Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

28 minutes ago, Rob said:

There's a lot of reasons Realmuto's production could crater over the next 3 years. On opening day he'll be a 35 year old catcher who has logged a metric ton of innings behind the plate in his career. He's never really been protected by getting time at 1B or DH. His speed and power have dropped in recent years. Etc...

That said, he's put up 2.0, 2.0, and 2.1 fWAR in the last three years -- including one season where he only logged 99 games. Before that, he was routinely putting up 4-6 win seasons.

With a little health, a solid sub, and a marginal return to form he could put up a single season that's worth near that whole $45 mil. And even if he doesn't $45 mil isn't what it used to be in this game. He's probably worth nearly that with something approximating standard age-related decline. I think it's a reasonably solid risk, and for a team like the Phillies seeing their window of contention closing -- it's a risk they absolutely had to take.

I think every move the Phillies have done in isolation this winter is somewhere in the vicinity of fine.  But spending $75M in FA for the combo of Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Adolis Garcia, and Brad Keller is a disaster.

[Rcal10]

As it stands now, I think the Cubs are the 2nd best team in then NL. They had a decent to very good off season. Brewers always find a way so they will probably be good. But I do like this team this year. 

[Post Count Padder]

That's not unreasonable for Realmuto in a vacuum but taking the rest of the offseason into account it's underwhelming and typical of the Phillies FO the last couple years. Band-aid fixes and additions at the fringes. They shelled out to keep Schwarber, yeah. And he's well liked here by everyone and still mashes. But the Phillies still feel one or two pieces away and they're not making that jump. They are now basically running back the same roster from last year's disappointment. Add in that they have a malcontent and overpaid Castellanos still on the roster.

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Phillies after losing the NLDS were all "we need to change things up we're getting stale etc. etc." and now they're running back the same team from last year but swapping Ranger Suarez and Matt Strahm for Adolis Garcia and Brad Keller.

It's basically the crappy 2018/2019 offseason we dealt with except except somehow worse because we held onto Cole Hamels with a team option while the Phillies had to give Schwarber a contract that made ZiPS want to put a gun in its mouth.

I agree I see lot's of similarities - this could well be our 2019 outcome for the Phils this year.  They are aging - and outside of Schwarber probably not aging that well.  Harper/Nola/Realmuto/Castellanos and Turner because speed is such a big part of his game.....this might just be the best last opportunity this year because, still good players all, but I think the best season for all of those guys are in their rear view mirror.  

[chopsx9]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I am perfectly happy with the Bregman deal after seeing Tucker and Bichette. 

I'd rather the Bichette on his deal but, yeah, I felt the Bregman deal was bonkers (last year as well) but now it almost seems ho hum.

[BigSlick]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

As it stands now, I think the Cubs are the 2nd best team in then NL. They had a decent to very good off season. Brewers always find a way so they will probably be good. But I do like this team this year. 

Are we? 

We got Bregman, cool. That's an upgrade at 3b. But we lost Kyle Tucker and will probably downgrade production from RF from 2025. That reads to me like a wash on our offense from 2025 to 2026.

Are we improving? I can see the argument that we haven't declined in quality. Are we better than last year? 

 

Edited January 16 by BigSlick

[mul21]

12 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Are we? 

We got Bregman, cool. That's an upgrade at 3b. But we lost Kyle Tucker and will probably downgrade production from RF from 2025. That reads to me like a wash on our offense from 2025 to 2026.

Are we improving? I can see the argument that we haven't declined in quality. Are we better than last year? 

 

I would argue that, barring injury, the starting pitching is probably better and with a ready made reinforcement available no later than July 1st, you even have pretty good insurance there.  You're probably better overall offensively too because if Mo Baller is the almost every day DH, you're likely going to get better offensive production there than 3rd base provided last year and most everything else will be essentially a wash.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Are we? 

We got Bregman, cool. That's an upgrade at 3b. But we lost Kyle Tucker and will probably downgrade production from RF from 2025. That reads to me like a wash on our offense from 2025 to 2026.

Are we improving? I can see the argument that we haven't declined in quality. Are we better than last year? 

 

I think in terms of players in and players out it's a slight positive.  Tucker's better than Bregman but not enough to cover Cabrera.  Everything else is pretty flat.

For the stuff in house, YMMV on whether the youths on the team will improve faster than the 30-somethings will decline.  It feels like a tossup, that said the Cubs and the Brewers are the only NL contenders from last year where the ravages of aging are a question rather than an inevitability.

Overall the Cubs are flat-ish from last year, but the NL's upper crust is broadly taking a step back and the Cubs are at least getting younger in the process.

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Are we? 

