Jim Edmonds Signs With Cubs, Pie to AAA

[Hairyducked Idiot]

well, anyone who has seen the first month of the year could tell you that pie doesn't have the ability to put up a .900 OPS against major league RHP at this stage of his career; he needs better discipline and pitch recognition skills for that to happen. and, as i said a page back, PECOTA doesn't have the ability to determine when a guy is going to age well, or fall off a cliff in terms of production. edmonds EqA trend the past 4 years:

 

2004: .341

2005: .307

2006: .285

2007: .260

 

now the PECOTA projections are .263 and .271 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. how am i supposed to take those seriously when he's been shaving anywhere from 22 to 35 points off his EqA in the past few years? in my opinion, PECOTA really can't tell us anything about jim edmonds. he's well past his prime, he can't run well, his bat is much slower, he doesn't have much power any more.

 

Assuming four straight declines means a guaranteed fifth decline is reverse gambler's fallacy.

 

PECOTA does attempt to measure the chances of a guy falling off a cliff, I just oversimplified it by using averages. Edmonds does have a high risk of collapse.

 

As far as Pie, anybody who watched Pie in the first month saw him for 60 PAs against righties. And anyone who thinks they can make projections or conclusions from 60 PAs is wronger than PECOTA could ever be.

 

I think all the evidence, outside of a very small sample this season, says there is a clear hierarchy of ability to hit right-handed pitching amongst the three, and it is Pie, Edmonds, Johnson without any of the three being particularly close.

[CuseCubFan69]

It's too bad Dusty is gone because that would have made things perfect.

 

Come on guys in Chicago, what's the word on the street for this really being true?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

he's well past his prime, he can't run well, his bat is much slower, he doesn't have much power any more.

 

For the record, I agree with all of this. However, none of it disqualifies him from being a better hitter vs. righties than Reed Johnson. That's a pretty low bar to hop.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's too bad Dusty is gone because that would have made things perfect.

 

Come on guys in Chicago, what's the word on the street for this really being true?

 

Various newspaper and radio sources believe it to be a done deal.

[TruffleShuffle]

At the same time, that only applies when Edmonds hits the ball on the ground... which he does at a rate of about half the time that Ichiro does. If you want to adjust his numbers down a tick on account of his declining speed, I wont put up a fight. But to act like it even comes close to approximating his actual drop in production would be foolish. Any way you want to cut it, he's been hurt pretty badly by luck the last three years. You can argue as to the extent of it, but you can't argue that his perceived decline has been greatly exacerbated by the bloops just not falling in as often as they should.

 

well, my guess is that there's more at play than just declining luck the past four years. the liners probably aren't as hard, and his bat control isn't as good to guide the ball into gaps and holes. he's probably also becoming easier to defend:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=113744&statType=1

 

unfortunately this stupid thing won't pull up data from edmonds at busch in previous years, but you can see that very few of his batted balls are going to right field. i would guess that if you looked at his data from 3 years ago, you'd see that he'd be using right field a lot more. now that his bat is slower, he can't get around on fastballs as effectively, so opposing teams can shade him to hit most of his balls to the left side.

[jyoung55]

Anyone going to capitalize on this financially and start selling t-shirts at Wrigley with Edmonds name with one of those circles with the line through it? Or there could even be a picture of eyeliner, an unnecessary dive, and an 80s style cut off shirt in that circle as well.

 

Gold mine, I tell you!

 

As a fan among mostly cardinals fan who has given those cardinal fans some much grief for their pretty boy cf'er, I may have to go into hiding if this happens.

[CuseCubFan69]

It's too bad Dusty is gone because that would have made things perfect.

 

Come on guys in Chicago, what's the word on the street for this really being true?

 

Various newspaper and radio sources believe it to be a done deal.

 

Awesome! Wait, it's time for my medicine....I'll be right back.

[TruffleShuffle]

As far as Pie, anybody who watched Pie in the first month saw him for 60 PAs against righties. And anyone who thinks they can make projections or conclusions from 60 PAs is wronger than PECOTA could ever be.

