Deder

I'll wait for more info to come out before I judge Braun but lets be honest here. The player isn't allowed to challenge the result, if he said my test result is invalid because of x or y they just say too bad. The only way to overturn a test is to attack the process and that is what he did. One way or the other I'm sure more information will come out and then people can make up their minds. All along I've thought something was weird though because he tested 3 times higher than he should have if he were using a PED so either he has some sort of crazy super PED or something was wrong with the test.

Should be a decent bullpen, it will be an epic bullpen if umpires continue to call strikes for Marmol on a regular basis when he basically never throws a strike ever. Never seen a pitcher with such bad control get so many balls called strikes though I guess I'm glad he does.

The Brewers started the season 13-0 back in 1987 and they were 19-3 to start May. By the end of May they were 24-21. On July 8th they lost putting them at 40-41. Then in a strange development they went 50-30 the rest of the way to win 91 games. This was a team that wasn't supposed to be good, won 13 straight, managed to blow it all and still win 91. Baseball is a strange game and I wouldn't be worried at all about a bad 6 games on the road to start the season.

Well 86 wins is all the talent needed to be the favorites. The reality is some team will play 4 or 5 games over their talent level and if that happens to be an 86 win talent team that is a 90+ win reality. Most likely someone will end up in the 88-92 range for wins but it will be because of their record in close games or some goofy guy breaking out in a big way or just getting lucky with run distribution etc.

PECOTA still ranks favorably with all other projection systems for the stats that actually matter so no reason to think there is anything wrong with these projections. You just have to judge them compared to other PECOTA projections and realize they tend to regress things a bit more than many systems. 80 wins sounds about right to be honest, the Cubs look like a .500 team on paper to me. The Brewers are probably the best team on paper now that Wainwright is injured but they have a brutal interleague schedule that is going to hurt any chance they have of breaking 85 wins and I just can't trust the Reds yet so it only takes a couple guys overproducing or good health overall for the Cubs to be right in the thick of things. I think it has something to do with how he is a GB pitcher yet keeps his BABIP and HR/FB low. That isn't a very common ability. For his career Zambrano has an xFIP of 4.13, FIP of 3.93 and ERA of 3.50. It is really hard to find many guys like that who don't pitch in a pitchers park and have the sample size that Zambrano does. Zambrano is just one of those guys who 'breaks the system'. To be fair though his season last year wasn't really any better than the previous four years so the expectations should probably be a high 3 ERA and not a low one.

Regardless of whether or not it was too much, it should lead to an exciting season in the NL Central. I can't remember the last time there were four teams that were legit contenders not only for the division title but having the types of rotation that can win in the playoffs as well.

Yeah I was responding to this... It is going to be much more than a couple of wins, most likely 5+ wins and plausibly 10+, the range of outcomes is pretty large.

I think you are really underrating Greinke by saying he is only worth 2 wins. The Brewers put a lot of replacement level innings in last year and Marcum and Greinke are almost certainly a 6 win upgrade over what they had if healthy and could easily be a 10+ win combo if both improve in the NL. Betancourt is actually a small upgrade over what they got from SS last year which is scary so he is a 1-2 loss with the glove. It won't surprise me at all if they are a high 80 win team though they could easily have some injuries and end up a low to mid 80 win team too.

I think you are really underrating Greinke by saying he is only worth 2 wins. The Brewers put a lot of replacement level innings in last year and Marcum and Greinke are almost certainly a 6 win upgrade over what they had if healthy and could easily be a 10+ win combo if both improve in the NL. Betancourt is actually a small upgrade over what they got from SS last year which is scary so he is a 1-2 loss with the glove. It won't surprise me at all if they are a high 80 win team though they could easily have some injuries and end up a low to mid 80 win team too.

This is still highly debatable as defensive statistics do not become meaningful over a single season and Tulo had the advantage of Coors. Braun's defense probably really was that bad at 3B but Tulo's defense has turned out to be a bit of a fluke that season. You also have to keep in mind Tulo played a full season and Braun didn't and it does make a little bit of a difference to the voters. Finally I doubt the voters take positional adjustments into account which something like WAR does. That was a very close race that is hard to complain about either way it went. I don't think Castro has much of a shot unless Heyward gets hurt.

The 2005 White Sox are an example of a what a mediocre team can do when most of their players(especially the pitchers) all have career years at the same time. Almost any team could be the 2005 White Sox but it is unlikely that any given team will be like them.

Fan scouting report has him as one of the worst for what it is worth. Biggest issue with fan scouting is usually positioning of the fielder. A smart fielder who positions himself well can make a significant difference that fans just won't notice. Cal Ripken as an example was great at this. http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=6

I think the NL Central is one of the weakest divisions in baseball and everyone but the pirates and maybe the Astros have a shot at it. Just depends on which team stays healthiest and which young players break out. Health is the bigger concern for the Cubs and Cardinals, youth breaking out is the bigger concern for the Reds/Brewers.

The cutter is a pitch he would use to help neutralize left handed hitters more than anything because it doesn't really have a platoon split like most pitches. Looking at Zambrano's platoon splits in general he walks a lot of lefties and doesn't give up a lot of HR to lefties and the two combine for a relatively small platoon split for him. The only time he had a lot of troubles with lefties was 05/06 which I'm guessing is when he was learning the cutter in the first place.

