2024 Spring Training Game Thread

[chibears55]

I hope Bote makes an mlb team this season 

[Stratos]

Seems like PCA may have an issue with velocity, especially up in the zone.  Makes sense given his golf-like swing.  He seems to be behind on fastballs a lot, including during his short stint last year in MLB.  Statcast says he saw 51 fastballs in the MLB last year and had a whiff % of 52% on those fastballs.  To compare, Wisdom's biggest whiff% pitches last year was breaking balls at 43%.

PCA says he's been working on getting to pitches up over the winter.  I think he definitely needs some AAA time to work on it.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Lol he's gotten on base in 7 of his 14 PAs

Mervis has had a good eye for sure this ST.  He looks a tad frustrated the last couple of games.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Is that an evidentiary example of his poor play at 3rd?

Like they said, he bobbled the ball on the transfer on a potential double-play then rushed the throw to get the runner at 1B and threw off mark.

A few games ago I saw Morel charge in to take the in-between hop on a grounder instead of the long or short hop.  Luckily he made the play.

I'm hoping he just needs lots of reps.  But he should have taken a gazillion grounders at 3B over the winter you'd think, which is a bit worrisome.  But he's made good plays at 3B this ST too, his hands/reactions seem quick enough, hopefully its mostly just the judgement stuff, which can improve with reps.  It's still Feb and hasn't play in live games since Winter Ball, and i'm sure he's getting reps in on the days he isn't playing.  Not worried about anything in Feb.

[Stratos]

Sucks for Davis on the concussion.  I've been beaned flush on the head when I was younger, not MLB mph obviously, but it still concussed me slightly, enough to get checked out at the ER to be safe.  Mostly just some sensitivity to light for a week or 2.  Maybe he woke up with a bit of a headache too.

[LBiittner]

12 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I hope Bote makes an mlb team this season 

This would free up 5 million

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

This would free up 5 million

The only way Bote makes a major league team that is not the Cubs (and he isn’t making the Cubs) is if the Cubs release him and another team signs him for league minimum. That would be what the Cubs save. They only save $5M if they trade him and his entire contract. I don’t see that happening. 

[LBiittner]

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The only way Bote makes a major league team that is not the Cubs (and he isn’t making the Cubs) is if the Cubs release him and another team signs him for league minimum. That would be what the Cubs save. They only save $5M if they trade him and his entire contract. I don’t see that happening. 

You're right probably next to zero % happening

Edited March 1, 2024 by LBiittner

[BigbadB]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Like they said, he bobbled the ball on the transfer on a potential double-play then rushed the throw to get the runner at 1B and threw off mark.

A few games ago I saw Morel charge in to take the in-between hop on a grounder instead of the long or short hop.  Luckily he made the play.

I'm hoping he just needs lots of reps.  But he should have taken a gazillion grounders at 3B over the winter you'd think, which is a bit worrisome.  But he's made good plays at 3B this ST too, his hands/reactions seem quick enough, hopefully its mostly just the judgement stuff, which can improve with reps.  It's still Feb and hasn't play in live games since Winter Ball, and i'm sure he's getting reps in on the days he isn't playing.  Not worried about anything in Feb.

Last time I looked, it was ruled a hit. Did they change it to an error? It was a hard hit ball to the opposite side of his glove hand on a bit of a weird hop. Definitely playable, but if they did rule it a hit, the official scorer felt it was also not a routine ball that was misplayed. Forgiveable in my opinion since it's early spring.  I was a bit concerned about his throw to 2nd on a double play grounder, but Hoerner being a gold glover managed to turn an errant throw into a double play anyway.

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Last time I looked, it was ruled a hit. Did they change it to an error? It was a hard hit ball to the opposite side of his glove hand on a bit of a weird hop. Definitely playable, but if they did rule it a hit, the official scorer felt it was also not a routine ball that was misplayed. Forgiveable in my opinion since it's early spring.  I was a bit concerned about his throw to 2nd on a double play grounder, but Hoerner being a gold glover managed to turn an errant throw into a double play anyway.

No errors in yesterday's game, so it must have been ruled a hit.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

The only way Bote makes a major league team that is not the Cubs (and he isn’t making the Cubs) is if the Cubs release him and another team signs him for league minimum. That would be what the Cubs save. They only save $5M if they trade him and his entire contract. I don’t see that happening. 