 

i do agree with this; however, nobody is going to OPS .900 while taking at least a quarter of the year to adjust (and OPS'ing at .600) unless they all of a sudden click and start hitting like roid-era bonds. Pie would have to OPS something like 1.000 from here on out to wipe out his lousy start. obviously i am in the camp that believes he can be a solid major league player, but his PECOTA projection indicated a minimal adjustment time to big league pitching, and that clearly isn't the case.

[jersey cubs fan]

but Edmonds isn't worthless as some would like to imply based on the fact that he's old and has a bad 100 PAs.

 

This is just straight up absurd.

 

He's worthless based on his age, health, rapid and steady decline over several years, horrible 2007 and atrocious start to 2008.

 

Don't pretend people are basing this on 100 PA, it makes you look ridiculous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As far as Pie, anybody who watched Pie in the first month saw him for 60 PAs against righties. And anyone who thinks they can make projections or conclusions from 60 PAs is wronger than PECOTA could ever be.

 

i do agree with this; however, nobody is going to OPS .900 while taking at least a quarter of the year to adjust (and OPS'ing at .600) unless they all of a sudden click and start hitting like roid-era bonds. Pie would have to OPS something like 1.000 from here on out to wipe out his lousy start. obviously i am in the camp that believes he can be a solid major league player, but his PECOTA projection indicated a minimal adjustment time to big league pitching, and that clearly isn't the case.

 

Fair point. But I think, given regular playing time, he could OPS .900 against righties from this point on.

[jersey cubs fan]

Assuming four straight declines means a guaranteed fifth decline is reverse gambler's fallacy..

 

No it isn't. Gambler's fallacy assumes a random occurence.

 

An aging ballplayer at the end of his career following several injuries and post-concussion syndrome is hardly random.

[Soul]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

[CuseCubFan69]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

 

That's what I'm counting on Soul.

[Moises a loo]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

 

That's what I'm counting on Soul.

 

It's just a brilliant motivational technique for Pie. He'll go 3-for-3 with two walks tonight, and this will all go away.

 

Right?

[CuseCubFan69]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

 

That's what I'm counting on Soul.

 

It's just a brilliant motivational technique for Pie. He'll go 3-for-3 with two walks tonight, and this will all go away.

 

Right?

 

That's gold Hendry, pure gold!

[VanceJergins]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

 

That's what I'm counting on Soul.

 

It's just a brilliant motivational technique for Pie. He'll go 3-for-3 with two walks tonight, and this will all go away.

 

Right?

 

You actually think Pie will play tonight?

[SouthSideRyan]

Surely someone is going to post soon that this was all a bad joke.

 

That's what I'm counting on Soul.

 

It's just a brilliant motivational technique for Pie. He'll go 3-for-3 with two walks tonight, and this will all go away.

 

Right?

 

You actually think Pie will play tonight?

 

Yeah, Marquis is starting so he can't pinch run for Ward.

[CuseCubFan69]

Any chance the Cubs can get Joe Buck too?

[RedFlash]

I know this reeks of "lightning in the bottle", and if Piniella/Hnedry wants Edmonds, they'll get him, but isn't it possible that Edmonds could give the Cubs atleast a decent line in about 250 at-bats for the rest of the yr? Look I prefer Pie playing in CF over Edmonds/Johnson, that's not going to happen until 2009.

 

I'm not 100% behind this move, heck, I am not even 30% behind this move, but I l realize, it doesn't mean much how I feel (or anybody here feel), but barring a surprising move, Edmonds will be a Cub. We can hope that if he craps out for about 2 weeks or so, the Cubs will cut ties, quickly. I'm hoping for a Gary Gaetti type numbers for Edmonds, but I would even take a line of .250/.330/.410 from Edmonds.

[CuseCubFan69]

I know this reeks of "lightning in the bottle", and if Piniella/Hnedry wants Edmonds, they'll get him, but isn't it possible that Edmonds could give the Cubs atleast a decent line in about 250 at-bats for the rest of the yr? Look I prefer Pie playing in CF over Edmonds/Johnson, that's not going to happen until 2009.

