jewbytuesday

I suppose just to wrap this up - I agree with you that they don't invest enough resources in their pitching to be successful, but that is very likely because Jed is aware that the pitching development infrastructure is mid (and thus, their ROI will be mid) and has no idea how to fix it. This has been the case for his entire tenure as Cubs top brass. In 2025, which we both agreed was the strongest season of MLB pitching development success under Hoyer as POBO, featured the Cubs' staff notching 13.4 fWAR, good for 19th in MLB. That ain't gonna cut it. Nibbling over isolated anecdotes of pitchers who develop successfully, or appear to prior to getting injured or stepping back, is missing the forest for the trees. I don't mean to wave away any positive developments - I am happy to acknowledge them and note that they are inconsequential.

I had not read Matt's post on Rollison, and will give it a whirl. Thanks for sharing. I'd say with a middle reliever who has poor peripherals (even if they have a good explanation), it probably takes multiple successful seasons to feel good about notching him in the W column. Should he enter the W column, that would mean that the Cubs' pitching infrastructure turned a former first round draft pick into a useful middle reliever. Mazel Tov, I guess. Correlation does not imply causation, of course, but this is notable for being the year in which Zombro was given a more significant role in MLB pitching operations. It's hard not to look at the garbage heap of broken MLB pitchers this year and not ask the question of whether Zombro (or as Matt points out, the philosohpical divergence between Zombro and Hottovy) is responsible. Taillon's season is a data point here for sure - I'll grant he's been a bit fringe since his TJ2, but he had been very serviceable for the preceding 2.5 seasons. You're also right that the 2025 bullpen outcome is the best success story for pitching under Hoyer as POBO. Given the aggregate track record he has, and the complete failure to build on that success productively, I'm comfortable concluding it was a fluke rather than a stroke of genius. Boyd basically just got less hurt than he previously did. That's an example of them taking a good risk that clearly paid off. With respect to the non-Zombro sources of blame you list: 1. I'm not sure the Cubs have spent less on free agent pitchers than other non-Dodgers organizations that have had success int his era, certainly not than Milwaukee. They've ignored pitching in the draft, but that's plausibly because the drafters (and Hoyer) are aware they have no pitching development to speak of. 2. Injuries definitely contributed to this year's outcome. However, they are sadly a major part of the game, especially the pitching side, and the organizations that are able to weather the storm have superior pitching development. Milwaukee, who you mention, has dealt with injuries to Woodruff and Burnes in recent years and ended up fine. Their bullpen (and pitching farm) is so deep that they plausibly would not suffer for losing Megill, Uribe, or both. Lastly, it's reasonable to ask the question of whether the Cubs' conditioning regimens or medical staff are behind the league. 3. No arguments here - they're definitely way behind the game on, at a minimum, everything to do with pitching. I think after 2026 we should be asking ourselves whether Zombro is a part of that.

Caple I suppose I'll give you. That's a single guy, in AA. McGwire has struggled at high A, Rollison has extremely questionable peripherals, and Ben Brown is cooked because of his neck injury. The list of folks from last year apart from Horton mostly consists of players who took huge steps back this year (Wiggins, Palencia, Taillon) and veterans who have been mid either here or in other orgs. I can't identify a single pitcher who has come into the organization and made consistent progress towards becoming a contributor to the MLB club in the past two seasons. By contrast, several players have taken major steps backward - the aforementioned Taillon broke to the point of unplayability, the same has likely happened to Cabrera, and the same appears to be happening to Clay Holmes. Fact of the matter is, given the volume of pitching injuries that are associated with the modern game, an organization rides or dies on its pitching development infrastructure. The Cubs have never really been able to consistently develop MLB-caliber pitching at any point since Jim Hendry's departure. It's early returns, fair, but thus far it appears to me that Zombro somehow has managed to make the organization even worse at pitching development than it was when he arrived. From where I sit, it's rather clear that there's no hope for the Cubs being consistently successful until the entire FO is replaced, the Earth under the existing pitching development infrastructure is salted, and new blood is brought in with free rein to build something new.

Honestly a version of this article could be written about just about every pitcher in the org. On the flip side virtually no pitcher has taken a step forward, anywhere between Myrtle and Wrigley. At what point should we be asking the question of whether pitching dev under Zombro is systematically blowing up the Cubs’ pitching, and if so, how that is working?

I just want to say that I hope I eat at least one thing this week that is as delicious as this article. Pure uncut haterade.

Entirely correct that firing Hottovy is inadequate. The fish rots from the head. Jed has overseen vanishingly few pitching development wins in his entire tenure with the Cubs. Anyone he could hire to work under him who is capable of generating pitching development wins in this sorry organization will immediately get poached and promoted by another org, as Breslow did. This doesn’t get better until the POBO rolls over.

IMO it’s pretty hard to blame this one on Counsell. The Cubs have literally zero high leverage arms available. That’s not on him. Fact remains the Cubs have broken several promising arms this season (Cabrera, Palencia, Zeferjahn) and from where I sit there are virtually zero pitching development wins across the entire organization. To that end - is it time to ask whether the organization should be questioning the degree to which it entrusts Zombro? It seems like he entered the organization and the pitching development went from mediocre to entirely bombed out and depleted. Ultimately given the structure of the game in 2026 it seems futile to be thinking about the Cubs making a deep run until the pitching development infrastructure shows the ability to at a minimum match its caliber under Jim Hendry.