Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Geographyhater8888]

Another question is which PCA will show up and whether or not his second half skid was simple variance or a worrying trend. If he’s a league average hitter he’ll likely a post somewhere around 4.5 fWAR.

Edited February 6 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

7 hours ago, mk49 said:

There's no doubt Mo can hit.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he does .285 BA, 18 HRs, 125ish WRC+ this year.  

 

This guy has a career 108 wRC with 1.9 fWAR total. Probably not fair to pick one (bad) comp, but....pretty similar profiles. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Another question is which PCA will show up and whether or not his second half skid was simple variance or a worrying trend. If he’s a league average hitter he’ll likely a post somewhere around 4.5 fWAR.

His second half was more of a mechanical issue than anything else. He got too out front of the baseball, causing him either to crush the ball a bit foul or jam himself when he let the ball travel further. His point of contact got too far in front of the plate and his front foot a little long. 

With bat tracking data we can begin to determine issues. I wouldn't chalk it up to either variance or a concerning trend; players get out of mechanical sync from time to time. PCA has always been willing to work with his mechanics so I'm not concerned from that aspect. It wasn't just bad luck his mechanics got off, but it's not really a trend we should super worry about as like, the new norm. Very fixable and he's always worked on tweaking that aspect of his game.

If there was a positive, his strikeout rate dipped second half. 

Instead I think we have to accept PCA is likely a streaky hitter who works on vibes and emotions and that's just kind of who he is. He will have times where he can simply carry a team and others where he's going to get off and struggle for a long stretch. 

[Bertz]

Generally 1H/2H splits are fairly meaningless moving forward.  On the flip side PCA's at an experience level where you're still slightly worried about the floor dropping out.  My POV tends to be about the 1000 PA mark is when you're in the clear, and PCA's prolonged second half funk started a little prior to that.

I think the projections for him look about right, but there's clearly more (offensive) downside risk there than any of our other really good players.

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

His second half was more of a mechanical issue than anything else. He got too out front of the baseball, causing him either to crush the ball a bit foul or jam himself when he let the ball travel further. His point of contact got too far in front of the plate and his front foot a little long. 

With bat tracking data we can begin to determine issues. I wouldn't chalk it up to either variance or a concerning trend; players get out of mechanical sync from time to time. PCA has always been willing to work with his mechanics so I'm not concerned from that aspect. It wasn't just bad luck his mechanics got off, but it's not really a trend we should super worry about as like, the new norm. Very fixable and he's always worked on tweaking that aspect of his game.

If there was a positive, his strikeout rate dipped second half. 

Instead I think we have to accept PCA is likely a streaky hitter who works on vibes and emotions and that's just kind of who he is. He will have times where he can simply carry a team and others where he's going to get off and struggle for a long stretch. 

We’d all accept if 2025 PCA as a streaky 109 wRC+ hitter with 30 home run pop was an accurate representation of what he’ll be as a hitter in the future, regardless of pre and post ASB splits. He’s a mechanical tweak away from being better than an almost 2 standard deviations worse than average hitter. He’s much better than that. He’s such a wild card though so there’s some uncertainty. He was Rex Grossman like with more 100 passer rating games. 
 

 

Edited February 6 by Geographyhater8888

[Outshined_One]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This guy has a career 108 wRC with 1.9 fWAR total. Probably not fair to pick one (bad) comp, but....pretty similar profiles. 

I always liked Dan Vogelbach and was disappointed his game didn't translate to the majors.

The similarities are there (bad body, left-handed hitter, bat-first prospect), but I feel like Mo's advantage is he'll be the same age in the majors in 2026 (22) as Vogelbach was when he started AA.  I also tend to favor Mo's more contact-oriented approach to Vogelbach's more passive approach, so hopefully that serves Mo better in his career.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I always liked Dan Vogelbach and was disappointed his game didn't translate to the majors.

The similarities are there (bad body, left-handed hitter, bat-first prospect), but I feel like Mo's advantage is he'll be the same age in the majors in 2026 (22) as Vogelbach was when he started AA.  I also tend to favor Mo's more contact-oriented approach to Vogelbach's more passive approach, so hopefully that serves Mo better in his career.

I'm not totally sold on the age thing just because I don't really know what the next step of Mo's offensive profile looks like. Nobody really bats .300 anymore (and he's not going to steal a bunch of infield hits). 