We got Bregman, cool. That's an upgrade at 3b. But we lost Kyle Tucker and will probably downgrade production from RF from 2025. That reads to me like a wash on our offense from 2025 to 2026.

Are we improving? I can see the argument that we haven't declined in quality. Are we better than last year? 

 

I think we are. I like Bregman and Mo to produce Shaw and Tucker numbers. Cubs added Cabrera and have Steele coming back. The pen was revamped but should be fine. Bench is better. And, they were arguably in the running for the second best team in the NL last year. I think the Phillies got worse. As I said, you never know with the Brewers, but on paper they shouldn’t be as good as the Cubs. Even if you don’t agree the Cubs are better than last year, they most likely are not worse. And last year they won 92 games. 

[Cubs420psd]

40 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Are we? 

We got Bregman, cool. That's an upgrade at 3b. But we lost Kyle Tucker and will probably downgrade production from RF from 2025. That reads to me like a wash on our offense from 2025 to 2026.

Are we improving? I can see the argument that we haven't declined in quality. Are we better than last year? 

 

Idk if they are the second best team in the NL, but I think they are better than last year.

I think the starting rotation, bench and bullpen( atleast on paper) are better.

 

I expect the offense to take a step back. I don't expect to see repeat performances from guys like PCA, Kelly and Seiya. I like Bregman, but I agree with others hes not a true replacement of Tucker.

 

Its gonna come down to the bullpen, i think the rotation's going to be really good, especially in the regular season, but the bullpen im not as sure of.

 

If they get solid production there, I think it'll more than make up for a dip in offense.

 

 

 

Edited January 16 by Cubs420psd

[muntjack]

I feel like the bullpen is already in better shape as we don't have a 60-yr old vet guaranteed the closer's role.  I'm sure there will need to be adjustments, but they should come quickly this time.  

The rotation is deep and has a higher ceiling.  

I personally think the offense will be slightly better, without the high highs and low lows of 2025.  

[Outshined_One]

I'm a bit skeptical of the rotation.  I like it a lot on paper, but there will be a heavy reliance on guys who wore down at the end of 2025 (Imanaga and Boyd), guys who will likely be on inning/pitch restrictions due to prior injury concerns (Cabrera, Horton, Steele, and Wiggins), and a big pile of *shrug* that could outperform expectations (Taillon, Rea, Wicks, Brown, Assad).

I really like their chances if everyone stays healthy.  I just have to wonder what the rotation is going to look like come September.

[Cubs420psd]

Counsell was just on The Score. He made it seem like Shaw might see some serious innings in the OF.

[Gjfificifjdej]

People who are upset about losing Tucker did not watch games after April. People who want a salary cap should not be allowed to watch baseball. Salary caps are pro billionaire and anti labour. I would rather cut the bottom third of MLB out than suffer the utter catastrophe of a salary cap. 

[17 Seconds]

38 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

People who are upset about losing Tucker did not watch games after April. People who want a salary cap should not be allowed to watch baseball. Salary caps are pro billionaire and anti labour. I would rather cut the bottom third of MLB out than suffer the utter catastrophe of a salary cap. 

i'm fine with how it worked out,  but tucker has 3000+ PA in mlb, so i wouldn't really be concerned with how he hit in the second half. if he stays on the field, he's probably going to be really good

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Cubs420psd said:

Counsell was just on The Score. He made it seem like Shaw might see some serious innings in the OF.

If Shaw hits , I can see him being that 10th man so to speak and get a couple starts a week rotating between DH, 2B, 3B, and OF. 

He would be able to keep alot of guys fresh throughout the season 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Hit it on the nose from a previous post/conversation about Ricketts at the convention. Lol

He didn't get booed, talked about 2025 playoffs, the 2 new additions, 2016. and new inductees before exiting stage right..lol

Cool he inducted Vince Lloyd and Jody into the Cubs HOF, Lester too but was he there long enough and was his 3 good seasons of the 6 enough to be inducted to Cubs hall of famer.

 

Are you saying Jody Davis is a sure fire Cubs hall of Famer but Jon Lester isn’t?

[chopsx9]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are. I like Bregman and Mo to produce Shaw and Tucker numbers. Cubs added Cabrera and have Steele coming back. The pen was revamped but should be fine. Bench is better. And, they were arguably in the running for the second best team in the NL last year. I think the Phillies got worse. As I said, you never know with the Brewers, but on paper they shouldn’t be as good as the Cubs. Even if you don’t agree the Cubs are better than last year, they most likely are not worse. And last year they won 92 games. 

