Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[CubinNY]

They have a track record of improving pitcher's performance when they come to Chicago. I expect that will be the case with Cabrera. I too thought Boyd's arm would fall off at some point, it never did. Could be randomness, could be a pattern. 

I expect the staff to be very good this year, barring injury, but not mystery injury which I'm hoping for. 

Edited February 3 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

Typo obviously, he means Pirates pitchers, but this is a fun idea.  Look out if the Pirates can get their offense to even average before their pitching starts to break down.

[Geographyhater8888]

24 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Best case? This is a guy who can run his changeup to 94mph. Not his fastball, his *changeup*. The best case scenario here is "sky is the limit". That will require many things coming together; the 2025 control, pitch mix tweaks and health, but if it does, that's your perfect storm. 

Likely it will be below that. I think a realistic hope is 130-140 IP where he looks like a top-25 (or so) SP in that sample. 

I know. It can reach 97 I think. I thought stat cast made an error when they called his 97 mph pitch a change up.

[Bull]

3 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Hard to count on him pitching for 150+, but then again - last year I would have bet the Farm that Boyd would not have pitched over 100 innings. 

This year that would be a low-stakes bet. 

[Bertz]

I think the Boyd thing is instructive.  He averaged about 50 MLB innings per year from '21-'24, but give him a new UCL and suddenly he's right as rain.  Cade Horton threw almost as many innings last year (147) as he had in his college career and first two minor league seasons combined (176).

On the flip side Zack Wheeler (#3) and Corbin Burnes (#4) were top 5 in innings pitched from '21-'24, and both went under the knife.  Aaron Nola was #1 and missed three months with a leg injury.

I don't want to go quite as far as to say we have no insight into injury and risk, but I think it's clear that everyone is high and it's just a matter of degree.  Like let's say the baseline level for "this guy is gonna go under the knife this year" is 15%.  I'd be surprised if a risky guy like Cabrera is north of 20% and I'd be shocked if a 'safe' guy like Logan Webb is south of 10%.

[Neuby]

https://x.com/becerra_bsbl/status/2018384792182505832?s=20

 

Former Hawkins guy, velocity is back up. Would be an interesting depth candidate in Iowa.

[Bertz]

👀

 

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, Neuby said:

https://x.com/becerra_bsbl/status/2018384792182505832?s=20

 

Former Hawkins guy, velocity is back up. Would be an interesting depth candidate in Iowa.

Also accused of domestic abuse. Hard pass. We have better depth options anyway.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

👀

 

"three year deal with the ability to get out of it in a year or two" and "is there another SP you may have to move" feel like two important lines.

[Bertz]

28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

"three year deal with the ability to get out of it in a year or two" and "is there another SP you may have to move" feel like two important lines.

I know you can never have too much pitching but Gallen/Taillon/Rea all on the roster does feel suboptimal.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I know you can never have too much pitching but Gallen/Taillon/Rea all on the roster does feel suboptimal.

I wonder if they're more worried about Steele than we think. Because all three of those guys you mentioned aren't gonna crack the 5-man with Steele back.

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I know you can never have too much pitching but Gallen/Taillon/Rea all on the roster does feel suboptimal.

This screams "Taillon trade". Someone is going to want him around his contract value. The Cubs won't get much back, but Gallen for Taillon feels like a solid upgrade, so that's my hope. 

[Bull]

  9 hours ago,  CubUgly said:

Hard to count on him pitching for 150+, but then again - last year I would have bet the Farm that Boyd would not have pitched over 100 innings. 

6 hours ago, Bull said:

This year that would be a low-stakes bet. 

 

'cuz there's no farm left....hey-o

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

This screams "Taillon trade". Someone is going to want him around his contract value. The Cubs won't get much back, but Gallen for Taillon feels like a solid upgrade, so that's my hope. 

Would the Cubs be able to get a utility bat on the last year of his contract for Taillon? Let’s say McNeil. A’s need pitching. Would they do a one for one? Then the Cubs could either trade Shaw or let Ballesteros catch in Iowa. Gallen and McNeil instead of Taillon and Shaw (plus you get something for Shaw in a trade) is a solid upgrade. Or McNeil instead of Ballesteros, while the bat might be an even swap, they allow Mo to work on catching in the minors. Doesn’t have to be McNeil either. Just a thought of a team who wants pitching and can maybe move a bat. Orioles are another option. But they don’t look to have anyone who fits the bat part of the equation. 

