Winter Meetings thread

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Cot's has 47.8 million.  Put away about 10 million for injuries and deadline moves, we're looking at 38 million.  How is that ignorant to site a reputable site, that most people use?

People.  Have. Done. The. Math. For. You. On. This. Message. Board.  They showed you all the numbers and explained why they were what they were, yet you insist on claiming their sources are magic and witchcraft for what reason I don't know.  As was said earlier, you have a preconceived notion about things and absolutely refuse to accept any new information other than things that confirm those.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Even this part of the narrative seems built on shady ground. Outside of the one season Shaw’s existed as a ball of clay for Cubs fans, his experience is overwhelmingly up the middle. He’s a 3B out of “need” in the Cubs org. I also don’t buy that he carried so much water for Crochet, but stuff like this is why I say he’s being Kris Bryantized without as meaty as resume 

Shaw was drafted as a SS that people assumed would move down the defensive spectrum, and played more than half his defensive innings this year at 3B(including about 70% of his AAA innings).  The front office is apparently ready to trade the 3B they made a substantial trade to acquire with Shaw as the only other reasonable option in the org today. It's really silly to try to fit in this contrived meta conspiracy that Cub fans are the ones being some level of irrational by thinking Shaw will play a significant part in the MLB 3B calculation next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

I never saw one source sited.  As often as I asked, you were the first to site a source.  Thank you

 

[mul21]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Shaw was drafted as a SS that people assumed would move down the defensive spectrum, and played more than half his defensive innings this year at 3B(including about 70% of his AAA innings).  The front office is apparently ready to trade the 3B they made a substantial trade to acquire with Shaw as the only other reasonable option in the org today. It's really silly to try to fit in this contrived meta conspiracy that Cub fans are the ones being some level of irrational by thinking Shaw will play a significant part in the MLB 3B calculation next year.

Stop trying to use logic with Tom.  🤣

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

I never saw one source sited.  As often as I asked, you were the first to site a source.  Thank you

Nope

 

 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

Damn you beat me to the punch!

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

People.  Have. Done. The. Math. For. You. On. This. Message. Board.  They showed you all the numbers and explained why they were what they were, yet you insist on claiming their sources are magic and witchcraft for what reason I don't know.  As was said earlier, you have a preconceived notion about things and absolutely refuse to accept any new information other than things that confirm those.

Nobody SHOWED me anything.  They were just spewing numbers with no source.  I have sited a source, which show my numbers.  If my source is wrong, that's another thing.  My preconceived notion is Cot's.  What's your source?  Or don't you have one?

[Cuzi]

So Cubs internet is responsible for Shaw playing at 3B? What are we even talking about here?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Yes but he didn’t spring into existence in 2024 of course, has a history beyond that.  No one until the Cubs interenet got their paws on him was looking at this guy as a serious 3B prospect

I’ll be silly then and say Cubs fans are irrational about Shaw, trying to force 2.0 to be 1.0 for comfort‘s sake.

So your contention is that Shaw is not a consideration for 3B?  Off the table as an option? If they trade Paredes in a Tucker deal what do you think will happen?

[thawv]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

I can't open it, and I've never seen this.  In the end, I use Cots'  No big deal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

I can't open it, and I've never seen this.  In the end, I use Cots'  No big deal.

It is a post I made replying to you, which even in the preview you can see includes the Fangraphs link.  You replied to it, and made multiple other posts in that back and forth afterwards.

[Rex Buckingham]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

I can't open it, and I've never seen this.  In the end, I use Cots'  No big deal.

you click on the arrow in the top right corner and it takes you to the thread, from a month ago, where TT explained why the Fangraphs roster resource is where his numbers come from. Since you were having this same argument a month ago

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

I can't open it, and I've never seen this.  In the end, I use Cots'  No big deal.

Here's you (in that thread) agreeing that someone else's numbers are right and you hadn't added in money for injuries.  Please stop.

[Brian707]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It is a post I made replying to you, which even in the preview you can see includes the Fangraphs link.  You replied to it, and made multiple other posts in that back and forth afterwards.