Going .270/.330/.440 is definitely more valuable than than .220/.340/.410 or whatever.  But ultimately, if you rule out playing defense and hitting for power, there's not a lot of paths to real success. 

[Outshined_One]

28 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not totally sold on the age thing just because I don't really know what the next step of Mo's offensive profile looks like. Nobody really bats .300 anymore (and he's not going to steal a bunch of infield hits). 

His next step is frankly what killed Vogelbach: demonstrate the ability to handle major league pitching (both in terms of velocity and breaking stuff).  Vogelbach mashed changeups and sinkers, but he was meh against fastballs while getting eaten alive by sliders (and curves, to a lesser extent):

It's the reason why I'm hoping Mo gets 500+ PAs in the majors this season; his bat won't benefit from seeing extended time in AAA.

[Bertz]

I think it's fair to worry that Mo becomes a tweener.  But at the same time every prospect's floor is either washout or tweener.  

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

His next step is frankly what killed Vogelbach: demonstrate the ability to handle major league pitching (both in terms of velocity and breaking stuff).  Vogelbach mashed changeups and sinkers, but he was meh against fastballs while getting eaten alive by sliders (and curves, to a lesser extent):

It's the reason why I'm hoping Mo gets 500+ PAs in the majors this season; his bat won't benefit from seeing extended time in AAA.

You're probably right, but on the Vogelbach development path you'd be skipping the part where he mastered AAA. Vogelback putting up a 148 wRC and a .417 OBP is a step above Mo's 121/.385.

[CubinNY]

Mo's biggest concern is power. He's big, but not big. I honestly see him as a poor man's Tony Gwynn. It would be nice if they could get him a nutritionist and chef and see if they could take 30-40 pounds off.

[Post Count Padder]

More depth:

Quote

The Cubs have added another pair of veterans on minor league deals, agreeing to terms with righty Vince Velasquez and infielder Owen Miller, according to the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. They’ll likely be in camp as non-roster players.

Miller played for the Brewers for a couple years. Has a lot of experience at 2B and 3B but is not great. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Mo's biggest concern is power. He's big, but not big. I honestly see him as a poor man's Tony Gwynn. It would be nice if they could get him a nutritionist and chef and see if they could take 30-40 pounds off.

He's a poor man's Tony Gwynn in the sense that like, Scott Kingery is a poor man's Chase Utley. Gwynn had a 4.2% career K rate and 320 career steals. But yes, they're both thick, so sure. 

[muntjack]

I must just possess an outlier opinion on this kid's hitting ability.  He's obviously not Tony Gwynn.  I dont think Pablo Sandoval is a crazy dream, however.   

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Pablo is a very fair comp, in terms of offensive ability and the fear of him eating himself out of the league.

Any concerns about his power potential I had were alleviated by this:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=84867dc2-a4e9-332e-a7b7-2692cb56b56b

[chopsx9]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

Generally 1H/2H splits are fairly meaningless moving forward.  

It was his first full year though - I think the concern is that he was "figured" out and the league adjusted and he couldn't adjust back.  So it's not so much a split but his new level.  To be clear - that's the fear, it doesn't need to be the reality but many of us are pessimistic by nature.

I feel he got pull happy in the second half, too focused on hitting HRs and was constantly jumping out in front.  He needs to focus (I think) of LF Gap to center and lay off the high inside pitches.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

Generally 1H/2H splits are fairly meaningless moving forward.

Yeah exactly, I'm not really worried about it.

He's like a fish that can't help taking a bite at something shiny, but he is very talented and is left-handed so I think he'll probably be ok.  VS LHP he might be hopeless.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not totally sold on the age thing just because I don't really know what the next step of Mo's offensive profile looks like. Nobody really bats .300 anymore (and he's not going to steal a bunch of infield hits). 

Going .270/.330/.440 is definitely more valuable than than .220/.340/.410 or whatever.  But ultimately, if you rule out playing defense and hitting for power, there's not a lot of paths to real success. 

Ultimately, Mo only has 1 tool that's above-average.   It's a good tool, and probably the one you'd most want a player to have, but I still agree his paths to success are obviously limited.  Average power, can't run, probably moves and throws below-average behind the plate.

He'd better work really hard to become a good framer if he wants to stick at catcher.  Kirk did it.  Mo could spend 3 more full seasons in iowa catching and improve but it's still hard to see him moving or throwing at an average MLB ability.  Some people are just bootyliscious.

