Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Dfan25]

Huge blow to the Phillies . They have Turner / Harper / Schwarber  , but idk about the rest .  They also lost Suarez . Their window seems to be closing . I wonder if they go after Bellinger now ?

Edited January 16 by Dfan25

[Jason Ross]

Honestly, that Bregman contract looks like really solid $/Year value. No shot at Tucker or Bichette as players, but $30mAAV for him on 5 looks really solid.

[Dfan25]

Mets could still sign Valdez , but I think they have a great chance at Peralta 

[Petrey10]

Idk… I think I’d rather have Bichette at 3B for that deal than bregman.

 

 

I don’t hate the bregman deal. Just saying 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

rough 24 hours for toronto

Yeah they don't have an obvious pivot from here.  They have a good team and don't *need* to add anyone else but also looks like they're gonna be left holding a bag of ~$30M or go sign a Bellinger just out of principal.

[gflore34]

I don't get some of the Bregman' will regress due to age while the Dodgers with a team mostly consisting of players 30+ years old won't regress thoughts/statements, etc. I've seen.  Is age regression somehow selective?  If Cubs signed Tucker and the Dodgers signed Bregman, would Bregman therefore, be immune to age regression?

I also believe the Dodgers are taking gamble by letting Ohtani continuing to pitch.  Think it's only when, not if, his arm will explode.  On pitching side wouldn't hurt them much but, a Dodger lineup with Ohtani is very, very beatable.

[WhyCantWeWin]

3 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Idk… I think I’d rather have Bichette at 3B for that deal than bregman.

 

 

I don’t hate the bregman deal. Just saying 

Yeah i would have taken that Bichette deal, looks like they really value the leadership stuff really highly however 

[CubUgly]

17 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Huge blow to the Phillies . They have Turner / Harper / Schwarber  , but idk about the rest .  They also lost Suarez . Their window seems to be closing . I wonder if they go after Bellinger now ?

Agreed and all those guys are aging....Schwarber it seems better than the other two.  Realmuto and Nola ain't exactly in their primes either. 

[Derwood]

The Mets seem like a place you go if you want to underachieve and not win the championship. 

[CubUgly]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I don't get some of the Bregman' will regress due to age while the Dodgers with a team mostly consisting of players 30+ years old won't regress thoughts/statements, etc. I've seen.  Is age regression somehow selective?  If Cubs signed Tucker and the Dodgers signed Bregman, would Bregman therefore, be immune to age regression?

I also believe the Dodgers are taking gamble by letting Ohtani continuing to pitch.  Think it's only when, not if, his arm will explode.  On pitching side wouldn't hurt them much but, a Dodger lineup with Ohtani is very, very beatable.

The Cubs models show him aging well, similar to Zobrist who signed a 4-year with the Cubs at age 34.   I've said it before on Tucker - I don't think he'll age well.  I'm guessing most teams feel the same as well, as I'm sure he wanted a long term contract and I don't think he was getting offered that by anyone?

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

How would a cap and floor system possibly not benefit competition?  No, it doesn't solve every problem, but it lops off the outliers at the top, and especially the bottom, to bring them closer to the pack.

MLB without a cap is one of the most competitively diverse sports in the world. What is a cap going to do besides line the pockets of the owners and give them an even bigger excuse not to spend their profits as they raise the prices of everything in the middle of a stagnating economy.

[17 Seconds]

24 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Huge blow to the Phillies . They have Turner / Harper / Schwarber  , but idk about the rest .  They also lost Suarez . Their window seems to be closing . I wonder if they go after Bellinger now ?

 

Edited January 16 by 17 Seconds

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

The Cubs models show him aging well, similar to Zobrist who signed a 4-year with the Cubs at age 34.   I've said it before on Tucker - I don't think he'll age well.  I'm guessing most teams feel the same as well, as I'm sure he wanted a long term contract and I don't think he was getting offered that by anyone?

I believe this as well, I loved Kyle Tucker, a healthy Kyle Tucker was the best player in the NL Central but, there's the catch.  He has injury history, it's not going to improve with age, wouldn't be surprised if misses a decent amount of games as a Dodger.

[KCCub]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah they don't have an obvious pivot from here.  They have a good team and don't *need* to add anyone else but also looks like they're gonna be left holding a bag of ~$30M or go sign a Bellinger just out of principal.

Yep, they're a good team with great pitching, but one big bat short now. 

