Your end of season thoughts

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Lost in all this is Ohtani could imaginarily play 1B as well as Soto, is both actually available and a Better/More generational player 

And Ohtani will cost way more because he MIGHT pitch again. I am also not sure any team would want him playing first next year and risk further injury. 

[squally1313]

I think the correct way to phrase the argument for leaving Soto in left field is that it's theoretically easier to find offensive production in the pool of first basemen than it is in the pool of left fielders, and so Soto in left/hypothetical generic first baseman is going to give you a better offensive output in total than Soto at first/hypothetical generic left fielder. But, that doesn't apply here, because Ian Happ exists and is a good hitter for any position and so we're fine. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

We don't know that he wouldn't be absolutely horrendous at 1B too though. See Vlad.

Didn’t Vlad Jr win a gold glove? 

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The mere fact of paying him based on a position he can't play is negative value to the team.

There's only a hand full of OF'er that are worse than him defensively.  He literally costs his team runs by merely being out there.  I'm just assuming that he can't be worse at 1B.  And if he can't play 1B, he won't cost the team any runs as a DH.  That's what's best for the team.

So we can have a greater hitter who has a -9 OAA and a -8 runs prevented, or a great hitter who has a zero at both.  That's a pretty simple decision.  I'd rather have my defender not be negative.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Lost in all this is Ohtani could imaginarily play 1B as well as Soto, is both actually available and a Better/More generational player 

Don't give up Tom!

[Cuzi]

This is how generational Juan Soto is...

We want to talk about how good the Dodgers do things. The Dodgers traded for Mookie Betts with 1 year remaining on his deal. They extended him for 12 years/$365. He was arguably the second best baseball player in the game, he hit at the top, he defended at the top, he ran the bases at the top, he can even play MI.

We are sitting here talking about how we can make it fit with Juan Soto for at least $40M more than Mookie Betts to play 1B/DH.

If you look at their full seasons, Mookie Betts averages 6.73 WAR and Soto averages 5.16.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

He would likely be the better 1B but it's a loss in value from him staying in LF and moving Soto to 1B.

Financial value or field value??  If a LF costs the team 10 runs a year, and cost's the team 5 runs a year at 1B, how is that a loss in value?  His salary is the same.  And if he DH, he would cost the team even less runs.  Zero.  But his salary never changes.  Once he's signed, he should play where he helps the team the most.  And if that's not putting on a glove, then so be it.  It's about winning at that point.  The contract is already signed.

This value loss sounds more like an argument during contract negotiations.  Not after.

[thawv]

46 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do the Dodgers really only sign guys for a year or 2, though? Maybe with role players, but even then they've had Chris Taylor around since 2017. Feel like they dont keep or replace players any more than any other team. They just spend their money AND develop players, while the Cubs are acting like it has to be one or the other.

Your last sentence could not be more accurate!

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

This is how generational Juan Soto is...

We want to talk about how good the Dodgers do things. The Dodgers traded for Mookie Betts with 1 year remaining on his deal. They extended him for 12 years/$365. He was arguably the second best baseball player in the game, he hit at the top, he defended at the top, he ran the bases at the top, he can even play MI.

We are sitting here talking about how we can make it fit with Juan Soto for at least $40M more than Mookie Betts to play 1B/DH.

If you look at their full seasons, Mookie Betts averages 6.73 WAR and Soto averages 5.16.

You can always cherry pick a contract to suggest if this guy made this much how can you give the other guy this much. Sure, Betts signed for less that what Soto will probably get. He also signed a few years ago.
But why not use Judge. who at 30 signed a 9 year deal at $40M a year. Bogaerts who got along $30M a year until he is 40. Soto will probably get $35M (at least) and for 10-12 years. And that will be a reasonable contract at this time. 

[17 Seconds]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Based on the history of 1B contracts? Probably something like 8 years with a slight bump in AAV. Say $30M. Call it 8/240.

if you're topping out at 240, then you aren't serious about soto. it seems like the ricketts really did a number on you.

Edited October 4, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You can always cherry pick a contract to suggest if this guy made this much how can you give the other guy this much. Sure, Betts signed for less that what Soto will probably get. He also signed a few years ago.
But why not use Judge. who at 30 signed a 9 year deal at $40M a year. Bogaerts who got along $30M a year until he is 40. Soto will probably get $35M (at least) and for 10-12 years. And that will be a reasonable contract at this time. 

Well Judge just broke records the year before and if you count his full seasons averages 6.9 WAR. Bogaerts played SS and the Padres paid him as a shortstop and moved him to 3rd base. Didn't work out too well for them and his contract is one of the key factors in Soto even being talked about as a trade target. Not sure we want to emulate the Padres right now.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

if you're topping out at 240, then you aren't serious about soto. it seems like the ricketts really did a number on you.

 

You're right. I'm not serious at all about Soto if it means you are moving him to 1B. Glad you picked up on that. I, nor any FO in baseball would give Soto a contract like that to play 1B.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[17 Seconds]

47 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

This is how generational Juan Soto is...

