Winter Meetings thread

[Bertz]

One other thing feels obvious but I'm not seeing connected as dots is if by some chance Heyman is right you simply don't deal Bellinger.  There is no reason to if Suzuki is gone.  Bellinger's flexibility makes him an ideal 9th man, and by sending out Paredes and Suzuki you've jettisoned nearly the same $25M salary.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

One other thing feels obvious but I'm not seeing connected as dots is if by some chance Heyman is right you simply don't deal Bellinger.  There is no reason to if Suzuki is gone.  Bellinger's flexibility makes him an ideal 9th man, and by sending out Paredes and Suzuki you've jettisoned nearly the same $25M salary.

Yeah, there's still some utility with it. I think my issue with that is:

1. I think the team is worse if they send Suzuki to Houston and keep Bellinger. Belliinger is the better fielder, but the worst option at DH. And I'd like to keep Suzuki's bat. Is it enough to cancel the entire trade? Probably not.

2. It's kind of pedantic, but Parades, Suzuki and Smith feels...heavy for 1 year of Tucker. And I guess you'd trade Bellinger for next to nothing, so it's kind of 6 in one hand and half a dozen in another in any other way...

So I think you can be okay in the end. It's just not my favorite.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, there's still some utility with it. I think my issue with that is:

1. I think the team is worse if they send Suzuki to Houston and keep Bellinger. Belliinger is the better fielder, but the worst option at DH. And I'd like to keep Suzuki's bat.

2. It's kind of pedantic, but Parades, Suzuki and Smith feels...heavy for 1 year of Tucker. And I guess you'd trade Bellinger for next to nothing, so it's kind of 6 in one hand and half a dozen in another in any other way...

As you said, it is too much. Walk away if Astros insist on it. 

[ILMindState]

https://twitter.com/ESPN1000/status/1867332415930110139

Edited December 12, 2024 by ILMindState

[Jason Ross]

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

As you said, it is too much. Walk away if Astros insist on it. 

It's only too much if you're expecting a return on Bellinger. If you're giving Bellinger away...it might still be worth it.

[Jason Ross]

 

[Jason Ross]

Getting Warren for Bellinger + Eating like $5m would be a killer return.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It's only too much if you're expecting a return on Bellinger. If you're giving Bellinger away...it might still be worth it.

Regardless of what happens with Bellinger, Tucker isn’t worth Paredes, Smith and Suzuki. I would rather Jed walk away then let the Astros clearly win the trade. 
I also think trading Suzuki hurts the small chance they have at Sasaki. I wouldn’t do it. 

Edited December 12, 2024 by Rcal10

[WhyCantWeWin]

That 200k lux tax must of hit Ricketts hard, cutting payroll even with so much salary off the books

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Regardless of what happens with Bellinger, Tucker isn’t worth Paredes, Smith and Suzuki. I would rather Jed walk away then let the Astros clearly win the trade. 

Well...no. Let's put it this way:

You trade Parades + Smith + Something else to the Astros for Tucker

You trade Bellinger to the Yankees in a pure salary dump

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Bellinger + Things

You trade Suzuki + Parades + Smith to the Astros for Tucker. 

You keep Bellinger

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Suzuki 

You're not really changing the math here. Yeah, Suzuki is probably better than Bellinger. So much better that you pass on Tucker? 

Obviously if the Cubs can get Will Warren, then let's change the math. But that's the math on a Bellinger salary dump.

[KCCub]

Also, could be very noteworthy if true, some chatter that Warren was a piece the Astros might want back for Tucker....

[Jason Ross]

Just now, KCCub said:

Also, could be very noteworthy if true, some chatter that Warren was a piece the Astros might want back for Tucker....

The plot thickens.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I do not see a ton to be particularly jazzed about with Warren outside of 'good stuff, maybe a different org connects some dots for him'.  But if his league reputation exceeds his results I'm more than fine to send him on to Houston if it keeps someone like Brown off the table.  That's generally how I would think about a Bellinger trade to begin with, getting a little prospect depth that either directly or indirectly makes it easier to pull off the trades the offseason requires.

[KCCub]

 

 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I do not see a ton to be particularly jazzed about with Warren outside of 'good stuff, maybe a different org connects some dots for him'.  But if his league reputation exceeds his results I'm more than fine to send him on to Houston if it keeps someone like Brown off the table.  That's generally how I would think about a Bellinger trade to begin with, getting a little prospect depth that either directly or indirectly makes it easier to pull off the trades the offseason requires.

