Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree you should look at all the data. But because he does have solid swing and miss stuff and his k rate did increase as the year went on, I think he is being sold a little short. Besides that, before this year Logan Webb had a few low K rate years that were very good. And his k per 9 were 7.6 as opposed to Horton’s 7.4 last year. I agree Horton can’t sustain the success he had without getting a few more K’s, but guys can have good years at that level. And I think his level will improve. 

This isn't really about Horton anymore, and fully aware that I started by referencing his K rate. but generally unless I really feel like doing a deep dive (and I usually don't) my thought process is that the WAR projections encompass all of those individual data points, good and bad, and spits out a high level summary. And I'm hesitant to cherry pick the underlying data because it sometimes comes off as having an agenda. Logan Webb has run elite GB rates his entire career, Horton was just barely above league average (and worse in his 47 AAA innings). So he's a good example if you're looking at one stat (K/9) but the comparison kinda falls apaprt when Webb's worst GB rate is better than what Horton has done at any level ever in his professional career. 

[chibears55]

9 hours ago, Bull said:

Alcantara is out of options.

He has 1 left

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

This isn't really about Horton anymore, and fully aware that I started by referencing his K rate. but generally unless I really feel like doing a deep dive (and I usually don't) my thought process is that the WAR projections encompass all of those individual data points, good and bad, and spits out a high level summary. And I'm hesitant to cherry pick the underlying data because it sometimes comes off as having an agenda. Logan Webb has run elite GB rates his entire career, Horton was just barely above league average (and worse in his 47 AAA innings). So he's a good example if you're looking at one stat (K/9) but the comparison kinda falls apart when Webb's worst GB rate is better than what Horton has done at any level ever in his professional career. 

While I generally agree with you on taking the data as a whole, I think projections for a guy very specifically like Horton are difficult when you look at how much he evolved even after he got to MLB and how much he was learning on the job.  He certainly had some good luck variance, but it feels like there's some stuff there the projections can't calculate just because of the unknown.  I don't expect him to be  a 6 WAR guy this year, but I also don't expect him to be a 1.5 WAR guy either.

[Bertz]

I think the pitching staff is pretty easy to glass half empty, so while I'm optimistic on it overall it's not unreasonable to think it'll be pretty middling.

However, Fangraphs' depth charts are curated by humans, and they're a point in time estimate.  Worth noting that Steamer gives Ben Brown *as a starter* the same 3.97 ERA it gives to Edward Cabrera.  It gives Jordan Wicks *as a starter* a 4.05. 

That's two guys who each project to ~2.5 WAR over a full season collectively being marked down for 27 combined SP innings.  So even if the computers are right (and worth noting this does not yet include ZiPS, the better of the computers) there are easy levers to pull to improve the team's output.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

I always felt like Tucker's body language was kinda "meh" all the time. Even doing the "raise the roof" celebration after a hit felt insincere

I mean only old white people raise the roof anymore 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the idea they only traded for him for one year and never had any intent of signing him after the year is ridiculous. You may have thought it and said it the entire time, but that doesn’t make it true or any less ridiculous. I think them signing Bregman is proof that they did have the money where they could have kept Tucker. There is one thing being quiet and another being aloof. I also don’t think they liked how he responded to rehab. When he was traded for I do believe the FO hoped he would love Wrigley and the fans would love him. Maybe get a small discount and he retire a Cub. Obviously that didn’t happen. But, I think his actions off the field as a ballplayer caused them to change their mind on him. I just don’t think the Tucker experience went how the Cubs hoped it would. 
And, if you think about all those great hitters who came through Houston, he was the only one they didn’t even bother to try extending. They lost Correa, Bregman, Springer to free agency. Each they tried to keep. They kept Altuve and so far Alvarez. They traded Tucker.

They signed Bregman for around 5/150 if you factor deferrals.  No indication they're willing to spend 300m+ on anyone, and there's been no indication they made any serious pursuit of him this winter.

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

I always felt like Tucker's body language was kinda "meh" all the time. Even doing the "raise the roof" celebration after a hit felt insincere

I don’t buy any of that horsefeathers. Everyone is different. You don’t need everyone to be a leader. They could think he was goldbricking at the end of the season, who knows, but he’s a damn fine baseball player and will mash the ball for whoever signs him. There’s no reason to denigrate a guy. The owners are horsefeathers horsefeatherss. 

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t buy any of that horsefeathers. Everyone is different. You don’t need everyone to be a leader. They could think he was goldbricking at the end of the season, who knows, but he’s a damn fine baseball player and will mash the ball for whoever signs him. There’s no reason to denigrate a guy. The owners are horsefeathers horsefeatherss. 