I'd honestly probably be ok with Bote taking Wisdom's role, especially in a scenario where you go sign some bench/DH guy with a ton of power (JD being the obvious example). Lose some of the offense but I kinda hate Wisdom's offensive profile and I think you'd get back better defensive flexibility. But also, this is pretty much the definition of splitting hairs, so whatever. 

[mul21]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

Seems like PCA may have an issue with velocity, especially up in the zone.  Makes sense given his golf-like swing.  He seems to be behind on fastballs a lot, including during his short stint last year in MLB.  Statcast says he saw 51 fastballs in the MLB last year and had a whiff % of 52% on those fastballs.  To compare, Wisdom's biggest whiff% pitches last year was breaking balls at 43%.

PCA says he's been working on getting to pitches up over the winter.  I think he definitely needs some AAA time to work on it.

The encouraging part of this for me is that we have another example already on the team who had a similar problem the Cubs were able to fix in Ian Happ.  Given the raw ability of PCA and how young he is, seems like something that should be correctable.

[Jason Ross]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

Seems like PCA may have an issue with velocity, especially up in the zone.  Makes sense given his golf-like swing.  He seems to be behind on fastballs a lot, including during his short stint last year in MLB.  Statcast says he saw 51 fastballs in the MLB last year and had a whiff % of 52% on those fastballs.  To compare, Wisdom's biggest whiff% pitches last year was breaking balls at 43%.

PCA says he's been working on getting to pitches up over the winter.  I think he definitely needs some AAA time to work on it.

Hitters, in general, have issues with velo up right now. Launch angle hitting, which really is just a better way to get the ball to make contact with the bat at a more favorable plane, does struggle to getting high velocity. With Pete Crow-Armstrong, a decent amount of this is learning when to swing, and when not to swing. I've included a heat map of his swing and miss rate below, as well as his chase rate, specifically on fastballs, during his time at Triple-A

I think these two paint the picture of where I think his approach needs to mature. PCA cannot lay off high and inside, nor can he effectively hit that up and out pitch. He does make enough contact up and inside, however. This is a decent way to visualize his approach issue; he's just too aggressive as of now, unable to lay off up and way in, in hopes it's up and in the zone. I've also included PCA's swing rate with no strikes. 

He's all over the place. Compare that to Michael Busch's Triple-A swing rate with no strikes. See how much more measured it is? Now, Michael Busch is older, with a very different approach; he's very patient and waits for his pitch (this is one of the reasons why I'm really high on Busch being good at the next level...he's got great swing decisions). But PCA is just swinging wildly right now. If it's a fastball, and it's no strikes, he's just going to swing if it's in the zone, or, if it's high and inside. 

What I'm really hoping is that if he's looking slow to diagnose fastballs right now is that it's a symptom of him working to refine his approach. He's fighting his instincts right now to swing, and his mental processes will take some time to adjust. Now, I have no idea if that's the case, but what I hope. He's going to have to crawl before he can walk, and walk before he can run here. But I'm hoping this is the first step in a more measured, mature approach.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My oversimplified view of PCA is that right now there are too many holes in the boat to be a good major league hitter at the moment.  He can reduce some chase with better pitch selection/recognition, which technically includes out of the zone fastballs but I'm more thinking about wide/down/offspeed chases.  He can continue with his mechanical tweaks to avoid swinging through top of the zone heat. Ideally he does both.  But for as much as I'm looking for his response to high fastballs, it's not some easy button for pitchers where he'll hit .130 if it doesn't improve.  Show me meaningful progress in one of those with some strong AAA results and I'm fine with continuing to work on the other at the MLB level.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Caissie is getting a decent chunk of playing time, would be cool to see him in Chicago sometime this year. Or maybe I'm getting too excited over a few spring games

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

My oversimplified view of PCA is that right now there are too many holes in the boat to be a good major league hitter at the moment.  He can reduce some chase with better pitch selection/recognition, which technically includes out of the zone fastballs but I'm more thinking about wide/down/offspeed chases.  He can continue with his mechanical tweaks to avoid swinging through top of the zone heat. Ideally he does both.  But for as much as I'm looking for his response to high fastballs, it's not some easy button for pitchers where he'll hit .130 if it doesn't improve.  Show me meaningful progress in one of those with some strong AAA results and I'm fine with continuing to work on the other at the MLB level.

