Winter Doldrums Thread

[Geographyhater8888]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

They are inherently conservative, and they should be, but I'll say Steamer seems to really regress defense down to a nub. 

The Cubs have gotten a multi-win boost in the depth charts each of the last few years when they finish folding in ZiPS, and a large chunk of that is that ZiPS seems to actually acknowledge that Swanson and Hoerner are stellar defenders.

For Horton I'd guess the weak projection is the lack of strikeouts.   I do know Dan Szymborski said in a chat that ZiPS likes him a lot more than Steamer, but TBD what that exactly looks like.

Unless the Google AI search results were incorrect, ZIPS projected Horton to go 8-9 with a 4.33 era. So in other words Michael Busch will lose war from bad defense? Because I see no reason to think last year was a fluke. Makes sense that PCA drops to 3.5 by steamer in that case. FCDC projects a 4.5. 

Edited January 4 by Geographyhater8888

[Cuzi]

On 1/1/2026 at 7:19 PM, Bertz said:

I do wonder if there's a young 3B out there that we could do a challenge trade with.  Like Owen Caissie for Jace Jung lets say?

I still come back around to Ronny Mauricio from the Mets. The guy has yet to break out, he's a very good defender with tremendous power. He's used up 2 years of service time over there. Brett Baty finally seemed to click. And this offseason the Mets traded for Semien. So Mauricio has lost his spots to even get a foot in the door over there. He shouldn't be too expensive to acquire and with Shaw at 3B for at least a year, he can sit on our bench and try to figure something out at the plate in the event Hoerner doesn't return in 2027.

I'm running out of ways to see this offseason being more than a failure. At this point it's down to signing one of the best remaining pitchers and finding another Michael Busch for 2B/3B for 2027.

[Bertz]

52 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Unless the Google AI search results were incorrect, ZIPS projected Horton to go 8-9 with a 4.33 era. So in other words Michael Busch will lose war from bad defense? Because I see no reason to think last year was a fluke. Makes sense that PCA drops to 3.5 by steamer in that case. FCDC projects a 4.5. 

Oops I missed Busch.  This looks like Steamer disliking his bat coming into last year:

108 wRC+ pre season '25

140 actual wRC+ in '25

122 wRC+ pre season '26

So he actually moved the needle a ton, it just started from a low place.  He is another guy that will presumably get a bump when ZiPS comes out though.  ZiPS had him at 117 coming into last year.  I'd guess after last year it'll peg him around a 130 and ~3 WAR.

[muntjack]

The best (and most plausible) outcome is still there.  Trade for Cabrera (perhaps mid on the ZIPS list but age, team control, premium stuff and high ceiling make him the right fit).  Then add Bregman or Bichette via FA.  That would be a pretty exciting offseason in my book.  

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I still come back around to Ronny Mauricio from the Mets. The guy has yet to break out, he's a very good defender with tremendous power. He's used up 2 years of service time over there. Brett Baty finally seemed to click. And this offseason the Mets traded for Semien. So Mauricio has lost his spots to even get a foot in the door over there. He shouldn't be too expensive to acquire and with Shaw at 3B for at least a year, he can sit on our bench and try to figure something out at the plate in the event Hoerner doesn't return in 2027.

I'm running out of ways to see this offseason being more than a failure. At this point it's down to signing one of the best remaining pitchers and finding another Michael Busch for 2B/3B for 2027.

Time remaining isn’t the issue. There is still a lot of time and good options. The issue is, I believe we all know they won’t do anything significant for a bat. If they wanted to, they absolutely could trade for Cabrera and sign Bichette. They would be under the LT line and have money for any deadline moves. Shaw can be utility and move to second when Nico leaves. But an, I have no faith in them doing that. So that probably means, last arm standing is signed by the Cubs for around $20M a year and then add a bat of little significance. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, muntjack said:

The best (and most plausible) outcome is still there.  Trade for Cabrera (perhaps mid on the ZIPS list but age, team control, premium stuff and high ceiling make him the right fit).  Then add Bregman or Bichette via FA.  That would be a pretty exciting offseason in my book.  

