Winter Meetings thread

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

Might also be that they don’t feel a need to respond to the Red Sox since they had already signed Fried. 

This is also true. I think people are giving the Yankees too much credit here anyway. Who are they trading that can match Parades/Smith/Asaad? And do the Astros want to make the Yankees better? I don’t see Dominguez mentioned in a trade. I have seen Gill. Ok, that is one guy. What else? 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Post Count Padder said:

Yeah I took Crochet as a response to Yankees getting Fried. At this point feels like Bregman is staying in Houston or going to the Yankees. Maybe the Mariners. 

I've read Mariner fans on X. Their team is supposedly cheap and are holding firm to 150mil payroll

[17 Seconds]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm hoping bregman back to stros otherwise I doubt Tucker will be available 

all the tucker rumors have involved paredes. I think they want him as the bregman replacement and are okay losing both him and Tucker 

[Bertz]

Hardest of passes on Alonso.  The team needs a RHH 1B, but there's no reason to give Alonso $25M a year.  

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm hoping bregman back to stros otherwise I doubt Tucker will be available 

I said that too. But 1908 pointed out the Astros are even more long term contract adverse than the Cubs. There is a belief Tucker gets traded regardless of what happens with Bregman. And historically the Astros have kept guys and lost them to FA. Apparently they don’t want to do that again with Tucker, regardless of what happens with Bregman. 

[ILMindState]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That ask for Tucker is too high. I want him, but if the Astros want that much and demand it, Cubs walk away. Most I would go for the Cubs is 2 of Parades/Shaw/Smith/Alcantara plus a lesser prospect or someone like Assad or Wesneski. No in Suzuki. 

No to Shaw for a rental, iffy on Cam Smith as well. Most I would go is Paredes, Alcantara/Cassie, Wicks/Brown, other filler.

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Hardest of passes on Alonso.  The team needs a RHH 1B, but there's no reason to give Alonso $25M a year.  

If the Cubs did, at close to that price, would he play 1b or dh or is it overpay for either position?

[squally1313]

31 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Some notes from Heyman's live steam (Nothing really new)

Bellinger - Cubs/Yankess made a 'bit of progress'
Tucker - Cubs favorites, ask is Paredes & Suzuki & one of Shaw/Smith
Alonso - “I throw the Cubs in the mix for Alonso. They’ve long been rumored to be interested in him.”

Just for the fun of it, I wanted to see what a scenario looked like if Jed goes mad scientist and meets the Astros demands (Logic says absolutely won't happen).

Out

Bellinger $27.5m ($26.6m AAV) Streamer Proj 2.1 fWAR
Paredes $6.2m Proj 3.1 fWAR
Suzuki $19m ($17m AAV) Proj 2.2 fWAR

$52.7m 7.4 fWAR Proj 

In

Tucker $16.7m Proj 5.5 fWAR
Alonso $25m (5/$125m CS & MLBTR 5/$125m) Proj 2.6 fWAR

$41.7m 8.1 fWAR Proj

Elephants in the room - Who plays 3b? What does Bellinger's return look like and how much $$$ are the Cubs eating?

I certainly wouldn't go this route, but if you make Cam Smith the third guy in that trade, anything Matt Shaw does as the starting third baseman that clears the 'falling on his face' bar (aka the '2024 Chris Morel' bar) is just a bonus in terms of adding 2025 value. Now, do you trade 2 future years of Paredes, 2 future years of Suzuki, and Cam Smith for a 1 win increase in 2025 and then Alonso on the decline? Almost certainly not. But that's how good Tucker is. 

In this hypothetical, playing out the dominos, that makes it more likely that Bregman goes to NYY, making them less likely to go after Bellinger, making it less likely we get a NYY surplus starter for Bellinger. Brings the Castillo deal back into play, maybe. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man that is a hard trigger to pull. I really don't like that package for 1 year, it's insane. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The main problem with this is the Seiya projection is off by a full win in all likelihood, so even post-Alonso you're probably marginally worse.