My big thing is the swing decisions. That heatmap of PCA on fastballs in a no strike count shows you a kid who just...does. I want to see him make better swing decisions. It won't be an easy button for pitchers, but I think that's the difference between PCA the mid 80's wRC+ hitter, and PCA who's an above 100 wRC+ hitter. Better swing decisions, better plans at the plate and you'll get the guy you want. I tend to preach patience with prospects as much as possible. I'll trade some now-time, for more development if possible. If he can show me improved swing decisions consistently, I'll let him work on the rest, as you said. But that's my issue with him; he doesn't know a good strike from a bad strike right now. And I doubt he's ever as good at that, as say, like Michael Busch, but he's got to get better.

[CubinNY]

Pete is just such a fun player to watch it's natural to want to see him in Chicago, but he still has a lot to work on to be the player everyone expects/wants him to be. Given his verve for the game and work ethic, I expect it's going to happen. He's going to be dynamic and lot of fun for a long time to come. If you have MLB.tv you can watch him in Iowa every game. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I'd honestly probably be ok with Bote taking Wisdom's role, especially in a scenario where you go sign some bench/DH guy with a ton of power (JD being the obvious example). Lose some of the offense but I kinda hate Wisdom's offensive profile and I think you'd get back better defensive flexibility. But also, this is pretty much the definition of splitting hairs, so whatever. 

I will say this, it wouldn’t bother me if they traded Wisdom for some A ballplayer and Bote did make the team. I just don’t see them doing that. But maybe with Counsell as manager things will be different.  I really don’t think Wisdom is a lock for this team. You currently have the 8 starters (Morel is either at 3rd or DH), Madrigal, Tauchman and Amaya as most likely making the team unless they are traded. That leaves a whole bunch of guys for 2 spots.  To me the last 2 spots comes down to Wisdom, D. Smith, Peralta, Cooper, Mastrobuoni, Bote, Canario & Mervis. I have Busch listed as a starter. Peralta and Smith won’t make it to start the season, if they did make it at all. For me, I would go with Mastrobuoni and Cooper. Cooper would be a nice platoon with Busch at 1st. But I am also splitting hairs when saying who I want more. 

[Bertz]

Plenty of guys make a nose to toes approach work.  Not just to the point of surviving but to the point of thriving.  We don't need every hitter to attempt to be Juan Soto.  Especially with Bellinger back obviously give Pete a little more time at Iowa to sand down some of the roughest edges, but overall just let him be him.

Of the 20 most chase prone hitters in MLB last year, 9 had above average wRC+ marks and they were collectively at a 99.  It's not a death sentence.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The only way Bote makes a major league team that is not the Cubs (and he isn’t making the Cubs) is if the Cubs release him and another team signs him for league minimum. That would be what the Cubs save. They only save $5M if they trade him and his entire contract. I don’t see that happening. 

Trade him for another bad contract that might help the team.  

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Plenty of guys make a nose to toes approach work.  Not just to the point of surviving but to the point of thriving.  We don't need every hitter to attempt to be Juan Soto.  Especially with Bellinger back obviously give Pete a little more time at Iowa to sand down some of the roughest edges, but overall just let him be him.

Of the 20 most chase prone hitters in MLB last year, 9 had above average wRC+ marks and they were collectively at a 99.  It's not a death sentence.

On its own, it's not a death sentence. Hitters can work around approach issues. With that said, PCA turned in a 67% contact rate last year when he got to Triple-A and as present, his swing decisions do appear to be a hindrance. Id say its just a new level, but his plate approach had been a question for a while, and im not sure its just being at a new level for him. He's a young kid, and at 22 years old, having polishes is normal (I could find a polish for every prospect in the system. Multiple. So it's not meant pick on him). I don't need to see him become Juan Soto, but improvement in that area seems necessary. It's something I truly believe can be ironed out, and with his glove and speed, value will be there anyways, but I'd like to see him be more selective and mature his approach. As stated, I think it's the difference of him Dalton Varsho-ing his way to 2 wins and him being a borderline all star type.  

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

On its own, it's not a death sentence. Hitters can work around approach issues. With that said, PCA turned in a 67% contact rate last year when he got to Triple-A and as present, his swing decisions do appear to be a hindrance. Id say its just a new level, but his plate approach had been a question for a while, and im not sure its just being at a new level for him. He's a young kid, and at 22 years old, having polishes is normal (I could find a polish for every prospect in the system. Multiple. So it's not meant pick on him). I don't need to see him become Juan Soto, but improvement in that area seems necessary. It's something I truly believe can be ironed out, and with his glove and speed, value will be there anyways, but I'd like to see him be more selective and mature his approach. As stated, I think it's the difference of him Dalton Varsho-ing his way to 2 wins and him being a borderline all star type.  