WOW, see my post right after you. Very similar idea. Wish the Cubs agreed. 

[Geographyhater8888]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Oops I missed Busch.  This looks like Steamer disliking his bat coming into last year:

108 wRC+ pre season '25

140 actual wRC+ in '25

122 wRC+ pre season '26

So he actually moved the needle a ton, it just started from a low place.  He is another guy that will presumably get a bump when ZiPS comes out though.  ZiPS had him at 117 coming into last year.  I'd guess after last year it'll peg him around a 130 and ~3 WAR.

Same deal for Suzuki. More at bats vs left handed pitching will likely be a big reason for any dip in offensive metrics in real life. Not sure if ZIPS weighs that or not or if Busch’s projections would improve if they signed Goldschmidt for example. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Same deal for Suzuki. More at bats vs left handed pitching will likely be a big reason for any dip in offensive metrics in real life. Not sure if ZIPS weighs that or not or if Busch’s projections would improve if they signed Goldschmidt for example. 

I know you are just using Goldschmidt as an example, but I have seen him mentioned before as well. Is he even an option? The last bench spot for the Cubs has to be a utility guy, right? Or if they did sign Bichette or Bregman, Shaw would be utility. I believe they addressed a bench/semi platoon first base, right handed bat with the American guy (Tyler Austin or is it Austin Tyler?) they signed from Japan. 

[Geographyhater8888]

32 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know you are just using Goldschmidt as an example, but I have seen him mentioned before as well. Is he even an option? The last bench spot for the Cubs has to be a utility guy, right? Or if they did sign Bichette or Bregman, Shaw would be utility. I believe they addressed a bench/semi platoon first base, right handed bat with the American guy (Tyler Austin or is it Austin Tyler?) they signed from Japan. 

I haven’t heard anything one way or another. He doesn’t offer the infield positional flexibility they supposedly want. Another poster said Counsel intends to keep Busch in the lineup vs lefties. Tyler Austin hasn’t had an MLB bat since 2019. Not sure if he can be counted on. 

Edited January 4 by Geographyhater8888

[Outshined_One]

I have to ask, are the Marlins actually sellers? They went on a run in June and didn't sell at the deadline despite all predictions, and finished with a mediocre yet respectable 79-83 record.

I get that their history usually suggests they tend to go into Sell Mode in these kinds of circumstances, but they could also run it back with their current team and make a run at the NL East.

[Illiterate Scholar]

The Marlins have a lot of talented young pitchers, and say what you want about the Cubs' farm system, but what they can offer is MLB ready pieces (which is different than the Baz deal). Trading someone like Cabrera might be less about selling and more about getting a bat or two and maybe another pitcher that could also contribute in 2026. It does seem like they don't want to trade Sandy.

Edited January 4 by Illiterate Scholar

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

The Marlins have a lot of talented young pitchers, and say what you want about the Cubs' farm system, but what they can offer is MLB ready pieces (which is different than the Baz deal). Trading someone like Cabrera might be less about selling and more about getting a bat or two and maybe another pitcher that could also contribute in 2026. It does seem like they don't want to trade Sandy.

Yeah I think the calculus is something like

Caissie + Max Meyer > Cabrera + Griffin Conine

I don't knoe their depth chart well enough to know if those are the exact tradeoffs, but it's something like that.  And definitely more complicated than oure selling, which is why the Cubs are an ideal partner.

[Tryptamine]

Any time now Jed. He's so incredibly frustrating. 

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Steamer and Fangraphs are very conservative with projections. Nico’s had a 4.4 fWAR average since 22 and he’s projected to post a 3.5, Busch 2.4 and 2, down from 3.5, Horton 1.3 down from 2.2 with more projected innings. Is this the correct interpretation?

