Your end of season thoughts

[CubinNY]

Mine: I had them in the 70s win total. The early part of the season was rough. It got more fun when they brought Morel up. They never could get the bullpen figured out. Some of that was due to injuries. Some of it was due to lack of talent. But they have to do a better job in ST figuring out a pen. They do not have enough talent to give up games in April and May trying to cobble together who to go to in high leverage situations. It’s not a good tactic. 
 

Overall I enjoyed the season although it was frustrating. They’re going to have to decide if Ross is the right man to break in rookies and younger players, because the next couple of years they are going to be percolating up. I think Ross is an ass, but he’s not a terrible manager. He suffers from a lot of the same symptoms of many managers who were not good players but hung around the majors for a long time. 
 

it should be an interesting offseason to say the least. 

 Thanks to the new owners for modernizing the site, and thanks to everyone here who makes our dysfunctional family fun enough to hang out with. I love you all, 

Edited October 1, 2023 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

I had them at 77 wins, so they outperformed my expectations.  With that said, I'm not particularly optimistic about next year. The rotation needs massive investment and replacing Bellinger's production is going to be hard.

[UK]

Hoyer needs to fire Ross, bring back Bellinger, and acquire some FAs. Exceeded expectations while disappointing at the same time.

[JHBulls]

83 wins is a good result given 75-80 wins seemed to be the consensus in April, however, the final 17 games was a river of horsefeathers that the team  couldn’t swim out of. Missing out of the postseason by 1 game is pretty disappointing thanks to the final weeks of the season. 

Jed Hoyer needs to get to work so 2024 isn’t another lost year late into the piece. Start with that BP because yikes. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by JHBulls

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I had them at 84 wins, so in aggregate this is about what I expected, though it was a very frustrating way to get there.  I'm encouraged that they simultaneously showed some proficiency in their acquisitions(and can keep existing players) while also not hemorrhaging all the value after the year and being on a treadmill to maintain the status quo.  They're primed to supplement the roster from within, in FA, and in trade to make another leap next year.

Where I have concerns is that while they'll have room to spend, they have committed enough money to the existing roster that they won't be able to exclusively spend their way to the top.  Can they make the trades needed to get the team over the hump?  Jed hasn't overseen a team with true competitive aspirations so it's somewhat understandable, but this team needs the type of moves that brought the previous era Fowler, Montero, and of course Arrieta/Strop.  These are especially true because this team needs to be able to withstand the imperfections of breaking in prospects and not be expecting PCA to have a 110 wRC+ from the jump or for Horton to immediately start the 2nd game of a playoff series.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Where are people at with Stroman? He's not going to opt out after the injury, or is he?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Where are people at with Stroman? He's not going to opt out after the injury, or is he?

He's a weird dude so I'm not gonna be floored if he does something against the grain, but the signs are he's not going to.

[WhyCantWeWin]

I think this team can be playoff caliber, Hoyer needs to man the horsefeathers up and hand out some big contracts. Soto remains the crown jewel, if the Padres are serious about shedding salary the Cubs should be right there to pounce. Also fire David Ross. 

[squally1313]

The positives:

• Think it has to start with Dansby, given the importance placed on getting a shortstop last year, and seeing the struggles that the other options have gone through. Will throw Nico in here, who ended up 26th in baseball in offensive fWAR. The fact that our two most valuable players had a 104 and a 102 wRC on year gives me a little pause, but assuming you trust the people who put the overall metrics together, it makes their contributions very repeatable, and barring injury we've got two top 30 offensive players locked up for under $40m/year total for the forseeable future. Outside of the Braves, I think most teams would enjoy our position (Seager/Semien are better, but also $61m next year). 
• Steele. I'm not totally in on him being a top 5 pitcher in baseball or anything (I just need more Ks), and I think my pitching expectations were kinda broken by Arrieta's two year stretch. But as long as we didn't wreck his arm down the stretch, all the underlying data points to him being a top 15 pitcher. 
• Suzuki. Had kinda just assumed his ceiling would be Ian Happ, which is plenty productive but another 'simply' above average regular that leaves us one less spot for a stud hitter. Those last two months were really impressive, and knowing he has that ability to carry the offense for long stretches is really encouraging.
• I think the farm development was generally positive. Always easier to point to the successes (Horton, Canario, PCA, Shaw, etc) than the failures (Davis, I'm sure there are others). And I think next year is about all I've got in terms of patience for the 'the waves are coming' argument. But there's a lot of talent there.

