Battle of beleaguered Bears braintrusts

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

38 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Obviously there are other variables that affect SOS (like how the teams you already played do), but the Panthers have 8-7 Jacksonville and 8-7 TB left.  They would both finish either 9-8 or 8-9 (because they'd lose to the Panthers in this scenario).  Comparitively Washington has SF and Dallas left, and would be giving them each an additional win (to tie the Panthers).  I don't see a pathway for Washington to leap Carolina unless some really wild stuff happens with the teams they've already played.  New England is a bigger concern as they play Buffalo and the Jets.  But the Jets could actually lose to NE (they already have once). 

I know what you are saying about just wanting to clinch it and remove any lingering doubt but it would take a crazy scenario like:

-Carolina beats 2 straight +.500 teams fighting for playoff spots.

-Arizona losing their last 2 games (if tied the Panthers will win the tiebreaker so they have to lose out)

-New England losing their last 2 games and clinching SOS tiebreaker

It's definitely possible but all 6 of those games have to go against the Panthers (meaning Bears) for them to slip out of the top 2, and even then Carolina might crawl ahead of NE in SOS.

Feel free to quote me and laugh (and cry) when the improbable happens because, Bears

Tankathon uses the full 17 game schedule of opponents in their SOS calculations so I don't know if Washington having SF and Dallas left (good records that are already factored in) will change it much other than the fact that they would each add at least 1 more guaranteed win in this scenario.  I do realize that Carolina winning both games then helps their SOS and the other teams losing out hurts theirs, so maybe that will be enough to win back the SOS tiebreakers.  Carolina would have to beat two teams in the playoff hunt, but Jags will be missing Lawrence (again that might not be as bad as it sounds) and the Bucs could easily wrap up the division this week--I'm pretty sure they clinch the division with a win this week (playing the saints who are a game back already and would own the tiebreaker against Atlanta who are also a game back) Hopefully they would still play starters the following week, but they might only play them for some of the game.  

ETA: I suppose Carolina beating the Bucs, Washington losing to Dallas, and the patriots losing to both Buffalo and the Jets sort of counts twice in the SOS calculations since those are division opponents.  So maybe that will move the SOS tiebreakers more in Carolina's favor.  

Edited December 29, 2023 by PosterToBeNamedLater

[UMFan83]

11 minutes ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

Tankathon uses the full 17 game schedule of opponents in their SOS calculations so I don't know if Washington having SF and Dallas left (good records that are already factored in) will change it much other than the fact that they would each add at least 1 more guaranteed win in this scenario.  I do realize that Carolina winning both games then helps their SOS and the other teams losing out hurts theirs, so maybe that will be enough to win back the SOS tiebreakers.  Carolina would have to beat two teams in the playoff hunt, but Jags will be missing Lawrence (again that might not be as bad as it sounds) and the Bucs could easily wrap up the division this week--I'm pretty sure they clinch the division with a win this week (playing the saints who are a game back already and would own the tiebreaker against Atlanta who are also a game back) Hopefully they would still play starters the following week, but they might only play them for some of the game.  

ETA: I suppose Carolina beating the Bucs, Washington losing to Dallas, and the patriots losing to both Buffalo and the Jets sort of counts twice in the SOS calculations since those are division opponents.  So maybe that will move the SOS tiebreakers more in Carolina's favor.  

ahh crap i didnt realize they were already baked into the SOS.  OK, well at the very least Caronlina, Washington and NE are all very close in SOS so there are a lot of variables that can easily shift things in one direction or the other.  I do worry about Carolina playing a free falling Jacksonville team without lawrence and then TB who may be playing a meaningless game while sitting starters because they've already cliniched the division.  But I'll still lean on the improbability of all 6 things going against the Bears.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know that in a min-max way they should hold out till literal draft day on moving fields, but I expect them to break the news to him that they intend to early in the offseason as a respect thing, and it will leak 

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears will draft either this mizzu qb or one of the osu QBs. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Bears will draft either this mizzu qb or one of the osu QBs. 

These bowl games are terrible to watch now. Between kids sitting out because they're going to the draft and kids transferring, it's not making for a very good product on the field. I have no idea why they set the transfer date that early.

[profisme]

Fifita out of Arizona is one to watch over the next couple years. I would be surprised if he doesn’t get poached by a school with more NIL money. Love his moxy, toughness, and he throws a beautiful deep ball. 

[BigbadB]

So I was watching the Jets/Cleveland game Thursday. There was a play that was being reviewed and I don't remember what for now, but the strange thing that occurred during that review was they determined the play to stand as called, however, in doing the review they noticed that the defense had 12 men on the field and they called a penalty and moved them 5 yards. There was a guy who wasn't completely off the field on the snap.

I was a bit shocked they did that. I don't think I've ever seen a penalty called in this manner well after the play was over, and I also don't think that should be a thing. Anyone else see that?

[jersey cubs fan]

I’ve seen 12 men called via review and think it’s fine. 

