Nico Extended

[Stratos]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Guess we will see. IMO the Cubs wouldn’t give him that amount. I agree he is probably worth it. But I think if they had to pay him that they would let him go. 

I dunno i mean they gave him just 1 less year than Swanson and more than Bregman.  Yeah guess we'll see.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The Cubs just gave Bregman 30m AAV and he's 3 years older.  Roughly the same fWAR.  Even at 30m AAV it would be arguably a better contract than what Bregman got based on the age.  But I don't think he gets 30m AAV, mostly because for whatever reason even a market run by FO ivy league stat geeks undervalues defense.

Bregman's bat is likely to age better into his mid-30s than Nico's speed/defense, and he didn't have the QO penalty that Nico would.  Also, if you're paying for 5 years at FA rates why would Jed be in a hurry to make that deal a year early

[mk49]

I would be surprised, if it's more than $25MIL AAV.  I'm glad he's going to stay for sure.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

How can they easily trade Swanson and his $27M contract? Do you mean give him away as a salary dump? Maybe they can trade him for another high priced player at a different position. But I wouldn’t consider it easy to trade Swanson. 
I do agree with you on Nico not getting more than $25M a year, let alone the $30M+ Bertz is suggesting. I don’t see that. If it is that, I agree with Bertz. I wouldn’t have done it. 

Yea, I just meant in general that they can trade him.

I realize not many teams gonna be looking to trade for a 34/35 yo SS (or move him to 3B) with 53 mil left on his contract, but IF Rojas shows progression this season and into 2027, I hope they'll find a way to move Swanson even if they have to eat some salary and or take a lesser return. 

 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Yea, I just meant in general that they can trade him.

I realize not many teams gonna be looking to trade for a 34/35 yo SS (or move him to 3B) with 53 mil left on his contract, but IF Rojas shows progression this season and into 2027, I hope they'll find a way to move Swanson even if they have to eat some salary and or take a lesser return. 

 

I don’t agree that a contending team trades a veteran player to make room for a 22 yr old SS. If they are no longer contending, I agree with you. But I expect they will be in contention. 

[Stratos]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Bregman's bat is likely to age better into his mid-30s than Nico's speed/defense, and he didn't have the QO penalty that Nico would.  Also, if you're paying for 5 years at FA rates why would Jed be in a hurry to make that deal a year early

I agree Bregman is more likely to age better into the mid 30s.  I'm interested to see if the 6 years starts this year or next year.  I assume next year.  I may have miscalculated, since this deal could be for ages 30-35 if it starts next year.  The length is a concern for me, but I'm not a huge fan of the Bregman deal either.

This team could start getting old quickly. especially if they resign any of Happ/Seiya.  The Cubs haven't won anything even with these guys in their primes, they need to win over the next few years, this is our widow.

[jersey cubs fan]

Not a huge fan of being locked into all glove no bat middle infield forever especially on a team with no offensive studs. Hopefully somebody in the minors is gonna be an impact corner OF bat and Bregman hits the high side of his ranges. Don’t have a problem with Hoerner and I like that he makes Shaw more expendable but he’s not a guy I’d hitch my wagon to

[CUBDOM4life]

I feel like finding out if there are any opt outs in this deal is really important to know before grading this contract

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Brewers are better at PD at the MLB level and the MiLB level. They have a loaded farm system and could leave us in the dust while our solid-yet-unspectacular roster wanes. It could get pretty ugly, pessimistically speaking. The spectre of MIL continuing to lord over us while spending peanuts looms large IMO. They absolutely have to take the division back. 

 

Unfortunately they are like Australia trying to keep up in the arms race. And that actually goes for the entire division. Like the Pirates are about to have a whole rotation of guys atop the average fb rankings. Luckily they are able to spend to fill out the pitching staff at a level far above the other teams. They cannot continue to lag so far behind in developing their own pitchers, however. They have to invest more in IFA and make a concerted effort to target 'live' arms. Its gotten a little better and the pitch labs have gotten decent results from some. But there is a shitload of flotsam still. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes if you assume the Brewers will be better at filling 90% of the roster indefinitely then it will be difficult to overcome that.

Also the Pirates seem fearsome if you focus on the best case scenario for their handful of pitchers and ignore that their offense looks extremely dire for the foreseeable future.

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Brewers are better at PD at the MLB level and the MiLB level. They have a loaded farm system and could leave us in the dust while our solid-yet-unspectacular roster wanes. It could get pretty ugly, pessimistically speaking. The spectre of MIL continuing to lord over us while spending peanuts looms large IMO. They absolutely have to take the division back. 

 

Unfortunately they are like Australia trying to keep up in the arms race. And that actually goes for the entire division. Like the Pirates are about to have a whole rotation of guys atop the average fb rankings. Luckily they are able to spend to fill out the pitching staff at a level far above the other teams. They cannot continue to lag so far behind in developing their own pitchers, however. They have to invest more in IFA and make a concerted effort to target 'live' arms. Its gotten a little better and the pitch labs have gotten decent results from some. But there is a shitload of flotsam still. 

I don't want to take anything away from what Milwaukee has done. They've done more with less than almost anyone and have crushed played dev and drafting. 

That said, all of the boogeyman Brewer things are the exact things that we said about the Cardinals a decade ago. They seemingly always found pitchers under the couch cushions, had an army of 5'8" infielders and had prospects with massive upsides boiling just under the surface. But eventually that pixie dust wears out. You can't hit 1.000 on your best prospects, and eventually the "if we just wish upon a star on this guy" won't turn that pumpkin into a 4 win player any more. 

