Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Didn't the Dodgers have a wealth of starting pitchers last year and make it work?  In fact they ended up using starters in the post-season because their top two bullpen gets in the off-season were abject failures and unusable in leverage in the post season. 

Someone could get hurt in spring training or two games in.  You just never know, it's just as good a chance that happens as not. 

Yeah I'm not worried. The Cubs will be fine and will have a plan. They have enough arms with injury histories that they will need the depth at some point. 

My point with that previous post was to dispell this idea that the Cubs are going to place a healthy pitcher on the IL with some sort of agreement on a phantom injury. These things are fantasy. 

Boyd or someone may start on the IL, but as of today everyone appears healthy. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Didn't the Dodgers have a wealth of starting pitchers last year and make it work?  In fact they ended up using starters in the post-season because their top two bullpen gets in the off-season were abject failures and unusable in leverage in the post season. 

Someone could get hurt in spring training or two games in.  You just never know, it's just as good a chance that happens as not. 

Sure, it can happen. But Jason’s point is you can’t start Boyd or Tailon on the IL if they aren’t hurt. Dodgers had a lot of injuries with pitchers. They basically sign guys knowing they can’t hold up all season. Sure they manipulate the system somewhat, that doesn’t mean you can just randomly IL someone. Both Boyd and Tailon are on their walk year. I doubt they will be okay with a phantom IL stint. They are going to want to be healthy all year so they make more moving forward. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Unlikely but If Valdez is paying an a$$ hole tax by the market then signing a legitimate ceiling raiser at a discount would be amazing. Catcher bean balling or not he’s a World Series champion and has a ton of postseason success.

I won’t complain if they sign Gallen but he’s redundant in a rotation with Taillon, Shota and Boyd. His value would be length of years and varying  upside over Taillon. 

Edited February 4 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Unlikely but If Valdez is paying an a$$ hole tax then signing a legitimate ceiling raiser at a discount would be amazing. Catcher bean balling or not he’s a World Series champion and has a ton of postseason success.

And an era over 5 the last half of last year. Not saying he is done. But I do think that last half has some teams concerned, along with him being an aSS hole. I doubt he gets to a level the Cubs would be willing to pay him. 

[Geographyhater8888]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And an era over 5 the last half of last year. Not saying he is done. But I do think that last half has some teams concerned, along with him being an aSS hole. I doubt he gets to a level the Cubs would be willing to pay him. 

He finished the season right around his career norms in FIP, xFIP, fWAR and innings pitched. Unless there’s an injury he was the same guy he’s been for the last 4 seasons.

Bergmans bad second half didn’t deter Jed.

Edited February 4 by Geographyhater8888

[Old Style]

12 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

They can't start the year with one of those pitchers on the IL if they aren't hurt. 

Anyone have Jeff Gillooly’s number?

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He finished the season right around his career norms in FIP, xFIP, fWAR and innings pitched. Unless there’s an injury he was the same guy he’s been for the last 4 seasons.

Bergmans bad second half didn’t deter Jed.

Hitters slump virtually every year. Good for a bit, great for a bit and then not so good. That is kind of normal. Plus a lot of thjngs go into a supposed slump. Was he hitting the ball just as hard during the slump? Was he hitting in bad luck? Etc….
Pitchers, on the other hand, don’t normally have a 10 game stretch that Valdez had without something being off. His last 10 starts his WHIP was over 1.50. That is bad and not normal. Sure, there are pitching slumps too, but not as easily explained as hitting. 
Tjat said, Valdez is most likely going to be very good. I was just pointing out something that “could be” a concern if GM’s. That added to them his actions could lead to a slower market. But it won’t be low enough for thr Xubs to get involved, IMO. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hitters slump virtually every year. Good for a bit, great for a bit and then not so good. That is kind of normal. Plus a lot of thjngs go into a supposed slump. Was he hitting the ball just as hard during the slump? Was he hitting in bad luck? Etc….
Pitchers, on the other hand, don’t normally have a 10 game stretch that Valdez had without something being off. His last 10 starts his WHIP was over 1.50. That is bad and not normal. Sure, there are pitching slumps too, but not as easily explained as hitting. 
Tjat said, Valdez is most likely going to be very good. I was just pointing out something that “could be” a concern if GM’s. That added to them his actions could lead to a slower market. But it won’t be low enough for thr Xubs to get involved, IMO. 

