Cubs (Imanaga) v s Yankees (Warren): 7/13/25, 12:35pm

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Nice to win 2 of 3 after than MIN series. Boyd/Imanaga looked legit dominating

2 of 3 in NY is nice.  And nice way to end before the break. 

On pace for 96 wins, what a good 1st half.

Edited July 13, 2025 by Stratos

[cl smooth]

You’re welcome. 

[CUBDOM4life]

Giants tied the Dodgers in the 9th. Cubs have a chance to go into the ASB with best record in the NL

[UMFan83]

Damn, Dodgers didnt score in the top of the 10th and the Giants had the top of their order up but didnt score.  Devers just missed a walk off hit.

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Imanaga definitely had more juice today, just a great win, and a really good road trip.  Love the way they stole a run, that's what good aggressive teams do.  Once again, horsefeathers the Brewers, they'll be in LA after the break wouldn't be that surprising if the Dodgers return the favor and sweep.

I ain't gonna lie I was legit concerned after his last start.  The Twins were hitting rockets all over the joint - it was a minor miracle he only gave up two runs.  But man he was money today.  Made Judge look silly.

As for the Brewers they are gonna be tough all year with that starting staff the have but they ain't keeping up the pace they are on now - baseball has a way. 

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

xBA takes a look at what percentage of balls hit with a specific exit velocity and launch angle end up being hits. 

So if 100 players hit the exact same line drive as Dansby did his last AB, 57 of them would have gotten a hit. Mostly because a line drive hit that hard is really hard to get to unless it’s hit right at or near a fielder.  

OK,  but how exactly do they know 57 of them would of been a hit for sure ?

Isn't that just an assumption to think that if Swanson hit that ball exactly the way he did 99 more times that it would fall in 57 times and not fielded ?  I just find that hard to accept because a fielder is likely going to play him the same way  and will likely be positioned to field that ball.

I just want to know how they know for sure that that ball will drop 57% of time?

 

[CUBDOM4life]

35 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Damn, Dodgers didnt score in the top of the 10th and the Giants had the top of their order up but didnt score.  Devers just missed a walk off hit.

Followed in the next half inning by the Dodgers two garbage bloop singles and a dropped throw at 1st. I feel like I just got done watching a Brewers game

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

OK,  but how exactly do they know 57 of them would of been a hit for sure ?

Isn't that just an assumption to think that if Swanson hit that ball exactly the way he did 99 more times that it would fall in 57 times and not fielded ?  I just find that hard to accept because a fielder is likely going to play him the same way  and will likely be positioned to field that ball.

I just want to know how they know for sure that that ball will drop 57% of time?

 

I think, and this is being sent off half assed from my phone, the theory is that you can’t really control the direction of where you hit…right at the SS or through the hole or up the middle or whatever, the idea is just to hit it hard. And if you take out direction, you have thousands of data points of balls in play at a certain exit velocity and launch angle and how those ended up. It’s probably more nuanced than that, but I think big picture there have been thousands of balls hit at 105 mph at that launch angle (ish) and, historically, 57% of them have resulted in hits. 

[KCCub]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

OK,  but how exactly do they know 57 of them would of been a hit for sure ?

Isn't that just an assumption to think that if Swanson hit that ball exactly the way he did 99 more times that it would fall in 57 times and not fielded ?  I just find that hard to accept because a fielder is likely going to play him the same way  and will likely be positioned to field that ball.

I just want to know how they know for sure that that ball will drop 57% of time?

 

“Here's how it works:

• Each batted ball is assigned an xBA based on how often similar batted balls, categorized by exit velocity, launch angle, and since 2019, Sprint Speed for certain instances, have historically resulted in hits since Statcast's league-wide implementation in 2015.
• For example, a batted ball with a particular exit velocity and launch angle that has historically resulted in a hit 70% of the time will have an xBA of .700.
• A player's seasonal xBA is calculated by totaling the xBA of each batted ball event and including actual strikeout numbers. 

This means Statcast's xBA evaluates a player's performance based on the quality of their contact, using historical data to estimate the probability of each batted ball becoming a hit.”