Not positives:

• To continue that last point....we need to nail what we do with that talent. We aren't going to be in a scenario where we're going to roll into April as easy Central favorites. The Brewers will be there, who knows on the Reds and Cards. Maybe you throw PCA in the deep end, but there isn't going to be a lot of room for Canario, I guess still Mervis, etcs, and having them sit in AAA and get written off the second their OPS drops below .900 isn't a good use of anyones time. We didn't really get anything out of the system this year, reinforcement wise, Wicks aside. Can't have that happen again. My vote is to put three of them in a package for a starter of some sort, but in an era where 20-25 are 'going for it' every year, I'm not sure who is trading a starter for prospects. 
• The rest of the rotation. Two straight years with injuries for Stroman, if he's even coming back. The rest is shaky, and very BABIP dependent. The starters were 25th in baseball in K/9. Maybe Horton fixes that eventually, maybe Yamamoto does. But needs to get better. I'm fine, I think, with Kyle as the 5th pitcher. Steele is better, I think Taillon is a safe bet to be better. I would like two other guys who can clear that bar.
• The bullpen. I have no idea how to fix it. But it needs to be fixed. No more throwing stuff at the wall until July. Go find a couple shutdown guys.

In terms of the Bellinger question, I'm pretty neutral on whether to bring him back or not, but if we decide to...you got to see what the PCA market is out there. Not sure if this guy posts here, but saw this tweet and thought it proved the opposite of what he was trying to say.

Those are two very different groups in terms of offensive output for the same amount of money. Pay him to play CF or find a different option. And, more importantly, shore up the staff. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

In terms of the Bellinger question, I'm pretty neutral on whether to bring him back or not, but if we decide to...you got to see what the PCA market is out there. Not sure if this guy posts here, but saw this tweet and thought it proved the opposite of what he was trying to say.

Those are two very different groups in terms of offensive output for the same amount of money. Pay him to play CF or find a different option. And, more importantly, shore up the staff. 

One thing I've been thinking about the last couple weeks is that we have two years of data on Seiya in RF now and while it's not a particular problem, he's not been a strong defensive asset.  Given that PCA has demonstrated he is not going to be ready to carry an every day offensive load from opening day(and while I hope not, possibly not ever) and no entrenched DH option on the roster, I think you can make a compelling argument to sign Bellinger without even considering his 1B ability.  Though that 1B ability may still be relevant/useful depending on other moves.

[chibears55]

They had a very good July and August that gave them a shot at the postseason but lack of depth and injuries brought them down in the final month. 

I dont expect them to do a whole lot this offseason and will mainly look in-house (prospects) as additions to the roster along with low cost/years options via FA and trades.  Ross will be back for at least 1 more season and we'll probably be looking at close to the same results record wise.

[Derwood]

Though the team performed slightly above expectations, I hope Hoyer sees that this was more or less the ceiling for this roster. The team isn't going to take the next step with a little bit of tinkering. Happy/Seiya/Hoerner/Dansby is a solid start, but you've GOT to make a splash at MULTIPLE positions

[squally1313]

43 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

One thing I've been thinking about the last couple weeks is that we have two years of data on Seiya in RF now and while it's not a particular problem, he's not been a strong defensive asset.  Given that PCA has demonstrated he is not going to be ready to carry an every day offensive load from opening day(and while I hope not, possibly not ever) and no entrenched DH option on the roster, I think you can make a compelling argument to sign Bellinger without even considering his 1B ability.  Though that 1B ability may still be relevant/useful depending on other moves.