His hard hit rate and velocity was Almost identical in the first and second half. Who knows. But I’m leaning more towards his conduct issues being the reason he’s unsigned. 

[Neuby]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah I'm not worried. The Cubs will be fine and will have a plan. They have enough arms with injury histories that they will need the depth at some point. 

My point with that previous post was to dispell this idea that the Cubs are going to place a healthy pitcher on the IL with some sort of agreement on a phantom injury. These things are fantasy. 

Boyd or someone may start on the IL, but as of today everyone appears healthy. 

Not a fantasy. Arm fatigue , shoulder soreness and slow playing players rehabs are being used all the time to manipulate roster rules by teams to varying degrees and success. It's the game within the game.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Not a fantasy. Arm fatigue , shoulder soreness and slow playing players rehabs are being used all the time to manipulate roster rules by teams to varying degrees and success. It's the game within the game.

Arm fatigue is a real injury. Rehabbing is a real injury. 

"Put Matthew Boyd on the IL to start the season because we have too many SP's" or "Put Tyler Chatwood into Iowa because his control sucks with a fake injury" is fantasy. Every year we see fantasy scenarios concocted up on places like here, X/Twitter, reddit creating these situations where these players are going to go take a timeout for the sake of the Cubs.

Boyd and Taillon are not going to make up fake injuries for the sake of the Cubs as they head into free agency. They're not going to just accept "arm fatigue" if they don't actually have arm fatigue. 

[Neuby]

Yes Arm fatigue is real thing and it along with other injuries are being used as load management, Players/teams BOTH can benefit. It's one of the talking points for the next CBA. MLB changing how teams are allowed to use the DL and roster sizes are a reflection of this.

[Rex Buckingham]

the MLBPA will not abide teams making up injuries, and if a team gets a rep for pushing guys to the IL with phantom injuries, players will not want to sign there

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Yes Arm fatigue is real thing and it along with other injuries are being used as load management, Players/teams BOTH can benefit. It's one of the talking points for the next CBA. MLB changing how teams are allowed to use the DL and roster sizes are a reflection of this.

How would Matthew Boyd or Jameson Taillon benefit from sitting on the IL for the first portion of the season with a phantom arm fatigue injury? Do you think that will make them more attractive in FA to a new team next year? They can't just tell a team "oh yeah totally fake injury!" to a new team and be accused of collusion. A team is going to hold this against two pitchers who have injury histories already. 

Do you think them not pitching in games (if they have arm fatigue they won't be allowed to pitch in Iowa rehabbing in games, they would have to hang out in Arizona throwing, at best, simulated games) will help the Cubs? What if the phantom injury gets found out? Then what for the Cubs? All of that for one month of resting a guy?

This horsefeathers is fantasy land cooked up by people on reddit and social media. Stop falling for this stuff. This isn't how the Cubs are going to operate or these players will operate. They're not going to engage in collusion like this.

If they're healthy they will remain on the 26 man roster. They will not start the year off with a fake injury.

[Jason Ross]

TIFWIW; Tyler Zombro has recently followed both Zac Gallen and Connelly Early on socials. 

Tracking who the Cubs scouts follow on socials is a way we can get a glimpse into mid to late round picks the Cubs are interested in. It may have use case here. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

TIFWIW; Tyler Zombro has recently followed both Zac Gallen and Connelly Early on socials. 

Tracking who the Cubs scouts follow on socials is a way we can get a glimpse into mid to late round picks the Cubs are interested in. It may have use case here. 

Kind of interesting. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Kind of interesting. 

Yep. I keep in touch with Yagyu from PSD. He runs SAVERMETRICS the X account that nails all of the amateur signings. He's great in keeping on socials. 

