Winter Meetings thread

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Best case scenario for Smith is what....mid-2026? I think when the prospect is that far away you don't really worry about redundancy. 

Exactly. 

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

Well looking at Toronto having just about zero chance of making the playoffs, and a crazy high payroll for a team with no chance, I'd be looking to dump his salary, along with 3 other expiring contracts.  The reason I think Vlad would be a little less return is because his salary is so much more than Tucker.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving up much for a rental that's not going to win the WS for us.  Also, there's no chance of an extension for Tucker.  I'm missing something here that most are seeing.  How it Tucker going to help the team after 2025?  Is he going to put us in the WS? 

Cubs are an 83 win team in back to back years talking about a deal that would net them 2 wins on paper, if Bellinger stayed. They wouldn't be thinking about this trade if they believed there was no chance to extend Tucker. Probably the only reason Tucker hasnt been extended already is because hes on the Astros, who doesnt go beyond 5 years.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Cuzi

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Well looking at Toronto have just about zero chance of making the playoffs, and a crazy high payroll for a team with no chance, I'd bee looking to dump his salary, along with 3 other expiring contracts.  The reason I think Vlad would be a little return is because his salary is so much more than Tucker.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving up much for a rental that's not going to win the WS for us.  Also, there's not chance of an extension for Tucker.  I'm missing something here that most are seeing.  How it Tucker going to help the team after 2025?  Is he going to put us in the WS? 

Right now, 2025 odds are better with than without. Potentially jeds last year, his last chance for romance. 

Molly & Haugh brought up a good point. This deal could be driven by Counsell. Counsell has had front office experience in the past. He understands how the process works. I'm sure jed feels the urgency at hand

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

Well looking at Toronto have just about zero chance of making the playoffs, and a crazy high payroll for a team with no chance, I'd bee looking to dump his salary, along with 3 other expiring contracts.  The reason I think Vlad would be a little return is because his salary is so much more than Tucker.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving up much for a rental that's not going to win the WS for us.  Also, there's not chance of an extension for Tucker.  I'm missing something here that most are seeing.  How it Tucker going to help the team after 2025?  Is he going to put us in the WS? 

Come on thawv. If the Cubs got Tucker and then got another starting pitcher you don’t see this as a 90 win team? Really? I do. And if you get into the playoffs with a solid team you can win. I mean do you just do nothing and sit in the corner because the Dodgers and Mets take all the good players? I mean what is the point then. Do you rally think these prospects will even be so good that they are better than the Dodgers or Mets on any given year? I also think you are being ridiculous with this idea at Jed knows he would sign Tucker after this year. They very well might not sign him, but I am sure he knows about what the cost will be and has the ok to go there with him. I am sure he isn’t just doing this knowing it is one year. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, thawv said:

Well looking at Toronto having just about zero chance of making the playoffs, and a crazy high payroll for a team with no chance, I'd be looking to dump his salary, along with 3 other expiring contracts.  The reason I think Vlad would be a little less return is because his salary is so much more than Tucker.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving up much for a rental that's not going to win the WS for us.  Also, there's no chance of an extension for Tucker.  I'm missing something here that most are seeing.  How it Tucker going to help the team after 2025?  Is he going to put us in the WS? 

As we discussed yesterday, and both agreed on - this is likely with an eye towards legitimately extending Tucker as much as it is in 2025. We can debate how likely that will be, but I don't think this is simply a desperation-job-saving-attempt at a rental, but an attempt to build a team around Tucker now and in the future. 

[17 Seconds]

this sounds all wrong, but who knows

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Right now, 2025 odds are better with than without. Potentially jeds last year, his last chance for romance. 

Molly & Haugh brought up a good point. This deal could be driven by Counsell. Counsell has had front office experience in the past. He understands how the process works. I'm sure jed feels the urgency at hand

I'm more referring to the issue of Tucker being a one year rental.  I'm not a fan of giving up our 3B AND his replacement to a rental.  I know that Shaw will then take over, but then we lose Tucker and Belli.  Tucker is going to test the FA market, and Ricketts has shown us that he's not in the market for 350-400 million dollar deals, or 10+ year deals.  I'd LOVE Tucker on this team, but I'd hate to see him walk after the season, which is what's going to happen. 

[Cuzi]

What sounds wrong? That all sounds reasonable in both offers and rejection.

[17 Seconds]

Just now, Cuzi said:

What sounds wrong? That all sounds reasonable in both offers and rejection.

it sounds wrong because it goes against what everyone has been reporting for days

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, thawv said:

Well looking at Toronto having just about zero chance of making the playoffs, and a crazy high payroll for a team with no chance, I'd be looking to dump his salary, along with 3 other expiring contracts.  The reason I think Vlad would be a little less return is because his salary is so much more than Tucker.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving up much for a rental that's not going to win the WS for us.  Also, there's no chance of an extension for Tucker.  I'm missing something here that most are seeing.  How it Tucker going to help the team after 2025?  Is he going to put us in the WS? 

I don't want this to come off as too mean but this happens a lot.  And I think the reason is you dig in and refuse to update your priors despite new evidence.  You believe Thing A and then have to tie yourself into knots supporting it rather than accepting that it's either no longer true or potentially never was.

