Lilly & Theriot to the Dodgers for DeWitt, 2 Minor Leaguers

[Keener98]

Man, Lilly in Cinci would be all sorts of bad for the Reds. Lilly needs to go to a big time pitchers park because with his flyball tendencies he could be a disaster in some places. I know Wrigley isn't a big time pitchers park but the wind blows in more than it blows out and on the days the winds blown out we've seen Teddy have some horrible outings.

[17 Seconds]

After his .894 OPS in 2007, he has kind of fallen off a cliff (.784, .686, .715 since) but he's only 25 (26 in August) and was an elite prospect (#2 in baseball in 2004). His past two BABIPs have been a bit lower than his career average as well (.334 career; .310 in 2009 and .290 this year).

 

Defensively, he's very good according to UZR/150: 10.7 in LF and 5.5 in CF. He just lost an arbitration hearing before the year and is making $3 million this year.

 

I'll admit it's more the elite prospect status that intrigues me about him, but I can definitely see the reasons we wouldn't have interest in him. My thinking is, if we can't get one or more current top prospect(s) for Lilly, I'd take Upton before a package of lower minors/upside guys.

 

Yeah, I'd rather take a gamble on him than more depth type prospects.

BJ Upton is the player Corey Patterson was supposed to be. The Rays are sour on on him b/c he doesn't run as fast as he can to get to balls in the gap and some other things attitude wise.

 

What? BJ Upton kind of sucks. That's why they've soured on him.

 

2008- .273/.383/.401

2009- .241/.313/.373

2010- .230/.320/.395

 

He's getting ready to turn 26. Where are the results?

I'd take him for Lilly in a second. Upton played hurt all last year.

 

Is he playing hurt again this year?

 

Yea, I'd take him for Lilly too..... but he's "what Patterson was supposed to be"? When? 2008? Unless you're saying Patterson was supposed to be a .700 OPS hitter

[rawaction]

Unlike Patterson, Upton can take a walk to combat his high K totals. Upton's power is decent too, but he has shown a lot more (24 HRs in 2007, 7 playoff HRs in 2009). Upton's BABIP is a career low .293 this year, which is low for someone with his speed. If he was near his career average, you are looking at an .800+ OPS hitter.

[davearm2]

In a vaccuum getting Upton for Lilly sounds pretty good, although frankly I like the Cubs' CF situation better as it is: Byrd now, Jackson later.

 

Now trading Lilly for Upton, then Byrd for something useful might be the best of all worlds.

 

Why not, after an Upton for Lilly swap, trade Kosuke and then platoon Byrd and Colvin in right? Or just give Byrd right field full time? He's played 109 games there and, while UZR gets pretty inaccurate in smaller sample sizes, is a 13.2 UZR/150 defender there.

 

It's not ideal, but his .845 OPS would be 5th in the NL among right fielders with at least 150 PAs. Let him play in right next year and then work on dealing him either at the deadline or in the 2011 offseason.

Well the main reason would be because I presume you could get more trading Byrd than Fukudome... probably a lot more, considering their contracts.

 

Meanwhile, their production as RFs next year would be about a wash. So may as well trade the more valuable asset and keep the less valuable one, if there's no production dropoff in doing so.

[17 Seconds]

Unlike Patterson, Upton can take a walk to combat his high K totals. Upton's power is decent too, but he has shown a lot more (24 HRs in 2007, 7 playoff HRs in 2009). Upton's BABIP is a career low .293 this year, which is low for someone with his speed. If he was near his career average, you are looking at an .800+ OPS hitter.

 

That's nice and all, but when are the results actually going to show up? This is what we talk about every year with BJ Upton. How he's supposed to be good and how he should be good, but then you look at the numbers and he's not good.

[Guest]

Unlike Patterson, Upton can take a walk to combat his high K totals. Upton's power is decent too, but he has shown a lot more (24 HRs in 2007, 7 playoff HRs in 2009). Upton's BABIP is a career low .293 this year, which is low for someone with his speed. If he was near his career average, you are looking at an .800+ OPS hitter.

 

That's nice and all, but when are the results actually going to show up? This is what we talk about every year with BJ Upton. How he's supposed to be good and how he should be good, but then you look at the numbers and he's not good.

 

Upton hasn't been great, but saying "he's not good" is underselling him. First of all, just looking at his slash stats undersells him, because he steals 40+ bases a year. He plays good defense at a premium position, has the scouting pedigree and past success to improve, and is just now entering his prime years. Why on earth would we not be interested in someone who will put up at least a 2 WAR in CF, with the reasonable potential to be a 5 win player?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I wouldnt mind at all dealing Lilly for Upton, however, Carl Crawford remaining with the Rays beyond 2010 is unlikely, and I dont know what kind of outfiled depth the Rays have in have in the minors, so they might want to keep Upton around. I could understand dealing him in a deal for Cliff Lee, but Ted Lilly, I just dont see it.

[Exile on Waveland]

I would be all over Lilly-for-Uptown. That's a buy-low scenario where you get a player with tons and tons of talent -- who has actually produced at some point in the past.

[dew1679666265]

Well the main reason would be because I presume you could get more trading Byrd than Fukudome... probably a lot more, considering their contracts.

 

Meanwhile, their production as RFs next year would be about a wash. So may as well trade the more valuable asset and keep the less valuable one, if there's no production dropoff in doing so.

 

That's a legit argument and I don't necessarily disagree. My main contention, I guess, was you appearing to disregard the Upton/Lilly swap because we had Byrd and Jackson waiting in the wings.

 

I wouldn't turn down that trade because of any current OFs on our ML roster because there are ways to make it work.

