Winter Meetings thread

[SOFNR]

I'd be very excited for for Tucker but I don't see how adding Tucker, subtracting Paredes, Bellinger, and adding any of the rumored pitchers is going to put them near a 90 win projection. It's going to take more then that.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

So you believe that in Jed's last year, or at least it appears that it is, Tom is going to just sign a 350-400 million dollar guy for 10+ years?  I'd have to disagree with this.  I WANT Tucker, but I want him long term.  And yes, I'd love him for one year, but it's going to suck to lose him. 

How are you disagreeing with this? You do know, just last night, we both agreed that a Tucker trade would signal the Cubs would earnestly attempt to sign Kyle Tucker. Why, just 12 hours later, do you think this won't happen? 

I think Jed Hoyer is more than aware of what he's allowed to offer on an extension here. I also think he's more than understanding of what Kyle Tucker's market value is and what it'd take to get him to seriously consider an offer. And I think that there's an earnest and sincere market value offer that will be given to Kyle Tucker. He may not take it, but I do think that the goal is to extend him and there's an understanding of what it will take.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Levine reported cubs need to eat 5-7mil for belli to go to yanks

Shouldn't be a problem. Jed has no problem lighting that much money on fire. He voluntarily did it 2 years in a row with the Mancini deal. I think it's probably more to do with the player they are getting back. They might want a throw in with Warren.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Levine reported cubs need to eat 5-7mil for belli to go to yanks

I was thinking about this.  I don't know the answer here, but can the Cubs pay the 5 million opt out money if Cody opts out?  That opt out money would count against the 2026 payroll.   And if he doesn't opt out, the Cubs to send over 5 million for this season. 

[s2obed]

Would love Tucker but for one year? Not my preferred option. Who is his agent? 

[Cuzi]

Just now, s2obed said:

Would love Tucker but for one year? Not my preferred option. Who is his agent? 

Excel Sports Management

[KCCub]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Excel Sports Management

Who also represents Dansby 

[17 Seconds]

i'm not saying this to be pessimistic or anything, but i wonder what their plan B is if they miss on tucker

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

I'd be very excited for for Tucker but I don't see how adding Tucker, subtracting Paredes, Bellinger, and adding any of the rumored pitchers is going to put them near a 90 win projection. It's going to take more then that.

You'd be surprised by how much of a difference having an actual run producer makes. However, I don't think they will make this trade unless Houston backs off their asking price. But is likely more about Smith/Shaw than it is about Parades. To me it makes more sense that they would be looking for OF + pitching, but what do I know? 

[Derwood]

Houston saying no to Paredes and Beliinger is WILD

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

I was thinking about this.  I don't know the answer here, but can the Cubs pay the 5 million opt out money if Cody opts out?  That opt out money would count against the 2026 payroll.   And if he doesn't opt out, the Cubs to send over 5 million for this season. 

Just make believe the 5mil is purchasing Warren and yanks are on the hook for bellis deal

Edited December 13, 2024 by LBiittner
Double post

[KCCub]

Just now, Derwood said:

Houston saying no to Paredes and Beliinger is WILD

They want to compete next year, but they also want to restock their farm. Paredes + prospects helps with both. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, SOFNR said:

I'd be very excited for for Tucker but I don't see how adding Tucker, subtracting Paredes, Bellinger, and adding any of the rumored pitchers is going to put them near a 90 win projection. It's going to take more then that.

Well, it sure seems like they are ready to run with Shaw. They will have $ for a significant pitching upgrade. If PCA keeps playing at a 4-5 WAR pace, and the Catcher position isn't a black hole, then that should be a substantial increase. I feel like Paredes has a high probability to underperform projections as well because of Wrigley. Plus this opens some room for the kids to get integrated.

 

I think it's possible Brown is holding out for Smith while Jed is trying to get him to take Alcantara or Caissie. It sure seems like Shaw is untouchable in Jed's eyes.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i'm not saying this to be pessimistic or anything, but i wonder what their plan B is if they miss on tucker

God I hope it isn't the Polar Bear

[Cuzi]

To me I still want a little something in return with a deal around Paredes + Smith. That's two 3B going to the Astros and I feel thats an overpay for Tucker given what it took to get Juan Soto for 1 year. Michael King wasnt 2024 King at the time of the trade and he only had 2 years and Thorpe was a 50-100 prospect. Paredes is arguably a better player than King with 1 more year of control and Smith is probably damn close to popping into the top 100 and Tucker aint Soto.

Is there anything to like about someone like Zach Dezenzo being thrown in by the Astros? Hit tool is a big question mark but the power stands out and the glove seems at least on Paredes level.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Houston saying no to Paredes and Beliinger is WILD

It doesn't make sense for the Cubs to offer this, doesn't make sense for the Astros to accept it, and based on the source probably was never offered or turned down.