[Cuzi]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

it sounds wrong because it goes against what everyone has been reporting for days

Does it? That is the first report I've seen for a Phillies offer. I just posted an article that suggests the Yankees arent offering anything the Astros want and they "want" Gil. And Suzuki does have a NTC that he can refuse to waive.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

this sounds all wrong, but who knows

Philips is Steve Philips right?  So this is very much a "two ******s talking to each other and saying exactlyyyyy" deal

[17 Seconds]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Does it?

yes. the names potentially going to houston have primarily been suzuki/paredes/smith, with some mentions of them wanting shaw. the bellinger rumors have almost all been about NY.

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Come on thawv. If the Cubs got Tucker and then got another starting pitcher you don’t see this as a 90 win team? Really? I do. And if you get into the playoffs with a solid team you can win. I mean do you just do nothing and sit in the corner because the Dodgers and Mets take all the good players? I mean what is the point then. Do you rally think these prospects will even be so good that they are better than the Dodgers or Mets on any given year? I also think you are being ridiculous with this idea at Jed knows he would sign Tucker after this year. They very well might not sign him, but I am sure he knows about what the cost will be and has the ok to go there with him. I am sure he isn’t just doing this knowing it is one year. 

I think if the Cubs had Tucker and signed to great pitcher, I think they'd be a low 90's win team.  Is it a playoff team?  Of course.  My concern is 2026 and on.  For the record, I'd LOVE Tucker on this team for 10 years.  I'd LOVE him in 2025.  I don't love losing him AND not having the players that we gave up for him.

This is Jed's last season, so he might do things differently than his usual close to the vest moves.  I guess we'll see.  

I wish we could be sure that a Tucker extension was a legit chance.  But it's just not what Ricketts allows. 

[Jason Ross]

Honestly. none of that sounds crazy. It's been reported that the Astros don't want Bellinger. It's been reported that the Yankees want the Cubs to eat some money. It's been reported that Suzuki would only be interested in going to specific places. Been reported that the Cubs don't want to trade Shaw. 

Ultimately, I think most of that checks. And most of it feels like running on old information from two guys who are usually pretty out of the loop to begin with.

[Cuzi]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

yes. the names potentially going to houston have primarily been suzuki/paredes/smith, with some mentions of them wanting shaw. the bellinger rumors have almost all been about NY.

Ok, but how does that refute a report that they offered Paredes + Bellinger at one point and it was rejected? Just because talks are on going with certain players does not mean those players have been officially offered up in trade.

[Brian707]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

I wish we could be sure that a Tucker extension was a legit chance.  But it's just not what Ricketts allows. 

Exactly, this is what we have to deal with as fans of a team run with a small market mentality 

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Honestly. none of that sounds crazy. It's been reported that the Astros don't want Bellinger. It's been reported that the Yankees want the Cubs to eat some money. It's been reported that Suzuki would only be interested in going to specific places. Been reported that the Cubs don't want to trade Shaw. 

Ultimately, I think most of that checks. And most of it feels like running on old information from two guys who are usually pretty out of the loop to begin with.

exactly, so i doub the trade talk would have gotten this far with this many rumors if the cubs were offering paredes/bellinger for tucker. that feels like old or wrong information

[thawv]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

As we discussed yesterday, and both agreed on - this is likely with an eye towards legitimately extending Tucker as much as it is in 2025. We can debate how likely that will be, but I don't think this is simply a desperation-job-saving-attempt at a rental, but an attempt to build a team around Tucker now and in the future. 

So you believe that in Jed's last year, or at least it appears that it is, Tom is going to just sign a 350-400 million dollar guy for 10+ years?  I'd have to disagree with this.  I WANT Tucker, but I want him long term.  And yes, I'd love him for one year, but it's going to suck to lose him. 

[thawv]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't want this to come off as too mean but this happens a lot.  And I think the reason is you dig in and refuse to update your priors despite new evidence.  You believe Thing A and then have to tie yourself into knots supporting it rather than accepting that it's either no longer true or potentially never was.

Fair enough!

 

If they trade for Tucker, do they give him an extension?  

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

exactly, so i doub the trade talk would have gotten this far with this many rumors if the cubs were offering paredes/bellinger for tucker. that feels like old or wrong information

Right. Like I said, I think they're just running with information from days ago. So I don't think it's wrong, it's just two guys who are out of the loop discussing information that's old. Which checks out, when you really think of it. 

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Ok, but how does that refute a report that they offered Paredes + Bellinger at one point and it was rejected? Just because talks are on going with certain players does not mean those players have been officially offered up in trade.

the report made it sound like that's as far as the talks went, which i don't believe. i don't think they'd have gotten this far in negotiations with this much smoke if that's all that happened. if that was a serious offer by the cubs, it's probably old news or incorrect

[LBiittner]

Levine reported cubs need to eat 5-7mil for belli to go to yanks

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Fair enough!

 

If they trade for Tucker, do they give him an extension?  

Probably

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

So you believe that in Jed's last year, or at least it appears that it is, Tom is going to just sign a 350-400 million dollar guy for 10+ years?  I'd have to disagree with this.  I WANT Tucker, but I want him long term.  And yes, I'd love him for one year, but it's going to suck to lose him. 

Maybe, just maybe, Tom doesn't actually care about the contract lengths. He has a budget he expects his FO to operate by and he knows the team is a cash cow. If it comes down to it, he trusts that the FO can move a contract if needed. Tom seems very much a hands-off owner now. Jed can do practically whetever he wants with that budget, and both parties have repeatedly said the money is there.