 

I'm not 100% behind this move, heck, I am not even 30% behind this move, but I l realize, it doesn't mean much how I feel (or anybody here feel), but barring a surprising move, Edmonds will be a Cub. We can hope that if he craps out for about 2 weeks or so, the Cubs will cut ties, quickly. I'm hoping for a Gary Gaetti type numbers for Edmonds, but I would even take a line of .250/.330/.410 from Edmonds.

 

I'm hoping he visits Roger and gets a years supply of the good stuff.

[Rob]

and, as i said a page back, PECOTA doesn't have the ability to determine when a guy is going to age well, or fall off a cliff in terms of production.

 

Well that's just patently untrue.

[TruffleShuffle]

i would take .240/.320/.310 from edmonds. that's better than i'm expecting out of him.

[Outshined_One]

but Edmonds isn't worthless as some would like to imply based on the fact that he's old and has a bad 100 PAs.

 

It's one thing to take a random sample size out of context and pass judgment on the guy based solely on that sample size.

 

It's another thing altogether to put that sample size into context and come to a conclusion based upon the combination of those things. It's not just that Edmonds was unlucky, it's that his injuries and age have clearly caught up to him at the plate and in the field. He's not hitting hard shots all over PETCO that end up caught on the warning track or that see him get robbed. His injuries have sapped his bat speed to the point where I have to legitimately wonder whether he'll be able to consistently hit for any kind of power again in his career. His speed has similarly been reduced drastically to the point where I think it would be a safe bet to say he'd be a defensive downgrade from Reed Johnson.

 

Perhaps he would be an offensive upgrade from Reed Johnson against right handers. However, Neifi Perez in 2005 had better splits against right handers than Reed Johnson has now. Using the offensive upgrade argument is folly, plain and simple.

 

Edmonds is worthless to this team. I don't want him anywhere near it.

[UMFan83]

I know this reeks of "lightning in the bottle", and if Piniella/Hnedry wants Edmonds, they'll get him, but isn't it possible that Edmonds could give the Cubs atleast a decent line in about 250 at-bats for the rest of the yr? Look I prefer Pie playing in CF over Edmonds/Johnson, that's not going to happen until 2009.

 

There are three things wrong about this move that makes this among the worst possible players to acquire:

 

-Hated and villified player who is most known for being fan favorite on arch rival

-Once great player with rediculously declining skills (both offensively and defensively), also known to be a bad clubhouse person

-Replacing the team's perennial top prospect before top prospect gets a consistent chance to play and prove himself at this level.

 

Meanwhile, the offense isn't broke. We lead all of baseball in runs score, and while its unlikely that it will stay that way all year, its certainly not worth replacing an above average defensive CF with an improving bat with a below average CF with a declining bat.

 

Everything about this move is wrong. There is no silver lining or really any grey area at all in this move, unless Edmonds reverts to 2005 form offensively. But even then, he's still hated and he's still replacing our top prospect.

[CuseCubFan69]

I know this reeks of "lightning in the bottle", and if Piniella/Hnedry wants Edmonds, they'll get him, but isn't it possible that Edmonds could give the Cubs atleast a decent line in about 250 at-bats for the rest of the yr? Look I prefer Pie playing in CF over Edmonds/Johnson, that's not going to happen until 2009.

 

There are three things wrong about this move that makes this among the worst possible players to acquire:

 

-Hated and villified player who is most known for being fan favorite on arch rival

-Once great player with rediculously declining skills (both offensively and defensively), also known to be a bad clubhouse person

-Replacing the team's perennial top prospect before top prospect gets a consistent chance to play and prove himself at this level.

 

Meanwhile, the offense isn't broke. We lead all of baseball in runs score, and while its unlikely that it will stay that way all year, its certainly not worth replacing an above average defensive CF with an improving bat with a below average CF with a declining bat.

 

Everything about this move is wrong. There is no silver lining or really any grey area at all in this move, unless Edmonds reverts to 2005 form offensively. But even then, he's still hated and he's still replacing our top prospect.

 

 

Unless...I cringe as I write this....the Cubs are signing Edmonds and trading Pie for pitching.