Bellinger is an incredibly easy to like dude, and I think most people here actually watched enough of him to see the value/skills he brings that may not necessary show up in the advanced stats. But, at the end of the day the advanced stats show a very different/worse hitter than what we got out of him. His xwOBA was 7th on the team for guys with 250+ PAs, behind names like Morel, Tauchman, even Wisdom. I'm willing to give him some of that wOBA-xwOBA difference based on two strike approach, etc. But it's still a 39 point gap. 

And then ultimately, I just don't like paying top dollar for a dude and then limiting the value he can give you. He's a good defender at a premium position. Totally fine giving him the money and parking PCA in AAA through the all star break and figuring it out from there. I think we can find some version of Bellinger's bat that can play first for a fraction of what he's going to get on the market, and we have enough other holes that it wouldn't be how I spent the money. 

[Derwood]

Bellinger certainly got a lot of base hits on weak-ish grounders that magically found gaps in the infield. I'm sure his average/OBP drops several points if that was normalized

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Bellinger is an incredibly easy to like dude, and I think most people here actually watched enough of him to see the value/skills he brings that may not necessary show up in the advanced stats. But, at the end of the day the advanced stats show a very different/worse hitter than what we got out of him. His xwOBA was 7th on the team for guys with 250+ PAs, behind names like Morel, Tauchman, even Wisdom. I'm willing to give him some of that wOBA-xwOBA difference based on two strike approach, etc. But it's still a 39 point gap. 

And then ultimately, I just don't like paying top dollar for a dude and then limiting the value he can give you. He's a good defender at a premium position. Totally fine giving him the money and parking PCA in AAA through the all star break and figuring it out from there. I think we can find some version of Bellinger's bat that can play first for a fraction of what he's going to get on the market, and we have enough other holes that it wouldn't be how I spent the money. 

I'm not signing Bellinger to be the 135 wRC+  guy he was this year, though I think he'll be a whole lot closer to that than his xwOBA.

As for the defensive value bit, to me it comes down to the fact that his flexibility carries a lot of value too, being able to put out a better lineup day in and day out.  I'm not saying those are equivalent, but considering Bellinger's age I'm not worried about the potential problem of him playing RF or 1B more often if PCA is good.  The if being the operating thing here, because after his call up there should be little expectation that PCA is playing every day prior til Memorial Day or so, and even that carries risk.  I'm not gonna pass on a potential stud 28 y/o FA you have a QO & familiarity advantage in signing because he might be a little expensive for his production *if* another prospect pans out.

[UMFan83]

Positives:

-Our starting MI combined for 10 bWAR and are locked up for the next 3(?) years

-Seiya finally turned the corner and turned into a major offensive contributor and did it for a long enough period that there is some confidence that he's closer to that Seiya (though not quite at that level obviously) than the Seiya we saw the first 1.5 seasons

-Steele, Assad, Wicks all crushed it this year.  Maybe there isn't an ace in the group but they should all be valuable contributors to next year's team

-They Cubs finally managed to extend a position player from the previous core and he wasn't half that bad.

-Alzolay finally reached potential and turned into a really good closer.  Maybe not top tier, but if his walk rate this year is legit he'll be a very reasonably priced closer again next year.

-While we still don't know what we have in them guys like Morel, Madrigal and Mastrobuoni proved that they can be counted on for some degree of production

-Amaya after injury riddled years was a nice surprise even if his hitting fell off the second half of the season.  He has a shot to be catcher of the future after hopefully 1 more Yan season.

Only gonna focus on positives right now maybe I'll come back and do negatives later

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm not signing Bellinger to be the 135 wRC+  guy he was this year, though I think he'll be a whole lot closer to that than his xwOBA.

