Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[nick23]

Yeah, I usually respect what Law says, but Cashner out of the pen is a positive for the Cubs? That's laughable. It's also not appearing to be true either.

If I recall he was big on having the Cubs making it a 6 inning game and going Cashner, Wood, Marmol to close games out.

[Tyrant]

This is a trade you make it you are planning to win NOW

 

Why? The Cubs have Garza through 2013 and he's in his prime. It's not like he's 33 and only has one year left on his contract. He'll be with the Cubs for a while.

[dew1679666265]

Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats.

 

Is he just outperforming it or is he getting helped out quite a bit by a good Tampa defense? The total UZR/150 for the Tampa defense last year was 3.1, while it was -14.9 for the Cubs. DeWitt over Theriot may help that a little this year, but Lee to Pena will hurt it.

 

I could be overrating UZR, but it's a gamble by the Cubs. If Garza has really been performing closer to his xFIP and the defense has helped him, this is a really bad trade by the Cubs. However, if Garza is just simply a pitcher who will always outproduce xFIP, then this will probably be a decent to good trade for the Cubs. If I'm giving up Archer and Lee, though, I want to be more certain of why Garza's ERA and xFIP are so different.

[UK1679666180]

I think Garza's potential is being seriously undervalued on here by many/most. It's not that often you can trade for a pitcher of his age and talent (plus the AL East to NL Central move).

 

As for the deal, the Cubs gave up a lot (probably more in volume than anything though). So I understand that part of the disagreement with the trade -- though this basically happens on every board for every team when prospects are traded -- but that doesn't mean Garza doesn't have some serious potential.

 

I'm not for sure, I'm not a minor league expert, but I think I probably would have made this trade.

 

The biggest problem I have with this trade, as I said earlier, is that Garza pretty much has to reach that potential for this trade to make sense. We didn't have a need in the rotation and Garza hasn't been a top of the rotation pitcher to this point. He'll cost upward of $5-6 mil this year and more after that.

 

His xFIP doesn't indicate a pitcher on the verge of being a top of the rotation pitcher, but he'll have to be to keep us from having overpaid. And if I'm trading primarily for potential, overpaying doesn't make sense.

 

Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats.

 

how can we be sure that Garza outperforming his xFIP wasn't due to Tampa Bay's super awesome defense?

 

I've always been under the belief and it would like apply to Archer as well that power pitchers with plus stuff tend outperform stats they can control b/c their stuff can overcome flaws both have elevated FBs and bouts of spotty control, although Garza can spot his FB better.

[Tryptamine]

I keep hearing the term potential when people are referring to Garza. The guy has pitched in the majors for 5 years now. It's so much more likely that he is what he is. The chances of him breaking out at this point are slim and certainly not worth dropping 4 of the farm's top 16 prospects including their number 1. The Cubs still aren't the division favorite and now the farm is going to fall from top 10 to hopefully middle of the pack if not worse. If Hendry was going to pony up for a prospect he should have done so for an impact bat, not an underachieving slightly above average starter.

[Clem Fandango]

I keep hearing the term potential when people are referring to Garza. The guy has pitched in the majors for 5 years now. It's so much more likely that he is what he is. The chances of him breaking out at this point are slim and certainly not worth dropping 4 of the farm's top 16 prospects including their number 1. The Cubs still aren't the division favorite and now the farm is going to fall from top 10 to hopefully middle of the pack if not worse. If Hendry was going to pony up for a prospect he should have done so for an impact bat, not an underachieving slightly above average starter.

 

Zack Greinke pitched in the majors for 5 years and had a pedestrian 4.28 career ERA to show for it, but he had a lot of potential. He won the Cy Young the following year.

 

I'm not comparing Greinke to Garza, but to say a pitcher can't change after 5 years of not showing signs of improvement is a little silly.

 

FWIW, Cliff Lee had a 4.64 ERA over his first 6 years before he won the Cy Young at the age of 29. His ERA the year before was 6.29 over 97IP. IIRC, all he did was develop a cutter into his repertoire and it changed everything for him. It can be as simple as developing a new pitch, a change of scenery, or having something just click.

 

There's nothing to suggest Garza is destined to remain the pitcher he's been this far into his career. Anything can happen

Edited January 7, 2011 by The Logan

[JonJayCutler]

I keep hearing the term potential when people are referring to Garza. The guy has pitched in the majors for 5 years now. It's so much more likely that he is what he is.

 

True, but Dempster had easily the best year of his career at age 31. It does happen.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I keep hearing the term potential when people are referring to Garza. The guy has pitched in the majors for 5 years now. It's so much more likely that he is what he is.

 

True, but Dempster had easily the best year of his career at age 31. It does happen.

 

I think the positive hear is the division change, I think Garza could improve his WHIP and lower his ERA to low-mid 3's. Not to mention that like big Z he is capable of shutting anyone out on any given day, which makes things hard to predict but gives you better hope in matchups versus pitchers like Carpenter, Wainright, Greinke and Gallardo.... Not to mention in a 5 game playoff series.

[rawaction]

Plus, 27 is the age when a lot of players put it together. The next 3-4 years are likely to be the best year's of his career because they will be his prime years. Changing leagues could help immensely too.

[Omar]

Them Florida teams love raping our farm system.

[dew1679666265]

Zack Greinke pitched in the majors for 5 years and had a pedestrian 4.28 career ERA to show for it, but he had a lot of potential. He won the Cy Young the following year.

 

And then he returned to the pitcher he was the next year. Garza doesn't even have to really improve his ERA/WHIP numbers to be a good addition for the Cubs. He has to continue to outpitch his xFIP, though, and do it after going from a good defense to a much worse defense.

