Winter Meetings thread

[ILMindState]

16 hours ago, JD94 said:

1) Would be pretty shocked if Jed traded both Seiya and Parades. 
 

2) Would also be shocked if Jed did this while not being willing to do everything in his power to extend / re-sign him. He knows Kyle will be in that 400 range. If this trade happens, I would feel pretty confident Jed / Tom will be willing to finally pay up for a star player. 

I'm sure Jed is gonna try to re-sign him but most of the rumors are saying he wants to be a free agent.  The Cubs aren't going to win a bidding war in free agency.  If they make this trade he's only staying for 1 year.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I'm sure Jed is gonna try to re-sign him but most of the rumors are saying he wants to be a free agent.  The Cubs aren't going to win a bidding war in free agency.  If they make this trade he's only staying for 1 year.

Most of the rumors will say that, yes, but I think he has to say that. By saying "I want to be a free agent" he's really saying "pay me like a free agent". If he says "I' am open to an extension" it says "I'd be willing to take a discount" to some. 

The messaging from Tucker and his camp will almost assuredly continue to be that. The Cubs will continue to say they see this as a 1-year trade, largely because we have to separate trade from extension. I do contend that the Cubs wouldn't move these kinds of assets without any thought that an extension was possible, or that they were so out of touch with reality that they don't understand what his market value is. They most likely will attempt to engage him and his reps during the next few months on seeing how well they can work towards a market value extension. 

Overall, it's probably fair to assume the most likely scenario is that he'd be here for one year. But that we can also be logical and understand why he's saying what he's saying, and that the team is probably not doing this with an eye on just one year, too. 

[jersey cubs fan]

5 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I'm sure Jed is gonna try to re-sign him but most of the rumors are saying he wants to be a free agent.  The Cubs aren't going to win a bidding war in free agency.  If they make this trade he's only staying for 1 year.

If they acquire the guy I’d bet they are the favorite to sign him and something like 30-40% chance they do. 
 

they’ve got very little on the books past 2026. Suzuki and Bellinger will be gone. Good chance Happ and/or Hoerner will be gone. 
 

The bigger question will be getting him in the first place. 

[mul21]

It's hilarious how many people are definitively saying the Cubs won't even attempt to sign him to an extension if they trade for him.  I'm all about bashing them for being cheap asses, but the certainty some of you have in saying they won't even make an attempt is comical and just plain dumb.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Most guys at this talent level just won't make it to FA anymore so you have to take your shot when you have it. Like cuzi said, they already missed the boat on Betts (one of the biggest robberies of all-time and could have really kept us in the upper echeleon if we made that trade instead), Harper, Seager, Ohtani, Soto, etc.. These shots are drying up, teams are really good at extending early. He's young, dynamic, and has a skillset that doesn't need any protection. 

 

Make it happen, Jed.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

It's hilarious how many people are definitively saying the Cubs won't even attempt to sign him to an extension if they trade for him.  I'm all about bashing them for being cheap asses, but the certainty some of you have in saying they won't even make an attempt is comical and just plain dumb.

Even more so - for all of the bashing Hoyer took for his comments on why he didn't attempt to sign Juan Soto, there's plenty in there that makes you believe he would try to sign Tucker. Say what you want about Jed, he's usually pretty transparent when he talks. 

People laughed when he said that the Cubs made a choice internally not to pursuit him and that they would consider a large market value for someone else - it was 24 hours later we saw how deep they were on Tucker. I don't think that's an accident. I don't think it's an accident he said that, and I don't think it's an accident that Tucker also plays the same position. 

Listening to those quotes back, it sounds much more like "we feel better about acquiring Kyle Tucker. We would consider a market value contract for him" with the added context. 

[LBiittner]

On a different train of thought to get a break from the hand wringing over whether or not jed can extend a hypothetical messiah : jeds former underling now in Boston traded for a once thought of best cub option for our pitching rotation. 

He gave 4 youngsters for Crochet. My question: what would've been the Cubs equivalent to the Boston booty? And with failure rate of prospects so great, why wouldn't jed take advantage and pay up for a highly proven youngster? 

Seems like a total miss on jeds swing

[thawv]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Only keyboard GMs care about surplus value. They can’t keep hovering around .500 and dealing multiple players for one year rentals and expect to win. 

I agree with this.  They need to stop worrying about every players surplus value until it's trade time.  Just put the best them that they can on the field within the budget and move on. 

[thawv]

16 minutes ago, mul21 said:

It's hilarious how many people are definitively saying the Cubs won't even attempt to sign him to an extension if they trade for him.  I'm all about bashing them for being cheap asses, but the certainty some of you have in saying they won't even make an attempt is comical and just plain dumb.

Define attempt to sign him.  8/240?  Because that's not really an attempt, knowing he'll be closer to 400 million.  

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

On a different train of thought to get a break from the hand wringing over whether or not jed can extend a hypothetical messiah : jeds former underling now in Boston traded for a once thought of best cub option for our pitching rotation. 

He gave 4 youngsters for Crochet. My question: what would've been the Cubs equivalent to the Boston booty? And with failure rate of prospects so great, why wouldn't jed take advantage and pay up for a highly proven youngster? 

