Winter Doldrums Thread

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Sure. Like I said, I didn't tell you what will or won't happen. But if there's more money there than we think there is, that should give us a rosier picture of what could happen than some are willing to have right now. 

He made it clear the Cubs aren't in on Valdez and won't be however.

But if Imai + Bregman money was there, Bichette + Gallen money would probably be available. And I think that'd be a fun way to wrap up the offseason as a possibility. Probably won't happen, but I think before that article, none of us expected there to be that much wiggle room above the LT, too.

Yes, that would be an awesome way to end the off season. And, I agree it is possible. I just don’t know if Jed has the nerve to stay in on guys and complete the deal. If they can go over then he needs to make it happen. We need to hear more than “Cubs are checking in on someone”. We need to hear “in negotiations with Bichette”.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes, that would be an awesome way to end the off season. And, I agree it is possible. I just don’t know if Jed has the nerve to stay in on guys and complete the deal. If they can go over then he needs to make it happen. We need to hear more than “Cubs are checking in on someone”. We need to hear “in negotiations with Bichette”.

I would expect that anything that the Cubs do will not have those rumors. We never heard we were in contract negotiations with Imai but both Matt and Cerami have said today the Cubs thought they had him and then didn't.

It's more likely that we will hear light connections and then, boom, it will just drop. 

[Tryptamine]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would expect that anything that the Cubs do will not have those rumors. We never heard we were in contract negotiations with Imai but both Matt and Cerami have said today the Cubs thought they had him and then didn't.

It's more likely that we will hear light connections and then, boom, it will just drop. 

Hard not to be the case when they're linked to basically everyone

Edited January 5 by Tryptamine

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

 

But if Imai + Bregman money was there, Bichette + Gallen money would probably be available. And I think that'd be a fun way to wrap up the offseason as a possibility. Probably won't happen, but I think before that article, none of us expected there to be that much wiggle room above the LT, too.

They may have been trying for Imai but I doubt they were ever in on Bregman let alone Bregman and Imai.

Cubs current payroll is at around 209(FanGraph), even if they go to 240 but stay under 244, 30 mil wouldn't of gotten both Bregman and Imai, it won't even get Bregman..

Bichette and Gallen will likely combine for 40+, i just dont see them spending that high. 

I think theyll either spend 20 give or take on another SP and be done, or add a cheaper depth type SP and another bench bat totaling around 20 mil.

I think theyll cutoff payroll no more than lower 230s

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I would expect that anything that the Cubs do will not have those rumors. We never heard we were in contract negotiations with Imai but both Matt and Cerami have said today the Cubs thought they had him and then didn't.

It's more likely that we will hear light connections and then, boom, it will just drop. 

That what I always say, seems like they rarely sign or trade for a player that these writers have them rumored for cause it mostly speculations from them, it seems like they mostly acquire guys that nobody had being on the Cubs radar.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If Bregman and Cabrera go off the board too, there is almost no chance Jed is going to be win me over with whatever slop he pieces together.

At that point only a re-sign Kyle Tucker out of nowhere would be acceptable.

[mk49]

12 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

At that point only a re-sign Kyle Tucker out of nowhere would be acceptable.

I was actually thinking the same thing, but it's not very realistic.  Bellinger?  Bregman?  No, I don't think the Cubs get one of those guys.  Gallen, Gore or Cabrera?  Maybe, but less than likely.  I don't know what they will do, but I hope they get someone decent or better.  Again, I really hope I'm wrong.  

Edited January 5 by mk49

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

That what I always say, seems like they rarely sign or trade for a player that these writers have them rumored for cause it mostly speculations from them, it seems like they mostly acquire guys that nobody had being on the Cubs radar.

That isn’t at all what Jason said. He didn’t say they will sign someone no one talked about. He said if they sign a top guy it will come together all at once. You said they aren’t going to sign any major guys. For the record I agree with you that they will not end up with any if the top guys. 

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Bertz said:

They are inherently conservative, and they should be, but I'll say Steamer seems to really regress defense down to a nub. 

The Cubs have gotten a multi-win boost in the depth charts each of the last few years when they finish folding in ZiPS, and a large chunk of that is that ZiPS seems to actually acknowledge that Swanson and Hoerner are stellar defenders.

For Horton I'd guess the weak projection is the lack of strikeouts.   I do know Dan Szymborski said in a chat that ZiPS likes him a lot more than Steamer, but TBD what that exactly looks like.

Ya Horton's K/9 doesn't jive with the results last year.  He probably had some BABIP luck with great defense behind him, plus a pitchers ballpark.  There may obviously be some things xFIP and Steamer aren't factoring.

These projection systems should be generating the most likely outcomes with room for variance that's better or worse.  A 4.34 ERA projection seems a bit high though, but we fans might also be biased.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Hard not to be the case when they're linked to basically everyone

Every team with some money to spend should be "checking in on" every quality FA who has any chance to be useful to them.

I mean it takes just 1 phone call to Boras to check on the price of a bunch of guys.

