Nico Extended

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I just don’t see a glove first 2b as a $20m a year player. 

I also don’t think, as many here have argued that Nico is worth the same as Kyle Tucker. 

I’m in the minority, I’m aware. I'm an old man yelling at clouds drowning in rain.  

But a glovey second basemen with zero thump doesn’t light my heart afire. 

We use "glove first" as a negative thing, and a "bat-first" player as a positive but wins are wins. 

Nico Hoerner is a stead 3.5-4 win player. Those sign for around $9-$11m per win. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I was looking at PCA's contract more than anything. 6/115. Meaning, if Nico got 6/120+ he’d be making more than $20m/ year. That is where I’m getting hung up. I just don’t see defense demanding this kind of money around the league.

(And please explain how PCA is a ‘glove first’ center fielder? I must be missing something.)

Player A: 109 wRC+, 14 OAA
Player B: 109 wRC+, 21 OAA

These are 2025 numbers. One is Pete, the other is Nico. One cannot be glove first if the other is not. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Craig said they think there's more power in Nico. They might be a little high off his spring... but maybe there is. If he could just turn on the meatballs more often he could be closer to a 120 guy.

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Craig said they think there's more power in Nico. They might be a little high off his spring... but maybe there is. If he could just turn on the meatballs more often he could be closer to a 120 guy.

He's built like The Miz but somehow has 300 foot flyball power. It's confounding

[squally1313]

The downside of trying to unlock more power out of Hoerner seems so much worse than the upside. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

37 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Player A: 109 wRC+, 14 OAA
Player B: 109 wRC+, 21 OAA

These are 2025 numbers. One is Pete, the other is Nico. One cannot be glove first if the other is not. 

Sure. They went about those numbers in very different ways, as you know, and during very different parts of their career arcs. Seems like comparing Nico’s career year vs Pete’s second year should color the numbers some? Provide some context to view the data? Maybe not?

If not, sure, you’re right, if context matters, maybe there’s more to it?

I appreciate it’s a counting number and there’s far more to offensive value, but a player with 31 homeruns in a season is difficult for me to call ‘glove first’ just because his glove is amazing.

He may be flawed offensively, but I would argue he's a dangerous bat in a lineup, far more than to be relegated as ‘glove first’ player.

We’ll see if Nico is valued more like Kyle Tucker or Gimenez soon enough.

(Go Cubs!)

[17 Seconds]

2 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Sure. They went about those numbers in very different ways, as you know, and during very different parts of their career arcs. Seems like comparing Nico’s career year vs Pete’s second year should color the numbers some? Provide some context to view the data? Maybe not?

If not, sure, you’re right, if context matters, maybe there’s more to it?

I appreciate it’s a counting number and there’s far more to offensive value, but a player with 31 homeruns in a season is difficult for me to call ‘glove first’ just because his glove is amazing.

He may be flawed offensively, but I would argue he's a dangerous bat in a lineup, far more than to be relegated as ‘glove first’ player.

We’ll see if Nico is valued more like Kyle Tucker or Gimenez soon enough.

(Go Cubs!)

where are you getting this tucker stuff?

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I appreciate it’s a counting number and there’s far more to offensive value, but a player with 31 homeruns in a season is difficult for me to call ‘glove first’ just because his glove is amazing.

He may be flawed offensively, but I would argue he's a dangerous bat in a lineup, far more than to be relegated as ‘glove first’ player.

But the 'dangerous bat' had 32 less hits and 10 less walks than the glove first second baseman. In almost identical plate appearances (649 for Nico, 647 for PCA), PCA got on base 42 less times. Home runs are definitely nice. So is not making outs. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

where are you getting this tucker stuff?

Yeah just to clarify, Tucker got $57m AAV (after discounting for deferrals). The number on the high end that's been thrown out here is $30. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

All things I agree with, I believe the league pays more for power, much more than for defense.

That’s my argument. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nico was 4th among qualified 2B in offensive value last year

[JunkyardWalrus]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah just to clarify, Tucker got $57m AAV (after discounting for deferrals). The number on the high end that's been thrown out here is $30. 

It was in the Tucker vs Nico trade package talk. The argument was Nico was equal to Tucker in prospect package returns. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The downside of trying to unlock more power out of Hoerner seems so much worse than the upside. 

You may be right. Has to be discerning on which pitches to muster up on. He will hit a lot of can of corn fbs.

[BKHoo]

19 hours ago, chibears55 said:

This is great news

So right now, for the next 3 seasons (27-29) the Cubs are set with...

Amaya, Busch, Hoerner,  Swanson,  Bregman, PCA, and Ballesteros 

Not a bad group to build around 

 

 

It’s nice - the entire infield plus CF is set. We will get to see the same guys for a long time. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Sure. They went about those numbers in very different ways, as you know, and during very different parts of their career arcs. Seems like comparing Nico’s career year vs Pete’s second year should color the numbers some? Provide some context to view the data? Maybe not?