We want to talk about how good the Dodgers do things. The Dodgers traded for Mookie Betts with 1 year remaining on his deal. They extended him for 12 years/$365. He was arguably the second best baseball player in the game, he hit at the top, he defended at the top, he ran the bases at the top, he can even play MI.

We are sitting here talking about how we can make it fit with Juan Soto for at least $40M more than Mookie Betts to play 1B/DH.

If you look at their full seasons, Mookie Betts averages 6.73 WAR and Soto averages 5.16.

mookie was 27 when he signed his extension. it was also 3 years ago.

Edited October 4, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

You're right. I'm not serious at all about Soto if it means you are moving him to 1B. Glad you picked up on that.

people keep telling you that his defense in corner OF is so bad that moving to 1b won't hurt his value that much, you just don't want to hear it.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

people keep telling you that his defense in corner OF is so bad that moving to 1b won't hurt his value that much, you just don't want to hear it.

Its like me saying that you dont want to hear how no team in baseball allocates that kind of money to 1B because its the least valuable position on the diamond.

[Bertz]

53 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yeah, they've done their fair share of that with rentals too, Machado and Scherzer being the two biggest I can recall.

Yeah there's Turner, all their various star-caliber rentals, the pitchers they reclaimed like Heaney and Anderson last year, etc.  I think Justin Turner's pretty much the only non superstar they've gone more than ~3 years on in a long while.

You do, to Squally's point, have to have a solid baseline of talent (both majors and minors) on hand to operate this way, but I think at the moment the org actually does.   I'd be very reticent this winter or next to give out any medium length contracts to 3ish WAR players right now.  Go short term or go star hunting IMO.  If/when the farm gets back to a sad state like it was in 2018 again we can reverse course but for right now I'd hate to sign e.g. a Jordan Montgomery

[17 Seconds]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Its like me saying that you dont want to hear how no team in baseball allocates that kind of money to 1B because its the least valuable position on the diamond.

you keep saying that, as if 24 year old 1Bs with juan soto's track record just come onto the market regularly. they don't.. saying "nobody has paid a player like that" is irrelevant, because there are almost never players like him hitting the market at that age. and saying "nobody will pay that for a 1b" over and over doesn't mean that's true. you're speculating.

it all comes down to the fact that you are seemingly okay with soto as a terrible corner OF for 400 million, but not as a 1b, which just doesn't make sense.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Would any team try Soler at 1B?

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

No he won’t in the context of $400 million for Soto at 1B, and who is counting either way! Get the better, actually available player and all that nonsense works itself out 

Tom if the Cubs sign Ohtani and trade for Soto who should play first and who should play DH

[Tim]

59 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You're right. I'm not serious at all about Soto if it means you are moving him to 1B. Glad you picked up on that. I, nor any FO in baseball would give Soto a contract like that to play 1B.

You also keep refusing to say how much you'd be willing to pay Soto as a LF.

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Well Judge just broke records the year before and if you count his full seasons averages 6.9 WAR. Bogaerts played SS and the Padres paid him as a shortstop and moved him to 3rd base. Didn't work out too well for them and his contract is one of the key factors in Soto even being talked about as a trade target. Not sure we want to emulate the Padres right now.

Are you just making things up at this point? Bogaerts played 146 games at SS this year. He hasn’t played 3B since 2014.

[Stratos]

I watched Jed Hoyer's entire end of season press conference and didn't really learn anything.

Reporters tried to get him to say whether they'd go over the lux tax threshold next year or about resigning Cody and he obviously wouldn't bite.

He was supportive of Ross but didn't say if he'd be back or not.   They decide on any coaching staff changes within a week or 2.  IMO Ross will be back.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My end of season thoughts: They're in better shape than I thought they were at the beginning of the season.   Hoyer has earned some credit.  They've proven fairly adept at cobbling together a good MLB offense out of undervalued parts.  They were a top-5 team in the national league that got unlucky.
 

I don't think tanking is generally a good idea, and I hate prospect fetishization, but a consistent farm system pipeline is the only way to have permanent sustained success and I like where we're headed.  I think the Iowa Effect is fooling people on a lot of the hitters (Mervis, Canario) but I think PCA and Wicks establish themselves as MLB regulars out of the gate next season with Horton not far behind.  There's no one I'm absolutely in love with after that, but the volume is there that it's likely some guys will emerge.

[gocubs218]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I watched Jed Hoyer's entire end of season press conference and didn't really learn anything.

Reporters tried to get him to say whether they'd go over the lux tax threshold next year or about resigning Cody and he obviously wouldn't bite.

He was supportive of Ross but didn't say if he'd be back or not.   They decide on any coaching staff changes within a week or 2.  IMO Ross will be back.

Jed doesn’t need to say whether or not Ross will be back next year when Ricketts already did it for him. 

[Stratos]

Soto is an excellent hitter but I think as a player he's a bit overrated because he's a bad fielder and is going to get even worse as he ages.  There's no difference between giving up a hit with poor defense vs getting a hit.

He's a 5-6 WAR player which makes him about as valuable as Swanson, though much younger obviously.  Would be nice to acquire him.