Winter Meetings thread

[Jason Ross]

TIFWIW. Looks like a St. Louis BN type. Don't love the followers. But at worst, it brings a discussion and wrinkle to the "who plays 3b" convo

[Cuzi]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

TIFWIW

With what the Phillies were asking of the Mariners for Bohm, I'm not sure I like the idea of the Cubs going after him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

TIFWIW

That would take more of the ammo cache from Jed I'm sure 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

TIFWIW

I saw that as well. That twitter has been correct before, but also spews a lot of possible deals. Very interesting if the Cubs are truely interested in Bohm

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

TIFWIW

That would tie the random reports of the Phillies suddenly being involved with the same names mentioned (Bohm and Castellanos).  Would make sense if they were actually part of a 3 team trade.

[squally1313]

I mean, that's an absurd tweet

[Jason Ross]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I mean, that's an absurd tweet

It feels absurd. I agree. 

[squally1313]

Castellanos to the Cubs, ok sure, good call

[Petrey10]

Goal to get best team on paper so sasaki sees us being good? 
 

the NL central is wide open for the taking IMO. Brewers will be solid again but after that…

[Illiterate Scholar]

Me reading Tom's posts and fully comprehending the 1.0 and 2.0 like it's normal is a real "go touch grass" moment for myself.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

To answer the first two…The baseline here is that Shaw is a new and unestablished employee at the whim of his employer. If they go from Paredes, Shaw, Smith btw AA and MLB at 3B to just Shaw and like BJ Murray, which is purely hypothetical right now, then obviously he’s in consideration at 3B and even the “likely 3B” within the bureaucracy. In that sense he is in consideration and on the table. I’m sure if Shaw had any input beyond the obligation of producing non-stop to keep his spot in line, SS or 2B would be the preference or at least an org and roster those are open

Hmmm…Since they’ve got Tucker and are swinging anyway…sign Yoan Moncada. If doing the prospect thing then open competition in ST btw Shaw and Smith, the convert v the prototype in a battle of shiny new top 100s. For the record I don’t see this as likely at all 

Then what in the world are you on about

[Outshined_One]

Responding more generally (rather than do a quote by quote response), my comparison of him to Bryant at similar stages to their career was a bit hyperbolic, but two of you were willing to pencil Shaw in for 1.5 - 2 WAR when the guy just finished his first full season of minor league ball.  To me, that is not a realistic expectation for next season.  It took until August of this season for PCA to figure out ML pitching, and he at least had Bellinger and Tauchman backing him up during that stretch to go with his gold glove caliber defense.  Making matters worse, 3B is a wasteland in the majors compared to CF (as we have seen post-Bryant), so finding even a Tauchman-level backup plan is going to be difficult for Shaw if he's going to be the everyday 3B.

I'm not saying including Paredes in a Tucker deal is inherently a bad idea.  I'm also not saying that Shaw will bust when he debuts (or in his career).  I am saying that there need to be more reasonable expectations for Shaw than we've seen around the internet.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, that's an absurd tweet

Did I miss something? I thought it said Bohm to the Cubs. 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Did I miss something? I thought it said Bohm to the Cubs. 

"There’s been a mix of if Castellanos in this discussion (possible Chicago reunion)"

[Tryptamine]

I'm racking my brain here to try and come up with someone that would make sense for Bohm. Philly definitely wants MLB talent. Bohm isn't a FA until 2027 so it's going to have be something fairly valuable. I just can't think of anything that makes sense both ways unless it was something like Bohm+Castellanos for Seiya which I would absolutely loathe. 

 

 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Responding more generally (rather than do a quote by quote response), my comparison of him to Bryant at similar stages to their career was a bit hyperbolic, but two of you were willing to pencil Shaw in for 1.5 - 2 WAR when the guy just finished his first full season of minor league ball.  To me, that is not a realistic expectation for next season.  It took until August of this season for PCA to figure out ML pitching, and he at least had Bellinger and Tauchman backing him up during that stretch to go with his gold glove caliber defense.  Making matters worse, 3B is a wasteland in the majors compared to CF (as we have seen post-Bryant), so finding even a Tauchman-level backup plan is going to be difficult for Shaw if he's going to be the everyday 3B.

I'm not saying including Paredes in a Tucker deal is inherently a bad idea.  I'm also not saying that Shaw will bust when he debuts (or in his career).  I am saying that there need to be more reasonable expectations for Shaw than we've seen around the internet.

In the same way that Matt Shaw isn't Kris Bryant, he also isn't PCA. PCA more or less bottomed out in AAA offensively, at least in terms of what you'd expect from a top prospect (60 games and 275 PAs of like a 103 wRC). Shaw put up 142 wRC in his 35 games/152 PAs there, and has since had a loud offseason in terms of non-Cub production. Now, Shaw certainly isn't going to give you the defensive production as a backstop, but casting PCAs pre-August offensive production (550 OPS, 55 wRC) on Shaw isn't fair either. 

[Bull]

I don't understand all the hand-wringing over whether Shaw can handle third. If he can't, you move your weirdly right-handed first baseman to third and put literally anyone at first base. Sign a DH (Goldschmidt Pederson tier) with the extra money. If Shaw (at third), Alcantara, and Caissie (at first) all strike out, you put that DH at first.

[Bertz]

Right now, and it only gets worse with Paredes sent out, this team is really light on RHH power.  Player-wise Bohm + Castellanos makes a lot of sense but financially I don't really see any way to make it work without just going "welp, this here is the pitching staff I guess."