[Stratos]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That isn’t at all what Jason said. He didn’t say they will sign someone no one talked about. He said if they sign a top guy it will come together all at once. You said they aren’t going to sign any major guys. For the record I agree with you that they will not end up with any if the top guys. 

Top guy they'd be most likely to sign would be the guy whose market ends up the weakest per their va.lue  My best guess is could be anyone except the top 2 guys Bichette and Tucker, since Dodgers and/or Jays should be in on them.

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, mk49 said:

I was actually thinking the same thing, but it's not very realistic.

I like how signing Kyle Tucker is "not very realistic" for the Cubs, but fans will still make sure to sell out Wrigley.

The Cubs are sitting on a decade old contract being their largest ever given out in it's history, a 92 win team, only 2 players currently committed to the 2027 payroll, and we as fans have to talk ourselves out of the 4th largest market signing the best players. Absolutely pathetic.

If they go into 2026 with a handful of marginal moves and maybe one fringe top move like Zac Gallen, I hope 2026 is an absolutely dumpster fire of a season. IMO, it would be the best thing to happen. No injuries, so there aren't any excuses. Just a pure 2023 Cardinals season of under performing garbage. Would love to see the fan reaction to a season like that after they refused to sign a Kyle Tucker following a 92 win season when they made a 1 year push for a playoff spot.

Edited January 5 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, chibears55 said:

That what I always say, seems like they rarely sign or trade for a player that these writers have them rumored for cause it mostly speculations from them, it seems like they mostly acquire guys that nobody had being on the Cubs radar.

Well, that's not what I said at all. I said that we'd likely be lightly connected to that player and then the finalized form of that would just, happen. For example, we were connected to Imai but there was no talk about how close things were. Both Cerami and Trueblood have reported that it was very close (note; not me giving them "they tried" points). So I think we should take away two things:
1. The Cubs "being connected" or these reports doesn't just mean the Cubs called once. It could, but it could mean more
2. If the Cubs sign someone, it'll probably be someone we've kind of heard about. 

I know things are pretty cynical right now, and the Cubs have probably given people a good reason to feel that way, but that the Cubs seem to be scouring the free agent market at the top of things is probably not the worst thing. They're getting connected still to Bichette, Bregman, Bellinger, after being connected to Imai, Cease, and Alonso. I don't know if they'll get any of them, but it's much better than not hearing they're sniffing in that direction, as well.

[thawv]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think the Cubs were shocked Shota took the QO. TBH, I am shocked they offered it to him. 

When they both declined their options, they were off the hook!  I was also in disbelief that they gave him a QO.  The only logical reason is they thought he would decline it and they would get that draft pick that Jed covets.  There was actually a report and a thread started on here that he was expected to decline it.  I was thinking, why would he turn down suck a huge raise?  

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, thawv said:

When they both declined their options, they were off the hook!  I was also in disbelief that they gave him a QO.  The only logical reason is they thought he would decline it and they would get that draft pick that Jed covets.  There was actually a report and a thread started on here that he was expected to decline it.  I was thinking, why would he turn down suck a huge raise?  

I agree. Once they offered it, I didn’t think for one minute that he wouldn’t take the one year deal. 

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, thawv said:

When they both declined their options, they were off the hook!  I was also in disbelief that they gave him a QO.  The only logical reason is they thought he would decline it and they would get that draft pick that Jed covets.  There was actually a report and a thread started on here that he was expected to decline it.  I was thinking, why would he turn down suck a huge raise?  

Or, maybe they believe they can get Imanaga back to the level he was and that last years velocity decline was tied to the leg injury. It's really not rocket science. There were even reports the Cubs were trying to sign him to a two-year thing. 

This narrative that Jed just haphazardly threw a QO on him just doesn't make sense. 

[thawv]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Or, maybe they believe they can get Imanaga back to the level he was and that last years velocity decline was tied to the leg injury. It's really not rocket science. There were even reports the Cubs were trying to sign him to a two-year thing. 

This narrative that Jed just haphazardly threw a QO on him just doesn't make sense. 

There isn't a logical baseball mind that would think for one second that he was going to turn down 22 million after the season he had.  Like i said, there was even a thread started on here that he was expected to turn it down.  Again, nobody in their right mind would think that he was going to turn it down. 

 

Either way, if Jed thought he was going to decline it, he was a fool.  If the thought it was a good idea to give him an 8 million raise after that season, he's a fool. 

 

Obviously, I hope he gets fixed. 

[CubinNY]

The offseason is far from unsalvageable. As is his pattern, Jed waits for the market to come to him. He takes whatever is left in the basket. I expect that they will have a payroll slightly under the luxury tax level. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

There isn't a logical baseball mind that would think for one second that he was going to turn down 22 million after the season he had.  Like i said, there was even a thread started on here that he was expected to turn it down.  Again, nobody in their right mind would think that he was going to turn it down. 

 

Either way, if Jed thought he was going to decline it, he was a fool.  If the thought it was a good idea to give him an 8 million raise after that season, he's a fool. 

 

Obviously, I hope he gets fixed. 