His tracking of follows helps give me an idea who the Cubs are interested in. They tend to draft players they follow. Example: Eli Lovich was a tip off I got pre-draft a few years ago. That doesn't mean every follow is a draft pick, but there's a connection. 

So while it doesn't mean they will get both, it is worth a note. 

[Tryptamine]

16 hours ago, mk49 said:

I don't want to trade Jamo in order to sign Gallen.  If Gallen stays at least 2 seasons, I'd be OK with that.  If the Cubs gives Gallen opt out after the 1st season, I'd rather keep Jamo.  That said, I wouldn't  complain, if the Cubs sign Gallen, and don't trade Jamo.  

Instead of singing Gallen, the Cubs should have singed Suarez for DH.  I didn't really want him, but for 1yr, $15m, why not?  

 

Why spend 15M when you have a guy in Ballesteros who is likely to give you similar production for almost no cost? The last 3 years Suarez has put up 105, 115 and 125 wRC+. Ballesteros put up a 143 last year and while that's not realistic to expect, I don't see any reason he can't put up a 110-120.

[chibears55]

17 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

They can't start the year with one of those pitchers on the IL if they aren't hurt. 

Mysterious injuries happen all the time

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

TIFWIW; Tyler Zombro has recently followed both Zac Gallen and Connelly Early on socials. 

Tracking who the Cubs scouts follow on socials is a way we can get a glimpse into mid to late round picks the Cubs are interested in. It may have use case here. 

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Why spend 15M when you have a guy in Ballesteros who is likely to give you similar production for almost no cost? The last 3 years Suarez has put up 105, 115 and 125 wRC+. Ballesteros put up a 143 last year and while that's not realistic to expect, I don't see any reason he can't put up a 110-120.

I agree that Mo might be just as good offensively. But if he could spend an entire year in Iowa catching and he ends up being average defensively as a catcher, he becomes even more valuable moving forward. In essence the money they would spend on Suarez or another guy they would get so Mo could catch in AAA would be well spent if he ends up a guy who catches 110 games a year. 

[CubinNY]

Suarez is a ticking time bomb of a bad contract. When he's hot, he hits HR by the bunches, but his peaks are going to be lower and his valleys longer moving forward. He'd drive us all crazy. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Suarez is a ticking time bomb of a bad contract. When he's hot, he hits HR by the bunches, but his peaks are going to be lower and his valleys longer moving forward. He'd drive us all crazy. 

You may not have been responding to me, but I want to be clear, I am not advocating for Suarez. My comment was strictly in the event the Cubs traded for or signed someone who replaced Mo as the DH. Even if Mo could give them the same numbers of who they traded for or signed, allowing Mo to learn how to catch in Iowa might be worth the salary they give a guy to take MO’s spot on the roster. If by staying in Iowa another year he turns into a starting catcher instead of. DH, it is money well spent. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Yep. I keep in touch with Yagyu from PSD. He runs SAVERMETRICS the X account that nails all of the amateur signings. He's great in keeping on socials. 

His tracking of follows helps give me an idea who the Cubs are interested in. They tend to draft players they follow. Example: Eli Lovich was a tip off I got pre-draft a few years ago. That doesn't mean every follow is a draft pick, but there's a connection. 

So while it doesn't mean they will get both, it is worth a note. 

I agree, every follow doesn’t end up a draft pick. Could be because a team takes the guy a little earlier than the Cubs would have. But IMO it does mean they have an interest. Connects the dots, IMO this is a final step to see what a player is into. Maybe they don’t want another Shaw situation. As you said, they might not get either of those guys. But this does appear to mean they are seriously looking at them. Early+ for Shaw and the. Sign Gallen. I like it. 🤞Sign or trade for a utility bat. 
Does Wicks, Assad or Ben Brown get Casey Schmidt? He can take Shaw’s spot at utility. 

Edited February 4 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Suarez is a ticking time bomb of a bad contract. When he's hot, he hits HR by the bunches, but his peaks are going to be lower and his valleys longer moving forward. He'd drive us all crazy. 

He signed a one year deal. 

[Dfan25]

A little update on Gallen , out of Arizona :

 

 

If he truly wants to have a new team before ST , obviously running out of time