No. The correct interpretation is that they are in no way accurate and no one should pay any attention to them except in a general way to see a ballpark number that may or may not happen based on variables that are not controlled for, ever, no matter how much they "tweak" the system every year. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

I have to ask, are the Marlins actually sellers? They went on a run in June and didn't sell at the deadline despite all predictions, and finished with a mediocre yet respectable 79-83 record.

I get that their history usually suggests they tend to go into Sell Mode in these kinds of circumstances, but they could also run it back with their current team and make a run at the NL East.

They have to be caught when the players get moderately expensive and they aren't waxing talent. They are definitely waxing now, with many of the trades they've made over the last couple of years. They have a decent manager, and I like Kapler a lot. I don't think they are going to make any moves that keeps the needle from rising. 

[Jason Ross]

 

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Bregman also appears to be progressing 

So whatever happens it does appear things are going to start being whittled down after Imai/the holidays held everything up for weeks

 

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If only this guide meant anything I would absolutely love Lopez and Buxton for Cassie and Little. But we know that isn’t close regardless of what BTV says. Even an overpay of Cassie, any pitcher listed here and Triantos or Long isn’t getting Lopez and Buxton. If the Cubs could do that and still be about $5M to $7M under the LT, I would love that sort of move. But think the Twins would get better offers if they moved both those guys. 

I didn't say that BTV was the absolute guide in making a trade, but I was just showing BobbyD3 that there is enough trade value to get Lopez or Lopez and Buxton if both sides were willing.  I didn't even use some of our top prospects like Wiggins, Rojas, etc. To get what we want/need, Hoyer is going to have to overpay in cash or prospects which is why he's not going to do it.

[Geographyhater8888]

55 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

No. The correct interpretation is that they are in no way accurate and no one should pay any attention to them except in a general way to see a ballpark number that may or may not happen based on variables that are not controlled for, ever, no matter how much they "tweak" the system every year. 

I’m with you. 1.3 fWAR for Horton is a bit optimistic.

[Dfan25]

Mish is very reliable when it comes to Marlins stuff . I wonder if things are getting hot with the Yankees . Notice how he says if it finalizes at the end of the tweet . That kind of wording often results in a deal 

[Tryptamine]

If Bregman and Cabrera go off the board too, there is almost no chance Jed is going to be win me over with whatever slop he pieces together.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If Bregman and Cabrera go off the board too, there is almost no chance Jed is going to be win me over with whatever slop he pieces together.

For me, it isn’t a question of “can Jed still salvage the off season” it is “will he be aggressive enough to do so”? To the first part I say yes it can be salvaged, but the question of will he do it, that answer is no. He still can sign Bjchette and trade for Gore or Ryan. There are probably a few more pitchers he can trade for as well. But he isn’t going to do it. I think, once again, he has failed to realize the market price in terms of real money for free agents and cost in the way of player assets to trade for young pitchers. 

[Rcal10]

My out of the box prediction is the Cubs end up signing E. Suarez to a Bellinger sort of contract late in the off season when he falls to them. Maybe a 3 year deal where he can opt out after each year. He doesn’t cost a draft pick so if he leaves after one year, it isn’t a big deal. I think Jed will whiff on other deals and end up with Suarez. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

31 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But he isn’t going to do it. I think, once again, he has failed to realize the market price in terms of real money for free agents and cost in the way of player assets to trade for young pitchers. 

I agree. I blame the Ricketts for the ridiculous budget constraints, but it does feel like Jed always seems to think he can shop at the top of the market within that budget and is always surprised that the costs are as high as they are, whether it is for contracts for free agents or prospects in trades. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

 

I turn the page when I see cubs are interested...lol

I'd love to know of all the players that Cubs been rumored to have interest in the past couple years have actually had a legit offer made to them, my guess would be very few.

They seem to mostly sign or trade for players that are barely on anyone's radar for them.

Edited January 4 by chibears55