[Rcal10]

Just now, Bull said:

I don't understand all the hand-wringing over whether Shaw can handle third. If he can't, you move your weirdly right-handed first baseman to third and put literally anyone at first base. Sign a DH (Goldschmidt Pederson tier) with the extra money. If Shaw (at third), Alcantara, and Caissie (at first) all strike out, you put that DH at first.

I don’t like the idea of messing with Busch. Leave him at 1st. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Responding more generally (rather than do a quote by quote response), my comparison of him to Bryant at similar stages to their career was a bit hyperbolic, but two of you were willing to pencil Shaw in for 1.5 - 2 WAR when the guy just finished his first full season of minor league ball.  To me, that is not a realistic expectation for next season.  It took until August of this season for PCA to figure out ML pitching, and he at least had Bellinger and Tauchman backing him up during that stretch to go with his gold glove caliber defense.  Making matters worse, 3B is a wasteland in the majors compared to CF (as we have seen post-Bryant), so finding even a Tauchman-level backup plan is going to be difficult for Shaw if he's going to be the everyday 3B.

I'm not saying including Paredes in a Tucker deal is inherently a bad idea.  I'm also not saying that Shaw will bust when he debuts (or in his career).  I am saying that there need to be more reasonable expectations for Shaw than we've seen around the internet.

So, I think we have to look at how players can achieve 2 wins at the 3b position. And then ask ourselves - can Matt Shaw do that? For our game, I'm going to use Josh Rojas, who clocked in at 1.9 fWAR over the course of 143 games. 

Josh Rojas finished last year, in 436 PA's, with a 91 wRC+. He was 20th out of 29 (using 400 PA's as a minimum) in base running value, while finishing with a +7 DRS and a +5 OAA. 

I think Matt Shaw, over a similar span, probably gets to 1.9 fWAR with a 97- 1`00 wRC+, and then flips Rojas in that he is a positive base runner (he's quick fast, steals bases...) and loses that value back on defense. Can Shaw replicate that line? Well, he's absolutely smashed every level he's been at - he finished with a 142 wRC+ last year in Triple A,. He did so with green flags such as his contact rate and his ability to hit velocity. Yes, he struggled with sweepers over a limited sample, and the leg kick is funny looking, but we're short of seeing where the leg kick has hampered him yet and sometimes guys do things funny-lookin'. 

For a comparison, PCA finished with an 87 wRC+, but was much worse at Triple-A. He took double the PA's but was a league average Triple-A hitter. I don't think expecting Shaw to finish with a wRC+ 10 points higher than PCA seems wild - especially with improvements on his approach. 

I don't think Matt Shaw has nothing else to prove. But I also don't think a pathway to 2 wins is particularly insane. It feels pretty median - in between the best case and the worst case. 

I'm all for finding him some help. Give me a Rojas or something that gives you a floor guy incase of injury or face-planting. But I also think he's pretty "green-flaggy" when we look under the hood. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s not a situation to be sought out. Look at that Mookie Betts trade and do something more akin to that than this “plan” that really creates more work with less time

 

There are no less than 5 names(including Moncada) that have been mentioned for this purpose this morning alone, it's clearly the mainstream line of thinking that Shaw is not Plan A, B, and C for 3B, even if using Paredes in a Tucker trade means Shaw will likely have more importance for 3B than we would've thought a month ago.  I'm begging you to stop arguing with the imaginary groupthink you've invented and actually just talk about the points that are literally being made.

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Responding more generally (rather than do a quote by quote response), my comparison of him to Bryant at similar stages to their career was a bit hyperbolic, but two of you were willing to pencil Shaw in for 1.5 - 2 WAR when the guy just finished his first full season of minor league ball.  To me, that is not a realistic expectation for next season.  It took until August of this season for PCA to figure out ML pitching, and he at least had Bellinger and Tauchman backing him up during that stretch to go with his gold glove caliber defense.  Making matters worse, 3B is a wasteland in the majors compared to CF (as we have seen post-Bryant), so finding even a Tauchman-level backup plan is going to be difficult for Shaw if he's going to be the everyday 3B.

I'm not saying including Paredes in a Tucker deal is inherently a bad idea.  I'm also not saying that Shaw will bust when he debuts (or in his career).  I am saying that there need to be more reasonable expectations for Shaw than we've seen around the internet.

To this I believe the difference is the approach. PCA is a different level of aggressive. But I've also shouted from the mountain tops that I thought his floor was really high because of the other parts of his game. I really didn't think 1.5-2 war would be outsized expectations for a guy that has absolutely mashed at every level and then took his OB game to new heights last season. I do believe he's capable of being above-average with the bat and the rest of his game will determine how valuable he really is on a WAR level at least.

[squally1313]

Like, Gavin Lux put up 251/320/383 with negative defensive production last year and that was good enough for 1.5 fWAR in 487 PAs. This isn't a Shaw v Lux prospect pedigree comparison, it's more me saying that Shaw can lose 225 points of OPS from his AAA performance and still be ok. 

[Tim]

If we trade Paredes, I'm going to want to sign someone who is 3B capable. 

But Shaw would be my opening day starter. I'd shield him a bit on matchups, but I'm greedy. I want the draft pick if he ends up winning ROY. At least give it a chance to happen.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Right now, and it only gets worse with Paredes sent out, this team is really light on RHH power.  Player-wise Bohm + Castellanos makes a lot of sense but financially I don't really see any way to make it work without just going "welp, this here is the pitching staff I guess."

Do the Cubs pivot and Bellinger is in the deal with the Phillies. Does that make sense money wise? Bohm and Castellanos for Suzuki and Bellinger. Add whatever else is needed. Does that work. Then Paredes a prospect and a filler for Tucker. Castellanos is DH and Bohm is 3rd baseman. 

Edited December 13, 2024 by Rcal10