Seems like a total miss on jeds swing

The equivalent is probably something like Shaw, Ballesteros, Birdsell, and Rojas? 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

I agree with this.  They need to stop worrying about every players surplus value until it's trade time.  Just put the best them that they can on the field within the budget and move on. 

Are people saying that they aren't trying to do this? You guys do realize those concepts are intrinsically related right?

[thawv]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Are people saying that they aren't trying to do this? You guys do realize those concepts are intrinsically related right?

I don't think that anybody is saying this.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, thawv said:

Define attempt to sign him.  8/240?  Because that's not really an attempt, knowing he'll be closer to 400 million.  

How out of touch with reality do you think Jed Hoyer is? 

I get that we all have this negative feeling about everything, but Jed Hoyer lives on planet Earth. If you and I know that he'd never once consider that, then so does Hoyer. I think we have to give some understanding that while Hoyer hasn't shown that ability in the past, that he also understands value and what a player needs. I think we also have to understand that he probably wouldn't trade these assets without that understanding or some belief he can offer a market value deal. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Is today the last day of the winter meetings? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

Is today the last day of the winter meetings? 

Today is get away day, yes. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

If Boston gets Burnes that rotation is disgusting. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

A team has to pay market value for stars unless they do a really good job of developing players and can pay them less due to the rules established by MLB. This idea of surplus value is an illusion. If you have a guy on your team that you are paying less due to the rules, good work. But you can't expect to get established major league players at a discount. 

Baseball is about wins and losses and no one cares about efficiency except for keyboard wizards. 

If Bellinger only made 10m he'd be more valuable and would bring more back in trade.  Every GM cares about surplus.

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

23 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Maybe Shaw + Caissie (edit: and Montgomery’s a better or cleaner or safer prospect fwtw) + J. long + Cubs don’t really have a Wilkeman

 

BN suggested that Mo, Cam Smith, Pedro Ramirez and Jaxon Wiggons would have been the Cubs version of that deal. 

 

 

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

If they acquire the guy I’d bet they are the favorite to sign him and something like 30-40% chance they do. 
 

they’ve got very little on the books past 2026. Suzuki and Bellinger will be gone. Good chance Happ and/or Hoerner will be gone. 
 

The bigger question will be getting him in the first place. 

What makes the Cubs the favorite? The Phillies and Yankees are the other teams rumored to be interested in Tucker too. If either of those teams miss out on the trade they are 100% out bidding the Cubs in free agency. Plus you gotta compete with whatever other big boy spenders that wanna jump in the sweepstakes.

Edited December 12, 2024 by ILMindState

[CubinNY]

I think if Jed agrees to a trade of Tucker they will 1) know his value and 2) will be willing to keep him if they can. Given where they are in their competitive cycle, it would not make sense to give up what he will cost and not have every intention of signing him long term, whether it be an extension or during free agency. 

As goony mentioned, they have a lot of money coming off the books in the next year or two. He could be the face of the franchise for a long time. He's just the player the Cubs need. 

So if it happens I will be happy even with the uncertainty. We know they cannot throw out the same lineup they have for the last few years and expect different results. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, NorthsideAvenger said:

BN suggested that Mo, Cam Smith, Pedro Ramirez and Jaxon Wiggons would have been the Cubs version of that deal. 

 

 

That's probably on the low end. It depends on how you view Teel. There's plenty in the industry who think he's a borderline top-20 guy, and others (like Jarret Seidler) who think he's more of a top-50 guy. I think if you see Teel like Seidler, that probably fits. 

If you see him more like a top-20 guy, then I think Shaw/Smith/Wiggins/Long might fit., 

[ILMindState]

Double post

Edited December 12, 2024 by ILMindState

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If Bellinger only made 10m he'd be more valuable and would bring more back in trade.  Every GM cares about surplus.

 

you're talking about cost not value. Whoever he gets traded to will assume the costs. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Why are people still latching onto this *one* report where the Astros asked for both guys?

Just a note that I didn't say the Astros wanted all 2 or 3 guys as mentioned.  My point was those guys are valuable to us too.  Point of the trade should be that we're better from it and same with Astros and we might not get there in a deal.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

We know they cannot throw out the same lineup they have for the last few years and expect different results. 

This has been covered before but this isn't a real thing. 

Opening Day 2023 line up/who would be the starter right now for Opening Day 2025

• C - Gomes/Amaya or Kelley
• 1B - Hosmer/Busch
• 2B - Hoerner/Hoerner
• SS - Swanson/Swanson
• 3B - Wisdom/Paredes
• LF - Happ/Happ
• CF - Bellinger/PCA
• RF - Mastrobuoni/Bellinger
• DH - Mancini/Suzuki

That's 5 new starters since the beginning of last year (four if you don't want to count Suzuki and his injury). And they basically kept the first four in the line up (ie the good players) and replaced the bottom 5 (the not good players).

I want Tucker too and I'm letting myself get annoyed they can't just push it across the finish line. But this whole 'we'll run it back again' thing just isn't the reality.