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, chopsx9 said:

It was his first full year though - I think the concern is that he was "figured" out and the league adjusted and he couldn't adjust back.  So it's not so much a split but his new level.  To be clear - that's the fear, it doesn't need to be the reality but many of us are pessimistic by nature.

I feel he got pull happy in the second half, too focused on hitting HRs and was constantly jumping out in front.  He needs to focus (I think) of LF Gap to center and lay off the high inside pitches.

If his free swinging approach is part of his game then he can be successful like Javy was. But we still don’t have a big enough sample size to what his true baseline as a hitter is and the degree of regression we can expect. Is he a 100-110 RC+ guy? 105-95? 100-90? Better or worse?

 

2/3rds of the lineup we know what we’re getting so the offenses ceiling hinges on PCAs ability to bounce back and unknowns like Bellestaros and Busch’s adeptness at hitting lefties to a lesser degree.

Edited February 7 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If his free swinging approach is part of his game then he can be successful like Javy was. But we still don’t have a big enough sample size to what his true baseline as a hitter is and the degree of regression we can expect. Is he a 100-110 RC+ guy? 105-95? 100-90? Better or worse?

 

2/3rds of the lineup we know what we’re getting so the offenses ceiling hinges on PCAs ability to bounce back and unknowns like Bellestaros and Busch’s adeptness at hitting lefties to a lesser degree.

I am not that worried about PCA, to tell the truth. His OPS+ was 118 last year with a bad second half. If you also add the last half of ‘24 he is basically a guy who would be right around that 118 mark. I realize picking a arbitrary starting point is frowned on here, but I am using the last half of ‘24 because prior to that I am giving him time to get his footing in MLB. I can definitely see a guy who is between 115 and 125 annually. Sure, I would like it being more consistent, but that might not be how it does. If the end result turns into .250/.300/.460 and he hits over 20 doubles, steals over 30 bases, and hit 20+ homers a year along with his great defense  he will be a 4+ WAR guy yearly. 

[Geographyhater8888]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I am not that worried about PCA, to tell the truth. His OPS+ was 118 last year with a bad second half. If you also add the last half of ‘24 he is basically a guy who would be right around that 118 mark. I realize picking a arbitrary starting point is frowned on here, but I am using the last half of ‘24 because prior to that I am giving him time to get his footing in MLB. I can definitely see a guy who is between 115 and 125 annually. Sure, I would like it being more consistent, but that might not be how it does. If the end result turns into .250/.300/.460 and he hits over 20 doubles, steals over 30 bases, and hit 20+ homers a year along with his great defense  he will be a 4+ WAR guy yearly. 

It’s not something that should keep anyone awake at night but the only question marks are on the fringes like PCA’s low floor as a hitter and Bellestaros’s ability to be a quality bat at DH. 

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s not something that should keep anyone awake at night but the only question marks are on the fringes like PCA’s low floor as a hitter and Bellestaros’s ability to be a quality bat at DH. 

Very true. 

[Neuby]

Bruce Levine mentioned today trading a guy like Tallion for a closer or RF if they land Gallen. He didn't mention any names. Hottovy was on later in the show and they talked at length about six man rotations. Hottovy is fan of them when you can use them but burns bullpens and you need optional guys.

[Bertz]

47 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Bruce Levine mentioned today trading a guy like Tallion for a closer or RF if they land Gallen. He didn't mention any names. Hottovy was on later in the show and they talked at length about six man rotations. Hottovy is fan of them when you can use them but burns bullpens and you need optional guys.

Levine's been hit or miss the last few years but has absolutely nailed a few things.  Luzardo being the most notable.

So it's so interesting to me both how confident Levine is on the Gallen happening, and also that he's pretty sure Taillon gets shipped out as a corresponding move.

[Dfan25]

Seems like the Red Sox are talking Duran with the Astros for Paredes but , the Astros don’t want to take any salary back in a Paredes trade . Interesting , they are also talking with the Pirates with Joey Bart involved .

 

A 3 team trade is also a possibility , seems like . With that in mind I wonder if there is a way for the Cubs to get involved there ?  Cubs get Duran , Red Sox get Paredes and the Astros get a pair of Cubs players .?

I wonder if the Astros would be willing to give Alcantara a chance in LF ? If they are looking for a catcher , Amaya involved maybe ?

 

Duran’s salary is 7.7 for this season , so if the Cubs were to get him they would still be way under the 2nd tier of the LT.