[Jason Ross]

59 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Would the Cubs be able to get a utility bat on the last year of his contract for Taillon? Let’s say McNeil. A’s need pitching. Would they do a one for one? Then the Cubs could either trade Shaw or let Ballesteros catch in Iowa. Gallen and McNeil instead of Taillon and Shaw (plus you get something for Shaw in a trade) is a solid upgrade. Or McNeil instead of Ballesteros, while the bat might be an even swap, they allow Mo to work on catching in the minors. Doesn’t have to be McNeil either. Just a thought of a team who wants pitching and can maybe move a bat. Orioles are another option. But they don’t look to have anyone who fits the bat part of the equation. 

I don't think the Cubs are taking on a lot of money. I'd expect it to be closer to the Bellinger trade. So maybe a Poteet type deal. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think the Cubs are taking on a lot of money. I'd expect it to be closer to the Bellinger trade. So maybe a Poteet type deal. 

Make sense. Thought with the LT line not being an issue they could add some money and actually get someone who helps them when trading Tailon. But maybe not🤷. 

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

"three year deal with the ability to get out of it in a year or two" and "is there another SP you may have to move" feel like two important lines.

I can see two possible scenarios they can go with outside of the obvious trading a SP...

1. They can start the season with Boyd or Taillon on the IL

2. They can start Horton in Iowa to limit his innings early on 

 

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I can see two possible scenarios they can go with outside of the obvious trading a SP...

1. They can start the season with Boyd or Taillon on the IL

2. They can start Horton in Iowa to limit his innings early on 

 

They can't start the year with one of those pitchers on the IL if they aren't hurt. 

[mk49]

I don't want to trade Jamo in order to sign Gallen.  If Gallen stays at least 2 seasons, I'd be OK with that.  If the Cubs gives Gallen opt out after the 1st season, I'd rather keep Jamo.  That said, I wouldn't  complain, if the Cubs sign Gallen, and don't trade Jamo.  

Instead of singing Gallen, the Cubs should have singed Suarez for DH.  I didn't really want him, but for 1yr, $15m, why not?  

 

Edited February 4 by mk49

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I don't want to trade Jamo in order to sign Gallen.  If Gallen stays at least 2 seasons, I'd be OK with that.  If the Cubs gives Gallen opt out after the 1st season, I'd rather keep Jamo.  That said, I wouldn't  complain, if the Cubs sign Gallen, and don't trade Jamo.  

Instead of singing Gallen, the Cubs should have singed Suarez for DH.  I didn't really want him, but for 1yr, $15m, why not?  

 

My concern is the opposite when it comes to Gallen. If you sign him to a 3/60 deal with opt outs and then salary dump Taillon, the upside scenario is he pitches well enough to earn himself a bigger contract next year and you've gotten what is likely a superior pitcher in 2026 for an extra $4m in salary (less whatever we pick up in a Taillon salary dump). 

The downside of Gallen is he keeps trending in the wrong direction or blows his elbow out and you're stuck paying $20m a year for 2027 and 2028 when we need to start worry about extensions guys currently under control. 

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, mk49 said:

I don't want to trade Jamo in order to sign Gallen.  If Gallen stays at least 2 seasons, I'd be OK with that.  If the Cubs gives Gallen opt out after the 1st season, I'd rather keep Jamo.  That said, I wouldn't  complain, if the Cubs sign Gallen, and don't trade Jamo.  

Instead of singing Gallen, the Cubs should have singed Suarez for DH.  I didn't really want him, but for 1yr, $15m, why not?  

 

Id far rather have Gallen through 2027. He helps to move the roster cliff a bit; life becomes easier when you need to replace players over a two year span than a one year one. Secondly, it depends on what you can do to fix Gallen. Lance Brodzowski did another great video, this time talking about pitchers who were bad but could be good. His most confidence was placed in a team fixing Gallen. Maybe he's not the top-10 SP in baseball like he was from 2022 through 2023, but instead as a top-30 type. There's a pretty clear path for a good baseball organization to fix him. Not a guarantee but a path.

If the Cubs like their setup, they're in a perfect place to take that gamble. They still have Cabrera, Horton, Imanaga, Boyd, and Steele around Gallen meaning his fix isn't as necessary. 