Those look reasonable. The innings jump last year is a minor concern as well which might lead to a little tired arm at some point which might make him slide a little bit higher but I doubt it is much higher.

Beltran comp is pretty close. Over his first 3 seasons his OPS was pretty terrible and his OBP was low. He didn't really break out until Gomez's age right now. Sizemore is a bit more of a head scratcher as he was already a good hitter at Gomez's age. Both were relatively low BB, high K speedster types so I can kind of see the comp though both had higher ISO than Gomez. The division can really go to anyone, I don't think any team stands out. The Cardinals will probably win it if Carpenter and Wainwright both stay healthy all year but I'm not sure that is very likely. The Brewers and Reds need young guys to really step up to win it. The Cubs need the old guys to stay healthy and Soto to rebound. The Astros would need their rotation to really step up to have any shot.

This question is really too hard to answer because we don't know who will get hurt etc yet. However if I answer the question of whose offense and pitching could be better than the Cubs I have multiple choices for each one. I can easily envision a world where the Cubs have the 4th best offense in the division. Soriano doesn't bounce back, Aramis has more injury issues, Lee doesn't have his huge surge like last year, Soto's weight loss isn't the magic answer etc. There are plenty of areas of worry on this offense and not many sure things at this point. I can easily envision a world where the Cubs have the 3rd best pitching in the division if Lilly doesn't come back strong and Zambrano continues to have injury issues. I don't really trust Wells yet and having all three of Gorzelanny, Samardzija and Silva getting a lot of starts is not a good thing. The bullpen doesn't look too terribly strong either but bullpens are so random year to year it is just hard to say. I mean worse case scenario here they could actually have the 4th or 5th best if both Lilly and Z go down for any length of time, that of course is just the nature of pitching. Even if everything bounces their way it probably takes wainwright or carpenter getting hurt to beat out the Cards pitching. Now I'm not saying the Cubs have the 4th best offense/pitching in the division. I'm saying that they aren't anywhere close to obvious #1. I'm just saying as the roster is constructed right now I think it probably isn't fair to expect the best offense AND best pitching in the division from this team. A number of things have to go the Cubs way for that to happen.

This seems unlikely. Cairo projections look better than BPro ones but I don't see how the Cubs will be the best offense and defense.

Bruce and Votto are both in their 3rd year and neither played a full season last year. I don't see why you wouldn't think they couldn't improve? Generally speaking you think of anyone with 1500 or fewer PA to be a young player still. When I look at the young hitters in the NL Central the most improvement I can see is probably on the Reds. Fielder and Braun are established now with 3+ years so hard to see them improving much, the Brewers don't have much else in the way of young hitting unless they get really lucky and Escobar and Gomez learn how to take walks. The Astros have Pence and that is about it. The Pirates are going to stink no matter what. The Cardinals have Rasmus and that is pretty much it. The Cubs have Soto and I guess you could say Fontenot. This is not a division with a lot of up and coming hitting in 2010. Sure every team has some completely unproven minor league types that could come up and make an impact but if any team is going to see a suddenly jump offensively my money is on the reds with Bruce and Votto. They could easily be the next Braun/Fielder combo that can turn a mediocre team into a borderline playoff team.

Bruce, Votto, Stubbs. They also have Dickerson and Janish getting a lot of AB and you could expect improvement probably. Certainly more young talent that could 'break out' than say the Astros or Pirates. The Reds could at least plausibly find themselves over .500 if things go their way.

When you take contract size into account Zambrano really has no value unless he is going to a team looking for that has a lot of money and needs a pitcher to contend. He is likely overpaid for the rest of his contract which makes him hard to trade. There aren't very many teams that fit that bill. I don't think there is any way Detroit would trade Cabrera for him as an example, not unless the Cubs ate salary. The Angels might make a little sense if they get desperate. As for the Cubs in 2010, the Cardinals aren't likely to repeat last year. They basically had everything go right for them. The Brewers are at best only a win or two better than last year which means a .500 team or so. The Reds could plausibly take a step up with their young hitting but I doubt they are better than an 85 win team. All the Cubs have to do is field an 85 win team and they are serious contenders for the division. I don't see a compelling reason why they can't do that.

Given the increasing number of pitchers hurt while trying to hit I'd be surprised if they evened things out by removing the DH. It is much more likely they add it to the NL than remove it to the AL at this point. Keeping your high salary players healthy is generally what drives most new rule changes.

So should the Cubs sign Looper? He won 14 games last year so he obviously was better than Zambrano.

It will take a miracle for Zambrano to earn his contract. He is at best break even production vs salary now and it is much more likely his value goes down before it goes up. More importantly giving a long contract like that to any pitcher is a bad idea. Fukudome it is still too early to tell but I think that one will work out ok.

A guy suddenly figuring it out at a bit of an advanced age is always a tricky thing to figure out. To use a Cub as an example most people didn't expect Soto to be for real since it took so long for him to figure it out and he sort of came out of nowhere but that obviously worked out last season at least. Wouldn't surprise me if McGehee has a similar big season followed by mediocrity. I personally suspect it is just some random hot streak but you just never know in this game.