 

It's a gamble that could work out or it may not, but since we gave up Archer and Lee it pretty much has to or we overpayed severely.

[ctcf]

Them Florida teams love raping our farm system.

 

Yeah man they sure have torn them to shreds, huh.

[soonercub]

Them Florida teams love raping our farm system.

 

Yep, who was the stud closer we gave up for Greg?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Is it OK to really dumb things down and just say that over the past few years when I saw Garza was pitching for the Rays on a given night that I thought the Rays had a good pitcher throwing and had a clean chance to win? And that when I see a Randy Wells or Gorz in the pitching matchups I think we don't have as good a chance to win?

 

I do realize that looking into numbers, etc., gives a better indication of the type of player you are getting, but all I care about is that we are getting a pitcher I feel will give us a chance to win each time he pitches. Those pitchers feel good to have on my team.

[UK1679666180]

Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats.

 

Is he just outperforming it or is he getting helped out quite a bit by a good Tampa defense? The total UZR/150 for the Tampa defense last year was 3.1, while it was -14.9 for the Cubs. DeWitt over Theriot may help that a little this year, but Lee to Pena will hurt it.

 

I could be overrating UZR, but it's a gamble by the Cubs. If Garza has really been performing closer to his xFIP and the defense has helped him, this is a really bad trade by the Cubs. However, if Garza is just simply a pitcher who will always outproduce xFIP, then this will probably be a decent to good trade for the Cubs. If I'm giving up Archer and Lee, though, I want to be more certain of why Garza's ERA and xFIP are so different.

 

Pena is almost as good as Lee defensively and better than half the year with Lee/Nady. As I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Babip/Fip and I don't want to divert the topic but I see it as a positive net despite Wrigley and a worse defense compared to playing in the NLC.

[Guest]

Garza has also survived the ages where pitchers most often get hurt, while Archer still has to prove he can handle a major league workload.

 

I'm pretty neutral on the trade. To me, it all depends on whether Garza can take the next step forward to have his production meet up with his scouting reports. If that happens, that the trade is going to be worth it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

2 guys who will really benefit from this trade are Chirinos and Fuld, who may very well be guaranteed spots on TBs 25 man roster, which never would have happened for them with the Cubs.

[Guest]

2 guys who will really benefit from this trade are Chirinos and Fuld, who may very well be guaranteed spots on TBs 25 man roster, which never would have happened for them with the Cubs.

Sucks to be Guyer, though. He would have had a chance to either platoon with Colvin if Fukudome gets traded or win a spot outright if Colvin tanks. I really don't think he gets a chance to start in Tampa.

[UK1679666180]

2 guys who will really benefit from this trade are Chirinos and Fuld, who may very well be guaranteed spots on TBs 25 man roster, which never would have happened for them with the Cubs.

Sucks to be Guyer, though. He would have had a chance to either platoon with Colvin if Fukudome gets traded or win a spot outright if Colvin tanks. I really don't think he gets a chance to start in Tampa.

Maybe not this year but in the future, Guyer has a better chance to see the field there than Chicago.

[dew1679666265]

Pena is almost as good as Lee defensively and better than half the year with Lee/Nady. As I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Babip/Fip and I don't want to divert the topic but I see it as a positive net despite Wrigley and a worse defense compared to playing in the NLC.

 

You're also not as big a fan of Archer and Lee as I am as well. This may work out, I just don't like the package we had to give up. If we're going to give up two of our highest rated prospects, I'd like to see us get a guy more clearly an elite performer than Garza has been.

[rawaction]

Garza has also survived the ages where pitchers most often get hurt, while Archer still has to prove he can handle a major league workload.

 

I'm pretty neutral on the trade. To me, it all depends on whether Garza can take the next step forward to have his production meet up with his scouting reports. If that happens, that the trade is going to be worth it.

 

I think he takes A step forward. The question is how big? I'm starting to warm up to the trade, as I think he will take a decent size step up to being the unquestioned best starter on the staff.

[Guest]

2 guys who will really benefit from this trade are Chirinos and Fuld, who may very well be guaranteed spots on TBs 25 man roster, which never would have happened for them with the Cubs.

Sucks to be Guyer, though. He would have had a chance to either platoon with Colvin if Fukudome gets traded or win a spot outright if Colvin tanks. I really don't think he gets a chance to start in Tampa.

Maybe not this year but in the future, Guyer has a better chance to see the field there than Chicago.

This year Guyer had a realistic chance to platoon with Colvin. In the future, Byrd goes away and there's two OF spots for the combination of Colvin, Jackson and Guyer. I think there was a fairly realistic chance of him having a long-term role in the Chicago OF as at least a platoon partner for one or both of those guys.

[Guest]

Pena is almost as good as Lee defensively and better than half the year with Lee/Nady. As I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Babip/Fip and I don't want to divert the topic but I see it as a positive net despite Wrigley and a worse defense compared to playing in the NLC.

 

You're also not as big a fan of Archer and Lee as I am as well. This may work out, I just don't like the package we had to give up. If we're going to give up two of our highest rated prospects, I'd like to see us get a guy more clearly an elite performer than Garza has been.

My only question with the trade is whether this package (or slightly better) would have put us in the running for Adrian Gonzalez. Of course, there's the huge difference in future dollar commitment to take into consideration, as well.

[Guest]

I think I'm going to give myself a migraine hearing some typically smart people talk about Chirinos.

[Guest]

Just to get everyone all hot and bothered with excitement, Garza's most similar by age 26 are (drumroll please)..........

 

Kip Wells

Steve Trachsel