As for the defensive value bit, to me it comes down to the fact that his flexibility carries a lot of value too, being able to put out a better lineup day in and day out.  I'm not saying those are equivalent, but considering Bellinger's age I'm not worried about the potential problem of him playing RF or 1B more often if PCA is good.  The if being the operating thing here, because after his call up there should be little expectation that PCA is playing every day prior til Memorial Day or so, and even that carries risk.  I'm not gonna pass on a potential stud 28 y/o FA you have a QO & familiarity advantage in signing because he might be a little expensive for his production *if* another prospect pans out.

I think if you sign Bellinger, you seriously explore trading PCA to 'cheaply' fill another hole and pencil Bellinger in center for the next 5 years. If you split the difference on wOBA and xwOBA, which is probably generous, he's a 350 guy, and 10 first basemen (with over 250 PAs) met or exceeded that. We need a guy or two that can mash, and we need somewhere to put him. Bellinger is a very good baseball player, but a good amount is tied to his defense and he's just not going to give you that elite offense (and neither is anyone else in our lineup currently). Let him give us that value in centerfield or look elsewhere. 

It's a 'good problem' to have, in that PCA is projected to be more than a platoon player and Bellinger and Suzuki both should be playing against everyone too. But I don't think you can or should platoon your way into keeping all of them.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think if you sign Bellinger, you seriously explore trading PCA to 'cheaply' fill another hole and pencil Bellinger in center for the next 5 years. If you split the difference on wOBA and xwOBA, which is probably generous, he's a 350 guy, and 10 first basemen (with over 250 PAs) met or exceeded that. We need a guy or two that can mash, and we need somewhere to put him. Bellinger is a very good baseball player, but a good amount is tied to his defense and he's just not going to give you that elite offense (and neither is anyone else in our lineup currently). Let him give us that value in centerfield or look elsewhere. 

It's a 'good problem' to have, in that PCA is projected to be more than a platoon player and Bellinger and Suzuki both should be playing against everyone too. But I don't think you can or should platoon your way into keeping all of them.

Only 6 RF were > .350, one of them being Seiya.  If PCA hits enough to force the issue, you play Bellinger in RF(his arm strength is 86th percentile) and DH Seiya more, not worry about it when an OF has a knock or needs rest, etc.  Bellinger being able to eat up 15-20 games at 1B as needed is a bonus.  I can see the argument for trading PCA instead of Morel(who unless he spends all winter improving his hands at 3B is the loser in this scenario), but I don't think the presence of Bellinger necessitates a trade of PCA for value reasons.  Only 27 qualified hitters had a > 125 wRC+ this year, only 44 if you loosen to 400+ PA.  If you can add/keep one of them, you do it to stack good players and enjoy the deeper offense until some inevitable amount of misfortune(injury, PCA's failure) makes the positional inefficiency irrelevant.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Only 6 RF were > .350, one of them being Seiya.  If PCA hits enough to force the issue, you play Bellinger in RF(his arm strength is 86th percentile) and DH Seiya more, not worry about it when an OF has a knock or needs rest, etc.  Bellinger being able to eat up 15-20 games at 1B as needed is a bonus.  I can see the argument for trading PCA instead of Morel(who unless he spends all winter improving his hands at 3B is the loser in this scenario), but I don't think the presence of Bellinger necessitates a trade of PCA for value reasons.  Only 27 qualified hitters had a > 125 wRC+ this year, only 44 if you loosen to 400+ PA.  If you can add/keep one of them, you do it to stack good players and enjoy the deeper offense until some inevitable amount of misfortune(injury, PCA's failure) makes the positional inefficiency irrelevant.