The good news is that the Seiya stuff(and especially the Paredes + Seiya + more nonsense) increasingly looks like a voice in Jon Heyman's head.

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

all the tucker rumors have involved paredes. I think they want him as the bregman replacement and are okay losing both him and Tucker 

It would be interesting to see a chart of paredes flyballs in 2024 and how they'd land in the Astros park. I think 1908 and or bertz mentioned his bat plays well in Astros stadium 

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Man that is a hard trigger to pull. I really don't like that package for 1 year, it's insane. 

Well, neither does Hoyer. He came out after all the Tucker rumors started swirling and said "I expect Suzuki to be on the Cubs roster opening day."

Edited December 12, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

If the Cubs did, at close to that price, would he play 1b or dh or is it overpay for either position?

Busch is certainly a better defender but sometimes money overrides logic in these situations.

The problem with Alonso is that he's a good hitter but not an elite one.  The raw HR numbers and that outrageous rookie year give him a reputation no longer backed by the facts on the ground.  He's very much an Ian Happ or Michael Busch caliber hitter at this point, and I'm not going to poo poo that but I'm also not going to pay 9 figures for it particularly given what's already on the roster.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

No to Shaw for a rental, iffy on Cam Smith as well. Most I would go is Paredes, Alcantara/Cassie, Wicks/Brown, other filler.

Smith is definitely getting some of that shiney new toy love here. I wouldn’t have a problem with him being the headliner at all. I would much rather trade a prospect than proven talent. I get Shaw, but I think if the Astros insisted(and I don’t think they would) I would trade him. My ideal trade to the Astros would be Smith/Alcantara/Assad. Keeps Parades at 3rd and when we trade Bellinger, Tucker replaces him. Bellinger gets traded for a staring pitcher. And if we have to add a prospect we do. Time to use the minor league system for what it is. A tool to bring in quality major league talent. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Well, neither does Hoyer. He came out after all the Tucker rumors started swirling and said "I expect Suzuki to be on the Cubs roster opening day."

And I hope he honors that comment. But if Suzuki is in the deal Valdez has to come too. Not saying Parades and Suzuki for Valdez and Tucker. Obviously the Cubs would have to add a combination of Smith/Assad/Wicks/Triantos/Alcantara/ Brown etc… Not all, but players within that group.  But if they lost Suzuki they would probably keep Bellinger. Which means Suzuki has to bring pitcher back. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Busch is certainly a better defender but sometimes money overrides logic in these situations.

The problem with Alonso is that he's a good hitter but not an elite one.  The raw HR numbers and that outrageous rookie year give him a reputation no longer backed by the facts on the ground.  He's very much an Ian Happ or Michael Busch caliber hitter at this point, and I'm not going to poo poo that but I'm also not going to pay 9 figures for it particularly given what's already on the roster.

To me Alonso is going to be this years Bellinger/Chapman of last off season. 

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

It would be interesting to see a chart of paredes flyballs in 2024 and how they'd land in the Astros park. I think 1908 and or bertz mentioned his bat plays well in Astros stadium 

Don't have the illustrated chart, but BaseballSavant has Paredes with 26 homes if he played every game in Houston last year, which is the most of every park. 21 for TB, 13 in Wrigley (not relevant, but has him with 6 in Baltimore, which, lol).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[TarzanJoeWallis]

24 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

It would be interesting to see a chart of paredes flyballs in 2024 and how they'd land in the Astros park. I think 1908 and or bertz mentioned his bat plays well in Astros stadium 

Bleacher Nation has a story about that today. 

[mul21]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Smith is definitely getting some of that shiney new toy love here. I wouldn’t have a problem with him being the headliner at all. I would much rather trade a prospect than proven talent. I get Shaw, but I think if the Astros insisted(and I don’t think they would) I would trade him. My ideal trade to the Astros would be Smith/Alcantara/Assad. Keeps Parades at 3rd and when we trade Bellinger, Tucker replaces him. Bellinger gets traded for a staring pitcher. And if we have to add a prospect we do. Time to use the minor league system for what it is. A tool to bring in quality major league talent. 