[raw]

12-men on the field penalty is actually reviewable. A coach can challenge that a guy didn't get off the field on time, so it's fair game in a review for something else.

[BigSlick]

They actually reviewed for 12 men on the field in the OSU-Mizzou game last night too (obviously college rules are totally different than pro rules) 

 

[bukie]

For those still hoping for the hilarity of the Bears in the playoffs, here are the rooting interests:

- Bucs over Saints

- Giants over Rams

- Steelers over Seahawks 

- Vikings/Packers tie

 

As long as the Bears win and 3 of those 4 things happen, the Bears playoff hopes will survive another week.

[BigSlick]

I doubt there’s any real chance for the Bears to make the playoff but it would be nice for them to feel like they have something to play for in the last week other than The Packers, which I don’t think the players typically really care about that much (nor should they, it’s a fan thing)

[Soul]

15 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

These bowl games are terrible to watch now. Between kids sitting out because they're going to the draft and kids transferring, it's not making for a very good product on the field. I have no idea why they set the transfer date that early.

Agreed.  That OSU/Mizzou game last night was unbearable.  Seems like a terrible idea.

[Soul]

1 hour ago, BigSlick said:

I doubt there’s any real chance for the Bears to make the playoff but it would be nice for them to feel like they have something to play for in the last week other than The Packers, which I don’t think the players typically really care about that much (nor should they, it’s a fan thing)

Yeah, Flus does though.  It might lock him in for next year (if he isn’t already)

[UMFan83]

 

Ridiculous that they would decide this before the season is even over still plenty of time to blow a couple more games with over 90% win probability this year. 

[Tryptamine]

I truly hate this franchise.

[Irrelevant Dude]

The Offensive Coordinator candidates are really going to be lining up to work with Eberflus next year.

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Ridiculous that they would decide this before the season is even over still plenty of time to blow a couple more games with over 90% win probability this year. 

The McCaskey family is cheap. Nothing new here. Not going to pay another coach to collect a pay check.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

The McCaskey family is cheap. Nothing new here. Not going to pay another coach to collect a pay check.

They may very well be cheap, but I have a hard time believing that Eberflus' $4M is anything more than a rounding error compared to the money the Bears bring in each year.

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

They may very well be cheap, but I have a hard time believing that Eberflus' $4M is anything more than a rounding error compared to the money the Bears bring in each year.

I know that and you know that. Unfortunately the ones who matter don't believe that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The moment they won a couple of games and went from the worst in the league to just regular bad, his job was safe. That's the point of "rebuilding." To reset the expectations so low that everyone's job is safe for a few years.

[Tryptamine]

They're really going to pull a Chicago Bulls on us aren't they? They'll Bring everyone back off a mediocre to bad team and expect a different result.

[jersey cubs fan]

This isn’t a cheapness issue. They’ve paid multiple head coaches simultaneously before and will do it again. The issue is they are desperate for stability. They don’t want to go through head coach turnover every 2/3 years. They want the Lovie stability to return. Eberflus is their idea of a modern Lovie. Despite a couple quit jobs in 2022, the players by and large play hard for him and his side of the ball got better. That’s their justification. It won’t work, but the thought process of pretty obvious. The question is how deep a hole the next guy will be in when he replaces Eberflus in 2026. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by jersey cubs fan

[BigSlick]

42 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

This isn’t a cheapness issue. They’ve paid multiple head coaches simultaneously before and will do it again. The issue is they are desperate for stability. They don’t want to go through head coach turnover every 2/3 years. They want the Lovie stability to return. Eberflus is their idea of a modern Lovie. Despite a couple quit jobs in 2022, the players by and large play hard for him and his side of the ball got better. That’s their justification. It won’t work, but the thought process of pretty obvious. The question is how deep a hole the next guy will be in when he replaces Eberflus in 2026. 

I think this is right. It’s not about money, it’s that they don’t want to be on the coach carousel every 2-3 years. 

Oh, Eberflus. On the one hand, he’s one of the worst in-game coaches I’ve ever seen. Important 4th down calls, challenges, time outs and clock management…egregiously bad. His whole gimmick when he wins the coin toss and decides to accept the ball rather than defer? Strictly a negative call, will always cost you points in the long run. These factors alone should be disqualifying. He shouldn’t be the head coach of the chicago bears.

The silver lining is that he’s a very good defensive coordinator and his players seem to really like him and play hard for him. So there’s some consolation if he is thrust on us another season. The roster is trending up, and I expect it will only improve next year. This team should compete for a playoff spot next year, even with a rookie QB. But Eberflus will lose you a couple games every year you should win. That’s inexcusable for me, but I’m not the one making decisions.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

They're really going to pull a Chicago Bulls on us aren't they? They'll Bring everyone back off a mediocre to bad team and expect a different result.

I don't think the Bulls are a fair comparison.  The Bears have assets and financial flexibility, while the Bulls are up against the cap with mediocre/bad contracts and no help coming through the draft for several years. Taking the coaching decisions out of the equation, the two rosters have their arrows pointed in different directions.