[erik316wttn]

I would be all over Lilly-for-Uptown. That's a buy-low scenario where you get a player with tons and tons of talent -- who has actually produced at some point in the past.

 

We could certainly do a hell of a lot worse.

[davearm2]

Well the main reason would be because I presume you could get more trading Byrd than Fukudome... probably a lot more, considering their contracts.

 

Meanwhile, their production as RFs next year would be about a wash. So may as well trade the more valuable asset and keep the less valuable one, if there's no production dropoff in doing so.

 

That's a legit argument and I don't necessarily disagree. My main contention, I guess, was you appearing to disregard the Upton/Lilly swap because we had Byrd and Jackson waiting in the wings.

 

I wouldn't turn down that trade because of any current OFs on our ML roster because there are ways to make it work.

5 starting OFs for 3 spots is untenable. Even if you want to argue that Colvin isn't a "starting" OF, 4 guys/3 spots is still an issue. And that's without considering Jackson.

 

Thus making one trade makes it imperative to make another.

 

That's not a dealbreaker, mind you, just problematic, whereas trading for a similar young/talented 1B or 2B would be ideal.

[lumafia]

I wouldnt mind at all dealing Lilly for Upton, however, Carl Crawford remaining with the Rays beyond 2010 is unlikely, and I dont know what kind of outfiled depth the Rays have in have in the minors, so they might want to keep Upton around. I could understand dealing him in a deal for Cliff Lee, but Ted Lilly, I just dont see it.

 

The Rays have full intentions of re-signing Crawford. They feel like they can sneak into the playoffs with Crawford, Zobrist and Jennings in the OF in 2011, and they may be right. Upton is as good as gone, and they would prefer to move him now. If the Cubs are desperate to unload Lilly, Tampa Bay is a likely destination. However, the Rays won't deal unless we take Upton off their hands. I don't know if the Cubs make that deal based on the fact that they will have a huge surplus of OF's.

[SouthSideRyan]

Was Upton a disaster at 2B?

[fromthestretch]

Was Upton a disaster at 2B?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

Looks like his infield defense was pretty horrible.

[sneakypower]

he's got one of the best arms in the game, 2B would be a tremendous waste of his talent. i think he could be consistently near +10 in RF

[dew1679666265]

5 starting OFs for 3 spots is untenable. Even if you want to argue that Colvin isn't a "starting" OF, 4 guys/3 spots is still an issue. And that's without considering Jackson.

 

Thus making one trade makes it imperative to make another.

 

That's not a dealbreaker, mind you, just problematic, whereas trading for a similar young/talented 1B or 2B would be ideal.

 

I definitely agree I'd prefer an equally talented 1B or 2B. However, if the Rays would do a Lilly/Upton deal, I'd go ahead and make the trade and figure out what to do with all the outfielders after the trade.

 

Upton would be our most talented outfielder and would have the biggest upside of any current outfielder on the roster. I'd make the trade as soon as I could and then work on dealing either Byrd or Kosuke (preferable if there's interest).

[rawaction]

I don't think it would be too hard to trade Fukudome. If the object is nowhere for Colvin to play, I would gladly include him in the deal if I can get a pitcher or prospect from TB.

 

Lilly and Colvin for Upton and a P would work for me. Colvin should be happy as I'm sure he'd get plenty of ABs the rest of this year (if he keeps hitting) and would be in the mix to start if they can't re-sign Crawford. Even if they re-sign Crawford, he can still be in the mix w/ Zobrist able to play so many positions and the DH possibilities.

[jersey cubs fan]

Colvin should be happy as I'm sure he'd get plenty of ABs the rest of this year (if he keeps hitting)

 

Or if he starts hitting again, because he hasn't been for a while.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think it would be too hard to trade Fukudome. If the object is nowhere for Colvin to play, I would gladly include him in the deal if I can get a pitcher or prospect from TB.

 

Lilly and Colvin for Upton and a P would work for me. Colvin should be happy as I'm sure he'd get plenty of ABs the rest of this year (if he keeps hitting) and would be in the mix to start if they can't re-sign Crawford. Even if they re-sign Crawford, he can still be in the mix w/ Zobrist able to play so many positions and the DH possibilities.

 

Would it make sense for the Rays to deal Upton for Colvin? Seems like it'd make more sense from their viewpoint to keep Upton in that scenario and just trade a pitcher for Lilly.

[Backtobanks]

It might be interesting to keep Colvin and see if he can take over at 1B next year. I think I read that he played 1B at Clemson. It might not be bad to have a Nady (or clone)/ Colvin platoon at 1B next year.

[jersey cubs fan]

It might be interesting to keep Colvin and see if he can take over at 1B next year. I think I read that he played 1B at Clemson. It might not be bad to have a Nady (or clone)/ Colvin platoon at 1B next year.

 

It would probably be very bad to have Colvin play 1B next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Whhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyy does the Colvin at 1B idea keep coming up?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Whhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyy does the Colvin at 1B idea keep coming up?

because he's a lefty

[Guest]

It might be interesting to keep Colvin and see if he can take over at 1B next year. I think I read that he played 1B at Clemson. It might not be bad to have a Nady (or clone)/ Colvin platoon at 1B next year.

 

He did play first base his junior year at Clemson but he would provide below average offensive production at first.

[rawaction]

It might be interesting to keep Colvin and see if he can take over at 1B next year. I think I read that he played 1B at Clemson. It might not be bad to have a Nady (or clone)/ Colvin platoon at 1B next year.

 

He did play first base his junior year at Clemson but he would provide below average offensive production at first.

 

Kinda like the 1B production this year.