If not, sure, you’re right, if context matters, maybe there’s more to it?

I appreciate it’s a counting number and there’s far more to offensive value, but a player with 31 homeruns in a season is difficult for me to call ‘glove first’ just because his glove is amazing.

He may be flawed offensively, but I would argue he's a dangerous bat in a lineup, far more than to be relegated as ‘glove first’ player.

We’ll see if Nico is valued more like Kyle Tucker or Gimenez soon enough.

(Go Cubs!)

wRC+ is there to ignore biases. You have biases and they're clear here. Home runs = value to you. But Pete Crow Armstrong reached base at a .287 clip last year compared to Nico Hoerner who reached base far more often, with a .335 rate. wRC+ is there to take away your blind spots...which you have. We all do, it's not like a "you" thing, but wRC+ says they were both 9% better than league average. PCA does that by hitting a lot of home runs but doesn't get on base a lot. Hoerner doesn't hit home runs, but then gets on base a heck of a lot more. It's cool that Pete hits bombs, but it's really not cool that he gets on base well below league average. 

What Pete Crow-Armstrong does in year-3 is theoretical. There's no guarantee he gets better. What we can say is that despite Pete Crow-Armstrong out homering Nico Hoerner 41 to 14 over 2024-2025, the only two full years they have both played, Hoerner has been the better hitter. 

 Hoerner's 6 years of free agency are going to be more expensive than PCA's 2 years of FA and 4 years of arbitration because of what you're buying.  

[Stratos]

49 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Craig said they think there's more power in Nico. They might be a little high off his spring... but maybe there is. If he could just turn on the meatballs more often he could be closer to a 120 guy.

Nico has poor bad speed and has never had anything but poor EV in his career.  

[Stratos]

Tucker will probably age better, but Tucker is a 5.0 WAR player and Nico is a 4.5 WAR player, the gap in value between them isn't very large.  Fans and FOs are biased towards HR and offense.

Bregman isn't a better player than Nico because one does it more with the bat and the other does it more with the glove and baserunning. You could throw Swanson in there too.

[We Got The Whole 9]

44 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Nico has poor bad speed and has never had anything but poor EV in his career.  

Same with Bregman.

[Stratos]

44 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Same with Bregman.

Bregman has below-average bat speed not near bottom of the league, and his avg EV and hardhit% is average not near bottom of the league.

We've seen Nico try to pull balls in the air and it just doesn't work for him.   Spraying linedrives and yanking liners down the 3b line for doubles seems to work a lot better for him

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

If his contract is more than PCA, I’m going to be salty. 

 

It is going to be. What you are failing to understand is PCA has 4 years of arbitration before he makes real money. Next year PCA would probably make $5M in arbitration. The next year maybe $8M or $9M. Then maybe $15M. Nico is past those arbitration years. He will get more because he doesn’t have to worry about early years and lower salaries. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Bregman has below-average bat speed not near bottom of the league, and his avg EV and hardhit% is average not near bottom of the league.

We've seen Nico try to pull balls in the air and it just doesn't work for him.   Spraying linedrives and yanking liners down the 3b line for doubles seems to work a lot better for him

So one thing that we need to understand here on bat speed and EV: players who trade contact for power tend to lower their bat speed (this keeps the bat in the hit-box longer and gives them more swing control) thus dropping their EV. They further drop their EV as they trade K's (which have no effect on EV) for weak contact (which lowers our average EV). 

The idea that Hoerner could increase his power is possible. But we'd likely see an increase in bat speed, an increase in K's, and thus, EV's and hard hit% would go up. 

It doesn't always work out. Jake McCarthy with Arizona is good example of this. He traded power for contact last year and became a far worse hitter.

[BKHoo]

12 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What does having 3 early-mid 30’s infielders under contract in 2029, the teams highest paid players ATM, say about their faith in Shaw/Rojas and by extension their player development? 

The Nico deal surprises me a bit.  I thought they’d let him go next year via free agency and then just let Shaw slide into second base for five years plus.  He is much much much cheaper.  

[Bertz]

It is funny to me that there is a pretty large and vocal part of this fanbase that lets Milwaukee live rent-free in their heads and yet loses their minds when the Cubs do anything besides prioritize homeruns.

[Radar3454]

I don't think the Cubs do the deal now unless it involved a significant discount. Can't wait until the deets are reported. 

[Backtobanks]

11 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

The Nico deal surprises me a bit.  I thought they’d let him go next year via free agency and then just let Shaw slide into second base for five years plus.  He is much much much cheaper.  

He is much much much cheaper because he's not nearly as good as Hoerner.