In a vacuum none of that is wrong, but you also have to consider the opportunity cost of stacking those good/not quite elite hitters. Eventually the problem will work itself out (see Castro/Baez/Russell), but in the meantime you've spent, what, half your FA budget on Bellinger where the plan if everyone plays well is to bump Bellinger and Suzuki down the defensive spectrum. I'd love to have the three of them challenging each other for ABs and giving our DH production a boost. But I think I'd prefer Bellinger in center, Suzuki in right, Canario backing them up, and, say, Eury Perez or Pablo Lopez (to pick two starters with a lower trade value than PCA) in the rotation. Or passing on Belli, trusting that PCA can be CF Hoerner, and grabbing Yamamoto/the best pitcher out there and then some cheaper corner infield bats. The pitching is too much of a mess to be able to afford that kind of crowded outfield luxury, basically. 

[gocubs218]

I expect two of guys like Canario, Alcantara, Triontos and Caissie to not be in the organization next year. Now is the time to use the minor league you built over the past two years and flip them into major league proven talent. We don’t have room for all those guys, especially if we think Shaw will be up at some point in 2024. I’ve seen Jose Ramirez floated around on twitter, he would be the dream scenario for me. I am sure other names will be rumored abound but it would sure be nice to have an Arenado or Goldschmidt type become available and fall into our laps like it did for the Cardinals. There are other ways to make splashes other than spending money. 

[Cuzi]

They won more games that I expected them to, but meh. We won a whopping 83 games and got eliminated from the playoffs by a team with a -56 run differential. Bust out the party horns!

Taillon was the mediocre pitcher we thought he was at signing, easily worse than expected.

Bellinger had a surprisingly good offensive year, but thanks for playing and good luck in the future.

We have SS/2B locked up now so we can cross one need off the copy paste list from the last few years.

Suzuki's batted ball profile finally shut up the haters thinking he was a bad hitter.

The record shows progress, but some of the main positives to the season wont be back and the 2021 and 2022 FA classes are a thing of the past. You look at this teams needs and you are just left wondering where they are going to fill them. I'm sure Chapman is probably at the top of their list for 3B, but he became one of the best FA's in this class with a big chunk of the others signing extensions, so are the Cubs going to get scared on the price? What is the plan at 1B? Are they actually going to let Mervis play or send him down because his 110mph line drives aren't finding outfield grass? Is PCA starting the season in AAA and Mike freaking Tauchman going to be the starting CF? Who is the ace of the pitching staff? Who is the pitcher that's coming out of the bullpen to lock horsefeathers down? Is Hoyer finally going to stop hoarding prospects and make some legitimate trades?

There's still so many priority questions that need to be answered before opening day to feel any kind of optimism about this franchise going forward.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Cuzi

[CubinNY]

7 hours ago, Cuzi said:

 

Taillon was the mediocre pitcher we thought he was at signing, easily worse than expected.

 

Who are we? His performance for the first half of the season is inexplicable given his history. And he had a great ST. I expect he's going to be better next year. I hope they shame him into getting into better shape. 

I worry more about Steele next year and he will be 29. He's a guy I would package in a deal for someone. 

[squally1313]

Generally confused by him saying 'Taillon was who we thought he was' and also 'he pitched way worse than expected' in the same sentence. 

 

[BigbadB]

I had them at 85 wins. I expected better from Taillon. I didn't anticipate the Stroman injury. I felt Hendricks would be better overall on his return. I also didn't see the bullpen being so injured and MIA. 

This team really should have been in the playoffs, but......

I feel like Ross isn't the guy to take a young team to the next level. 

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

I had them at 85 wins. I expected better from Taillon. I didn't anticipate the Stroman injury. I felt Hendricks would be better overall on his return. I also didn't see the bullpen being so injured and MIA. 

This team really should have been in the playoffs, but......

I feel like Ross isn't the guy to take a young team to the next level. 

You expected Hendricks to be better than what he was? I feel that is very unrealistic expectations. He did very well. If anything I feel he outperformed what most thought he would do. IMO this team would have made the playoffs but for the pen just falling apart. Still wouldn’t have been a great team. But they would have won a few more games down the stretch. Still work to be done for 24’ but if TR and Hoyer believe this team is a playoff team and spend money accordingly I feel they should be better next year.