Your end of season thoughts

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

If the Cubs do pull off an Alonso trade an extension has to follow. What do you guys predict? 8 yrs 170 mil?

God no, please.

To answer Tom - speed is a big part of athleticism. At least that seems to be the biggest correlation on which 1B maintain their production. Going through that list of 1B:

1. Pujols - one of the best players ever until age 30. Horrible waste of playing time and money after age 32
2. Bagwell lasted longer, but was also unusually athletic
3. Big Frank was amazing through age 29. He managed two good seasons after that.
4. Thome his his peak later and lasted a little longer. But he was much worse after age 33 than before it.
5. Cabrera started his decline at 31, played pretty well through 33, then fell off a bloody cliff.
6. Palmeiro lasted longer. But he was also athletic enough to be somewhat tolerable in the OF. 
7. Freeman is a big outlier. But he's also very athletic for a 1B.
8. Votto fell off the cliff after 33
9. Goldschmidt is aging reasonably well, but is also sneaky fast.
10. Olerud is a an odd entry here - he's not a slugger at all. He still fell off a cliff after age 33.
11. Berkman became inconsistent after age 28, had his last great year at age 32, was pretty bad afterwards
12. Helton was great through age 30, had a couple of okay seasons at 31 and 33, but was otherwise bad
13. McGwire used steroids to stay strong through age 36. Is that still an option?
14. Mauer was pretty useless after age 30
15. Giambi was never the same after age 32, but had a bit of bounce for a couple years after putting up a 0.0 war year at age 33. He was negative WAR after that.
16. Teixeira is a really good comp for Alonso...and was already in decline at age 30 and was a horrible drag on his team after age 31
17. Delgado had a softer decline than most, but was still mostly a 2-win player after age 31
18. McGriff averaged about (eyeballing it here) 5+ war per year through age 30. He averaged about 2 war after. He hung around better than most, though.
19. Grace had a soft decline. But again, not a slugger.
20. Ryan Zimmerman basically fell apart after age 28.

The next guys on the list are Adrian Gonzalez, Rizzo, Derrek Lee, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mo freaking Vaughn.

Who on that list inspires hope in Alonso being productive on a five year contract that starts at age 30 (there's no chance he gets eight years on the market)?

[Tim]

Seriously, someone find me some good comps that give any level of faith in a slow, slugging 1B aging gracefully.

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Tim said:

God no, please.

To answer Tom - speed is a big part of athleticism. At least that seems to be the biggest correlation on which 1B maintain their production. Going through that list of 1B:

1. Pujols - 17.3 fWAR
2. Bagwell 30.5 fWAR
3. Big Frank 12.3 fWAR
4. Thome 21.1 fWAR
5. Cabrera 22.8 fWAR
6. Palmeiro 25.7 fWAR
7. Freeman 23 fWAR in 4 years
8. Votto 21.8 fWAR
9. Goldschmidt 22.7 fWAR
10. Olerud 20.6 fWAR
11. Berkman 20.9 fWAR
12. Helton 17.8 fWAR
13. McGwire 27.4 fWAR
14. Mauer 11.1 fWAR
15. Giambi 25 fWAR
16. Teixeira 11 fWAR
17. Delgado 18.1 fWAR
18. McGriff 14.3 fWAR
19. Grace 18.4 fWAR
20. Ryan Zimmerman 4.9 fWAR

 

Who on that list inspires hope in Alonso being productive on a five year contract that starts at age 30 (there's no chance he gets eight years on the market)?

Looking at those numbers (their fWAR production in their age 30-34 years) above....about 15 of the 20 of them?

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

Stroman's money is already in the salary number for next year.  If he opts out, another 23.7 million is added to the cap space. 

Right now, they are 78.4 million under the CBT.  Which includes all player benefits, all dead money, and all 0-3 players.  Using your numbers of 18 million in arb guys,  they are 68.4 million.  No option players are in this number.  Let's give Gomes his 6 million, bringing it down to 62.8 million under.  IF by chance Storman opts out, they would be 86.5 million under the CBT.  If you want to throw Kyle in at 12 million, we are are 66.5 million under the cap.

Using Sportac's luxury tax payroll calculations, they are at 153m payroll which includes committed money + arb and pre-arb player estimates, dead money, benefits, minor league 40-man salaries etc.  That doesn't include Stroman, Gomes, Hendricks coming back.  So they're at 84 million in space. 

Add Stroman and Gomes, plus Hendricks at 12m and they're at 42.4m.  They spent about 7m on Fulmer/Boxberger this year so let's assume they acquire another 2 veteran pen arms for the same in 2024, so we're at about 34.5.  Consider they'll keep at least 5 million in space under the cap and they're at 29.5m in payroll spending left, which would be just enough for Bellinger, or Hoskins + Bader + around 4-5 million left for an upgrade somewhere else like the pen.

