up are fairly close, as far as amount of talent given up goes.

[mookie]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

I'm not pissed, but yes, barring the other two players from Tampa being good the Cubs did give up too much. That's the kind of package that should go for a better player than Garza.

 

I disagree. I think you over value our prospects just a tad. Yes, our system is on the up tick, but still not devastatingly potent. If Kansas city were to give up the same ranked prospects within their system, then I would be peed off and breaking things. We did a 5 for 3, and greatly improved our rotation in the process. The biggest point of this trade working for us is found in our system still retaining its best young players.

[dew1679666265]

I was pretty much resigned to giving up Lee in the trade,even though I wasn't thrilled with it. But giving up Archer too just makes no sense. I'm going to have to trust Hendry and his scouts on this one - and hope one or both of the prospects we got back are good - because otherwise, we traded one of our best two pitching prospects, a high upside SS and filler for an older, more expensive version of Randy Wells.

 

Garza xFIPs in full seasons: 4.48/4.21/4.51

Career: 4.45

Arbitration will probably get him $5-6 mil this year.

 

I can't express how much I hope he pitches more to his career 3.91 ERA than his career 4.51 xFIP.

[chuckywang]

The other AL East teams averaged 834 runs & 764 runs in '09 & '10 respectively. The other NL Central teams averaged 693 and 695 runs in '09 & '10 respectively. I would say there is a pretty significant difference in the divisional opponents that Garza will face by moving leagues.

 

Yeah, I expect Garza's numbers to be better moving to the NL Central, but does that mean he has more value in the NL Central? It's all relative anyways. I expect all pitchers to be better in the NL Central than the AL East. I don't think that adds to Garza's value. His skill is his skill and should be evaluated in a vacuum.

[JonJayCutler]

My initial guess was that the TB prospects were Alex Cobb and Leslie Anderson. Anderson isn't a speed guy and there's no way we're getting Garza and Desmond Jennings for that haul.

 

I'd be very happy with Cobb.

[UK1679666180]

By the way, is 3 years of Garza equal to 2 years of Greinke? The packages given up are fairly close, as far as amount of talent given up goes.

I think mil gave up more than the Cubs and didn't have to take a bloated contract in return.

[thefranchise]

Some guy on facebook:

 

Horrible friggin trade. we gave up

1. nearly .300 hitter ( Fuld)

2. Pitcher of the year in cubs minors (2.34 ERA)

3.And of Player of year in cubs minors who bats ..344.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. IM SO PISSED.

 

 

Getting a good laugh out of this.

[fromthestretch]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

Without knowing what the Cubs got in return (besides Garza), they did give up a lot.

I'm not seeing it. Isn't Garza what we hoped Archer would become? And Lee, I don't buy that he was going to ever be anything more than a light hitting, fast, good defensive SS. The other two, who cares?

 

If Garza was what we hoped Archer would become, then why are we trading away the younger and cheaper Archer PLUS a highly-regarded SS prospect PLUS an intriguing OF prospect for Garza as Garza is starting to get more expensive and Archer wasn't exactly that far away from the big leagues?

[ScrubMD]

I don't have as much faith in Archer as I do McNutt, so...at least it wasn't McNutt.

 

I've never had a lot of hope for Lee, although his reputation has a lot of value.

 

Guyer could be a very good 4th outfielder or maybe an adequate starter.

 

Chirinos would be 10X better than Hill as our backup catcher.

 

I would have been very happy if we wouldn't have included Archer. I think it will end up being a decent trade for us, I just think we could have gotten a much better player for that package.

[dew1679666265]

Fangraphs' Dave Cameron compares Garza to a younger Aaron Harang:

 

Garza is younger, he throws harder, and he’s posted significantly better ERAs over the last several years in the more challenging league, so I understand why the perception of a large gap is there. But the reality is that these two are similar pitchers, and while one of them signed a one year, $4 million contract as a free agent this winter, the other is apparently going to cost a king’s ransom to acquire in trade, and then will earn more than that through arbitration anyway.

 

If the Cubs look at Garza’s ERA and think he’s a potential ace in the NL, they’re mistaken. He’s a valuable innings eater, but he’s not a front line starter, and there were much cheaper, easier ways to acquire this kind of pitcher this winter without punting a big part of the farm system.

 

He includes stats in the article as well.

Edited January 7, 2011 by dew

[illiniguy]

I didn't even realize that we now have Koyie Hill back for sure. :banghead: Now I hate this freaking trade.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wow. I am kind of getting excited for the season now! We are going to make a run boys and girls, where it will lead no one knows.

 

....

 

let me guess, you are pissed because you think we gave up a lot?

 

I'm not pissed, but yes, barring the other two players from Tampa being good the Cubs did give up too much. That's the kind of package that should go for a better player than Garza.

 

I disagree. I think you over value our prospects just a tad. Yes, our system is on the up tick, but still not devastatingly potent. If Kansas city were to give up the same ranked prospects within their system, then I would be peed off and breaking things. We did a 5 for 3, and greatly improved our rotation in the process. The biggest point of this trade working for us is found in our system still retaining its best young players.

 

I'm not overvaluing anyone. I'm basing this on the ratings of our prospects, their performances thus far vs. Garza. If anything, you're undervaluing them and ignoring their rankings/analysis from around baseball. I'm not saying any one of these guys is better or more valuable than Garza on their own, but combined there's a very real chance that the Cubs are giving up too much for a guy that isn't going to put them over the top, or even near the top, and for an area they didn't need to overpay for to improve. This team needs offensive improvement much, much more than pitching, and I'd rather see our highly regarded prospects being packaged for an every day offensive player that's going to have much more of an impact, or if they were going to go for a starting pitcher go after someone who is better than Garza if they're going to sell high and give up that much.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Sammy Sofa