The Brewers are a good organization, they deserve their praise. But the division will always have another good team in it. That's just baseball. And at some point their luck will run out. It's likely that in 2036 that the pixie dust will have transfered from Milwaukee at some point in the next few seasons to another team. The Cubs will always have to overcome other good teams on the way to the top of they are going to win baseball games.

As TT said, if all we look at is the best case scenarios everyone seems terrifying. But it's more likely something else occurs. The Cubs should do their thing, spend money like they can and hopefully continue to develop talent like they have recently. And they will be in positions to go to battle with whatever pixie dust teams they have to face in the division (and I say pixie dust teams because I don't foresee any of the other 4 spending big)

[Geographyhater8888]

What does having 3 early-mid 30’s infielders under contract in 2029, the teams highest paid players ATM, say about their faith in Shaw/Rojas and by extension their player development? 

Edited March 27 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What does having 3 early-mid 30’s infielders under contract in 2029, the teams highest paid players ATM, say about their faith in Shaw/Rojas and by extension their player development? 

I'm not sure it means anything. They signed Swanson before Shaw was even in the system as an example. 

The team didn't fire their entire development team or anything. They signed four win players to fill out their infield. That's what big market teams do. 

[Jason Ross]

On Nico; I'm not sure Id have done this one. In a vacuum, I think it's mostly fine. While I have concerns with defense/speed guys into their 30s, as a 2b, there is probably a little less concern as their is a little less defensive athleticism needed to play the position than say SS. Bat speed dips around 32 or 33 but Hoerner isn't a bat speed guy; I think his offensive profile mostly should age well. 

But what are they doing with Swanson over the next 3 years? Is the goal to have a 35 year old SS? Is Bregman playing 3b into his mid-to-lat 30s? 2b was a nice landing spot for either of them in the next few years and that's seemingly gone. Or is the plan to effectively swap them? Like is 30 year old Nico going to be the SS for a year or two?

It feels like they are boxed in a little defensively while the left side ages out. But hey, big market teams can take some financial risks and if the Cubs want to actually act like a big team, which extending players does suggest they may be more willing to act like moving forward, than I will take a bit of a wait and see approach. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

 

It feels like they are boxed in a little defensively while the left side ages out. But hey, big market teams can take some financial risks and if the Cubs want to actually act like a big team, which extending players does suggest they may be more willing to act like moving forward, than I will take a bit of a wait and see approach. 

Correct. If this means they go out and sign Skubal next winter, (I doubt it), package Shaw and or Rojas who’ll be blocked until 2030 for a corner outfield bat, or believe Shaw can develop into a 4 war outfielder, great.
 

 

Edited March 27 by Geographyhater8888

[JBears79]

Personally i like how our roster construction looks right now. We should have at least above average D for the rest of the decade and hopefully a cheap, above average pitching staff. Fill in the gaps with some power bats in the corners whether via trade or OF breakouts from Alcantara or Conrad and we are looking really good for the present and future.

Jed really earned some praise and goodwill from me this offseason. This is a high upside team with a lot of flexibility for the future imo.

[JunkyardWalrus]

If his contract is more than PCA, I’m going to be salty. 

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

If his contract is more than PCA, I’m going to be salty. 

 

It very well may be. In fact, it probably will be.  But we have to remember that Hoerner is being bought out of 6 years of free agency while PCA was being bought out of four years of arbitration and two of free agency. 

PCA's arbitration and initial FA years are far more expensive, however, than Hoerner's initial FA years, even when we account for inflation. 

[Bertz]

There's zero chance Hoerner makes less than PCA.  Zero.  PCA's still pre-arb, Hoerner's probably got food in his pantry that will still be good before he was set to hit free agency.

The question is whether it comes in closer to $150M or $200M.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's zero chance Hoerner makes less than PCA.  Zero.  PCA's still pre-arb, Hoerner's probably got food in his pantry that will still be good before he was set to hit free agency.

The question is whether it comes in closer to $150M or $200M.

Yeah, I’ll be absolutely shocked if it is less than PCA, and I don’t know why that would make anyone upset. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

I just don’t see a glove first 2b as a $20m a year player. 

I also don’t think, as many here have argued that Nico is worth the same as Kyle Tucker. 

I’m in the minority, I’m aware. I'm an old man yelling at clouds drowning in rain.  

But a glovey second basemen with zero thump doesn’t light my heart afire. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's zero chance Hoerner makes less than PCA.  Zero.  PCA's still pre-arb, Hoerner's probably got food in his pantry that will still be good before he was set to hit free agency.

The question is whether it comes in closer to $150M or $200M.

This just seems crazy to me. 

If Nico freaking Hoerner is the first Cub to break the $200m barrier, I will be gobsmacked. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I just don’t see a glove first 2b as a $20m a year player. 

I also don’t think, as many here have argued that Nico is worth the same as Kyle Tucker. 

I’m in the minority, I’m aware. I'm an old man yelling at clouds drowning in rain.  

But a glovey second basemen with zero thump doesn’t light my heart afire. 

But a glove first CF who is much much further away from FA should somehow still be paid more?

[JunkyardWalrus]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

But a glove first CF who is much much further away from FA should somehow still be paid more?

I was looking at PCA's contract more than anything. 6/115. Meaning, if Nico got 6/120+ he’d be making more than $20m/ year. That is where I’m getting hung up. I just don’t see defense demanding this kind of money around the league.

(And please explain how PCA is a ‘glove first’ center fielder? I must be missing something.)

[Radar3454]

Doubling his AAV and term of 3/35 would be 6/140. Nico is my favorite player, but that would be a bit more than I'd like for a player with no power playing a non premium position.