I think Smith has the highest ceiling of any of the Cubs prospects and that's not shiny new toy infatuation.  The power, average, K%, and ability to play 3B combination make for a very exciting potential.  No idea if he reaches it, but that's where I see him and I'd hate to lose him.

Two other things not necessarily directed at you but:

1. It's Paredes, one A, two Es.

2. Heyman is the only person who has even considered that the Astros are asking for BOTH Paredes and Suzuki and I really wish people would stop reposting what looks to be obviously erroneous reporting at this point.

[LBiittner]

13 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

Bleacher Nation has a story about that today. 

Hahaha. Perhaps I ghost write? 

No way. Lol

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think Smith has the highest ceiling of any of the Cubs prospects and that's not shiny new toy infatuation.  The power, average, K%, and ability to play 3B combination make for a very exciting potential.  No idea if he reaches it, but that's where I see him and I'd hate to lose him.

Two other things not necessarily directed at you but:

1. It's Paredes, one A, two Es.

2. Heyman is the only person who has even considered that the Astros are asking for BOTH Paredes and Suzuki and I really wish people would stop reposting what looks to be obviously erroneous reporting at this point.

The score radio in Chicago is framing it that way too. But assuming it is wrong than I am all for Getting Tucker and would do it even if Smith was in the deal. Paredes (better😬) and Smith with a smaller piece is as high as I would go. 

[ILMindState]

33 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Smith is definitely getting some of that shiney new toy love here. I wouldn’t have a problem with him being the headliner at all. I would much rather trade a prospect than proven talent. I get Shaw, but I think if the Astros insisted(and I don’t think they would) I would trade him. My ideal trade to the Astros would be Smith/Alcantara/Assad. Keeps Parades at 3rd and when we trade Bellinger, Tucker replaces him. Bellinger gets traded for a staring pitcher. And if we have to add a prospect we do. Time to use the minor league system for what it is. A tool to bring in quality major league talent. 

I'm going under the assumption that Paredes will be included in the deal because Bregman will sign somewhere else and the Astros want to still be able to compete if they trade Tucker.  With Paredes gone we need Shaw to fill in at 3b unless we find someone else to fill that position.  Or Nico might be traded and we need Shaw at 2b.  With Tucker in the mix we have a surplus of outfielders so I'm including one of Alcantara/Cassie in the deal instead of Shaw/Smith.

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

The score radio in Chicago is framing it that way too. But assuming it is wrong than I am all for Getting Tucker and would do it even if Smith was in the deal. Paredes (better😬) and Smith with a smaller piece is as high as I would go. 

They're doing that because they had Heyman on, so same source.

[LBiittner]

16 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think Smith has the highest ceiling of any of the Cubs prospects and that's not shiny new toy infatuation.  The power, average, K%, and ability to play 3B combination make for a very exciting potential.  No idea if he reaches it, but that's where I see him and I'd hate to lose him.

Two other things not necessarily directed at you but:

1. It's Paredes, one A, two Es.

2. Heyman is the only person who has even considered that the Astros are asking for BOTH Paredes and Suzuki and I really wish people would stop reposting what looks to be obviously erroneous reporting at this point.

My only concern. There was a response from seya agent Wolfe was quoted in NY times and shadeve Sharma reported about jed asking if seya would waive ntc. It was also discussed on the score radio yesterday.

Edited December 12, 2024 by LBiittner
Totally f'd up

[KCCub]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

2. Heyman is the only person who has even considered that the Astros are asking for BOTH Paredes and Suzuki and I really wish people would stop reposting what looks to be obviously erroneous reporting at this point.

There was this who others pointed out has a connected following ("Eno Saris, Jim Passan, Paul Sporer, Marc Craig and a bunch of others."). Also, no one has refuted the ask/reporting. What is most likely the case imo is that was the Astros initial "shoot the moon" ask and Jed said hell no.