Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Backtobanks]

10 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Seems like the Red Sox are talking Duran with the Astros for Paredes but , the Astros don’t want to take any salary back in a Paredes trade . Interesting , they are also talking with the Pirates with Joey Bart involved .

 

A 3 team trade is also a possibility , seems like . With that in mind I wonder if there is a way for the Cubs to get involved there ?  Cubs get Duran , Red Sox get Paredes and the Astros get a pair of Cubs players .?

I wonder if the Astros would be willing to give Alcantara a chance in LF ? If they are looking for a catcher , Amaya involved maybe ?

 

Duran’s salary is 7.7 for this season , so if the Cubs were to get him they would still be way under the 2nd tier of the LT.

There would have to be many more players involved because Duran's trade value is 41.9, while Paredes is only 12.9.  Alcantara's trade value is only 6.2.

Edited February 8 by Backtobanks

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

There would have to be many more players involved because Duran's trade value is 41.9, while Paredes is only 12.9.  Alcantara's trade value is only 6.2.

What does Shaw to the Astros, Duran to the Cubs and Paredes+ to the Red Sox look like?

Hell, how about just Shaw for Duran. What does that look like in terms of trade value? 

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What does Shaw to the Astros, Duran to the Cubs and Paredes+ to the Red Sox look like?

Hell, how about just Shaw for Duran. What does that look like in terms of trade value? 

Shaw’s a 40.8. That’s the route I’d go for Shaw. Duran is 28 though with 3 more years of team control with arbitration.  he’d make the 2026 Cubs a better team with Suzuki sliding back into DH. I don’t like losing Shaw’s versatility but our 1-9 would be potent and the Moises experiment won’t be necessary and he can work on his catching in Iowa instead.

Can’t say whether it’s in the Cubs best interest or not. Jed’s been talking with Boston so if this was ever a possibility he would’ve signed a utility infielder before the market dried up, unless there’s some crazy scenario where he signs Gallen and flips Taillon for a utility If. 

Edited February 9 by Geographyhater8888

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What does Shaw to the Astros, Duran to the Cubs and Paredes+ to the Red Sox look like?

Hell, how about just Shaw for Duran. What does that look like in terms of trade value? 

I'm all for it.  We can get a utility IF pretty cheap to replace Shaw.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I'm all for it.  We can get a utility IF pretty cheap to replace Shaw.

Who you got in mind who isn't berti tier?

[Neuby]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Who you got in mind who isn't berti tier?

Berti wasn't a bad gamble last offseason for a final bench piece it just didn't pay off.

I don't want to trade Shaw but if they did somehow got Abreu or Duran? I'd fine with any of these guys taking his place in that scenario. 

Luis Urias

Ramon Urias

Luis Rengifo 

Jose Iglesias

 

[Tryptamine]

47 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Berti wasn't a bad gamble last offseason for a final bench piece it just didn't pay off.

I don't want to trade Shaw but if they did somehow got Abreu or Duran? I'd fine with any of these guys taking his place in that scenario. 

Luis Urias

Ramon Urias

Luis Rengifo 

Jose Iglesias

 

You want any of those guys getting 400+ PAs for the Cubs? I sure as heck don't. Ramon Urias is kind of tolerable, maybe I guess.

Ramon Urias 87 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 391 PAs

Luis Rengifo- 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR in 541 PAs

Luis Urias 84 wRC+ and  0.1 fWAR in 330 PAs

Jose Iglesias 73 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR in 343 PAs

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

You want any of those guys getting 400+ PAs for the Cubs? I sure as heck don't. Ramon Urias is kind of tolerable, maybe I guess.

Ramon Urias 87 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 391 PAs

Luis Rengifo- 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR in 541 PAs

Luis Urias 84 wRC+ and  0.1 fWAR in 330 PAs

Jose Iglesias 73 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR in 343 PAs

Rengifo was pretty good for 3 years prior to 2025. He isn’t too bad. 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Rengifo was pretty good for 3 years prior to 2025. He isn’t too bad. 

Sorry, when you're trying to compete for a WS I don't want a bounce back guy coming of a year like that getting hundreds of PAs.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Neuby said:

Berti wasn't a bad gamble last offseason for a final bench piece it just didn't pay off.

I don't want to trade Shaw but if they did somehow got Abreu or Duran? I'd fine with any of these guys taking his place in that scenario. 

Luis Urias

Ramon Urias

Luis Rengifo 

Jose Iglesias

 

Yeah, any of those guys would work and should cost no more than $4-5 million.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

You want any of those guys getting 400+ PAs for the Cubs? I sure as heck don't. Ramon Urias is kind of tolerable, maybe I guess.

Ramon Urias 87 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 391 PAs

Luis Rengifo- 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR in 541 PAs

Luis Urias 84 wRC+ and  0.1 fWAR in 330 PAs

Jose Iglesias 73 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR in 343 PAs

Those guys played on terrible teams, which is why they got that many PAs.  With the Cubs' IF, they won't get more than 200 PAs unless there's a catastrophic injury.

[Rcal10]

55 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Sorry, when you're trying to compete for a WS I don't want a bounce back guy coming of a year like that getting hundreds of PAs.

So why does Shaw get the benefit of the doubt that he wil be so much better. Sorry, I am not that worried about a bench bat if the Cubs could get Duran and then have him for a few years. I would like him in the lineup over Mo. The likely upside in the everyday line up that Duran gives the Cubs over Mo, not to mention the better defense in right, will have a bigger impact on the team then rhe 200-300 AB of a back up infielder. Not to mention maybe Mo actually catches everyday in the minors and becomes an average catcher. Also a big bonus. 