[squally1313]

33 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I don't get some of the Bregman' will regress due to age while the Dodgers with a team mostly consisting of players 30+ years old won't regress thoughts/statements, etc. I've seen.  Is age regression somehow selective?  If Cubs signed Tucker and the Dodgers signed Bregman, would Bregman therefore, be immune to age regression?

I also believe the Dodgers are taking gamble by letting Ohtani continuing to pitch.  Think it's only when, not if, his arm will explode.  On pitching side wouldn't hurt them much but, a Dodger lineup with Ohtani is very, very beatable.

The Dodgers projections, as noted elsewhere, looked relatively mortal when they came out earlier this week. I think it's more that the cash keeps flying out the door, so whenever Freeman/Betts/Smith starts to lose a step they'll just blow everyone away for the next guy.

As for Ohtani, not an expert here, are there arm injuries that would keep him out of the DH spot? It kinda blew my mind at the time, but he spent a whole year recovering from UCL surgery and DHed the whole time. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Bichette deal is functionally the Bregman deal from last offseason, right? Opt outs after each of first two years

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Bichette deal is functionally the Bregman deal from last offseason, right? Opt outs after each of first two years

I am perfectly happy with the Bregman deal after seeing Tucker and Bichette. 

[Jason Ross]

Realmuto to Phillies - 3/$45m

[CubUgly]

49 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I believe this as well, I loved Kyle Tucker, a healthy Kyle Tucker was the best player in the NL Central but, there's the catch.  He has injury history, it's not going to improve with age, wouldn't be surprised if misses a decent amount of games as a Dodger.

I hate to say it too, I hold not ill will toward Tucker - great hitter....but I can see a trajectory similar to KB's.  I remember with KB one of his early injuries he tried to play through and it did not go well and he heard some criticism I'm sure for the first time in his career.  I think from then on, he decided he was not going to play unless he was 100% and he started missing more and more time each year and now it has become the very sad story it has today .  I think the stuff with Tuck last year might have some of the same dynamics.

Now I don't wish that on Tuck, would love if I'm wrong.....but I also hate the Dodgers so I can't say I'm pulling for him, that would be a lie. 

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Realmuto to Phillies - 3/$45m

WOOF

[Bertz]

The Phillies after losing the NLDS were all "we need to change things up we're getting stale etc. etc." and now they're running back the same team from last year but swapping Ranger Suarez and Matt Strahm for Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller.

It's basically the crappy 2018/2019 offseason we dealt with except except somehow worse because we held onto Cole Hamels with a team option while the Phillies had to give Schwarber a contract that made ZiPS want to put a gun in its mouth.

[Rob]

22 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Realmuto to Phillies - 3/$45m

There's a lot of reasons Realmuto's production could crater over the next 3 years. On opening day he'll be a 35 year old catcher who has logged a metric ton of innings behind the plate in his career. He's never really been protected by getting time at 1B or DH. His speed and power have dropped in recent years. Etc...

That said, he's put up 2.0, 2.0, and 2.1 fWAR in the last three years -- including one season where he only logged 99 games. Before that, he was routinely putting up 4-6 win seasons.

With a little health, a solid sub, and a marginal return to form he could put up a single season that's worth near that whole $45 mil. And even if he doesn't $45 mil isn't what it used to be in this game. He's probably worth nearly that with something approximating standard age-related decline. I think it's a reasonably solid risk, and for a team like the Phillies seeing their window of contention closing -- it's a risk they absolutely had to take.

[BigSlick]

I'm not crazy that 4 years, 240, 60 mil AAV is a pretty good team deal right? Like, not a lot of years, no guarantees to really take on his decline years, lots of potential opt outs. 60 mil is a ton per year but because its so short its not a huge price tag overall. 

If I had heard the Cubs gave him that deal, I would have been ecstatic, is what I'm saying. 

[imb]

i would much rather have Bregman committed for half a decade than have to be back in the 3B market next offseason after Bichette opts out. 

[Jason Ross]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Phillies after losing the NLDS were all "we need to change things up we're getting stale etc. etc." and now they're running back the same team from last year but swapping Ranger Suarez and Matt Strahm for Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller.

It's basically the crappy 2018/2019 offseason we dealt with except except somehow worse because we held onto Cole Hamels with a team option while the Phillies had to give Schwarber a contract that made ZiPS want to put a gun in its mouth.

Yeah this is a pretty brutal offseason for Philly all things considered. It just doesn't look good at all for them. They aren't entirely horrible, but it feels like they've missed across the board this year.