I'd be fine with the Cubs landing a guy with a profile they target who was striking out 11.5 per 9 in his first go in the majors for Cody Bellinger.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

 

[chopsx9]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well...no. Let's put it this way:

You trade Parades + Smith + Something else to the Astros for Tucker

You trade Bellinger to the Yankees in a pure salary dump

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Bellinger + Things

You trade Suzuki + Parades + Smith to the Astros for Tucker. 

You keep Bellinger

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Suzuki 

You're not really changing the math here. Yeah, Suzuki is probably better than Bellinger. So much better that you pass on Tucker? 

Obviously if the Cubs can get Will Warren, then let's change the math. But that's the math on a Bellinger salary dump.

Yeah...nope.  Not for 1 year of Tucker.  If there is some pre-trade agreement on an extension maybe.  The Cubs didn't flame out in the Championship series; they're not one player away.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

I'd be fine with the Cubs landing a guy with a profile they target who was striking out 11.5 per 9 in his first go in the majors for Cody Bellinger.

That is certainly one way to describe his 5 starts that averaged a HR per outing for an ERA north of 10.

But yes, I'm fine with him as a return too(Bellinger isn't underwater but the value isn't significant, I just would rather Warren be the guy who then goes as part of the trade rather than Brown or maybe even Wicks/Assad.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That is certainly one way to describe his 5 starts that averaged a HR per outing for an ERA north of 10.

But yes, I'm fine with him as a return too(Bellinger isn't underwater but the value isn't significant, I just would rather Warren be the guy who then goes as part of the trade rather than Brown or maybe even Wicks/Assad.

Warren is interesting. It's small sample, but his stuff (shape, velocity, etc) most compares to:

2024 Michael King and 2024 Bryan Woo. As well, Brandon Pfaadt makes the top-5 (for transparency, so does Jakob Junis and Jonathon Cannon). So I think it's not too hard to look at Warren and think "well I'm getting in on the ground floor if I trust my developmental team". I think he's a nice return on Bellinger, probably better than I was expecting if the Cubs keep the money-eaten to a minimum. 

But I'm also totally fine sending him on to Houston, who also likes to develop pitchers and lower the overall cost on Tucker for the Cubs.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Is Warren more of a 2nd piece or 3rd piece in a potential Tucker deal?

In other words would we be looking at:

 

Paredes + Smith/Caissie/Shaw/Alcantara + Warren

Or

Paredes + Warren + someone outside of the organizational top 10?

 

I’m guessing the former?

[Bertz]

Scouting the Fangraphs page but Warren feels very Wesneski-y.  Whether he gets flipped directly or he backfills Wesneski or Assad TBD I guess.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Is Warren more of a 2nd piece or 3rd piece in a potential Tucker deal?

In other words would we be looking at:

 

Paredes + Smith/Caissie/Shaw/Alcantara + Warren

Or

Paredes + Warren + someone outside of the organizational top 10?

 

I’m guessing the former?

I would guess the former as well. But maybe if the Astros like Warren the Cubs could pull back Cassie and Amith and make it definitely Alcantara. (If that is the Xubs preference. Regardless of which one of those guys it would be I would make the trade with one of them, Paredes and Warren. I wouldn’t also be fine with the Cubs eating $10M of Bellinger’s deal. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

Scouting the Fangraphs page but Warren feels very Wesneski-y.  Whether he gets flipped directly or he backfills Wesneski or Assad TBD I guess.

Great minds. That was the name that came to my head.

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well...no. Let's put it this way:

You trade Parades + Smith + Something else to the Astros for Tucker

You trade Bellinger to the Yankees in a pure salary dump

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Bellinger + Things

You trade Suzuki + Parades + Smith to the Astros for Tucker. 

You keep Bellinger

Net: Kyle Tucker for Parades, Smith, Suzuki 

You're not really changing the math here. Yeah, Suzuki is probably better than Bellinger. So much better that you pass on Tucker? 

Obviously if the Cubs can get Will Warren, then let's change the math. But that's the math on a Bellinger salary dump.

I get the match. But Tucker isn’t worth that haul. Plain and simple. And I don’t want to trade Suzuki. In my mind Suzuki is much better than Bellinger. Especially offensively, which is what they need. Him and Tucker in the middle of the line up is far superior to Tucker and Bellinger. I also don’t like the idea of trading Suzuki while trying to get Sasaki.!

Edited December 12, 2024 by Rcal10