Winter Doldrums Thread

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Here is what happened: 
1. The Cubs declined their option on a 3 year, $57m extension
2. Shota Imanaga declined his $15.25m option for 2026, making him a free agent
3. The Cubs offered him a QO, which is a one year, $22m deal. 

If the Cubs weren't okay with signing Imanaga to a $22m, one year deal, they wouldn't have offered it. That is "not a raise". The Cubs didn't offer Shota Imanaga more money; they followed the contract, and made a choice. At 1/$22m, Imanaga was fine value to this team.

Beyond that, you are moving the goalposts. Your original assertion is that Jed is a fool because obviously he was going to accept it and you think he did it just to get a late round comp pick. You and I both know the man is entirely value focused.

Maybe you wouldn't have extended him a 1/$22m deal - whatever. Who cares at this point. But I'm not going to sit here and have people twist everything to fit a narrative. When people want Hoyer to be intensely value-focused and unbudging they do that. When they want to bitch and moan about when he does something, they say he's a fool and an idiot who didn't think through the situation.

Pick a lane.

We see it exactly the same.  This is exactly what happened.  the Cubs made the choice to pay him 22 million after they owed him zero.  Jed wanted that draft pick.  He was wrong. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, thawv said:

We see it exactly the same.  This is exactly what happened.  the Cubs made the choice to pay him 22 million after they owed him zero.  Jed wanted that draft pick.  He was wrong. 

No. We don't. Jed didn't want the horsefeathers draft pick. Jed thought Imanaga at 1/$22m was fine value, and if Imanga wanted to continue to bet on himself, he would have accepted the draft pick. 

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No. We don't. Jed didn't want the horsefeathers draft pick. Jed thought Imanaga at 1/$22m was fine value, and if Imanga wanted to continue to bet on himself, he would have accepted the draft pick. 

Ok

[CubinNY]

You don't offer someone something you're not willing to give.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

Ok

To think Jed "wanted the draft pick" requires us to believe Jed Hoyer, the captain of value-focused signings, would have ignored everything that suggested it was likely he would accept it. It requires us to believe he was willing to gamble on a 1/$22m to get a comp-pick (one that would have been at the tail-end of the third round, a pick that while it has value, is not one that is great value). This is also why the report he was going to decline it was so surprising; everyone thought he was going to take it.

So either Jed is that clueless and is now a gambler, or he's the same very calculated guy. It cannot be both, but you clearly want it to be both to fit your narrative.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To think Jed "wanted the draft pick" requires us to believe Jed Hoyer, the captain of value-focused signings, would have ignored everything that suggested it was likely he would accept it. It requires us to believe he was willing to gamble on a 1/$22m to get a comp-pick (one that would have been at the tail-end of the third round, a pick that while it has value, is not one that is great value). This is also why the report he was going to decline it was so surprising; everyone thought he was going to take it.

So either Jed is that clueless and is now a gambler, or he's the same very calculated guy. It cannot be both, but you clearly want it to be both to fit your narrative.

If your narrative is Jed is an idiot and everything he does it wrong, then regardless of what Jed does, he messed up. I believe that is thawv’s, and a few other posters here, narrarive.

I didn’t agree with the Cubs extending the QO, but I don’t think they just did it hoping he would reject it and they would get a 3rd rd pick. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Well, that's not what I said at all. I said that we'd likely be lightly connected to that player and then the finalized form of that would just, happen. For example, we were connected to Imai but there was no talk about how close things were. Both Cerami and Trueblood have reported that it was very close (note; not me giving them "they tried" points). So I think we should take away two things:
1. The Cubs "being connected" or these reports doesn't just mean the Cubs called once. It could, but it could mean more
2. If the Cubs sign someone, it'll probably be someone we've kind of heard about. 

I know things are pretty cynical right now, and the Cubs have probably given people a good reason to feel that way, but that the Cubs seem to be scouring the free agent market at the top of things is probably not the worst thing. They're getting connected still to Bichette, Bregman, Bellinger, after being connected to Imai, Cease, and Alonso. I don't know if they'll get any of them, but it's much better than not hearing they're sniffing in that direction, as well.

Ok, I read it wrong...

As far as the connections goes and I know we disagree on it but I have felt for a couple years now that these rumors are based off of team needs, and what could fit and not 100% that they're actually sniffing so to speak on some of these players.