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’ll be silly then and say Cubs fans are irrational about Shaw, trying to force 2.0 to be 1.0 for comfort‘s sake.

I'm actually  in agreement with you on this one, and it touches on my post in the Jefferson Rojas thread over in the minors.  While I think Shaw is a good prospect with a bright future ahead of him, I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of him getting the everyday 3B job in 2025 out of Spring Training if Paredes is traded.  With guys like Bryant and Baez, it seemed like their respective prospect statuses were substantially higher than Shaw's is at the moment.  Shaw's not an untouchable prospect, but I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Put more bluntly, I don't expect Shaw to outperform Paredes in 2025, and I don't know how much I like the idea of trading Paredes as a general proposition.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm actually  in agreement with you on this one, and it touches on my post in the Jefferson Rojas thread over in the minors.  While I think Shaw is a good prospect with a bright future ahead of him, I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of him getting the everyday 3B job in 2025 out of Spring Training if Paredes is traded.  With guys like Bryant and Baez, it seemed like their respective prospect statuses were substantially higher than Shaw's is at the moment.  Shaw's not an untouchable prospect, but I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Put more bluntly, I don't expect Shaw to outperform Paredes in 2025, and I don't know how much I like the idea of trading Paredes as a general proposition.

I highly doubt the Cubs are going to outright give Shaw the 3B position if Paredes is dealt. First of all, Shaw isn't even on the 40 man roster. I expect the most likely outcome would be that the Cubs bring someone in that's more of a defensive first option, since the offensive options suck, and then Shaw gets a non roster ST invite to compete.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Here's you (in that thread) agreeing that someone else's numbers are right and you hadn't added in money for injuries.  Please stop.

Got it!  The portion I wasn't doing as you can clearly read my comment, is not using all the money in the off season.  After backing out 10 million, my number adjusted.  They have since signed Boyd, and according to Cot's, it's now ate 48 million.  After backing out 10 million, Cot's has them at 38 million.  I don't see the issue unless Cot's is wrong.  And who's to say the Fangraphs is right or wrong, or that Cot's is right or wrong. 

 

You guys showed me about the injury money.  I was unaware of that.  I don't know how my source and your source can be so far off.  

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm actually  in agreement with you on this one, and it touches on my post in the Jefferson Rojas thread over in the minors.  While I think Shaw is a good prospect with a bright future ahead of him, I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of him getting the everyday 3B job in 2025 out of Spring Training if Paredes is traded.  With guys like Bryant and Baez, it seemed like their respective prospect statuses were substantially higher than Shaw's is at the moment.  Shaw's not an untouchable prospect, but I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Put more bluntly, I don't expect Shaw to outperform Paredes in 2025, and I don't know how much I like the idea of trading Paredes as a general proposition.

I think people are hoping for a 2 WAR season from Shaw, and if he's handcuffed with a LHH option to face some of the RHP he may struggle against, that seems like a reasonable expectation from the position as a whole.  It feels like people are cautiously optimistic about his prospect profile from a hitting standpoint and we haven't heard any deal breakers defensively, so while not in love with that plan, the net WAR gain from a Tucker/Shaw combination vs a Cody/Paredes combination feels like a pretty significant upgrade.

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

 

6 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Another group thinker with no payroll source.  Nice work. 

[Cuzi]

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Wait, hold on. Matt Shaw is absolutely not Kris Bryant. But not a single person here is expecting him to put up 6 fWAR in his rookie season. I won't speak for anyone else here, but I'm totally fine with the expectation being a 3 win upgrade from Bellinger to Tucker and a 1.5 win downgrade from Paredes (3) to Shaw (1.5). I'll take the marginal upgrade, plus whatever we get for Bellinger, plus the $15ish m in 2025 net salary reduction, plus 12 months of exclusive negotiation with Tucker, plus the possibility of the right side of the bell curve on Shaw's performance. 

Shaw will most likely struggle. It's harder to hide that when you try to trot out the line up of 9 above average players. It's easier when you have a 160-180 wRC bat in the middle of it. 

