Winter Meetings thread

[CubinNY]

I'm not on social media any longer. Can we split Bellinger and Tucker off this thread and make one for updates only?

And people can talk about an extension or whatever here? But Jed is not an idiot. He's not signing Tucker unless he has an idea of what it would cost to get a long term contract done. I know that won't stop the inane back and forth, but that is that. 

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think Jed's status matters when it comes to Tucker. Tucker is a guy you want regardless. 

I think an extension for him is looking like an extension until his age-40 season, with an AAV in the $38-$42m range. So, 11/12 years at that AAV. Maybe some sort of an opt-out/escalation thing we've seen with Cole/Soto recently too, where he can opt-out but the Cubs can trigger an escalation and pay him a bit more.

That's a great guesstimate!  Let's go get Tucker then!  Even if it's for one year.  

[SOFNR]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Honestly don't think this is so bad if the prospect coming back is decent. Obviously not a top 100 guy, but a guy that ends up in their 10-15 range. If they just want a straight salary dump with nothing coming back and the Cubs eating 7M, then go pound sand.

If the rumors were true about the Yankees #5 prospect being available I'd be content with eating 7 mil. That still gives you around 50 mil to play with. Trading Paredes and getting Tucker leaves you around 41. Should be enough money to trade for a pitcher, add Kelly, and bolster the bullpen atleast.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

If the rumors were true about the Yankees #5 prospect being available I'd be content with eating 7 mil. That still gives you around 50 mil to play with. Trading Paredes and getting Tucker leaves you around 41. Should be enough money to trade for a pitcher, add Kelly, and bolster the bullpen atleast.

Yankees system sucks so saying their #5 prospect isn't impressive. Put Warren in the Cubs system and he's probably like 15-20.

I dont mind Will Warren, but that's only because this team has a fixation on fastball + slider pitchers and have done well with that and Warren has a plus plus slider. Given the money Bellinger is owed, though, I dont know how much better you can expect than Warren.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Cuzi

[KCCub]

Paredes $6.2m 3.1 fWAR proj
Bellinger $27.5m 2.1 fWAR proj

Out $26.7m (33.7m - eating $7m of Bellinger's contract)

Kyle Tucker $16.7m 5.5 fWAR proj
+ $10mish to spend

 

Thoughts on Josh Rojas as the stopgap at 3b until Shaw forces his way on the club? 1.9 fWAR last season (Defensive guy) and can move to the super utility guy (Mainly played 3b last season, with starts at 2b, LF, and 1b) if Shaw forces his way on the big league club. How close is the $10mish that we net above to being his value?

 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Cubs420psd said:

Losing Smith would sting,but the Cubs need a star bat, gotta pull the trigger if that's the deal.

Losing Paredes stings too.  3 WAR bat for the next 3 years that isn't making much yet.   Tucker is a 2 WAR upgrade over Paredes for 1 year.  Plus Smith.  Tucker is a 2 WAR upgrade over Seiya and arguably Bellinger given one of them would go delete too if a trade happens.

Who do the Cubs play at 3B is the real question.  Much easier to replace OF or DH than 3B.  A hole at 3B plus questions on Nico's health makes the infield more iffy.

This is more complicated than " let's get a star bat".

[CubinNY]

Punch the Ricketts family in the nuts with a ball-peen hammer and sign Bregman and Tucker while they are trying to recover. 

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Paredes $6.2m 3.1 fWAR proj
Bellinger $27.5m 2.1 fWAR proj

Out $26.7m (33.7m - eating $7m of Bellinger's contract)

Kyle Tucker $16.7m 5.5 fWAR proj
+ $10mish to spend

 

Thoughts on Josh Rojas as the stopgap at 3b until Shaw forces his way on the club? 1.9 fWAR last season (Defensive guy) and can move to the super utility guy (Mainly played 3b last season, with starts at 2b, LF, and 1b) if Shaw forces his way on the big league club. How close is the $10mish that we net above to being his value?

 

I think that if they trade Paredes, Shaw would have force himself OFF 3B.  I think the job is his to lose. 