If there any sniffing being done it likely coming from Agents calling Hoyer to see if theres any interest.

That just how I feel when it comes to Hoyer and the Cubs adding anyone of significant at the deadline or offseason. 

 

 

[squally1313]

Didn't we just get done talking about Imai with a one year opt out was a non-starter because there's too many guys we have to replace after next year already? 

Like, Shota was clearly battling injuries all year, there's maybe an identified fix, whatever. I think we should be careful about appealing to authority in these conversations because then ultimately this all becomes even more moot than it already is ('if Jed thinks Shota at 1/22 or Gallen at 3/60 or whatever is a good value, then obviously it was a good move'). But taking 40% of your day one offseason budget and throwing it at a one year guy you evidently don't think highly enough of to give him multiple years in a non-free agency setting, and then spending the rest of the offseason worrying about the roster cliff doesn't really line up to me.  

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Shota Imanaga is making $8m more next year, that is a "raise" but the Cubs didn't "give him a raise" - so let's talk in good faith here. The Cubs chose to spend $8m more in 2026 over giving him a 3 year, $57m extension. This allows them to try to fix him to Imanaga back to 2024 levels without committing to him for the next three-years if they can't. 

Funny part will be is what if they do???

What if Imanaga goes out and pitches his ass off and puts up solid numbers and is now looking for a big contract, do we actually think the Cubs will offer him that type of contract to stay?  I dont

As far as QO goes, I dont think it was about trying to fix him, i think it was more about them needing to add a SP or two and they could either retain Imanaga on a 1 yr deal at a reasonable cost and maybe add another low cost SP, OR go out and bring in a Cease, Imai, etc that may cost a little more, or add one or two other mid 15-22 mil per guy on short year deals.

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Funny part will be is what if they do???

What if Imanaga goes out and pitches his ass off and puts up solid numbers and is now looking for a big contract, do we actually think the Cubs will offer him that type of contract to stay?  I dont

As far as QO goes, I dont think it was about trying to fix him, i think it was more about them needing to add a SP or two and they could either retain Imanaga on a 1 yr deal at a reasonable cost and maybe add another low cost SP, OR go out and bring in a Cease, Imai, etc that may cost a little more, or add one or two other mid 15-22 mil per guy on short year deals.

 

They probably won't. But I'm not sure that's a bad idea. Shota Imanaga will be 33-years-old next offseason and even if he has a top-30 year, we saw what a razor-thin line it is between top-30 Shota and "guy who might not start a playoff game". He probably isn't a great bet on a 3-4 year deal at that point, either.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

If your narrative is Jed is an idiot and everything he does it wrong, then regardless of what Jed does, he messed up. I believe that is thawv’s, and a few other posters here, narrarive.

I didn’t agree with the Cubs extending the QO, but I don’t think they just did it hoping he would reject it and they would get a 3rd rd pick. 

Until Jed proves us wrong, that's what I'm going to continue to believe.  He just doesn't have it in him to do what's best for the team.  I'm not sure if he knows what to do but just doesn't have it in him, or he doesn't know what to do.  There's a lot of Tom and Jed defenders in the fan base.  I'm not one of them. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Didn't we just get done talking about Imai with a one year opt out was a non-starter because there's too many guys we have to replace after next year already? 

Like, Shota was clearly battling injuries all year, there's maybe an identified fix, whatever. I think we should be careful about appealing to authority in these conversations because then ultimately this all becomes even more moot than it already is ('if Jed thinks Shota at 1/22 or Gallen at 3/60 or whatever is a good value, then obviously it was a good move'). But taking 40% of your day one offseason budget and throwing it at a one year guy you evidently don't think highly enough of to give him multiple years in a non-free agency setting, and then spending the rest of the offseason worrying about the roster cliff doesn't really line up to me.  

I mean I think the idea of not being able to do another one year deal after Imanaga tracks.  The fact is that Imanaga compounded those issues.  I don't think it's inconsistent to say "1 is not ideal but 2 is a Problem."

And yeah we'll see where payroll ends up but I do think if the plan is A) to do as much shopping as possible in FA and keep trades as a "break glass in emergency" sort of option and B) stay under the LT then tagging Shota was certainly an unforced error.  Hopefully one or both of those assumptions is bunk.  Trueblood's article yesterday implied the latter is.

