Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[davell]

Calis says 3rd player we're getting back not significant either.

 

Wonder if this means we're going to trade Gorzelanny now?

[Guest]

I feel like our chances next year are being underplayed.

 

To me, Z, Garza, Demp, Wells, Cashner/Gorz seems like a really, really solid starting rotation. There may not be a dominant guy, but there are a bunch of solid guys and 2-3 of those guys are capable of being really good any given season.

 

We all know bullpens are a crapshoot, but Marmol is about as close to a sure thing as you get (in terms of being able to count on very good performance out of a reliever).

 

 

If we can be decent offensively, I don't see why this can't be a pretty good team, but maybe my "analysis" is flawed.

 

I think you're right. We'll have a very deep rotation, should have a very strong back end of the bullpen, and the offense is hard to tell because there's been so much variance with guys like Ramirez, Soriano, and Pena, and guys like Castro and Colvin don't have much MLB history. I think this team is built in the vein of the 2008 team. Not that it's going to win 90+, but it's built to minimize weakness, and if you aren't going to have a Pujols or a Lincecum on your team, that's not a bad way to go.

 

 

In the vein of the 08 team is exactly what I was thinking. Solid up and down... a hole or two we have to fix to get to that level, though. Would love an upgrade at 2B, but that's not being talked about at all... and I hate that Colvin is in the everyday lineup.

 

I'm actually interested to see how a DeWitt/Baker platoon works out at 2b.

[ScrubMD]

someone break down the prospecty-ness of the people we gave up.

 

 

We gave up an Ichiro, a right-handed Dontrelle Willis, a Bengie Molina, and a guy that will be great for team chemistry and plays the right way.

[soonercub]

I like the move! The only prospect I don't like giving up is Archer. He has the potential to be a Garza type. But you never know, Rich Hill was suppose to be a Zito (when he was good) people didn't want to put Pie in the Roberts trade because he was going to be an All-Star. So you do have to give up some talent to get talent. So the the long end of it DeRosa for Garza. Plus we still have some other real nice arms in the system that should be ready when Demp and Z come off the books.

 

Lee is a nice talent, but the Cubs have their SS of the present and future. Plus I think a future up the middle combo of Castro and LeMahieu is better offensively then Lee and Castro. To me Lee is a faster version of Barney with a stronger arm. Not going to wow you with the bat.

 

Guyer is blocked for the next few years and they have Jackson rated higher so I don't mind that move. Chirinois is older than Castillo, so we traded from a strength.

 

I expect the other player coming back to the Cubs to be along the lines of a young Archer type. Hendry seems to always insist on a young power arm in return. See Archer, Lopez the kid we got from San Diego in the Walker deal and traded to Florida.

[mookie]

I feel like our chances next year are being underplayed.

 

To me, Z, Garza, Demp, Wells, Cashner/Gorz seems like a really, really solid starting rotation. There may not be a dominant guy, but there are a bunch of solid guys and 2-3 of those guys are capable of being really good any given season.

 

We all know bullpens are a crapshoot, but Marmol is about as close to a sure thing as you get (in terms of being able to count on very good performance out of a reliever).

 

 

If we can be decent offensively, I don't see why this can't be a pretty good team, but maybe my "analysis" is flawed.

 

I think you're right. We'll have a very deep rotation, should have a very strong back end of the bullpen, and the offense is hard to tell because there's been so much variance with guys like Ramirez, Soriano, and Pena, and guys like Castro and Colvin don't have much MLB history. I think this team is built in the vein of the 2008 team. Not that it's going to win 90+, but it's built to minimize weakness, and if you aren't going to have a Pujols or a Lincecum on your team, that's not a bad way to go.

 

 

In the vein of the 08 team is exactly what I was thinking. Solid up and down... a hole or two we have to fix to get to that level, though. Would love an upgrade at 2B, but that's not being talked about at all... and I hate that Colvin is in the everyday lineup.

 

I'm actually interested to see how a DeWitt/Baker platoon works out at 2b.

 

It surely can't be worse than Miles/Fontenot.

[UK1679666180]

isnt junior lake pretty much as highly regarded as Lee? isnt it a moot point if castro stays at SS?

Lake has a higher ceiling, while Lee is a safer bet to reach his ceiling (although I question that when an inside-out hitter swings and misses that much).

[Elrhino]

Garza was actually quite good against Boston and New York if memory serves.

 

The thing about the prospects has never been "this guy is a surefire all-star, why did we give him up?", it's that prospects have value at the time of the trade, and many people felt that value isn't recaptured by the trade's return. That's why the Pierre deal was so especially bad. If Garza never improves upon being a 2-3 WAR pitcher, then I think it's fair to say that we could've gotten more value from those prospects in a different deal or by keeping them.