I'm not so sure.  Which position player had a down year last year?  Any of them?  There were big unexpected years from PCA and Seiya...Kelly too, really.  Nico's best year?  Busch's certainly.  Happ was Happ.  Dansby was above his previous Cubs years I think...if not, certainly not much below.  What are the chances that repeats.  I think the starting pitching is better...certainly deeper.  The Pen is always a wild card.  I'm just a little nervous that regression hits somewhere.  Is there an offensive player that you can say "We'll he's probably going to be better this year"?  Shaw's probably that guy (Tucker would've been as well) - now Bregman would certainly be expected to out perform last year's Shaw but that's mitigated somewhat by the loss of Tucker.  I'm a Cubs fan, so I'm nervous.

[731.4life]

Will the Cubs be better in 2026? I would say yes, but not sure if you're going to see that in the win column. For one, we're not sure where Milwaukee is going to be in 2026. Milwaukee won 97 games and went 16-5 vs Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Mariners. Chances are, that's not going to happen again.

With that being said, I'm curious to see if Busch can keep performing to what he did in 2025, and how's the defense is going to be in right field. I'm curious about that.

[Derwood]

[DrCub]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think every move the Phillies have done in isolation this winter is somewhere in the vicinity of fine.  But spending $75M in FA for the combo of Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Adolis Garcia, and Brad Keller is a disaster.

Considering the fall off a cliff in projected WAR for Schwarber this is an understatement.  

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, chopsx9 said:

I'm not so sure.  Which position player had a down year last year?  Any of them?  There were big unexpected years from PCA and Seiya...Kelly too, really.  Nico's best year?  Busch's certainly.  Happ was Happ.  Dansby was above his previous Cubs years I think...if not, certainly not much below.  What are the chances that repeats.  I think the starting pitching is better...certainly deeper.  The Pen is always a wild card.  I'm just a little nervous that regression hits somewhere.  Is there an offensive player that you can say "We'll he's probably going to be better this year"?  Shaw's probably that guy (Tucker would've been as well) - now Bregman would certainly be expected to out perform last year's Shaw but that's mitigated somewhat by the loss of Tucker.  I'm a Cubs fan, so I'm nervous.

No below replacement level production from the bench, they’ve upgraded, no 15 starts from Ben Brown with added SP depth and Horton being in the opening day rotation. Shota Tailon and Steele all missing 10+ starts and costed wins, so health played a role last year. The. addition of Bregman alone should add at least 3.5 more wins from third base. Third base posted a 0 fWAR and a-.9 going into the all start break. 
 

Suzukis home runs were up but his OPS was down 40+ points from both 23-24. Swanson had a down year defensively too, whether or not it’s age related I can’t say. Happ posted his lowest fWAR since 2021 and had bad BABIP luck. 

The catcher position and the void left by Tucker are the only areas where I expect a noticeable dip in production. The high leverage relief arms might not be as reliable either.

I see this team within 3 games of last years win total potentially in either direction and will likely underperform their pythag win record by at least 4 games. Because that’s what they do. 

Edited January 17 by Geographyhater8888

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think in terms of players in and players out it's a slight positive.  Tucker's better than Bregman but not enough to cover Cabrera.  Everything else is pretty flat.

For the stuff in house, YMMV on whether the youths on the team will improve faster than the 30-somethings will decline.  It feels like a tossup, that said the Cubs and the Brewers are the only NL contenders from last year where the ravages of aging are a question rather than an inevitability.

Overall the Cubs are flat-ish from last year, but the NL's upper crust is broadly taking a step back and the Cubs are at least getting younger in the process.

We have Cabrera but Taillon, Shota, Boyd, and Rea will be a year older and any or all of them could age regress.  Nobody in our rotation projects as better than an average ERA.  

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

We have Cabrera but Taillon, Shota, Boyd, and Rea will be a year older and any or all of them could age regress.  Nobody in our rotation projects as better than an average ERA.  

Can you show your work on that last part?

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are. I like Bregman and Mo to produce Shaw and Tucker numbers. Cubs added Cabrera and have Steele coming back. The pen was revamped but should be fine. Bench is better. And, they were arguably in the running for the second best team in the NL last year. I think the Phillies got worse. As I said, you never know with the Brewers, but on paper they shouldn’t be as good as the Cubs. Even if you don’t agree the Cubs are better than last year, they most likely are not worse. And last year they won 92 games. 

And Shaw will replace Castro/Berti/Brujan/Looez/Workman etc. 

Suzuki had down year too contrary to popular belief as did Happ with bad BABIP luck. Swanson had a bad year defensively relative to his usual performance. Hopefully it’s not age related. PCA and Busch are semi question marks. The catcher position will probably see a dip in production too. But the improve bench has been a bit underrated in my opinion. They were below replacement level last season posting a -2 fWAR. 

Edited January 17 by Geographyhater8888