He didn't "give him an $8m raise". He declined their potion of his contract which was a 3 year extension and an increase in AAV, Shota then declined his portion of the contract.  The Cubs didn't want to guarantee him added money and years. Shota wanted to bet on himself. And the Cubs felt a 1/$22m contract for Imanaga was a worthwhile gamble in the likely event he accepted the QO. 

Again, this is not rocket science. We're talking out of both sides of our mouth with Jed Hoyer around here so often. People both want to claim he's too risk-adverse to make any sort of signing, but then also stupid enough to throw a QO at Shota Imanaga without thinking through the situation. That doesn't make sense.

Either he is risk-adverse and thought through it all, or he's not. 

[thawv]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

He didn't "give him an $8m raise". He declined their potion of his contract which was a 3 year extension and an increase in AAV, Shota then declined his portion of the contract.  The Cubs didn't want to guarantee him added money and years. Shota wanted to bet on himself. And the Cubs felt a 1/$22m contract for Imanaga was a worthwhile gamble in the likely event he accepted the QO. 

Again, this is not rocket science. We're talking out of both sides of our mouth with Jed Hoyer around here so often. People both want to claim he's too risk-adverse to make any sort of signing, but then also stupid enough to throw a QO at Shota Imanaga without thinking through the situation. That doesn't make sense.

He paid him 14 million in 2025.  Jed was off the hook to pay him anything at all.  The contract was void.  Then he gave him a QO of 22 million.  He accepted it and is now making 8 million more.  Anyway you look at it, that's a raise. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

He paid him 14 million in 2025.  Jed was off the hook to pay him anything at all.  The contract was void.  Then he gave him a QO of 22 million.  He accepted it and is now making 8 million more.  Anyway you look at it, that's a raise. 

Shota Imanaga is making $8m more next year, that is a "raise" but the Cubs didn't "give him a raise" - so let's talk in good faith here. The Cubs chose to spend $8m more in 2026 over giving him a 3 year, $57m extension. This allows them to try to fix him to Imanaga back to 2024 levels without committing to him for the next three-years if they can't. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The offseason is far from unsalvageable. As is his pattern, Jed waits for the market to come to him. He takes whatever is left in the basket. I expect that they will have a payroll slightly under the luxury tax level. 

It is definitely salvageable. The issue is how the FO goes about salvaging it. They really have to stop waiting for the market to drop and taking whoever falls to them. There is a huge difference in the word salvageable between the Cubs signing Bichette to an 8 year deal and completing a trade for Ryan or Canrera as opposed to them signing E. Suarez and Gallen to discount contracts with numerous opt outs. 

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Shota Imanaga is making $8m more next year, that is a "raise" but the Cubs didn't "give him a raise" - so let's talk in good faith here. The Cubs chose to spend $8m more in 2026 over giving him a 3 year, $57m extension. This allows them to try to fix him to Imanaga back to 2024 levels without committing to him for the next three-years if they can't. 

But that wasn't the option at all.  They chose to void the contract.  It was over.  It wasn't 3/57 or 1/22 at all and you know that.  It was 0/0 or 1/22. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, thawv said:

But that wasn't the option at all.  They chose to void the contract.  It was over.  It wasn't 3/57 or 1/22 at all and you know that.  It was 0/0 or 1/22. 

Here is what happened: 
1. The Cubs declined their option on a 3 year, $57m extension
2. Shota Imanaga declined his $15.25m option for 2026, making him a free agent
3. The Cubs offered him a QO, which is a one year, $22m deal. 

If the Cubs weren't okay with signing Imanaga to a $22m, one year deal, they wouldn't have offered it. That is "not a raise". The Cubs didn't offer Shota Imanaga more money; they followed the contract, and made a choice. At 1/$22m, Imanaga was fine value to this team.

Beyond that, you are moving the goalposts. Your original assertion is that Jed is a fool because obviously he was going to accept it and you think he did it just to get a late round comp pick. You and I both know the man is entirely value focused.

Maybe you wouldn't have extended him a 1/$22m deal - whatever. Who cares at this point. But I'm not going to sit here and have people twist everything to fit a narrative. When people want Hoyer to be intensely value-focused and unbudging they do that. When they want to bitch and moan about when he does something, they say he's a fool and an idiot who didn't think through the situation.

Pick a lane. Either Hoyer thought through the entire thing because he's intensely value focused, or he's a gunslinging fool. It can't be both.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Shota Imanaga is making $8m more next year, that is a "raise" but the Cubs didn't "give him a raise" - so let's talk in good faith here. The Cubs chose to spend $8m more in 2026 over giving him a 3 year, $57m extension. This allows them to try to fix him to Imanaga back to 2024 levels without committing to him for the next three-years if they can't. 

I agree with this. The issue with the 3/$57 was the years. I do think if they could have settled on a similar dollar amount but each year the team has an option, the Cubs would have done that. I also don’t think Jed only gave him the QO because he hoped he would decline and the Cubs would get an extra pick. I think he knew he would either take it or a deal for 2 or 3 years would be worked out before Shota had to reply. I’m not sure I like the decision Jed did make. But I do believe he didn’t just make it hoping Shota would leave.