[CubinNY]

My thinking is that Tucker is a difference-maker, and Parades is a solid player. I do the trade and worry about the back fill later. There are competent 3B who can fill that position.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm actually  in agreement with you on this one, and it touches on my post in the Jefferson Rojas thread over in the minors.  While I think Shaw is a good prospect with a bright future ahead of him, I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of him getting the everyday 3B job in 2025 out of Spring Training if Paredes is traded.  With guys like Bryant and Baez, it seemed like their respective prospect statuses were substantially higher than Shaw's is at the moment.  Shaw's not an untouchable prospect, but I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Put more bluntly, I don't expect Shaw to outperform Paredes in 2025, and I don't know how much I like the idea of trading Paredes as a general proposition.

I do think we have to take a step back and given the current team's administration some credit, here; they seem pretty steadfast that trading Matt Shaw is off the table (I'm basing this on multiple reports that they're uninterested in this) while also taking a look at how well the Cubs have generally been able to transition rookies to the major leagues and with relative success. We're still early on PCA and Michael Busch, but I think their rookie seasons were incredibly successful and give you a lot of hope as we move along. They were both in different eras of their prospectdom - one older and a little more "safe" while the other was younger and more raw - yet both were effective, even if they struggled at times.

So, ultimately, I think the Cubs have earned a bit of the benefit of the doubt here. Both in that they've done a good job transitioning prospects and secondly in that they've done a good job in talent identification with young players. If they are okay and confident with Shaw at 3b, then I think they kind of earn that a bit, Maybe they're doing it out of necessity, but I think that's also creating potential false narratives - all we can say is that the Cubs seem pretty against dealing Matt Shaw. The reason very well could be that they really have a lot of confidence in him and model him very well.

For my own two cents - I think Matt Shaw is pretty damn good. I do think he'll follow a similar path as Busch last year - initial struggles, him figuring things out, and then peaks and valleys until he settled in more. I don't think he's Kris Bryant where he's going to come up and be the guy right away - I'm expecting a season around 2 wins but with a feeling that by the end of the season, he might settle in as a 110 wRC+ (not on an overall line but as he settles) with plus base running and an acceptable glove. I expect growing pains but I think his profile is one that I like and feel pretty comfortable with, as well. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm actually  in agreement with you on this one, and it touches on my post in the Jefferson Rojas thread over in the minors.  While I think Shaw is a good prospect with a bright future ahead of him, I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of him getting the everyday 3B job in 2025 out of Spring Training if Paredes is traded.  With guys like Bryant and Baez, it seemed like their respective prospect statuses were substantially higher than Shaw's is at the moment.  Shaw's not an untouchable prospect, but I think people's expectations with him for 2025 are on the same level as they were with those guys, and I don't think that's realistic here.

Put more bluntly, I don't expect Shaw to outperform Paredes in 2025, and I don't know how much I like the idea of trading Paredes as a general proposition.

I don't think a single person has intimated that he is a ready-made All-Star the way we did with Bryant. I only posted on PSD back then but there was definitely a large contingent of fans there that didn't believe the bust talk and thought we had a potential ROY, possible 5 war player. Again, the narrative around Shaw here has been, he's probably ready, needs a little protection, has some flaws that the MLB will expose, and will have some lumps. Nobody is screaming that this guy has nothing left to prove aside from the other guy getting chided in this thread today. The hype has been nothing like KBs.

[UMFan83]

59 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Haha someone is feeling a little bit salty -

 

 

There seems to be a perception amongst non-Cubs fans that the Cubs aren't trying to win right now.  I posted something on the Yankees sub the other day just giving my thoughts, while not revealing I'm a Cubs fan, and got hammered about why the Cubs would even be trying for Tucker since they're not trying to win right now, and pointed out trying to trade Bellinger, Nico and Seiya as evidence.  And I guess on the surface that makes sense if that is all you've seen from the Cubs this offseason.  And also, Jed is clearly not trying to build a 95 win team, he wants to build a stupid 88 win team that sneaks into the playoffs so it can appear that the Cubs are miles away from contending.  I just thought it was interesting that this is the perception other fanbases have of the Cubs.