 

I would say quantifying "value" is a nearly impossible thing to from the outside looking in, and inherently subjective and arbitrary.

 

It could also be easily over-inflated if one were to have a confirmation bias against Henry.

 

Henry has had enough mishaps to focus on, mainly his free agent aquisitions and contracts doled out, his inability to draft and develop positional players, etc. His ability to get the most out of farm system in trades wouldn't be one of them.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Elrhino

[Sammy Sofa]

people didn't want to put Pie in the Roberts trade because he was going to be an All-Star.

 

People keep bringing up Pie like he was a bust the Cubs let go. He's had injury issues with the Orioles, but he's certainly not a bust at this point. I was annoyed when the Cubs effectively gave up on him and wish he was still here now.

[tfarks]

I wish Archer was still here now.

 

Wouldn't mind nearly as much if they put Casher in the rotation.

[Clem Fandango]

I was furious at first... but after a looking it over for a few minutes and reading everyone's take on it, I'm kind of okay with it. Still not pleased, but it's not nearly as bad as I initially thought it was upon first glance

[davell]

From all indications, Cashner is going to get a shot at the rotation.

[Post Count Padder]

FWIW, Heyman tweeted the rotation looks like Z, Garza, Demp, Cashner and one of Wells/Silva/Gorz

 

But then again, he's not that intelligent.

[Post Count Padder]

I'd love for the rotation to be Z, Garza, Demp, Wells, Cash with Gorz traded or in middle relief and Silva just flat out gone.

 

That rotation with a pen of: Gorz, Guzman, Marshall, Wood, Marmol and one of Grabow/Gaub/Berg/Russell/etc would be pretty decent.

[soonercub]

We always hear people complain that we don't trade our prospects when their perceived value is at its highest. Archer and Guyer's stock isn't going to get any higher unless they are tearing it up at the major league level. They were both the Cubs minor league players of the year and had really nice years. Probably years that both will not be able to repeat this year.

 

I wonder if they plan on moving either Gorz or Wells soon? I think Detroit still wants to add a starter and they have been rumored for Gorz.

[Radar3454]

conflicted about this trade - love Garza but hate to see Archer traded - I was ok w/ Lee getting traded but was not expecting Archer at all

 

time will tell for this trade - it is a win now type of deal so we better win and make the playoffs or the trade will be a bust IMO

[davell]

No idea how the Silva thing plays out, but if he's got heart issues and misses all of 2011, the Cubs at 6 mill(and Mariners as well, since they pay 5.5 mill in 2011) could receive their money back through insurance claims on him.

[davell]

In the end, I think Hendry held out as long as possible on including Archer. Probably wanted Carpenter or Jay Jackson in that spot, but Friedman held out and eventually got who he wanted out of Hendry.

[David]

Since we didn't dump Vitters in this deal, let's all pray that he manages to rebound and pans out into a decent player.

[inari]

The one thing I'm happy with is trading Guyer, as I don't think his value is going to get any higher than it is right now.

[Sammy Sofa]

We always hear people complain that we don't trade our prospects when their perceived value is at its highest. Archer and Guyer's stock isn't going to get any higher unless they are tearing it up at the major league level. They were both the Cubs minor league players of the year and had really nice years. Probably years that both will not be able to repeat this year.

 

So trade them for a better player or one that better addresses the team's needs. Selling high is fine.

[Guest]

Just tried skimming the thread a bit. Did the Cubs just trade Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer. Robinson Chirinos and Sam Fuld for Matt Garza?

[davell]

Just tried skimming the thread a bit. Did the Cubs just trade Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer. Robinson Chirinos and Sam Fuld for Matt Garza?

 

 

And some poet named Perez!!!!!! And some other guy who's not significant, but hasn't been named yet either.

 

But yes. It's a deal.

[Guest]

Wow. I wish they were acquiring someone better than Garza if they were going to overpay. It'll be hilarious when Archer is better than Garza in 2012 or 2013.

[tfarks]

Wow. I wish they were acquiring someone better than Garza if they were going to overpay. It'll be hilarious when Archer is better than Garza in 2012 or 2013.

 

I guess, but it will suck much more. If it puts Hendry out the door its worth it though.

[Guancous]

someone break down the prospecty-ness of the people we gave up.

 

 

We gave up an Ichiro, a right-handed Dontrelle Willis, a Bengie Molina, and a guy that will be great for team chemistry and plays the right way.

 

You mean a healthy Kaz Matsui. That's not an insult.