Divisional Round: Bears vs Rams Sunday at 5:30 on NBC

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears are 4 point dogs at home as the last game of the weekend. The last two games this week sucked. One of the games next week will be a blowout. Might as well be the Bears winning big. 
 

The Bears have curb stomped the Rams a time or two in the past. 

[Banedon]

I'd have preferred another Saturday game to let me have Sunday to either recover from a loss or fully soak in the win, but had to be too upset about the cold night game for the Rams.

[Old Style]

20 minutes ago, Banedon said:

I'd have preferred another Saturday game to let me have Sunday to either recover from a loss or fully soak in the win, but had to be too upset about the cold night game for the Rams.

Monday is a holiday. And we ain’t horsefeathers losing. 

[BigbadB]

I penciled in this one as a Bears loss to the Rams on my playoff bracket. But I so want to be wrong and ridiculed for ever doubting Ben Johnson. Oh, and go 9ers! 

Football is so horsefeathers fun right now. I actually typed horsefeathers because I couldn't decide which curse word fit best in that sentence.

[Banedon]

41 minutes ago, Old Style said:

Monday is a holiday. And we ain’t horsefeathers losing. 

Many, like myself, do not get Monday off.

[Brian707]

Im going to the game.  It will be cold but I don't give a horsefeathers. Go Bears 

[bukie]

Bears' offensive DVOA was updated from the weekend, and they're up to 4th now, behind the Rams, Pats and 49ers.

Next 3 opponents?

[bukie]

Also, the Bears as a team are up to #10 in weighted DVOA, so every one of the 8 teams left in the playoffs are in the top 10. The two teams above the Bears that are not still playing are the Jags and Ravens (who, while going 8-9, did beat the Bears handily, and probably should have made the playoffs).

[BigSlick]

Go effing Bears

[raw]

I never thought this thread would exist

[bukie]

The last time the Bears played the Rams was week 4 last year, where they beat them 24-18 at home with Caleb Williams throwing for 157 and a TD to move the Bears to 2-2 under Matt Eberflus. The loss dropped the Rams to 1-3 (they'd fall to 1-4 before rattling off 9 wins in their next 11 games to win the NFC West).

That was before Puka Nacua was Puka Nacua, and the Rams didn't have Davante Adams, but beyond that they're largely the same team from then. The Bears have an entirely different coaching staff, offensive line, and a new skill player at each position, but their defense has regressed.

As for the weather, the temperature at game time is projected to be around 15 degrees. The Rams under McVay have played 4 games in freezing temperatures in total, going 2-2, but none of them have ever been projected as that cold. Also, Matthew Stafford, despite playing a significant portion of his career in Detroit, only has played 6 games in freezing temperatures, going 3-3 (but with 15 TD and 3 INT). Last one of those was last year's divisional round game in Philly in the snow, which they lost 28-22.

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 minutes ago, bukie said:

The last time the Bears played the Rams was week 4 last year, where they beat them 24-18 at home with Caleb Williams throwing for 157 and a TD to move the Bears to 2-2 under Matt Eberflus. The loss dropped the Rams to 1-3 (they'd fall to 1-4 before rattling off 9 wins in their next 11 games to win the NFC West).

That was before Puka Nacua was Puka Nacua, and the Rams didn't have Davante Adams, but beyond that they're largely the same team from then. The Bears have an entirely different coaching staff, offensive line, and a new skill player at each position, but their defense has regressed.

As for the weather, the temperature at game time is projected to be around 15 degrees. The Rams under McVay have played 4 games in freezing temperatures in total, going 2-2, but none of them have ever been projected as that cold. Also, Matthew Stafford, despite playing a significant portion of his career in Detroit, only has played 6 games in freezing temperatures, going 3-3 (but with 15 TD and 3 INT). Last one of those was last year's divisional round game in Philly in the snow, which they lost 28-22.

Where are all of these stats? The Stafford tidbit really surprises me. Good stuff though.

[gflore34]

14 minutes ago, bukie said:

The last time the Bears played the Rams was week 4 last year, where they beat them 24-18 at home with Caleb Williams throwing for 157 and a TD to move the Bears to 2-2 under Matt Eberflus. The loss dropped the Rams to 1-3 (they'd fall to 1-4 before rattling off 9 wins in their next 11 games to win the NFC West).

That was before Puka Nacua was Puka Nacua, and the Rams didn't have Davante Adams, but beyond that they're largely the same team from then. The Bears have an entirely different coaching staff, offensive line, and a new skill player at each position, but their defense has regressed.