[Rcal10]

So a little diffent topic but based on the Cubs getting Tucker and losing Paredes. Is Shaw the 3rd baseman? What is the status of guys like Moncada and Polanco? Are they both FA? Would one of them make sense on a short deal for not a lot of money as insurance with Shaw. Maybe they are just a bench bat if Shaw does well? Or do the Cubs shop for a 3rd baseman? Bohm has been mentioned as someone the Phillies are open to trading. Can Lowe or Diaz play 3rd? Tampa is always an option. They can also look at Torres to move to third. But he is probably too pricey. I just don’t see the Cubs handing the job to Shaw without a back up plan. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that if they trade Paredes, Shaw would have force himself OFF 3B.  I think the job is his to lose. 

I don’t think it is given to him without a back up plan. Maybe he wins it. That would be awesome. But I would like to have a decent back up who, if Shaw wins the job, is bench strength. 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

So a little diffent topic but based on the Cubs getting Tucker and losing Paredes. Is Shaw the 3rd baseman? What is the status of guys like Moncada and Polanco? Are they both FA? Would one of them make sense on a short deal for not a lot of money as insurance with Shaw. Maybe they are just a bench bat if Shaw does well? Or do the Cubs shop for a 3rd baseman? Bohm has been mentioned as someone the Phillies are open to trading. Can Lowe or Diaz play 3rd? Tampa is always an option. They can also look at Torres to move to third. But he is probably too pricey. I just don’t see the Cubs handing the job to Shaw without a back up plan. 

If it was me, Shaw would have the job on OD.  He's 5 years remove from HS and has crazy bat skills.  He has nothing to prove anymore, and should be given the spot if it's open.  I can't imagine opening up 3B, and signing another 3B to player there.  

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Paredes $6.2m 3.1 fWAR proj
Bellinger $27.5m 2.1 fWAR proj

Out $26.7m (33.7m - eating $7m of Bellinger's contract)

Kyle Tucker $16.7m 5.5 fWAR proj
+ $10mish to spend

 

Thoughts on Josh Rojas as the stopgap at 3b until Shaw forces his way on the club? 1.9 fWAR last season (Defensive guy) and can move to the super utility guy (Mainly played 3b last season, with starts at 2b, LF, and 1b) if Shaw forces his way on the big league club. How close is the $10mish that we net above to being his value?

 

Not a bad idea but I think I want to use that money on the pitching side of things. Grabbing Pressley in the Tucker trade, signing a back end reliever, etc. 

My preference is to take on some risk and just go with Shaw. Tucker basically replaces the production of Paredes and Bellinger in the line up. Signing a guy like Rojas who caps out at a couple wins is fine, and those marginal wins are important, but a guy like Tucker allows you to throw Shaw into the deep end in the 8 spot in the line up for a couple months. If it's a disaster come the summer....go make another Morel/Paredes deal. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Thoughts on Josh Rojas as the stopgap at 3b until Shaw forces his way on the club? 1.9 fWAR last season (Defensive guy) and can move to the super utility guy (Mainly played 3b last season, with starts at 2b, LF, and 1b) if Shaw forces his way on the big league club. How close is the $10mish that we net above to being his value?

 

 

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So a little diffent topic but based on the Cubs getting Tucker and losing Paredes. Is Shaw the 3rd baseman? What is the status of guys like Moncada and Polanco? Are they both FA? Would one of them make sense on a short deal for not a lot of money as insurance with Shaw. Maybe they are just a bench bat if Shaw does well? Or do the Cubs shop for a 3rd baseman? Bohm has been mentioned as someone the Phillies are open to trading. Can Lowe or Diaz play 3rd? Tampa is always an option. They can also look at Torres to move to third. But he is probably too pricey. I just don’t see the Cubs handing the job to Shaw without a back up plan. 

I don't think you can go without someone else who can at least fake it as an every day 3B, preferably a LHH so you can ease Shaw in when ready(and they can potentially cover for Nico/Dansby via 2B).  I like Rojas fine, though I wonder how much more certain his bat is than Workman.  As long as they don't think he'll be a -10 3B, I like Jorge Polanco to bounce back strong with the bat.  Willi Castro is another who would be a fairly seamless fit if you can talk the Twins into a reasonable deal.

