Divisional Round: Bears vs Rams Sunday at 5:30 on NBC

[Wilson A2000]

18 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

If the oline gets rolling, I could see this being like the Eagles game. The cold will wear out a D, and more importantly the Bears D seems like it is getting healthy at just the right time (outside of Edwards). Last year this same D was 13th in the league, if the D can play at that level we will have a pretty good shot at the NFCC

The Bears defenders are playing as opposed to sitting out, but Jaylon hasn’t looked particularly good and neither did Kyler. Both seem slow. TJ Edwards played, but Jackson might be the better player right now because TJ looked a step slow too. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

46 minutes ago, David said:

 

Reminds me of the Packers guys who called Caleb a "liability" and that the Bears will not win anything with Caleb at QB. They also said the Bears would be better if they had Jordan Love. 

[WrigleyField 22]

He doesn't know ball. Caleb can probably make case for most talented throwing to left, and yes I'm including Tua in that btw.

[gflore34]

I think Packers fans', such as these, are having a hard time coming to gripes with what appears to be the end.  The end of Packers series dominance, the end of the Bears being push overs, it's horsefeathers over, deal with it.  They also can't admit that Caleb' trending towards being very good, they've probably never seen a good Bears HC and QB in their lifetimes and it blows their minds.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I love how the bag on Caleb. Just watch when #18 wins a Super Bowl long before Love gets to the NFCC

[Soul]

49 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think Packers fans', such as these, are having a hard time coming to gripes with what appears to be the end.  The end of Packers series dominance, the end of the Bears being push overs, it's horsefeathers over, deal with it.  They also can't admit that Caleb' trending towards being very good, they've probably never seen a good Bears HC and QB in their lifetimes and it blows their minds.

• Denial
• Anger
• Bargaining
• Depression
• Acceptance

[raw]

I think this WILL be high-scoring game as weather doesn't help bad defenses. And these are 2 that are not playing very well right now. The Rams finished top 10 in scoring D. But they have doubled their points allowed per game from 13.5 for the first 11 games, to 28.3 in the last 7, including playoffs. They have given up at least 27 in every game since November 30 that they didn't face Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. And Brissett passed for over 500 yards in those 2 games.

The Bears defense has actually held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 16 or fewer points, including the powerhouse Lions offense and the Packers, both in Chicago (and Cleveland, which doesn't count). But they gave up 380+ yards against both teams. Conversely, the Rams offense has scored 30+ in 9 of their last 12 games. The 3x they didn't they scored 24, 28, and the lowest being 21 against the best defense in football. Even in terrible weather, I don't see this defense slowing down Stafford enough to keep this as a low scoring game.

Puka is an awful matchup for this defense. He missed the game last year, but he's the type of WR they've always had a ton of trouble with. Agile, slot WR, that's a good route runner. And then there's Davante Adams, noted Bear killer of lore, and they have a 3-headed monster at TE, which have always given the Bears trouble. Not super worried about the TEs and Adams, but they will be huge factors when the field gets shorter in the red zone.

The Rams have a solid run game w/ 2 RBs. They are best at outside zone. I wonder if the Bears may play a lot of dime defense with a healthy CJGJ and Kyler, who are good tacklers vs the run, and injured LBs. Gets them faster on D, though Jackson is speedier than Edwards. The Rams do the same and play the most dime in the league and dare teams to run on them. Part of the reason they do that, is they want to dare teams to run. The reason they want teams to run is because they have a bottom 5 secondary in the league when it comes to pass coverage. They are susceptible against good TEs and have struggled on the outside as well, allowing huge games to Michael Wilson, Jameson Williams, and Jalen Coker in recent weeks. They've even had some stinkers in the run game vs Atlanta and Seattle.

So weather be damned, this has all the makings of "last offense with the ball wins" game. And while every week the media says "you don't want to fall down big to this team", I think both teams are teams that can put up points in a hurry. The Rams have both blown 17 point leads and come back from 16 down in the last 5 weeks. The Bears have clearly done both this year as well. Both teams won on late TDs last week, so this one likely goes down the wire. 

I feel pretty good about this game. NOW this is house money. I know this whole season was, but the expectations change as you win games. The Rams were seen as the best team in football for most of this season before the late defensive collapse. And they are a collapse against Seattle away from this game potentially being in LA where I'd pick the Rams. Rams are favored, but this is almost a true toss up for me. Does the Bears luck run out? 
 

[Banedon]

I've seen a few different "analysis" of the Bears/Rams where national people think Braxton Jones is gonna be the LT.  Including Mina Kimes.  Which is just such a weird assumption since Benedet started multiple games for the Bears there this year.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Well Benedet kind of sucks and Jones has been pretty good for the last 5 years or whatever. They need to keep Caleb clean so I can see it.

[minnesotacubsfan]

33 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Well Benedet kind of sucks and Jones has been pretty good for the last 5 years or whatever. They need to keep Caleb clean so I can see it.

Jones sucks, and has sucked for several years

. And at least Benedet offers run protection

[BigSlick]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Can we stop their run game without blitzing? 

I hate to say it but I think it may help  the run defense to have DeMarco Jackson out there instead of TJ Edwards. Jackson has just locked faster and better getting to the ball carrier this year. 

I also don't know how effective Billings has been and him being out in the second half of the game correlated to better production by the D-Line. I love Billings, he's probably the guy I enjoy seeing playing out there of anyone, but he's really not soaking up blockers or causing much disruption. 