As for the weather, the temperature at game time is projected to be around 15 degrees. The Rams under McVay have played 4 games in freezing temperatures in total, going 2-2, but none of them have ever been projected as that cold. Also, Matthew Stafford, despite playing a significant portion of his career in Detroit, only has played 6 games in freezing temperatures, going 3-3 (but with 15 TD and 3 INT). Last one of those was last year's divisional round game in Philly in the snow, which they lost 28-22.

It's more Nacua and the TE's that'll be the worries, Adams has been dealing with a hamstring and hasn't been as effective of late.

[bukie]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

It's more Nacua and the TE's that'll be the worries, Adams has been dealing with a hamstring and hasn't been as effective of late.

So has Kyler Gordon.

[Banedon]

EL OH EL

Rams-Bears division playoffs: Caleb Williams is not a good quarterback | Turf Show Times

[BigSlick]

27 minutes ago, Banedon said:

EL OH EL

Rams-Bears division playoffs: Caleb Williams is not a good quarterback | Turf Show Times

This reads like a lot of cope to me

[bukie]

11 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

This reads like a lot of cope to me

It reads of "Looking at stats with no context".

Even last week, Caleb threw 48 times for 361 yards and 2 TDs/2 picks. The picks? A 4th down arm punt where Burden ran the wrong route, and a floater with a hand in his face near the goal line on 4th down where if he doesn't throw it it's a turnover anyway. The 50% completion rate seems bad on its own, except that the weather was windy, Love also threw for a near 50% completion rate, and the vast majority of passes Caleb was throwing was downfield.

His "on target rate" is worst in the NFL. He also throws the ball away more than anyone in the NFL to avoid sacks and negative plays. Sometimes he gives up on plays a little early, but most of it is just throwing it to locations nobody else can catch it, which is either "throw away" or "throw it to a low percentage catch chance with a 0% INT chance". 

It's also a complex offense with a lot of movement that has to work together, and sometimes the timing is just off still. I'm not sure if that plays into why it takes the offense until the 4th quarter to really click in many games, but if the receiver is not on the right route, or the blocking isn't setting the pocket correctly, or Caleb has to scramble and improvise, things can still look a little messy. But you can see the offense being very effective in spurts, and it feels like it's right there for really clicking.

Some day soon, all facets of the offense will click and they'll run someone off the field. I'm not sure if it'll happen yet this year, but it's right there.

[Derwood]

I swear "completion rate" is the new "batting average", where dumdums put WAY too much weight into it without ANY context

[We Got The Whole 9]

IDK how you can argue that he doesn't  miss too many short and intermediate throws. Just be objective. Its totally ok to admit flaws are there. The arm talent is close to non-pareil, the processing has come a long way, he definitely throws a lot of balls away to avoid sacks. He should still be hitting a lot more passes than he has. You think Johnson is looking at 58 and saying, meh, not that bad? Theyre gonna nail down the details and next year he's going to expect him to be somewhere in the mid-60s.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

IDK how you can argue that he doesn't  miss too many short and intermediate throws. Just be objective. Its totally ok to admit flaws are there. The arm talent is close to non-pareil, the processing has come a long way, he definitely throws a lot of balls away to avoid sacks. He should still be hitting a lot more passes than he has. You think Johnson is looking at 58 and saying, meh, not that bad? Theyre gonna nail down the details and next year he's going to expect him to be somewhere in the mid-60s.

Beyond a doubt there's things to improve, Caleb himself has talked about missing some throws and improving in accuracy.  It being year one of Ben Johnson' offense for everyone is also a valid point, as you said they'll nail down the details.  Once Caleb gets to the 64-67 % range with the details of the offense nailed down, the Bears are going to be close to unstoppable.  I truly believe this may be the "worst" of Caleb and Ben, now, if they could fix the defense, just a little bit.  

Edited January 13 by gflore34

[Banedon]

This is gonna be like the Niners game isn't it?

[WrigleyField 22]

3 minutes ago, Banedon said:

This is gonna be like the Niners game isn't it?

Nah Stafford isn't built for the cold. 

 

Bears W. God willing not Cardiac Bears. 

[Banedon]

 

[Banedon]

The worst thing about Rams fans is that so many of them are Dodgers fans.  Ugh.

[bukie]

7 minutes ago, Banedon said:

The worst thing about Rams fans is that so many of them are Dodgers fans.  Ugh.

And the ones that aren't are probably holdover Cardinals fans from the St. Louis days.