[Neuby]

59 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Sorry, when you're trying to compete for a WS I don't want a bounce back guy coming of a year like that getting hundreds of PAs.

Duran, Armstrong. Happ outfield defense would be worth it.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Duran, Armstrong. Happ outfield defense would be worth it.

Absolutely. Duran had a WAR over 4 last year, on an off year. I am not too worried about losing Shaw and having to find a utility infielder for maybe 250 AB if I can have Duran in the line up for the next 3 years. 

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What does Shaw to the Astros, Duran to the Cubs and Paredes+ to the Red Sox look like?

Hell, how about just Shaw for Duran. What does that look like in terms of trade value? 

I think Duran and Paredes are pretty equal as players, but the extra year of control for Duran I'd think the Astros would need to throw someone else in.  Aren't the Astros wanting to trade Paredes because of salary?  They might want someone pre-arb.

I like Duran but on the Cubs he might need to be in LF so not sure what he'd do on the team this year, unless he's DH.  Can the arm play in RF? Lefty bat, he's an upgrade over Mo at DH one assumes and keeps Mo in Iowa for defensive work..  Shaw for Duran seems even-ish to me but I might rather have Shaw with the 2 extra years, i think he'll hit.  Duran bats leadoff thus gets tons more of PAs yearly so his WAR has been a bit inflated.

[BigbadB]

17 hours ago, Neuby said:

Berti wasn't a bad gamble last offseason for a final bench piece it just didn't pay off.

 

 

While I agree, the problem was that Berti was NOT the final bench piece on last year's roster. They also had Gage Workman and Vidal Brujan on that same roster. 

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Duran bats leadoff thus gets tons more of PAs yearly so his WAR has been a bit inflated.

So does Ohtani. You can say this about anyone. No one claims Swanson’s was was penalized because he was moved down to 8th in the order and his 3.3 fWAR wasn’t a true reflection of his production. Duran has earned the privilege to leadoff because he’s an elite base runner with a 121 wRC+ since becoming an everyday starter in 2023.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

I think Duran and Paredes are pretty equal as players, but the extra year of control for Duran I'd think the Astros would need to throw someone else in.  Aren't the Astros wanting to trade Paredes because of salary?  They might want someone pre-arb.

I like Duran but on the Cubs he might need to be in LF so not sure what he'd do on the team this year, unless he's DH.  Can the arm play in RF? Lefty bat, he's an upgrade over Mo at DH one assumes and keeps Mo in Iowa for defensive work..  Shaw for Duran seems even-ish to me but I might rather have Shaw with the 2 extra years, i think he'll hit.  Duran bats leadoff thus gets tons more of PAs yearly so his WAR has been a bit inflated.

I think you are either undervaluing Duran or overvaluing Shaw. I doubt the Red Sox would do a 1-1 trade of those two guys. I have no issue with the Cubs making that the price, but I think that is an overpay for Shaw. Cubs fans, probably all fans, constantly overvalue their young talent. I could go back to 2015 when people argued the Cubs didn’t need Fowler because A. Alcantara was going to be just as good as him. Shaw is just the latest example of overvaluation. Duran in the line up would make for a very solid line up. Just add a utility bench bat for maybe 200-300AB. 

[Geographyhater8888]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think you are either undervaluing Duran or overvaluing Shaw. I doubt the Red Sox would do a 1-1 trade of those two guys. I have no issue with the Cubs making that the price, but I think that is an overpay for Shaw. Cubs fans, probably all fans, constantly overvalue their young talent. I could go back to 2015 when people argued the Cubs didn’t need Fowler because A. Alcantara was going to be just as good as him. Shaw is just the latest example of overvaluation. Duran in the line up would make for a very solid line up. Just add a utility bench bat for maybe 200-300AB. 

The Redsox are log jammed in the outfield and in need of a third baseman. I don’t think it’s at all a terrible overpay for Boston. If the cost is more then I wouldn’t consider it.

[Bertz]

I kind of assume this will hurt their defense nearly as much as it helps their offense, they really needed to pay up for Suarez.  Still Pirates aren't bad, they're better than the Reds were at this time last year IMO.

[Rcal10]

Gallen signing can’t be too much longer, right? P&C report tomorrow for some teams. I don’t want him if his spring is abbreviated. He needs to get to camp on time. So signing needs to happen. He has given dbacks long enough to try to fit him in. Time to sign with the Cubs. 

[17 Seconds]

the red sox traded for Caleb Durbin

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

the red sox traded for Caleb Durbin

I get it from the Sox side.  I'd rather have Shaw or Paredes than Durbin, but being able to draw the line at Harrison as the big piece going out is a big deal.

From the Brewers POV, you have to assume any pitcher they acquire is going to hit their 80th percentile outcome, but on paper without giving them the benefit of the doubt feels like a bad deal.  Very similar to the Isaac Collins trade.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

So does Ohtani. You can say this about anyone. No one claims Swanson’s was was penalized because he was moved down to 8th in the order and his 3.3 fWAR wasn’t a true reflection of his production. Duran has earned the privilege to leadoff because he’s an elite base runner with a 121 wRC+ since becoming an everyday starter in 2023.

Cumulative hitting stats all have this flaw, and yes it can apply to everyone.  Virtually guaranteed every team FO also uses some rate stat like "WAR per 600 PAs". 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Cumulative hitting stats all have this flaw, and yes it can apply to everyone.  Virtually guaranteed every team FO also uses some rate stat like "WAR per 600 PAs". 

I agree. But 4.7 WAR last year and over 8 the year before are pretty impressive, no matter how many AB he had. Not going to happen, probably because the Red Sox didn’t want to give that much away for Shaw. So they went with Durbin, much cheaper. I am fine keeping Shaw, but would have loved Duran.