I like Shota, and $22M is almost certainly a plus EV move in a world where Adrian Houser is $11M and multiple years.  But for a team that has Rea to set a floor and Steele/Wiggins/Brown to provide some reinforcements with ceiling the better move probably would have been to cheap out on one of the SPs and invest that in a better bat.  If we end up spending ~$50M on like Shota, Gallen, and Andujar I understand the thinking on each step of the process.  But I think, even if Tom's applying pressure to avoid super long term money, we'd have been better off with e.g. Gallen, a more legitimate infield bat like Jorge Polanco, and more of a swing SP like Soroka for that same money.

[Jason Ross]

55 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Didn't we just get done talking about Imai with a one year opt out was a non-starter because there's too many guys we have to replace after next year already? 

Like, Shota was clearly battling injuries all year, there's maybe an identified fix, whatever. I think we should be careful about appealing to authority in these conversations because then ultimately this all becomes even more moot than it already is ('if Jed thinks Shota at 1/22 or Gallen at 3/60 or whatever is a good value, then obviously it was a good move'). But taking 40% of your day one offseason budget and throwing it at a one year guy you evidently don't think highly enough of to give him multiple years in a non-free agency setting, and then spending the rest of the offseason worrying about the roster cliff doesn't really line up to me.  

I'm not necessarily saying it is or isn't a good move; there's real risk that Shota's fastball just doesn't get back. The appeal to authority is that the Cubs didn't do this willy-nilly or without knowledge that he would likely accept the QO - I don't think that's how the Cubs operate. I do think the Cubs knew what they were doing when they offered him a QO and they knew how likely it was he'd pick it up.

As it pertains to Shota the pitcher; there's obviously a pathway to be pretty damn good still; the Chris Langin twitter thread explains what and how that could look. I'm not entirely convinced it'll happen - we're at an age where it wouldn't be shocking to see it not bounce back and Shota seems like a razor-thin guy with the velocity. So I don't want to just say "the Cubs know best" with Shota on that aspect. I trust the team is a good org when it comes to pitching, but sometimes, it just doesn't matter how good you are (the Rays couldn't seem to fully figure out talented pitchers like Shane Baz and Taj Bradley, as an example and we know they're a good org for arms) it just doesn't happen. Shota could be a top-30 guy, or he could be "don't start me in the playoffs" guy or something between. 

Ultimately, it'll depend on what happens here on whether or not I think it was a definite mistake but there's enough wiggle room moving forward for me to really know either way. 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, thawv said:

Until Jed proves us wrong, that's what I'm going to continue to believe.  He just doesn't have it in him to do what's best for the team.  I'm not sure if he knows what to do but just doesn't have it in him, or he doesn't know what to do.  There's a lot of Tom and Jed defenders in the fan base.  I'm not one of them. 

In your mind, what does he have to do to prove you wrong? Is it win a WS or bust with you? They won 92 games after losing their top starting pitcher in April and their best hitter broke his hand in June and wasn’t the same after that. I am not suggesting he is a great POBO, but I also do not agree that he sucks. 

[Bertz]

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from this weekend.  Not a ton to take away but:

1. Gallen being a real target is basically the one firm thing they didn't really hedge on

2.  Mooney said "their heads were spinning" following all the trade rumors at the meetings and things have died off since.  He wonders if post holiday/post Imai some of those start regaining traction

3. Confirmed that the team doesn't especially love Valdez or Suarez, but hey if the options start dwindling don't say never

Otherwise it was mostly speculation and sounded like a conversation around here.  Still plenty left in FA, are they just hanging back to get a good deal in February?  Are they really going to go into the year with all three of Caissie/Mo/Alcantara rather than turn one into pitching?  It's easy to see how they could trade for a SP and sign a hitter, but is there opportunity to sign a SP and still get a good hitter?  They're clearly not sitting on a ton of private info at the moment.

[squally1313]

52 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not necessarily saying it is or isn't a good move; there's real risk that Shota's fastball just doesn't get back. The appeal to authority is that the Cubs didn't do this willy-nilly or without knowledge that he would likely accept the QO - I don't think that's how the Cubs operate. I do think the Cubs knew what they were doing when they offered him a QO and they knew how likely it was he'd pick it up.