[bukie]

Wild stat that may only interest me:

Sean Mcvay has made the playoffs in 7 of his 9 years with the Rams, and Sunday will be his 15th playoff game.

He has never played the same team in the playoffs twice.

[raw]

1 hour ago, bukie said:

Wild stat that may only interest me:

Sean Mcvay has made the playoffs in 7 of his 9 years with the Rams, and Sunday will be his 15th playoff game.

He has never played the same team in the playoffs twice.

OK this is an insane stat. Lol.

Chicago, Carolina, Atlanta, Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Patriots, Arizona, Tampa, SF, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minnesota, Philly. 

Every NFC team except NY Giants and Washington 

[Irrelevant Dude]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Well Benedet kind of sucks and Jones has been pretty good for the last 5 years or whatever.

Are we forgetting how the offensive line got better when Benedet replaced Jones at LT?

[NorthsideAvenger]

When's the last time Braxton played? Week 7? Or did he played since then?

 

[Soul]

It’s freaking consequential NFL football, at Soldier Field, in mid-January.  It’s Ben Johnson’s first season as HC, and Caleb’s first season in his system.  Just trying to step back a moment and consider how well this has gone.  It’s way above expectations.  We haven’t seen a football game of this level in Chicago in forever.  This is going to be fun no matter what.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It has been pretty amazing. I try to conceptualize what Caleb means, is he Mohommad Ali? Is he Michael Jordan? Is he something all to himself and every bit as amazing? Thats a question I’m going to be asking for a while I hope 

[WrigleyField 22]

24 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

It has been pretty amazing. I try to conceptualize what Caleb means, is he Mohommad Ali? Is he Michael Jordan? Is he something all to himself and every bit as amazing? Thats a question I’m going to be asking for a while I hope 

I don't think he'll be Jordan.  If he ends up Hakeem Olajuwan we'll be building statues for him though.

[BigbadB]

9 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

When's the last time Braxton played? Week 7? Or did he played since then?

 

According to Football-Reference, Braxton logged most of the snaps in weeks 1, 2 and 3 and less than half in week 4 and hasn't seen action since.

[Brian707]

10 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

It has been pretty amazing. I try to conceptualize what Caleb means, is he Mohommad Ali? Is he Michael Jordan? Is he something all to himself and every bit as amazing? Thats a question I’m going to be asking for a while I hope 

He is the Iceman 

[Brian707]

[Banedon]

Jared Verse on how to rush Caleb Williams: Aim for his arm - NBC Sports

 

Quote

“You’ve got to keep rushing, you’ve got to keep running, and once you get your hands around him, you can’t fully grab him, aim for his arm,” Verse said. “You have to aim for his arm, try to mess his throw up a little bit. It can’t just be like getting him off the spot. Running quarterbacks, even if they’re off the spot, they’re still liable to make any type of play.”

 

[UMFan83]

Saw some interesting (but negative) data about the Rams and how they match-up against the Bears:

Bears are 31st in TD and most yards per game allowed on 20+ yard passes.  Stafford has completed the most 20+ yard passes in the league.  He also leads the league on TD and yards on 10+ yard passes.

Bears are also 31st on TD allowed and 27th in yards allowed per game on play action passes.  The Rams run play action more often than any other team.  Stafford has thrown 20 TD and 1 INT on play action passes, by far the best in the league.

The Rams are 7th in the league in EPA per rush outside the tackles, the Bears are 29th in EPA in stopping rushes outside the tackles.

The Bears are 2nd in the league in 4th quarter TDs and EPA per play in the 4th quarter, and 1st in yards per play in the 4th quarter.  The Rams are somehow tied with the Bears in all 3 stats.

On the plus side, the Rams really bad on plays when the QB scrambles, and one of the worst teams at allowing yards when they blitz.

----

Of course the Rams have seen a noticeable dip across the board the last several weeks and the conditions may make it hard for them to do what they normally do well.  Can absolutely win this game.

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Saw some interesting (but negative) data about the Rams and how they match-up against the Bears:

Bears are 31st in TD and most yards per game allowed on 20+ yard passes.  Stafford has completed the most 20+ yard passes in the league.  He also leads the league on TD and yards on 10+ yard passes.

Bears are also 31st on TD allowed and 27th in yards allowed per game on play action passes.  The Rams run play action more often than any other team.  Stafford has thrown 20 TD and 1 INT on play action passes, by far the best in the league.

The Rams are 7th in the league in EPA per rush outside the tackles, the Bears are 29th in EPA in stopping rushes outside the tackles.

The Bears are 2nd in the league in 4th quarter TDs and EPA per play in the 4th quarter, and 1st in yards per play in the 4th quarter.  The Rams are somehow tied with the Bears in all 3 stats.

On the plus side, the Rams really bad on plays when the QB scrambles, and one of the worst teams at allowing yards when they blitz.

----

Of course the Rams have seen a noticeable dip across the board the last several weeks and the conditions may make it hard for them to do what they normally do well.  Can absolutely win this game.

There’s potential for disaster. Bears defense does play better at home for what it’s worth but the offense can’t mess around in the first half against this opponent.

[Soul]

15 hours ago, bukie said:

Wild stat that may only interest me:

Sean Mcvay has made the playoffs in 7 of his 9 years with the Rams, and Sunday will be his 15th playoff game.

He has never played the same team in the playoffs twice.

😧 cray cray