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

God I hope it isn't the Polar Bear

Like Dominic Smith, Jed has had a weird obsession with Alonso too. Would hate it

[jersey cubs fan]

16 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Levine reported cubs need to eat 5-7mil for belli to go to yanks

[SOFNR]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Well, it sure seems like they are ready to run with Shaw. They will have $ for a significant pitching upgrade. If PCA keeps playing at a 4-5 WAR pace, and the Catcher position isn't a black hole, then that should be a substantial increase. I feel like Paredes has a high probability to underperform projections as well because of Wrigley. Plus this opens some room for the kids to get integrated.

 

I think it's possible Brown is holding out for Smith while Jed is trying to get him to take Alcantara or Caissie. It sure seems like Shaw is untouchable in Jed's eyes.

Oh yah, I'm not trying to discourage the idea of Tucker at all. I think it's their best road. I also think there are added benefits to having that real stud in a lineup as well. But I saw multiple posts talking about being near 90 wins. On paper atleast Tucker/Shaw is adding maybe 1.5 wins compared to Paredes/Bellinger. I'd still be hoping for atleast a pitcher in the Castillo range, one very good bullpen guy, someone to play a little third. And that's still unlikely to get us projected to 90. Although I'd be very optimistic about it.

[Petrey10]

I mean I think paredes for Tucker is an improvement by a win or two… but we leave the gaping hole at 3B we just filled. Idk how I feel about that.

 

just trade Belli and eat the $5 mill. Suzuki starts in RF.

 

you get tucker and then does that make Suzuki mad and hurt our chances with Sasaki?

 

idk I guess I just don’t trust Jed to do the right thing at this point. That’s where I’m at.

[thawv]

24 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Maybe, just maybe, Tom doesn't actually care about the contract lengths. He has a budget he expects his FO to operate by and he knows the team is a cash cow. If it comes down to it, he trusts that the FO can move a contract if needed. Tom seems very much a hands-off owner now. Jed can do practically whetever he wants with that budget, and both parties have repeatedly said the money is there.

Tom has gone on record saying he does not like long term contracts. 

I think that Jed can do whatever he wants within the perimeters Tom has laid down.  I think there only two thing Jed can't do without permission.  Go over the budget, and sign a long term contract. 

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Exactly, this is what we have to deal with as fans of a team run with a small market mentality 

Yep, that small market Yankee team who took on Soto for one year should have known better. Not knowing if a guy will sign an extension when he is traded for, happens to all teams. I really don’t think Jed is going to do this deal unless he knows the Cubs will at least be willing to go all out for Tucker. And that is not $/$224 or something like that. He has to know it will be longer and probably higher annually and also know Tom will allow it. 

[Tryptamine]

27 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Levine reported cubs need to eat 5-7mil for belli to go to yanks

Honestly don't think this is so bad if the prospect coming back is decent. Obviously not a top 100 guy, but a guy that ends up in their 10-15 range. If they just want a straight salary dump with nothing coming back and the Cubs eating 7M, then go pound sand.

[thawv]

26 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

How are you disagreeing with this? You do know, just last night, we both agreed that a Tucker trade would signal the Cubs would earnestly attempt to sign Kyle Tucker. Why, just 12 hours later, do you think this won't happen? 

I think Jed Hoyer is more than aware of what he's allowed to offer on an extension here. I also think he's more than understanding of what Kyle Tucker's market value is and what it'd take to get him to seriously consider an offer. And I think that there's an earnest and sincere market value offer that will be given to Kyle Tucker. He may not take it, but I do think that the goal is to extend him and there's an understanding of what it will take.

My contention has always been that an extension won't happen.  I agree that they will try to extend him.  Which leads me to ask you this.  What do you think an extension would have to look like to sign him?

 

How much is Jed going to be allowed to do in his lame duck season?  Tucker plus a great pitcher would make us clear favorites in our division.  I just don't want to lose Tucker after this season.

 

I'm also starting feel the excitement of obtaining Tucker, even if we do end up losing him.  So for the record, I want them to trade for him.  I want even more for them to extend him.  That's the part I don't have faith in.  But I admit that one year of Tucker is better than not having him. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

My contention has always been that an extension won't happen.  I agree that they will try to extend him.  Which leads me to ask you this.  What do you think an extension would have to look like to sign him?

 

How much is Jed going to be allowed to do in his lame duck season?  Tucker plus a great pitcher would make us clear favorites in our division.  I just don't want to lose Tucker after this season.

 

I'm also starting feel the excitement of obtaining Tucker, even if we do end up losing him.  So for the record, I want them to trade for him.  I want even more for them to extend him.  That's the part I don't have faith in.  But I admit that one year of Tucker is better than not having him. 

I don't think Jed's status matters when it comes to Tucker. Tucker is a guy you want regardless. 

I think an extension for him is looking like an extension until his age-40 season, with an AAV in the $38-$42m range. So, 11/12 years at that AAV. Maybe some sort of an opt-out/escalation thing we've seen with Cole/Soto recently too, where he can opt-out but the Cubs can trigger an escalation and pay him a bit more.