As it pertains to Shota the pitcher; there's obviously a pathway to be pretty damn good still; the Chris Langin twitter thread explains what and how that could look. I'm not entirely convinced it'll happen - we're at an age where it wouldn't be shocking to see it not bounce back and Shota seems like a razor-thin guy with the velocity. So I don't want to just say "the Cubs know best" with Shota on that aspect. I trust the team is a good org when it comes to pitching, but sometimes, it just doesn't matter how good you are (the Rays couldn't seem to fully figure out talented pitchers like Shane Baz and Taj Bradley, as an example and we know they're a good org for arms) it just doesn't happen. Shota could be a top-30 guy, or he could be "don't start me in the playoffs" guy or something between. 

Ultimately, it'll depend on what happens here on whether or not I think it was a definite mistake but there's enough wiggle room moving forward for me to really know either way. 

I think, maybe oversimplifying, not offering Shota a three year deal but then offering him a one year deal, limits your downside and limits your upside, both in terms of what Shota can do for your team, and in terms of what your team can do overall. And that is absolutely a Jed calling card, and he's, in practicing this, taken very, very incremental steps over the last 5ish years to get us to a very good base of a roster, and he remains, to this day, which is not the end of the offseason, seemingly entirely unwilling to risk increasing downside for the potential of increasing upside. And while there's a separate, more Ricketts focused conversation on whether it should have taken as long as it did to get to the 2025 success, that's in the past, the core is there, and I would really, really prefer him starting taking swings, ideally a year ago. And the justifications for not doing it are getting tiring.

- We actually don't have as much money as we think because we had to totally overhaul the bullpen (again), because we've been unwilling to sign relievers to long term contracts (or develop them internally, Palencia maybe aside), and that's gotten us the 17th best fWAR bullpen and 11th best ERA bullpen in baseball over the last three years.

- We can't start throwing in opt outs because we have this huge roster cliff because we gave bridge extensions to guys like Happ and Hoerner and we signed a mid tier guy like Taillon to a mid length contract instead of a top level guy to a lengthy contract.

- We've built a very solid core of team controlled players through recent drafting skill and shrewd sell off trades during the aforementioned incremental steps of 2021-2024. Which is good, because besides them and Dansby, we have nothing to soften the blow of this roster cliff because we sat on $30m last offseason, then also didn't use it at the deadline, and seemingly made no real attempt to sign the elite guy they traded for. And yeah, maybe what they would have spent that money on would have sucked! We'll never know I guess. 

[ILMindState]

That is random....

[Irrelevant Dude]

That's a typo, he's actually the eating coach.

[Derwood]

Giants sign Caleb Killian to a minor league deal

[chibears55]

Are the Cubs just not spending anywhere this offseason 🙄🙄🙄

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2026/01/05/something-unusual-is-going-on-with-the-chicago-cubs-upcoming-international-free-agency-class/

[chibears55]

I know they have an estimate of it but i was wondering, if payroll an issue this offseason, could it be possible theyre waiting on the Arbs to see exactly where theyre at with payroll?  

🤷🤷🤷🤷

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I know they have an estimate of it but i was wondering, if payroll an issue this offseason, could it be possible theyre waiting on the Arbs to see exactly where theyre at with payroll?  

🤷🤷🤷🤷

They've made 5 signings in the bullpen totalling nearly $30M million, and multiple reports have them as the runner ups on Imai last week.

It's okay to not like what they're doing but this is weird?

[Outshined_One]

26 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Are the Cubs just not spending anywhere this offseason 🙄🙄🙄

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2026/01/05/something-unusual-is-going-on-with-the-chicago-cubs-upcoming-international-free-agency-class/

Jaims Martinez likely has something to do with this, and he's not on BA's list.  Jaims was supposed to sign last year with the Cubs (and was a really well-regarded prospect), but he ended up rolling over to 2026 and likely will sign a seven figure deal once the next signing period opens.

[chopsx9]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

They probably won't. But I'm not sure that's a bad idea. Shota Imanaga will be 33-years-old next offseason and even if he has a top-30 year, we saw what a razor-thin line it is between top-30 Shota and "guy who might not start a playoff game". He probably isn't a great bet on a 3-4 year deal at that point, either.

Is there any chance Shota let them know he's thinking about returning to Japan after next season?

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Is there any chance Shota let them know he's thinking about returning to Japan after next season?

I mean maybe but I don't really buy he's headed back.