Cubs Better Hope They Dodge Hoby Milner Waiver Bullet They Pulled the Trigger On

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Under Jed Hoyer, the Chicago Cubs have rarely spent significant money on relief pitching in the offseason, rather preferring to spread that money among multiple smaller contracts hoping to hit on at least one. That was their plan this offseason as well, with Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Shelby Miller all getting contracts between $2.5m and $7m while Jacob Webb and Trent Thornton got contracts at $1.5m and $1m respectively. Looking at that list, I am sure you are thinking what I am thinking: Maybe the Cubs should only give out ~$1m contracts?

Maton didn’t pitch well and is done for the year, as is Harvey who barely pitched at all. Thielbar has struggled all year and has been dreadful in August. Shelby Miller was always expected to miss this season, the first of a two-year contract, but he may actually play a role down the stretch. Which leads us to the last mid-sized contract they gave out: Hoby Milner. The veteran southpaw pitched okay for the first couple months of the season, but most importantly he was available for the Cubs during their early season injury woes. Then, he went through them himself.

Milner was nearly back from an injury that sidelined him for a couple of months when the Cubs put him on waivers. It was a very curious decision, so let’s investigate what it may mean.

Milner has made 38 appearances this season for the Cubs, not enough to qualify for some leaderboards, but enough to see some trends. For the first time since 2022, Milner is throwing his sinker more than his sweeper, but both pitches have been at least average. Surprisingly, he has not increased his four-seam usage with a team that throws a ton of four seamers; he still throws his changeup more frequently. Either way, flipping his sinker/sweeper usage shows he bought into what the Cubs asked him to do.

While Milner wasn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination, he sported a 3.53 ERA and issued just nine walks in 35.2 innings. He did outperform his FIP and saw a pretty drastic drop of 8-10 percentage points in K% and groundball rate. If he qualified, he would be near the very bottom of the league in strikeout rate, fastball velocity, expected batting average, and expected ERA. Not great! Yet even with those declines, there is still a real argument for the Cubs needing him as we round the final turn into September.

The pitching lab's ability to get the most out of pitchers that have been discarded by other teams has been a key to their 2026 performance. The injuries stacked up early and often, yet the Cubs were able to lean on guys like Jacob Webb, Trent Thornton, Ryan Rolison, and Gavin Hollowell. Now with the additions of Ryan Zeferjahn and Aaron Civale and the recent return of Daniel Palencia, the Cubs may feel like they have cultivated some depth in the bullpen, regardless of how they have performed recently. With the way the injury bug has hit the roster all year long, it seems like a risky move to potentially jettison a usable veteran arm.

While the Cubs do have many bullpen options, only Ryan Rolison and Caleb Thielbar throw from the left side. On the playoff roster, that list probably will also include David Peterson. Rolison certainly has earned a spot, but there is a strong argument to be made that maybe Caleb Thielbar should not be on the playoff roster, especially if his struggles continue into September. Even though Thielbar has a higher strikeout rate than Milner, he is near the bottom of the league in barrel%. When he doesn’t miss bats, he doesn’t miss barrels. Milner also gives opponents a very different look than the others. While Rolison (48°) and Thielbar (55°) are very over the top with their deliveries, Milner is a true sidearmer at -5°. In a National League where the Dodgers, Braves, and Brewers all have big left-handed bats, I would think the Cubs would want that extra southpaw option and different look.

Putting Milner on waivers doesn’t mean he won’t play a role down the stretch. In fact, the very team the Cubs are playing this weekend (the Reds) already have two homers from players who were placed on waivers recently (Eugenio Suarez and TJ Friedl). If no team claims him, he will remain a part of the bullpen, unless he's designated him for assignment.

The most likely answer is the Cubs don’t feel they need Milner and are attempting to do some cost saving. They might actually benefit if no team claims him and he remains on the roster. They don’t have an arm angle on the team like his, The way the bullpen is performing right now, they could use every arm they can get.

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Jeremy is from the NW Suburbs of Chicago and is a lifelong Cubs fan. He has worked in professional baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners as well as MLB Office of the Commissioner in a variety of roles including coaching and scouting. More recently, Jeremy spent 6 years at Driveline Baseball primarily working on developing and coaching high school and youth athletes.