I don't think that's a leadership thing, I think it's a "fitting into the culture" thing. PCA 100% fits into the culture, while Tucker always seemed uncomfortable in that dugout *shrug*

[CubUgly]

31 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I don't think that's a leadership thing, I think it's a "fitting into the culture" thing. PCA 100% fits into the culture, while Tucker always seemed uncomfortable in that dugout *shrug*

Tucker just seems uncomfortable in almost any situation I've seen him in.  That's just who he is.  I remember at Cubs convention last year he just seemed ill at ease and I was thinking "maybe he doesn't want to be here", but my in-laws are big Astro fans and they said that's just the way he is - it was just in Houston you had well established leaders and he could easily hide in the shadows.  

Sharma or Moody even said in their podcasts they really never got to know him to well that he cleared out of the locker room pretty fast - he was cordial and all that, but he just preferred to be to himself. 

Now some of the injury stuff I had and still have questions about and how he handled his part of that, but they weren't my injuries so I can't really judge effectively or fairly....just my perception. 

[Bull]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

He has 1 left

That’s what I get for trusting Gemini 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bull said:

That’s what I get for trusting Gemini 

To be fair, it looked like entering the year he'd have none left, but because the MLB's rules are weird, he still had one. 

AZ Phil's baseball opinions are kind of bad, but he's the king of these things.

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

I don't think that's a leadership thing, I think it's a "fitting into the culture" thing. PCA 100% fits into the culture, while Tucker always seemed uncomfortable in that dugout *shrug*

Feel like Turner fits with PCA; Tucker with Dansby. With turner gone it’s a much less ballsy dugout

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They signed Bregman for around 5/150 if you factor deferrals.  No indication they're willing to spend 300m+ on anyone, and there's been no indication they made any serious pursuit of him this winter.

I’m not disputing they never made a serious attempt at signing him. I just don’t agree that they made the trade with only having him one year, as the plan. I think, for whatever reason, their opinion of him changed as the season went on. So no long term offer. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I don’t buy any of that horsefeathers. Everyone is different. You don’t need everyone to be a leader. They could think he was goldbricking at the end of the season, who knows, but he’s a damn fine baseball player and will mash the ball for whoever signs him. There’s no reason to denigrate a guy. The owners are horsefeathers horsefeatherss. 

I'd agree that it's stupid, but there's definitely a pattern forming regarding them only signing character guys with leadership skills to the big deal. We've now got Dansby and Bregman and they more or less brought Turner in last year just for the sake of his clubhouse/leadership reputation.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

I don't think that's a leadership thing, I think it's a "fitting into the culture" thing. PCA 100% fits into the culture, while Tucker always seemed uncomfortable in that dugout *shrug*

I think they just have completely opposite personalities. 

[KCCub]

Sounds like a Tucker decision might be coming soon -

 

 

Have seen 3/$150m and recently 4/$200m thrown around. (Probably with opt outs and deferrals, but unknown)

[Post Count Padder]

Mets gave him that high AAV offer but Blue Jays gave him a longer term offer. I guess it depends which he prefers. I'd rather him not go to the Mets in part because the Mets whiffing on every FA including their own is objectively hilarious. 

[Post Count Padder]

I'm happy for Ranger Suarez getting the bag. He was quietly dominant in Philly for a bit before people took notice and he was well liked. He was likely never expected back and the Andrew Painter experience is arriving. 

Boston now has the best rotation in the division, maybe the AL. 

Sadly, for now we miss out on Ranger pitching for the Rangers. 

[KCCub]

6 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Mets gave him that high AAV offer but Blue Jays gave him a longer term offer. I guess it depends which he prefers. I'd rather him not go to the Mets in part because the Mets whiffing on every FA including their own is objectively hilarious. 

Yea I hope he goes to the Blue Jays and the O's land one of Valdez/Gallen. Just let the AL East beat the absolute piss out of each other since they seem to just sign all the FAs

[Post Count Padder]

6 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Yea I hope he goes to the Blue Jays and the O's land one of Valdez/Gallen. Just let the AL East beat the absolute piss out of each other since they seem to just sign all the FAs

And it makes so much sense for Tucker to go to Toronto and Framber to go to Baltimore. Fits obvious needs.

[Thusly Boned]

17 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

And it makes so much sense for Tucker to go to Toronto and Framber to go to Baltimore. Fits obvious needs.

Yeah, Toronto seems like the obvious fit for Tucker to me as well. He wouldn't need to be "the guy", and it isn't the pressure cooker NYC is. I think the Mets would be an awful fit for him.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Thusly Boned said:

Yeah, Toronto seems like the obvious fit for Tucker to me as well. He wouldn't need to be "the guy", and it isn't the pressure cooker NYC is. I think the Mets would be an awful fit for him.

He wouldn’t need to be ”the guy” with the Mets either.

[Derwood]

Saw that the Dodgers also offered 3 years, but at a much lower AAV than the Mets. What's the point?

[Neuby]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Saw that the Dodgers also offered 3 years, but at a much lower AAV than the Mets. What's the point?

Tucker might value Championships , LA weather and not having to be the guy over the Mets money.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

Tucker might value Championships , LA weather and not having to be the guy over the Mets money.

Mets have Soto. How does Tucker have to be “the guy” with the Mets?