Secondly, while Taillon was fine last year, he wasn't a great pitcher. He didn't hit 130 IP, was only worth 1.1 fWAR in those innings and his K% sits well below 20%. He's okay. I think a team will want him at around 1 year and his AAV. But he's very upgradeable and the Cubs upgrading there is significant. 

While I understand Suarez had a great line last year, he's at an age where as a hitter he can fall off pretty quickly (even in a year). And a good reminder that Suarez hasn't been the model of year to year consistency, posting an 85, a 132, a 105, a 115 and a 125 wRC+ over the last 5. I wouldn't be shocked to see him back down in the 110-115 wRC+ range at which you're getting a pretty mediocre DH. 

I wouldn't necessarily do this unless I could keep Gallen for 2 of those years; I think an opt out after 2027 is the best case. If it's just a 2026 thing I have less interest when you add in the QO. Levine's quote suggest 2027 is on the table. 

[Stratos]

I'd be happy if Cabrera has the same results he had last year.

If he can just stay healthy and throw more IP that would be an improvement.  His fastballs have been lit up the last 2 years so maybe there's something they could tweak there.  I imagine it would help his BB/9 if he can actually trust his fb to get ahead on counts instead of relying so much on the change-up, unless he feels he can throw consistent strikes with it.  Seemed to do fine last year.

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I'd be happy if Cabrera has the same results he had last year.

If he can just stay healthy and throw more IP that would be an improvement.  His fastballs have been lit up the last 2 years so maybe there's something they could tweak there.  I imagine it would help his BB/9 if he can actually trust his fb to get ahead on counts instead of relying so much on the change-up, unless he feels he can throw consistent strikes with it.  Seemed to do fine last year.

He lowered his 4 seam use last year and increased his strike throwing. His new arm angle seems to have fixed that on his own. 

I do expect that Cubs will tweak the mix, and I wonder if a cutter will be added and his mix will look more like Cade Horton; cutter, changeup, 4 seam to lefties, sinker, slider changeup to RHH.

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Id far rather have Gallen through 2027. He helps to move the roster cliff a bit; life becomes easier when you need to replace players over a two year span than a one year one. Secondly, it depends on what you can do to fix Gallen. Lance Brodzowski did another great video, this time talking about pitchers who were bad but could be good. His most confidence was placed in a team fixing Gallen. Maybe he's not the top-10 SP in baseball like he was from 2022 through 2023, but instead as a top-30 type. There's a pretty clear path for a good baseball organization to fix him. Not a guarantee but a path.

If the Cubs like their setup, they're in a perfect place to take that gamble. They still have Cabrera, Horton, Imanaga, Boyd, and Steele around Gallen meaning his fix isn't as necessary. 

Secondly, while Taillon was fine last year, he wasn't a great pitcher. He didn't hit 130 IP, was only worth 1.1 fWAR in those innings and his K% sits well below 20%. He's okay. I think a team will want him at around 1 year and his AAV. But he's very upgradeable and the Cubs upgrading there is significant. 

While I understand Suarez had a great line last year, he's at an age where as a hitter he can fall off pretty quickly (even in a year). And a good reminder that Suarez hasn't been the model of year to year consistency, posting an 85, a 132, a 105, a 115 and a 125 wRC+ over the last 5. I wouldn't be shocked to see him back down in the 110-115 wRC+ range at which you're getting a pretty mediocre DH. 

I wouldn't necessarily do this unless I could keep Gallen for 2 of those years; I think an opt out after 2027 is the best case. If it's just a 2026 thing I have less interest when you add in the QO. Levine's quote suggest 2027 is on the table. 

Regarding Gallen, that is where I am at. Has to be 2 years before he can opt out. I don’t see them losing a pick to get him for 1 year only. Maybe 2/$40 with a third year player option at another $20M with a $4M opt out. Something like that. That’s $44M guaranteed. Of course, this is provided the Cubs feel they can fix him 

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

They can't start the year with one of those pitchers on the IL if they aren't hurt. 

Didn't the Dodgers have a wealth of starting pitchers last year and make it work?  In fact they ended up using starters in the post-season because their top two bullpen gets in the off-season were abject failures and unusable in leverage in the post season. 

Someone could get hurt in spring training or two games in.  You just never know, it's just as good a chance that happens as not.