Edited July 14, 2025 by KCCub

[chibears55]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think, and this is being sent off half assed from my phone, the theory is that you can’t really control the direction of where you hit…right at the SS or through the hole or up the middle or whatever, the idea is just to hit it hard. And if you take out direction, you have thousands of data points of balls in play at a certain exit velocity and launch angle and how those ended up. It’s probably more nuanced than that, but I think big picture there have been thousands of balls hit at 105 mph at that launch angle (ish) and, historically, 57% of them have resulted in hits. 

OK, I can buy that example if that how they're coming up with their numbers by using past results of balls hit that hard and in that exact location. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chibears55]

17 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

“Here's how it works:

• Each batted ball is assigned an xBA based on how often similar batted balls, categorized by exit velocity, launch angle, and since 2019, Sprint Speed for certain instances, have historically resulted in hits since Statcast's league-wide implementation in 2015.
• For example, a batted ball with a particular exit velocity and launch angle that has historically resulted in a hit 70% of the time will have an xBA of .700.
• A player's seasonal xBA is calculated by totaling the xBA of each batted ball event and including actual strikeout numbers. 

This means Statcast's xBA evaluates a player's performance based on the quality of their contact, using historical data to estimate the probability of each batted ball becoming a hit.”

KC it hard to see your response 

[squally1313]

Just now, chibears55 said:

OK, I can buy that example if that how they're coming up with their numbers by using past results of balls hit that hard and in that exact location. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t think it’s exact location, just velocity and angle. There’s probably an aspect of distance in there, with launch angle giving you a rough approximation of how long the ball is in the air. I honestly don’t know if it’s a skill to hit a line drive to the gap vs at the corner outfielder, but I don’t think it’s really a thing you can do regularly. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

OK, I can buy that example if that how they're coming up with their numbers by using past results of balls hit that hard and in that exact location. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They are not saying the ball is hit in that exact location. If the ball is hit as hard as Swanson hit it with the same launch angle and hit to the exact spot he hit it, 100 balls hit like that would all be outs. Why are you being so hard headed about this? Bottom line is all a ballplayers can try to do is hit the ball hard and in the air. If he does that he did a good job, regardless of it it is caught. A ball hit that hard with that launch angle results I. An actual hit 57% of the time. That is making great contract. He can’t help it went right to someone. 

[cubfansince77]

4 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Even Kahnle, who's been absolute money for Tigers, can blow up - 3 batters faced, 2 HR's, no one retired.  Mariners with 3 runs, still no outs and a runner on 2nd.

M's put up 30 runs in the series at Wrigley with Raleigh going off among others. They can rake that's for sure: just put up 35 runs in sweeping Detroit in Motown this weekend. 

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, cubfansince77 said:

M's put up 30 runs in the series at Wrigley with Raleigh going off among others. They can rake that's for sure: just put up 35 runs in sweeping Detroit in Motown this weekend. 

You'd think they'd be better than 50-45, most especially with the likes of Gilbert, Woo, Castillo, Kirby and a decent pen.  I may be wrong, and I've been wrong many times, however, I'd rather have the Brewers chasing the Cubs.  Then say, the Mariners, Yankees, Phillies or Padres, these teams don't have the offensive deficiencies of the Brewers.  They're not counting on the likes Andrew Vaughn to win games. 

[gflore34]

9 minutes ago, cubfansince77 said:

M's put up 30 runs in the series at Wrigley with Raleigh going off among others. They can rake that's for sure: just put up 35 runs in sweeping Detroit in Motown this weekend. 

Also exposed the Tigers a bit, Tigers bull pen is a little shaky - thought I heard their announcers say something about them not missing many bats.  And their lineup is a bat short, Zach McKinstry is leading them in WAR among non-pitchers maybe, he's an over performing veteran.  But he's never had this kind of success over a larger sample size so, I guess we'll see.

[cubfansince77]

15 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Also exposed the Tigers a bit, Tigers bull pen is a little shaky - thought I heard their announcers say something about them not missing many bats.  And their lineup is a bat short, Zach McKinstry is leading them in WAR among non-pitchers maybe, he's an over performing veteran.  But he's never had this kind of success over a larger sample size so, I guess we'll see.

