Matsuzaka: Red Sox Win w/ $51.1M Bid

[Pinktermite]

Just how much extra money do the Cubs have to spend? I'm not sure spending essentially up to 80 million (contract plus bid) would be worth it in the end.

 

I'd rather have Padilla and maybe Ted Lilly...or Schmidt maybe. We don't need STELLAR starting pitching...if we can improve the offense. I think the Cards proved that.

 

It just doesn't seem worth it to me.

[Sammy Sofa]

Just how much extra money do the Cubs have to spend? I'm not sure spending essentially up to 80 million (contract plus bid) would be worth it in the end.

 

I'd rather have Padilla and maybe Ted Lilly...or Schmidt maybe. We don't need STELLAR starting pitching...if we can improve the offense. I think the Cards proved that.

 

It just doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

No?

 

You do realize how bad the Cubs' starting pitching was last year, right?

[TheDude]

Just how much extra money do the Cubs have to spend? I'm not sure spending essentially up to 80 million (contract plus bid) would be worth it in the end.

 

I'd rather have Padilla and maybe Ted Lilly...or Schmidt maybe. We don't need STELLAR starting pitching...if we can improve the offense. I think the Cards proved that.

 

It just doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

Yes you do need stellar pitching to win it all. The Cardinals were the exception, beneficiaries of a Tigers defense that collapsed.

 

But to your point, if it costs 80 million for 5 years of Matsuzaka, that's seems like an extreme gamble.

[JeffH]

Yes you do need stellar pitching to win it all.

 

True. You don't, however, necessarily need stellar pitchers.

[goonys evil twin]

Yes you do need stellar pitching to win it all.

 

True. You don't, however, necessarily need stellar pitchers.

 

That's the dilemma. You need stellar pitching at the right time, but it's impossible to say which pitchers will be pitching stellarly at the right time. The White Sox won with stellar pitching by very non stellar pitchers. Florida's pitching staff was highly touted, after they won, but none of those guys has done a whole lot since. Boston won with some stellar pitchers, but also had journeyman types step up at the right time. Anaheim had a stellar staff, but it wasn't stocked with stellar pitchers.

[radarluv1]

on xm's home plate yesterday around lunchtime, they had someone from the ny times on, sounded like a yankees beat writer. did anyone else hear this?

he said that boras was saying matz would not be a FA after next season if he went back to japan but he would the following season, due to his service time over there. this was different than everything else ive heard or read here. if thats true, that would give the player and boras even less leverage in the subsequent negotiations. and for that reason i have no idea why boras would mention it.

[radarluv1]

How does a 30 million dollar bid followed by a 5 year/50 mil contract with an team out clause after 2008?

 

How about a 30 million dollar bid with a 4/30 contract with a player option for the 5th year?

 

works for me as well.

Question is, how much is boras going to want to string out of the winner.

 

Considering the "window" for the winner of the bid and Boras/Matsuzaka would have when talking contract. Boras can't really afford to "string out the winner." Right now, if the Cubs win the bid....I would offer Boras/Matsazaka a "generous deal" of 5 yrs $50 mill (as someone allude to earlier) at the start of the negotiations, and tell Boras that the deal won't change much up or down. The franchise that wins the bid, wins all together, whether they signed him or not.

 

Is there anything to stop a team, say like the Orioles or Blue Jays, from bidding some outrageous number (with no intention of signing the player) so that the Yankees don't win? Because, as I understand, if the teams don't come to a deal, the team gets its bid money back. I think all of MLB would hate that team, so maybe that's the answer to my question.

 

Yes there is...In fact it was answer earlier in the thread. The cliff notes version of the answer would..if a team is proven o only make a bid (and low ball in neg....), just to keep him away from another team, Selig would pretty much step in, and void the deal. The rights to Matuazaka would go to the 2nd highest bidder.

 

how do you prove that? you've already sunk $30 M into the player, would 5/40 or 5/35 really be lowballing? thats 14 or 13 per year.

what a dumb process.

 

edited for spelling. smrt poster!

[goonys evil twin]

on xm's home plate yesterday around lunchtime, they had someone from the ny times on, sounded like a yankees beat writer. did anyone else hear this?

he said that boras was saying matz would not be a FA after next season if he went back to japan but he would the following season, due to his service time over there. this was different than everything else ive heard or read here. if thats true, that would give the player and boras even less leverage in the subsequent negotiations. and for that reason i have no idea why boras would mention it.

 

If it's true, I'd imagine Boras would mention it because he knew everybody who mattered already knew that, and he was just being honest about the situation. It doesn't serve him much good to pretend the guy is a free agent next year, if he isn't. That fact might lessen their leverage, but his acknowleding that fact does not.

[abuck1220]

How does a 30 million dollar bid followed by a 5 year/50 mil contract with an team out clause after 2008?

 

How about a 30 million dollar bid with a 4/30 contract with a player option for the 5th year?

 

works for me as well.

Question is, how much is boras going to want to string out of the winner.

 

Considering the "window" for the winner of the bid and Boras/Matsuzaka would have when talking contract. Boras can't really afford to "string out the winner." Right now, if the Cubs win the bid....I would offer Boras/Matsazaka a "generous deal" of 5 yrs $50 mill (as someone allude to earlier) at the start of the negotiations, and tell Boras that the deal won't change much up or down. The franchise that wins the bid, wins all together, whether they signed him or not.