[Stratos]

39 minutes ago, Tim said:

Seriously, someone find me some good comps that give any level of faith in a slow, slugging 1B aging gracefully.

Adam Dunn?  His career was dunn after age 32.  Richie Sexson's production was done after age 31.  Ryan Howard done after 31.  You really can't count on any player being good after age 32.  I'd stay away from Alonso.

At least Bellinger has 2 years on him, he probably has 4-5 prime years left.  Sign him to a Swanson-like deal, maybe a little less?  6/160?

Edited October 3, 2023 by Stratos

[Dfan25]

Jesse Rogers thinks the Cubs will be looking at big trades this offseason . Alonso on radar and added that Alonso wants to come to the Cubs FWIW .

[squally1313]

Edwin Encarnacion, the 24th player on your list, from ages 30-34: 267/366/533, 189 HRs, 143 wRC, 18.1 fWAR

Separately, but also related, this whole "Don't guarantee contracts past age 32 for anyone" should lead to being real successful in free agency. 

[UMFan83]

55 minutes ago, Tim said:

Seriously, someone find me some good comps that give any level of faith in a slow, slugging 1B aging gracefully.

Jose Abreu?

[Stratos]

15 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Seems like Hoyer is really enamored with Alonso. Would much rather have Soto, bet it's mostly a contract thing. Alonso will probably make half of what Soto will eventually sign for. 

After 2024, the Cubs should have more payroll room for the offense to make a splash because we could see more young guys coming up and taking starting spots in the rotation and hopefully on the position side.  If we assume Stroman and Hendricks are back for 2024, in 2025 those type of expensive arms may not be needed as they may be replaced with guys like Horton, Brown, and Wicks (with Taillon and Steele) if all goes well.

On the position side, if even 3 out of PCA, Shaw, Morel, Caissie, Mervis, McGeary, can be regulars in 2025+ you get some more surplus and payroll room as well.  If e.g. PCA can hold down CF, Morel or Shaw at 3B, and one of Mervis/McGeary/Caissie/Canario etc at 1B or DH then they should have payroll room for a big FA signing after 2024 like Soto, who would probably DH.  You should still have room for Bellinger.

Stroman, Hendricks, Mancini, Bote, Smyly off the books after next season is a savings of about 58 million to spend next off season, though I think Steele's arbitration should eat a bit of that.  But most other guys are either locked into contract or pre-arb.

[Tim]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Edwin Encarnacion, the 24th player on your list, from ages 30-34: 267/366/533, 189 HRs, 143 wRC, 18.1 fWAR

Separately, but also related, this whole "Don't guarantee contracts past age 32 for anyone" should lead to being real successful in free agency. 

That's why I stated that my #1 target in FA this year is only 24 years old.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

That's why I stated that my #1 target in FA this year is only 24 years old.

That's fine with me. He takes Stroman's spot (and his money) after 2024, and we can still pay the dong hitting first baseman to give us, apparently, 15-25 wins from 2025-2030. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think 'fat and slow' is the wrong lens to look in terms of aging, though it probably is somewhat correlated to the actual thing that helps these players age: Hit tool.  The recent 30+ 1B to buck the 2010s trend of 1B aging cliffs were guys running high BABIPs and regularly flirting with .300.  That's where the Alonso risk comes from IMO, not the fact that he's got poor sprint speed or a belly.

[squally1313]

Lol BBTV has Morel for Alonso as a 'moderate overpay' by the Cubs. DO IT

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Alot of people fell for this trap last year when locked into Correa. Being young-*er* doesn't make you young! Bellinger's more worrisome injury history definitely ups the mileage and shrinks the gap.

I'm honestly stunned at how readily Bellinger's shoulder stuff is brushed aside. Not that he isn't good or that this year didn't help that outlook, but we've casually trashed highly accomplished, winning Cubs for less, very recently, and without regret

I didn't want Correa last year, or anyone on a 10 year deal, and I still don't.  I agree that Bellinger's injury and poor last few seasons before 2023 are worrisome, I'm always skeptical of an unusually good season before FA, and he seemed to get pretty lucky this year on base hits falling in, I expect the career-high BABIP and AVG to go down maybe to around .270-.280, but he's still a good player and a great athlete with 5 tools who can play multiple positions where we have holes.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

That's why I stated that my #1 target in FA this year is only 24 years old.

Maybe I missed something. Who is this 24 yr old free agent you want? 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe I missed something. Who is this 24 yr old free agent you want? 

I think Tim is talking about Yamamoto, but he's 25 (I think).  

[WhyCantWeWin]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe I missed something. Who is this 24 yr old free agent you want? 

Yamamoto I think

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Yamamoto I think

Ok. Got it. Well if they are going for young talent I think you go to SD and trade for Soto. Sign him for 10 years. Pay what is needed to get that done. Then sign Yamamoto. Fill the roster accordingly. Soto could DH or the Cubs can trade either Happ or Suzuki for a 1st baseman of equal value and let Soto play a corner outfield spot. I would let Morel play 3rd full time. They should be working with him now on how to play 3rd. Maybe sign Bader as insurance on PCA. Give Mervis the job at first if you don’t trade for a first baseman. 