You are spot on 34. I live in Michigan and the Tigers are my 2nd favorite team. They are leaking oil in the bullpen and need multiple arms there plus they absolutely need another starter too so it will be interesting at the deadline. They've feasted on a very weak AL Central to this point. Tiger fans don't wanna admit it but that division is brutal. It's Detroit and everyone else. Cleveland and Minny are decent but won't contend this year. Scott Harris of the Tigers has some holes to fill but they are a top two team in the AL along with Houston.

[JHBulls]

4 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

I guess we could spend time with our wives.

She’s connected to my wrist. 

[BKHoo]

Wow the Holliday family is probably not as happy as they thought they would be tonight. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

They are not saying the ball is hit in that exact location. If the ball is hit as hard as Swanson hit it with the same launch angle and hit to the exact spot he hit it, 100 balls hit like that would all be outs. Why are you being so hard headed about this? Bottom line is all a ballplayers can try to do is hit the ball hard and in the air. If he does that he did a good job, regardless of it it is caught. A ball hit that hard with that launch angle results I. An actual hit 57% of the time. That is making great contract. He can’t help it went right to someone. 

I just have a hard time understanding how they know for sure that it will result in a hit 57% of the time.

I have no problem with telling a hitter great job you hit the ball hard keep it up cause eventually they'll start dropping, I just dont get how they come up with these percentages.

No biggie 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

I just have a hard time understanding how they know for sure that it will result in a hit 57% of the time.

I have no problem with telling a hitter great job you hit the ball hard keep it up cause eventually they'll start dropping, I just dont get how they come up with these percentages.

No biggie 

Statcast has been live for a decade, there's 2400 MLB games a year, and your typical game has 40-50 balls in play.

There are A LOT of comps for nearly any given batted ball.

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I just have a hard time understanding how they know for sure that it will result in a hit 57% of the time.

I have no problem with telling a hitter great job you hit the ball hard keep it up cause eventually they'll start dropping, I just dont get how they come up with these percentages.

No biggie 

All of the historical data they’ve collected estimates that if the ball comes off of his bat at 104 mph at that specific launch angle, it will result in a hit 57/100 times. 43/100 times that ball is hit straight at a defender for an out as we saw  With Dansby.

His XBA on that swing would be a lot lower if they calculated it based on location of hit and where the fielder is positioned, which I think is what’s confusing you.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Soul]

It’s been a great first half of the season.  Plus we’re catching Boston at the perfect time to start the 2nd half.

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

They are not saying the ball is hit in that exact location. If the ball is hit as hard as Swanson hit it with the same launch angle and hit to the exact spot he hit it, 100 balls hit like that would all be outs. Why are you being so hard headed about this? Bottom line is all a ballplayers can try to do is hit the ball hard and in the air. If he does that he did a good job, regardless of it it is caught. A ball hit that hard with that launch angle results I. An actual hit 57% of the time. That is making great contract. He can’t help it went right to someone. 

Fielder positioning isn’t part of the equation which is where you’re lost. If he hits that 120 mph with a higher launch angle that xBA is 1000. Hence 43% of the time Dansby’s hard contact is caught by an outfielder. 
 

Tagged you by accident.

Edited July 14, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

11 hours ago, cubfansince77 said:

You are spot on 34. I live in Michigan and the Tigers are my 2nd favorite team. They are leaking oil in the bullpen and need multiple arms there plus they absolutely need another starter too so it will be interesting at the deadline. They've feasted on a very weak AL Central to this point. Tiger fans don't wanna admit it but that division is brutal. It's Detroit and everyone else. Cleveland and Minny are decent but won't contend this year. Scott Harris of the Tigers has some holes to fill but they are a top two team in the AL along with Houston.

I live in Michigan as well and like the Tigers, no doubt they're a quality team.  I like their top three of Skubal, of course, Mize and Olsen, bullpen and their lineup could stand some upgrades.