 

Is there anything to stop a team, say like the Orioles or Blue Jays, from bidding some outrageous number (with no intention of signing the player) so that the Yankees don't win? Because, as I understand, if the teams don't come to a deal, the team gets its bid money back. I think all of MLB would hate that team, so maybe that's the answer to my question.

 

Yes there is...In fact it was answer earlier in the thread. The cliff notes version of the answer would..if a team is proven o only make a bid (and low ball in neg....), just to keep him away from another team, Selig would pretty much step in, and void the deal. The rights to Matuazaka would go to the 2nd highest bidder.

 

how do you prove that? you've already sunk $30 M into the player, would 5/40 or 5/35 really be lowballing? thats 14 or 13 per year.

what a dumb process.

 

edited for spelling. smrt poster!

 

they would get the 30 mil back if they didn't sign him.

[Outshined_One]

Plus that $30m would not find its way into said player's pocket.

[da bears]

This is a lot of money going into this guy. I really hope the Cubs get him, though.

[abuck1220]

i want the cubs to get him mainly because i'm bored with the cubs.

[radarluv1]

Plus that $30m would not find its way into said player's pocket.

 

right, but the winning team may not see that as their problem. i'm just imagining how the team would defend an offer that was deemed to be too low by selig and of course boras. if they've already paid 30, are they also expected to pay top FA money in addition to that?

[1908]

boras was saying matz would not be a FA after next season if he went back to japan but he would the following season, due to his service time over there.

A player earns free agency after 9 years in NPB, but the player has to be on the active roster for at least so many days each season. If a player falls short by X number of days for one year, those days need to be made up in another year, but extra days for a given year don't count toward those makeup days. So it's a minimum of 9 years before free agency, with many players averaging 10 to 11 years. Making things even more frustrating, players' service time isn't made readily available to the public -- I don't know what the days threshold is for free agency even -- so it's almost impossible to predict who will be and who won't be a free agent until the list is officially announced by NPB. Getting back to Matsuzaka, it's entirely possible he won't be a free agent until after the 2008 season, even though the 2007 season would be his ninth season in Japan.

[FergieJ31]

A while back I asked what sort of MLB numbers Matsuzaka's NPB stats would roughly project to. Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Jim Albright has done some research which is discussed here:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/putting-a-price-on-matsuzaka/

 

Keep in mind the Yankees were the team that was used for the projection method, so throw out those 19-5, 17-4 projected WL records (a team stat). But look at the rest of the numbers ... if he even just meets those projections he's a top 5 pitcher in either league. If he exceeds them, he'll win Cy Young.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11082006/sports/yankees/battle_of_the_bids_yankees_michael_morrissey.htm?page=0

[RyCubsFan]

Yanks, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, and Diamondbacks

 

These are the teams, barring any surprises (aka Tigers).

 

One rumor out of NYC I hear is that the Mets would prefer to trade for Willis. They could center the deal on Milledge.

 

We haven't heard much out of the Red Sox....

 

I'll be suprised if Arizona or SD has enough money. And I can see Boras telling Texas to back off...

 

Here's how I see the probability of the teams getting him:\

1. Yankees 2. Cubs 3. Red Sox 4. Mets 5. Rangers 6. Diamondbacks 7. Everyone else.

 

Go Cubbies!!!!!!!!!!!

[Banedon]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11082006/sports/yankees/battle_of_the_bids_yankees_michael_morrissey.htm?page=0

 

Rut Roh...he wants to play on a team with a chance to win...damn. :P

[UK1679666180]

Yanks, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, and Diamondbacks

 

These are the teams, barring any surprises (aka Tigers).

 

One rumor out of NYC I hear is that the Mets would prefer to trade for Willis. They could center the deal on Milledge.

 

We haven't heard much out of the Red Sox....

 

I'll be suprised if Arizona or SD has enough money. And I can see Boras telling Texas to back off...

 

Here's how I see the probability of the teams getting him:\

1. Yankees 2. Cubs 3. Red Sox 4. Mets 5. Rangers 6. Diamondbacks 7. Everyone else.

 

Go Cubbies!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I read an article today saying the Mets might try and go after Peavy.

 

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11082006/sports/yankees/battle_of_the_bids_yankees_michael_morrissey.htm?page=0

[YearofDaCubs]

I would be shocked if we end up with Matsuzaka. I'm not going to get my hopes up especially with Hendry as GM and trying to outbid the Yankees and Mets. It doesn't look good.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I still think Hicks steps in and blows everyone away. I'd love for the Cubs to get him, but I'm not all that optimisitc.

[RyCubsFan]

TWO hours to the deadline.

 

Tick. Tick. Tick.

[Post Count Padder]

TWO hours to the deadline.

 

Tick. Tick. Tick.

I can hear the 24 clock going in my head as I count down the time til the deadline.

 

 

I also feel like I'm building myself up for a letdown.

[Vinestal]

***Vinestal stares blankly at his computer screen, refreshing every 5 minutes shaking violently, drool falling from the corner of his mouth like some drug crazed fiend***

 

please... Jim... I ... I... I need this signing...please .... pitching ... dear lord please Jim...

[ctcf]

I bet the Yankees win it.