[We Got The Whole 9]

23 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Other than random Cubs fans and blogs online is this really a thing we’ve seem from the FO? They traded for Paredes so his replacement could get a dozen AAA PAs? I get Levine mentioned Paredes and Smith but note how it hasn’t happened, nothing has on the “free job for Shaw” front

Maybe I’m being contrarian but the Kris Bryantization of Shaw is more funny that accurate to me, Cubs fans filling in blanks the only way they’ve been trained how 

Nobody has really KB'd Shaw, first off. He has received nowhere near the hype KB had and the posts around him have not annointed him a can't-miss star prospect either; in fact I would argue that his visible warts have been brought up and I think the expectation for him if he were to start with the club are fairly lukewarm. At least from my perspective. I believe he can start right away and be about a 2 win player with plenty of room to grow. I'm very interested in seeing what kind of value he provides outside of the bat as well. 

 

I do believe that Jed would love to run with Paredes cheap production for a few years but I also believe 2 things: 1) He realizes that HOU was #2 on him and he wants Tucker badly, 2) He saw the dip in production and the xstats and feels like the fit might not be there.

 

Stop being so condescending. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I don't think you can go without someone else who can at least fake it as an every day 3B, preferably a LHH so you can ease Shaw in when ready(and they can potentially cover for Nico/Dansby via 2B).  I like Rojas fine, though I wonder how much more certain his bat is than Workman.  As long as they don't think he'll be a -10 3B, I like Jorge Polanco to bounce back strong with the bat.  Willi Castro is another who would be a fairly seamless fit if you can talk the Twins into a reasonable deal.

Is Polanco a free agent? If so, he would be my preference as well. And if Shaw wins the job the Cubs have a nice lefty bat on the bench.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I don't think you can go without someone else who can at least fake it as an every day 3B, preferably a LHH so you can ease Shaw in when ready(and they can potentially cover for Nico/Dansby via 2B).  I like Rojas fine, though I wonder how much more certain his bat is than Workman.  As long as they don't think he'll be a -10 3B, I like Jorge Polanco to bounce back strong with the bat.  Willi Castro is another who would be a fairly seamless fit if you can talk the Twins into a reasonable deal.

The risk/reward balance is probably not right but Moncada fits in this bucket as well.

I like Rojas, but if we're not trading for a SP of substance pay a bit of a prospect premium to the Twins for Castro.  That also helps backfill the CF insurance we lose with a Bellinger deal.

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Is Polanco a free agent? If so, he would be my preference as well. And if Shaw wins the job the Cubs have a nice lefty bat on the bench.

Yes he is a FA.  

[thawv]

[KCCub]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I don't think you can go without someone else who can at least fake it as an every day 3B, preferably a LHH so you can ease Shaw in when ready(and they can potentially cover for Nico/Dansby via 2B).  I like Rojas fine, though I wonder how much more certain his bat is than Workman.  As long as they don't think he'll be a -10 3B, I like Jorge Polanco to bounce back strong with the bat.  Willi Castro is another who would be a fairly seamless fit if you can talk the Twins into a reasonable deal.

I would like Polanco's bat upside better, but man he would scare me to death as the everyday 3b. 

I just don't know how we could feel comfortable with this guy at 3b who has around 20 starts there in his MLB career:

[cl smooth]

Just now, thawv said:

11 followers. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

I don't know who this guy is but I love him. Please be true o lord. 

[thawv]

Just now, cl smooth said:

11 followers. 

I don't do twitter.  I read it and posted it.  Should I delete it because of the followers?

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, cl smooth said:

11 followers. 

you shut your filthy mouth.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The risk/reward balance is probably not right but Moncada fits in this bucket as well.

I like Rojas, but if we're not trading for a SP of substance pay a bit of a prospect premium to the Twins for Castro.  That also helps backfill the CF insurance we lose with a Bellinger deal.

While I'm still on Team Shaw-Opening-Day-Starter, I'll acknowledge we need someone else on the roster. If we're going to dip into something like Moncada....just re-sign Wisdom for $1m. Warm body, good fit in the clubhouse, etc. Whatever money we have needs to go to the pitching staff. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Yes he is a FA.  

Then he would be my first choice. I would also consider Moncada and Rojas. Then if your boy Shaw is all that you think he is, that player would be a good bench bat. None should cost too much to hurt them elsewhere. I doubt they spend bit on a pen arm. My guess is since the Brewers dfa Milner was Hoby would be here. I think he will be the pen arm. So add Kelly, Milner, one of those third baseman and you should still have a lot of money to add a staring pitcher.