[chibears55]

I dislike the first 2 months of the offseason because I'm just not a fan of rumors in which 99% are just guesses and false.

Get me to the winter meetings in December when movements starts to happen more frequently afterwards. 

Also, I hope they work with Morel at 3B over the winter in case they don't land one of the better 3Bmen, this way too they can look to add more of a known slugging type DH.

 

 

[Y2J]

Funny how many are flip flopping their stance on Bellinger from the trade deadline thread. 😄

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Edwin Encarnacion, the 24th player on your list, from ages 30-34: 267/366/533, 189 HRs, 143 wRC, 18.1 fWAR

Separately, but also related, this whole "Don't guarantee contracts past age 32 for anyone" should lead to being real successful in free agency. 

Guys like Encarnacion are the exception, not the typical case.  You don't make decisions based on exceptions and wishful thinking, you make them based on the data of what is most likely to occur.

The point is even great position players typically decline after age 32, and many times steeply.  Any GM would be a fool to want to pay a position player past age 32 at salaries based on their performance in their late 20's..  Sometimes you do have to pay a very good player past their early 30's in order to sign them, but I guarantee you Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter.  Hoyer signed Happ and Suzuki through their prime years and these are good contracts.  Contracts like Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Judge etc are bad contracts and usually end up a big money pit for teams.

[CubinNY]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Guys like Encarnacion are the exception, not the typical case.  You don't make decisions based on exceptions and wishful thinking, you make them based on the data of what is most likely to occur.

The point is even great position players typically decline after age 32, and many times steeply.  Any GM would be a fool to want to pay a position player past age 32 at salaries based on their performance in their late 20's..  Sometimes you do have to pay a very good player past their early 30's in order to sign them, but I guarantee you Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter.  Hoyer signed Happ and Suzuki through their prime years and these are good contracts.  Contracts like Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Judge etc are bad contracts and usually end up a big money pit for teams.

How much is a World Series worth? The contracts are the contracts, and players are underpaid for the first six years they are in the league. To use a common phrase, the system is rigged. Pay the man to put you in a position to win a championship. 

You can dollar and cents yourself right into a ****** team.  

Edited October 4, 2023 by CubinNY

[CubUgly]

I predicted 81-81 so not all that far off from what happened, how we got there was not totally expected.  Honestly, probably should have been better, for every game we won that we were fortunate to - in my opinion we lost at least two we should not have for many and varied reasons.

The roster was flawed and compromised early - that's on Jed...and that issue was compounded by the fact that Rossi doubled down on that in my view and played the pieces (Hosmer/Mancini, etc) way too often and in positions on the field and in the lineup that just really made no sense way too often.

We hung on to those two way too long.  Then we got hot once we got rid of them and started using Belli at first more, got the bullpen stabilized and went on a hot streak.

The bullpen got worn out late and that was really a big factor.  I thought at the time of the trade deadline we needed one more lefty bullpen piece.  How hard we tried and how close we came to that I have no idea but I see that as a key mistake. 

Overall a real roller coaster emotionally - high highs and low lows.

Anyone here can tell you I'm not a big Rossi fan.  I think he's a good culture guy.  It's hard to define how many wins that got us but I would concede it's worth some.  And I know I've been told here the bench coaching and decisions on the margins are subjective too and I agree but in my opinion he cost us more than the average manager in that regard. 

[CubinNY]

I mean on any given team 85% of the 26 guys are grossly underpaid. But do go on 

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Stratos said:

Using Sportac's luxury tax payroll calculations, they are at 153m payroll which includes committed money + arb and pre-arb player estimates, dead money, benefits, minor league 40-man salaries etc.  That doesn't include Stroman, Gomes, Hendricks coming back.  So they're at 84 million in space. 

Add Stroman and Gomes, plus Hendricks at 12m and they're at 42.4m.  They spent about 7m on Fulmer/Boxberger this year so let's assume they acquire another 2 veteran pen arms for the same in 2024, so we're at about 34.5.  Consider they'll keep at least 5 million in space under the cap and they're at 29.5m in payroll spending left, which would be just enough for Bellinger, or Hoskins + Bader + around 4-5 million left for an upgrade somewhere else like the pen.

His money certainly is in that number.  He's under contract next year and his payroll reflects that.  If he opts out of his contract, the money is removed from their payroll.  It's not a team option, or a mutual option.  He's under contract.  That money is in the salary.

If we forget about trying to predict arb numbers and who's option is going to be picked up, right now they are 78.38 million under the CBT.  If Stroman opts out of his money, which is 23.667 against the cap, they are then  about 102 million under the threshold.   If Stroman doesn't opt out, the 78.4 million is the number that the Cubs will work from.