Nick Castellanos, Jake Burger. and Luis Robert all had chase and contact numbers in the same neighborhood as what PCA ran in AAA last year.  Julio Rodriguez wasn't super far off.  Like he's obviously got work to do but at 21 I'm not worried about it at anything beyond typical prospect attrition levels.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Nick Castellanos, Jake Burger. and Luis Robert all had chase and contact numbers in the same neighborhood as what PCA ran in AAA last year.  Julio Rodriguez wasn't super far off.  Like he's obviously got work to do but at 21 I'm not worried about it at anything beyond typical prospect attrition levels.

So, just to be 100% clear: I've said that I "truly believe this can be ironed out" and stated I believe we can find polishes on everyone. Your response makes me feel like you're maybe missing that, or suggesting that I'm overly worried here and want to be sure that it's clear I'm not. This isn't some panic post on PCA; this all started in a discussion to Stratos that I don't think the root of PCA's issue is the swing mechanics but more of a process concern (one that people have had for years on Pete Crow-Armstrong). I'm not trying to suggest any prospect death knell here. The process and the plate approach do need cleaning. 

Without any statcast data from Castellanos, Robert or Burger (all three were in Triple-A pre-2023), it would appear on the surface that based on chase/swing% that they may be similar to PCA,. but I also think there' are processes that can be hidden past that. What I can say is that looking at all three at the MLB level, they don't have the wild swing and chase rates where they're ahead in the count (or even 0-0) like PCA has shown at Triple-A. All three are more controlled than PCA today (though Burger does chase more than the other two on those types of counts). That's just one area, and these are more developed hitters, both in age, level, and experience than PCA (it's not meant as a single-issue voter here). I just wish I could see their swing decisions on specific pitches, counts and the likes at Triple-A to really compare them with Crow-Armstrong; I don't mean to sound dismissive if that's how you're taking it (please don't!), just that I really would love to compare those things and with out it, it's hard to really say if they had similar things going on deep under the hood. 

To sum it all up with a TLDR: I don't want anyone to think I hate Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just a deep dive finds a few concerns with his swing choices. All of these are things you can't be fully shocked to see from a 21 year old making his debut at Triple-A. All are solvable issues and rarely does a 21 year old not have a polish. This is where I'd really like to see PCA slow down a bit and mature as a hitter.

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

To sum it all up with a TLDR: I don't want anyone to think I hate Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just a deep dive finds a few concerns with his swing choices. All of these are things you can't be fully shocked to see from a 21 year old making his debut at Triple-A. All are solvable issues and rarely does a 21 year old not have a polish. This is where I'd really like to see PCA slow down a bit and mature as a hitter.

Do you see similarities between PCA's issues and the stuff Happ had to work on when he first came up?  Happ probably overall was more patient but he definitely had to learn to stop swinging at high FBs he can't get to.

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Do you see similarities between PCA's issues and the stuff Happ had to work on when he first came up?  Happ probably overall was more patient but he definitely had to learn to stop swinging at high FBs he can't get to.

In terms of swings and misses, yeah. Happ really struggled up top. Look at how his swing and miss profile kind of mirrors PCA!  Process wise I think they're different; Happ wasn't prone to chasing so much and was more patient. He'd chase at the top of the zone, but that was kind of it. And his swing decisions were more controlled in counts when he had the advantage. He's even more patient today, but some of those seeds were there early. I think this is in part because swing profile is similar. That launch angle approach:

He was controlled in 2017 in that he was generally swinging at the heart. He was bad at those up pitches. Here's him today:

He's gotten much better about learning what not to swing at. So PCA is a different breed, He's probably never going to be Happ and I really don't want that for him. Part of Pete Crow-Armstrong, at least, IMO, is the pure electricity he brings, and a bit of that is his aggressive nature (at the plate, in the field and on the bases). One thing I think he can learn from Happ is just to control that a wee bit. Kind of how Happ learned that maybe he just doesn't need to swing at high fastballs and it wasn't for him, I'd like PCA to do that some. I really believe with natural progression, repetitions and some targeted behaviors that's all well within reach for him. Pete Crow-Armstrong has already shown ability to adapt and grow; he changed his entire swing profile upon being traded here.